patrick.net

Please don't.

Picking stocks is a fool's errand. Index funds only.

I'm mostly looking at sectors and indexes.

BayArea says

What Stock Market Investments Are You Making in 2016?

The stock market will take off. Real Estate will take off. Who wants to get rich with me?
95% of my investments are:
Real Estate.
Home builder stocks - ITB
S&P 500

Single Company trading

TWTR

( building a position there)

UNXL
MASI
-
HP
- mostly out
ATEN

GPRO ( recently)

Long term portfolio

85% stocks

50% U.S
25% International
10% MASI

10% bonds
5% Reits

Only single stock investment MASI

Flipping overpriced shacks is the only path to wealth.
There's always a sucker buyer.

Logan Mohtashami says

GPRO ( recently)

Logan, thanks for sharing. GPRO is an interesting one. I've wondered if the 82% 1-yr decline is justified. On one hand the company is showing slowing growth and increased competition but on the other hand it's a wildly powerful brand and it's got it's heals already dug into the virtual reality space.

Also, I think you may be a little equity heavy with where the market currently resides...

BayArea says

I've wondered if the 82% 1-yr decline is justified.

Yes, it's a hardware company only, at $9 dollars it has value, stop loss $7.25 only looking here for the Pre Holiday day push and the Drone release

That's it BayArea says

Also, I think you may be a little stock heavy with where the market currently resides...

I never ever change the long term portfolio because I add every month to it, recession are the gift of the Gods

85% stocks peak 60% is the low limit if I change anything

Always in, never out, trading accounts different beast all together

I've also been looking at the drone space...

There is a recent etf that's focused on all things drone, might be worth a look: IFLY (GPRO makes up 3%)

Strategist says

95% of my investments are:

Real Estate.

Home builder stocks - ITB

S&P 500

Isn't the old adage, "buy low, sell high"?

BayArea says

might be worth a look: IFLY (GPRO makes up 3%)

Push near Christmas they delayed the launch prepping for that... at this point stop loss protects

Only play I see here

And what are you hoping happens with TWTR?

That was a long steep ride down since Jan '14... I think its speculative platform for commerce isn't likely to be realized

BayArea says

And what are you hoping happens with TWTR?

Cash Flow is strong here, $14-17 it's worth a trade

Valuation makes it not cheap market cap wise.. However, bad news has pushed it any lower from the recent lows

That was a awful quarter reported and still couldn't break it down..

No stop loss here though as this one I would pick up more

Love the product but most of the IPO's have been garbage in this cycle

I would tend to avoid gold, and other precious metals in a rising interest rate environment.

Booger says

I would tend to avoid gold, and other precious metals in a rising interest rate environment

Higher interest rates tend to take precious metal commodity money and instead flow it into newly higher yielding bonds. But the historic correlations aren't very strong.

I had gopro sold it after making 30% profit.
I had twtr, sold it after losing 20%

Don't see any niche with gopro... you can buy chinese knockoff, 90% of the features of gopro for 25% of the price..

Johny says

you can buy chinese knockoff, 90% of the features of gopro for 25% of the price..

I keep going back and forth with GPRO... It sells products that are considered to be best in class, but like you said, are they 4x better than the next best thing? Hardly.

Similar to Nikon and Canon, improvements in smartphone camera capability have done it's share to reduce demand for GPRO.

BayArea says

Similar to Nikon and Canon, improvements in smartphone camera capability have done it's share to reduce demand for GPRO.

At $20-$70 it's very expensive

because it's really a hardware company...

Always fluff in any cycle

MASI my favorite pick just hit a new all time high today! :-)

BayArea says

Johny says

you can buy chinese knockoff, 90% of the features of gopro for 25% of the price..

I keep going back and forth with GPRO... It sells products that are considered to be best in class, but like you said, are they 4x better than the next best thing? Hardly.

Similar to Nikon and Canon, improvements in smartphone camera capability have done it's share to reduce demand for GPRO.

Wont be long before all the Gopro technology and more will be incorporated into the iPhone.

Logan Mohtashami says

MASI my favorite pick just hit a new all time high today! :-)

In that case, you get to buy the beer.

Strategist says

In that case, you get to buy the beer.

Yardhouse 8:00PM I will be there if you will...

Big bock of shares at 19.90 20.61 and 21.26 I can afford you 3 drinks a uber ride home

Logan Mohtashami says

MASI my favorite pick just hit a new all time high today! :-)

At what point do you take your money and bail on MASI?

BayArea says

At what point do you take your money and bail on MASI?

I have sold at 40 , 44, 48 and going to sell some tomorrow at 52

I have another big block around 37.38

I invest some each month regardless of prices

It's 100% outperformed my expectation since they won the lawsuit against Phillps and got 487 million .

It's a keep but I have and will sell

BAC, JPM, GOOG, PG, COST

I don't day trade, I just buy and hold and hold and hold...

UNXl which shot from 40 cents to 2.76

Spec play sold at 1.70 - 2.69

Thesis for selling as I wrote as that they would have to do a secondary, so they did priced at 1.50 and got back again today, but much smaller position than what I started.

Playing with the house money now

52.12! MASI

Ok now I sound like a pusher here, I will stop ;-)

I need to take a look to see what the market has done historically during the 5mo leading up to an election...

Logan, lets take a look and compare notes.

BayArea says

I need to take a look to see what the market has done historically during the 5mo leading up to an election...

Logan, lets take a look and compare notes.

i heard somewhere it goes up during Presidential elections.

BayArea says

Logan, lets take a look and compare notes.

Break out to new highs and then we consolidate, regardless of the Presidential timing

2 Factors here

1. Oil crash is done, should get some revisions to the upside in Q4 2016 or Q1 2017

2. We are late in the economic cycle but the Fed hasn't needed to fight inflation and labor cost are rising but they can be managed for now.

Come on, guys. Probabilities. My opinion, For next 3 years, SP 500, 50% stay flat, 30% gain 10%, 20% lose 50%. Make your own decisions.

nolongerloveblack says

Come on, guys. Probabilities. My opinion, For next 3 years, SP 500, 50% stay flat, 30% gain 10%, 20% lose 50%. Make your own decisions.

For the next 3 years:
50% chance gain 40%
50% chance gain 25%

Strategist says

For the next 3 years:

50% chance gain 40%

50% chance gain 25%

Remember when I told you to get back into the Builders and KB Homes in Late Jan - Feb! would have been a nice additional add on to the portfolio

Logan Mohtashami says

Remember when I told you to get back into the Builders and KB Homes in Late Jan - Feb! would have been a nice additional add on to the portfolio

That you did. Home builders have finally started their move. There is no stopping it now.

Ironman says

nolongerloveblack says

stay flat,

The market has been flat since the Fall of 2014. There's a few here that drink the kool-aid and expect new highs with nothing to support it except ZIRP.

It's time for the next move up. Don't you want to get rich?

Ironman says

Strategist says

It's time for the next move up. Don't you want to get rich?

Sure, show me the fundamentals that will make that happen.

Low rates
Recovering Economy
Lower unemployment
Housing recovery
End of Obama's term.

We will hit a all time high very soon

No #QE no #ZIRP No #NIRP

#USA

Ironman says

Strategist says

Low rates


Recovering Economy


Lower unemployment


Housing recovery


End of Obama's term.

Well, you got 2 out of 5 right.... That's a failing grade in Marcus' math class.

It's easy to get an "A" in Marcus' math class:
Obama for third term
Hillary for President
Bernie for President
More illegal immigration
Triple teacher salaries.

Actually, I misspoke, if you count div. we are at a all time high

In terms of the economic theme that could give the cycle a slight push, as oil as risen, trade will look a bit better

Ticker symbol HP is the only oil play that I run on .. mid to low 40's is where I was pushing here, took some off at 57 now it's at 67, Let it ride.

Ironman says

Finally, you're admitting it.... took you long enough...

This is true, I should have said earlier counting Div. we are already at all time highs

arlp - sold too early right before it hit 15. I got in below 12 on average. I think the energy rally is not that strong.

nac - at this point it's way too high; it was a good buy last summer, You are betting that the FED will restart QE and start buy municipal bonds. If California goes into recession, I suspect this thing can sell off 20% easily. 4 years of yield.