patrick.net

Awesome Logan, best of luck with it! Report back to us after the conference.

So when will the fed tighten interest rates :-)

BayArea says

So when will the fed tighten interest rates :-)

I like my model of 2.5% core and 4% ECI wage inflation to get any rate hike cycle going.. but.. December is in play...

It's not going to be driven by data, data is going to slow and steady util the next decade but inflation will make them move...

Still not enough to get them going yet.. Maybe December but after that.. follow inflation!

Janet is a JOLTS lady, rule of thumb

U6 under 10% and U3 Under 5% gets the wage inflation process started but not enough yet to get the Fed going

The trump recessions will mean deflation for a decade.

Followed by either the Hunger Games or Cannibal Anarchy!

nirvana-ish

Logan Mohtashami says

The most important data line for new home sales is that median price is falling this is the single most demand bullish data line of the cycle right now, make shift in sales prices leads to higher volume, the * in all my predictions article

builders getting some confidence in younger / first-time buyers?

landtof says

builders getting some confidence in younger / first-time buyers?

they cycle was so one sided that any movement of growth from under 400K group would impact these lower level sales but would send lower the median sales price.

This cycle is very unique in that aspect, so the falling price has to be explained in that manner

Last month's report
https://loganmohtashami.com/2016/08/23/solid-new-home-sales-print/

8% growth year over year in homes between 200K-300K

that kind of data trend is needed because once you start from 675K-775K you don't have the low bar thesis anymore for sales and you need to earn it. So, growth on the lower end needs to happen,

landtof says

nirvana-ish

Ivy Zelman: I think we're in nirvana for #housing. I'm the most bullish I've ever been. @cnbcfastmoney
9:18 AM - 7 Mar 2013

Ivy Zelman:

1/15/2015

Last year was disappointing, but favorable conditions remain. "We had expected 15% to 20% starts growth and it turned out to be flat." Housing starts will keep growing at 15% compound annual growth rate through the end of the decade.

This year she made a video now trying to explain why the builders aren't building as much

As much as I had a better sales demand call that she did since 2013

The housing start thesis was the real winner because that was something everyone thought we would hit 1.5 million shortly and we can't break 1.2 million yet and now you lost steam with multifamily housing

"Housing Roof Being Tested"

https://loganmohtashami.com/2016/09/20/housing-starts-roof-being-tested/

Logan Mohtashami says

Last year was disappointing, but favorable conditions remain.

True, but i am still disappointed.
1. I expected median OC prices to increase 10%+ in 2016, but so far it is only running at a 6.5% rate. :(
2. I expected new home sales to be a lot higher than it is now. :(
3. I expected the economy to be growing at a 3% rate in 2016. :(

How am i gonna be rich if this continues? :(

Strategist says

3. I expected the economy to be growing at a 3% rate in 2016. :(

I had 1.9%-2.3% for 2016

Consumption is good, but domestic investment was going to be light this year

When money is not sound, all kinds of data are created to influence people's perception and behavior. Logan is here to explain all of those data for those who are not sure what those numbers are. When the money become sound, everything is simplified and Logan is no longer needed to explain those to anybody any more. Because things do become simple and honest.

JZ says

When money is not sound,

Code for Ludwig von Mises

Theory-of-Money-and-Credit-

1912 right when that was published 1953 it was The Return to Sound Money,

I always found it amusing watching Austrian vs MMT ... 2 bastard children of economics fighting each other on line

I have found it is amusing and unfortunate that so many people are forced to pay attention to economics which created a bunch of people like Logan to tell people what those economic number mean. People should pay attention to their skills and make improvement on productivity. Oh, right, sharpen your skills and do actual work is useless now adays when there are so much money slushing around to wreck people's lives. So paying attention to taking heads may save them.

JZ says

I have found it is amusing and unfortunate that so many people are forced to pay attention to economics which created a bunch of people like Logan to tell people what those economic number mean. People should pay attention to their skills and make improvement on productivity. Oh, right, sharpen your skills and do actual work is useless now adays when there are so much money slushing around to wreck people's lives. So paying attention to taking heads may save them.

Spoken like a true Austrian that has been wrong for more than 100 years

Thanks, Logan. Keep going.

Waiting for Realtor's to die off....

If you're truly balanced in economic discussions then these 2 should disagree with you

Or something like this