patrick.net

Logan Mohtashami says

tatupu70 says

Only in your strawman of me.

So, this means you're not in Serf thesis then correct? and can I take you away from a 1929 deflationary spiral thesis as well?

Awesome

Welcome to Team Logan!!

Don't take him Logan. He is a spy.

NuttBoxer says

How does math support an economic model with a currency backed by nothing,

Sure is funny how when the dollar rose it took all those one trick pony economies who export and debase into a dizzy... ask the BOJ about the dollar now

I just bought an another house and will buy more. Even if you bring the Harry Dent's of the world or Peter Schiff's of the world together, one thing is for certain, if America goes down, then the world goes down and there will be no one in a better place. I do not wish to live in fear and will continue on the path that America albeit its problems is still the best place to invest in. What may come or may not come should not dictate continous doom and gloom. Hell, even in depression you can make wealth if you are focused on opportunities than ammo, gold and lake accidents. So stupid there is no word to describe that mentality. I am still on Team Logan and will continue to be on it.

Strategist says

The US dollar is backed by the production capacity of the US. It garners more confidence than any other currency on the planet.

I think the US dollar is actually backed far more in recent years, not by our production, but our huge military spending and political stability. That's kind of been eroding some though.

Manufacturing ...
http://www.businessinsider.com/markit-flash-manufacturing-pmi-may-23-2016-5
Everything sideways and probably some ticks down coming.

Housing starts being goosed ...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/truth-housing-starts-april-2016-160341415.html

If history doesn't repeat itself, but rhyme, what comes next?

Logan Mohtashami says

Shocking!

You find it shocking that people aren't making far flung predictions toward serfdom in the short term? That's kind of a strange expectation to hold. Why would you think that?

Serfs aren't coming, but some sell-offs and a hiccup or two sure are likely at these heights, by my read. USA cheerleading is only going to get you so far, at this point, Logan.

tatupu70 says

badges from your conference or a screen shot of your name on CNBC.

You forget all my Interviews on Bloomberg Financial, remember I have done the U.S. Housing Market Preview for the Up coming year for Bloomberg 2014-2016

Not to mention speaking at the BNY Mellon Stock Conference with Bloomberg as well with Kathleen Hays, some of you market people know who I am talking about

Bad choice of color for T.V. I admit

Rew says

USA cheerleading is only going to get you so far, at this point, Logan

This is why I am keeping this entire thread for 2020 post recession recovery to show that the extreme left if they believe in serfs will be just as wrong as the hyper inflation right

Because you're starting from I need to find flaws about America to fit my economic ideology

Piece by piece name by name ...

All I have to do is wait... nothing less and nothing more for the next recession and recovery stage

This Pizza fight you guys do here Right Vs Left has made you guys way too wild on some of your economic theory...

HadEnough says

I just bought an another house and will buy more. Even if you bring the Harry Dent's of the world or Peter Schiff's of the world together, one thing is for certain, if America goes down, then the world goes down and there will be no one in a better place. I do not wish to live in fear and will continue on the path that America albeit its problems is still the best place to invest in. What may come or may not come should not dictate continous doom and gloom. Hell, even in depression you can make wealth if you are focused on opportunities than ammo, gold and lake accidents. So stupid there is no word to describe that mentality. I am still on Team Logan and will continue to be on it.

I totally agree. I'm not going to live in fear, but I'll take when the taking is good. I don't count myself on team Logan. I have general optimism in America long term, but more pessimism in current markets and trends now though.

It's not most of your fault, not many people track economic data for a living.

So, it's easy to pick pocket false economic theories .... cycles come and go.. picked the wrong country in 2016 time frame to predict doom and gloom

We are going to kick the worlds ass in the next 20 years ...

All that will be left are whispers in the wind in some dark malice Forrest about some doom and gloom over that 20 Trillion Dollar 160 Million Plus Working U.S. economy in the next cycle

No Utopia economy out there... but there is one economy

that has King Dollar and also for mature economy has the best demographics on prime age labor face. The main thing that I believe would keep this cycle tamed is going to change in a few years. 2008-2019 was a light demographic patch year, unlike the 1980's and 1990's

No economy grows great forever, but again.. bad time to get super bearish on the U.S.

We will have a recession but the recovery cycle will happen quickly ...

We have an outside shot to post 11 years of economic growth making this a remarkable cycle of expansion while the world has issue...

We only import deflationary factors, we don't import inflation or recession

#USA

In a few years you will see what I mean once the recession is done.. no deflationary collapse, no breakdown on the U.S. economy

Peter's World collapse wouldn't happen

Dent 2nd Great Depression won't happen

and America will strive on as the best domestic economy world for a country of its size while other country have demographic deflationary factors to deal with!

Logan Mohtashami says

It's not most of your fault, not many people track economic data for a living.

And when they do, they can shockingly get it so wrong, like 2000 (dot come crash) and 2008 (housing).

You could be right Logan, the simple thing is I'm not going to be sad to turn dollar signs on paper/screen into actual dollars and stability for myself and family. I'm about to buy myself a whole world of freedom I've never known. I'll likely be able to change my occupation into something more frivolous, risky, and fun as well.

Logan Mohtashami says

In a few years you will see what I mean once the recession is done..

We aren't in a recession.
I'm not predicting any major crash, I'm just not predicting smooth sailing in the next 4 years. This doesn't read to continue in my mind.

Logan Mohtashami says

We will have a recession but the recovery cycle will happen quickly ...

Wait, what? So you agree? Sell on/before the dip, and buy in the height of the fear, right?
I don't see us in height of fear territory yet. For me, it's profit taking time. Especially with what I'm holding. :)

Logan Mohtashami says

We are going to kick the worlds ass in the next 20 years ...

You mean we will be kick ass for 20 years, continuous, starting now? Or we are going to be in a place in 20 years where we are kicking ass?

I think Logan is a secret bear right now too. :)

Rew says

Wait, what? So you agree? Sell on/before the dip, and buy in the height of the fear, right?

I get it, this is an investment club..

So I threw a few bones out with

HP
UNXL
My biggest and only investment stock MASI
ATEN
and now building a position in TWTR

So, the total market itself.

Look at me in this light, I will give you the economic data breakdown for when the first level recession flag comes up

But the market.. she is old.. but she still has some legs left.

Longest duration period in not breaking into new highs, the strong dollar did it's impact but earnings are coming back.. need to see a break out in Q4 2016 or Q1 because we should get some upside surprises after oil stopped going down and now has a 80% + rally from the lows

Oh dear:

New comment by FP in Team Logan vs Team Depression Serfs:
indigenous says

Hard to say but certainly accurate sentiment on the sign.

Welcome to my ignore list of patent imbeciles.

Why is that the Socialists, the party of the people, are so intolerant?

Just Remember:

Strategist says

The US dollar is backed by the production capacity of the US. It garners more confidence than any other currency on the planet.

NuttBoxer says

all production of physical products shipped overseas,

Also, comparing trash to trash still gives you...

NuttBoxer says

NuttBoxer says

all production of physical products shipped overseas,

It's not true. It's not even a myth. It's a bizarre claim I have never heard before.

Logan Mohtashami says

I get it, this is an investment club..

I'm just an individual. I'm flattered, but I think that ego makes you think you are talking to important people here on PNet. (wink)
Market news is so positive today, my holdings popped out of their little doldrums (just over 4% gain in 6 days). I'm itching to put in a stop loss floor, but think I'm going to wait just a touch more. I think I might see a little waver down and back and don't won't an early sell.

Logan Mohtashami says

Look at me in this light, I will give you the economic data breakdown for when the first level recession flag comes up

Thank you, but it won't help me maximize and protect what I currently hold. I only 'trust' the investment brokers who actually take a cut of the funds they are managing for me. Incentives you know.

Rew says

Market news is so positive today, my holdings popped out of their little doldrums (just over 4% gain in 6 days). I'm itching to put in a stop loss floor, but think I'm going to wait just a touch more. I think I might see a little waver down and back and don't won't an early sell.

Don't gamble with your home, and don't gamble with your retirement funds. It's what your mother would tell you, and she is right.

Strategist says

It's not true. It's not even a myth. It's a bizarre claim I have never heard before.

What rock have you been hiding under? NAFTA, now TPP. Not even Harley is made in the US anymore. Turn over any product in your home and look for the "Made in China" sticker.

NuttBoxer says

Turn over any product in your home and look for the "Made in China" sticker.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/07/ivanka-trump-scarves-made-in-china-recalled.html

However only in the last year or two did China surpass the US, and considering how much the Yuan is manipulated it is dubious that they did surpass the US in manufacturing.

junkmail says

Best to leave him alone he's imagining he has an audience of fools.

This is great idea

A bunch of liberals who can't read economic data properly hiding behind fake names

Compared to a guy if you google his name has tons and I means tons of economic data and actual data mining

It's going to be a honor destroying the extreme left as it has been destroying the extreme right

best part is

You will know who did this to you!

His Name was Logan Mohtashami

A man who only believed in math, facts and data and despises demogoues

This is a war I want... It's time of the extreme left to get the same treatment the extreme right has!

I am here for 20 plus years...

I suggest you guys revise your tone about depression, deflation and any other new normal thesis

Days of lying about economics is done on this site

Think of me as a economic Zoro Not Zero Hedge

Rew says

I'm itching to put in a stop loss floor, but think I'm going to wait just a touch more. I think I might see a little waver down and back and don't won't an early sell.

Why are you putting a stop loss on an index or anything short term investment you have unless you're channel trading, which is 100% different what we are talking about

I am talking about economic cycles = business cycles , when that ends

Logan Mohtashami says

bunch of liberals who can't read economic data properly hiding behind fake names

This exemplifies your ignorance.
I've been on this site for many years. Back then your user name was automatically extracted from everything before the @ sign in your login email. I don't like rubbish in my email so I have an account called junkmail that I use so online spammers can have their 15 minutes of sunshine. That is where the user name has come from. I was lazy and didn't change it, so it stuck. So it's not 'made-up' and I'm not 'hiding'. You are wrong on both accounts. (Not the first time I'll warrant).

In retrospect, I'm glad I didn't change it to my real name because I don't need freaks like you trolling me on google, between jacking off, while waiting for the phone to ring in your Orange County office.

You might think, wow, been a member on so long and so few comments? That's because I only open my mouth when I have something to say AND because I'm retired at 52. So I don't spend a lot of time on here crossing swords with fools like you who think they can see the future in a graph that depicts the past.

I'm not a liberal, I'm independent, always have been. (Wrong again)

See here Logan... it's this rush to judgement and massive generalizations that make me wonder if you really are a good (woops almost said analyst) Loan Officer who THINKS he's an analyst! Your mind is obviously closed and everything you say and do on this site only proves the point more.

Funnily enough I DID google your name (seeing u asked)
Logan Mohtashami:
Degree: History and Chinese History? Hey Logan... any FORMAL training in Finance?
Frustrated Loan Officer. Has delusions of financial, demigod/analyst.
Suffering from a sever case of narcissism broken only by small periods of massive self promotion. Exhibits the classic symptoms of acute Iranian/Lebanese, middle eastern, male machismo. Talks alot, (mostly to himself) rarely listens. Likes to play with photoshop and insert heads on naked bodies of a younger self. Seriously? Who does that? Have you ever masturbated to your own picture? Odds are great, I could show you a graph of the probabilities. Possibly why there is no Mrs. Logan Mohtashami (apparently) hard to find her on google under mountains of self-promotion.

Becomes crestfallen when not listed at top 35 sexiest financial people in the world (see Logan pop up in the comment section below this really dumb link)
Seriously... who actually googles sexiest people in their profession?
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-40-sexiest-financial-journalists-2013-7#now-meet-the-sexiest-people-in-finance-36

You were a basketball coach up until 2000.
So you stepped into the greatest market housing market EVER on the day it took off.
Well it's no wonder you think you're the shit and everything just keeps getting better. You lack true experience (post 2000) of hard times in your industry.
The fact you have had such success (apart from the character flaws listed above) can be attributed, in a great part, to luck. Yep timing... you got a lot lucky.

There are a lot of really smart people on this site, I have learned a lot from them. I got VERY luck and I'm done working. Perhaps as you grow up (didn't say get older I hope you noticed) you will see there are many opinions here you won't find anywhere else. Most are here because their eyes are open. You may never meet them because of stupid straw man posts like this one where you seem to post the majority of the posts yourself and only lure out the ones you already think are here. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy.

(Just realized that probably sounds pretty good to a narcissist)

junkmail says

(Just realized that probably sounds pretty good to a narcissist)

Keep on talking

This is what I want

I want you guys to search my name like you guys have done today, because I can see it

I am going to destroy your false economic theories Piece by Piece

So everyone reading Patrick.net who doesn't talk will know that the extreme left and right have brought on demogoues economic in to this discussion

Lack discipline

And they hide behind their fake names

Deal with it because it just the start

junkmail says

Frustrated Loan Officer. Has delusions of financial, demigod/analyst.

Yup that's me, living in Irvine CA, own 2 homes in So Cal, Drive a Mercedes all paid off

Why don't you put your real name out here and lets see who you're

Any of you lets see if you have the guts to man up????

Or hide behind your fake names ...

Only Roberto and Gary Anderson have done this... I give them Kudos for it

Bring it ....

junkmail says

You were a basketball coach up until 2000

Yup In 1994 I coached High School Basketball at age 19 up to 2,000

Got into the mortgage business in 1996 age 21

https://www.linkedin.com/in/logan-mohtashami-5167631?trk=nav_responsive_tab_profile

I am not sure you guys actually work here on Patrick.net hence why none of you show up on Linkeden

Remember Piece by Piece

You're deflationary spiral, serf thesis, new normal, all the junk I have heard for the Anti American Bears both from the left and right has failed, badly

all your readers will know who is the only person who actually tracks data for a living!

It's going to be a fun next 20 years!!!

Bait Bait Bait... and you all took it

junkmail says

Possibly why there is no Mrs. Logan Mohtashami (apparently)

Speaking of the Mrs. Married August 26, 2011

Thank you for asking. :-)

junkmail says

(Just realized that probably sounds pretty good to a narcissist)

Thank you so much this post!

Kudos, Bravo, good job sir!

That's what I want to see, some fire out of you guys

Logan Mohtashami says

That's what I want to see, some fire out of you guys

Logan, you sound just like every other sell side analyst. Really, try to limit your posts to 10 a day. It's looks like spam now.

tr6 says

Logan, you sound just like every other sell side analyst. Really, try to limit your posts to 10 a day. It's looks like spam now.

Run the numbers on how many post I do compared to everyone else, I am on the bottom because I really only post when I write an article Outside of 5 other posts in 3 years

Plus, I have to answer back, look at all the research Junkmail did, he took the bait, come on, I have to give him kudos on that

Logan Mohtashami says

Drive a Mercedes

That would have been a useful piece of info if I hadn't already concluded that you are an idiot.

Here is your horrible U.S. economy you guys bad mouth everyday

Keep it up and make my point all the more clear from your own words

That is what I want everyone to see

Math, Facts and Data matter, the rest is story telling

I can't wait for the boomers to drop dead so we can start the healing process on the shit this ass stupid generation has left behind for the rest. Worst generation of all times. I will buy the Mercedes in auction during the estate sale. Fuckers die already.

HadEnough says

Fuckers die already.

If you look at all data over age 55

It's been a net positive only due to demographics... A lot leave and a lot stay

But they can't work forever

Our kids are going to be fine, those who get educated, Work hard like Bernie Sanders says, and fight... the ones who beg and cry everyday and believe they're entitled to something

Hard Rocky Road ahead

The old can linger for a while but they can't work forever.

#USA

Don't bet against this country

Yup....^ this. Sooner the leeches move on America will be on its way to recovery.

A better long term bad economic thesis that has many data points to turn to

- growing older population isn't ready for retirement

A. Work longer
B. Need help from their children

This can take away disposable income to a degree off the certain consumption items for sure

Clap Clap Clap...

I thank you guys for taking the bait on this...

See, this is last post until the next recession/recovery cycle comes 2019-2022 time frame

Now, you're reduced back to your Anti American talk that most of you talk about every day.... my lord... what happened here...
You would think after posting 1,000 charts here that you would have learned something... but.. no...

You just want to complain for the sake of complaining

See you all once the data line gets positive from the recession lows. that's when the tear down will start .

Follow claims
Follow LEI
Follow over investment thesis on debt
JOLTS data have a 12 month trend negative baseline before the recession

Don't allow the ideology to defeat you!

Fight! Be Strong and Brave and don't allow the darkness to make you think this country is weak

We are the best domestic economy in the world, because our people kick ass and they don't beg, they work!

Now back to your bickering fights!