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U.S. Housing Prices are Never Going to Down, But Humor Me...


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2016 Jun 20, 11:25am   11,529 views  45 comments

by exfatguy   ➕follow (0)   💰tip ($0.10 in tips)  

...theoretically, what could happen to make them go down and not be attractive to the worldwide investment community?

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9   NDrLoR   2016 Jun 20, 1:13pm  

YesYNot says

1. huge population shrinking event

1c. Gay men refusing to adapt their behaviors to avoid getting AIDS. In his book Sexual Ecology: AIDS and the Destiny of Gay Men, Gabriel Rotello explains how there have been "waves" during the 35 years history of AIDS: In the 80's, fear compelled gay men to avoid the promiscuous behaviors that reigned throughout the 70's where some men had 100 plus, even 1,000 partners a year. By the 90's, new AIDS cases abated and new drugs lulled them into thinking the plauge was under control, so they once again began having unsafe sex. He explains this in the context of evolution where over a period of time the most promiscuous men are the ones who end up dying and after a long enough series of these waves they could theoretically become extinct. They won't become extinct, though, because the heterosexual world will continue to supply new members to the group of gay men, but that will only perpetuate the plague unless they change their behaviors. Another interesting point he makes in the book is that in the late 80's and into the 90's there was the attempt by the gay lobby to promote the idea that before long AIDS would be just as prevelant in the heterosexual world as the gay world. A book written in 1993 by gay author Michael Fumento "The Myth of Heterosexual AIDS" made him a pariah among AIDS activists and the gay world in general, but his well-reasoned and prophetic thesis has proven to be true these 23 years later as it's obvious that AIDS has not become common in the heterosexual world except in what is called core groups of IDU's (intravaneous drug users) who also tend to have lots of sex within a closed group. As for heterosexual AIDS in Third World countries, that's due to many reasons involving poor access to medical help, poor hygiene, lots of drug use. Many men gravitate to urban centers, leaving their wives behind, and once there they hook up with the prostitutes. Another irony is that between Stonewall in 1969 and 1980, the first group of men who began dying of AIDS had levels of other STD's in their systems from the bachanalia of the 70's that resembled those of people in Third World countries, indeed the highest incidence in Western history.

10   curious2   2016 Jun 20, 1:51pm  

P N Dr Lo R says

Gay men

Cal, San Francisco has the highest housing prices in the country, several times higher than Waco. Also, you haven't answered my earlier question. If you are devoting so much time to this issue, and imagining that it would reduce housing prices, you are starting to sound like the Texas GOP, which said homosexuality is "shared by the majority of Texans." I wonder why you and they would believe that, unless y'all shared in it. Meanwhile, real estate data going back decades show that the arrival of gay couples lifts real estate values, at least in neighborhoods that support marriage equality. If your neighborhood opposes it, then you and Fortwhine/Forthood might be reducing the value of your neighbors' property - especially if you've continued pouring toxic waste illegally on your neighbors' boundary line.

In answer to the OP question, religious neighbors who dump toxic waste at the edge of your property can reduce housing values, because most people don't want to live next door to that. The arrival of dangerous neighbors, whether criminal gangs or religious nuts with assault weapons and toxic waste, can dramatically reduce property values.

11   Sharingmyintelligencewiththedumbasses   2016 Jun 20, 2:11pm  

YesYNot says

Here are some things to make housing go down across the country:

1. huge population shrinking event

1a. most likely antibiotic resistant microbes caused by factory farming and other antibiotic overuse

1b. nuclear war

2. teleportation

3. some other interesting technological transport advance

4. huge tech change or evolutionary change that makes telecommuting effective and accepted.

5. across the board financial disaster that results in persistent deflation. People in power will fight this tooth and nail.

6. like Rew said, some bubble type activity specific to housing, but the result will be temporary like last time and is not likely to be imminent.

As far as local changes go, that would be migration due to economic patterns that ruin local industry or environmental disaster or just general local mismanagement over a long period. There will be another Detroit 40 yrs from now, and Detroit may well come back. Do try to avoid sitting in a declining region if all of your chips are in your house.

Very intelligent response, so I'd like to add a few points:

Sudden population decrease:

For the US, Trump winning and actually having any success at deporting some of the 11 million or so illegals. The resulting vacancy rates in latino areas would have a domino knock on effect, and lower rents for sure in many cities. That would effect prices. Plus, add in the severe recession the rest of his shit-ass proposals and likely trade wars with Mexico and China will cause.

For predictable population declines, it is less sure. Italy has been below replacement birthrate for decades, and everybody knows Japan is on the cusp of serious population declines. Italy is somewhat offset by immigration, but that isn't the case in Japan. Even with very predictable population declines, real estate in Japan is simply not cheap. Not even in smaller cities.

In America, today, rents are increasing too, which makes today's prices very well supported by rent. So, it would take an actual recession, not just some financial issues, to stop price growths now. When your mortgage is less than rent, you don't sell when things get tough, you move out and rent it.

Individual cities could have different fates, like detroit or cleveland have had, but US wide, another price collapse is simply very unlikely, and anything serious enough to cause it, will take anything else you could invest in with it too.

12   NDrLoR   2016 Jun 20, 3:04pm  

curious2 says

San Francisco has the highest housing prices in the country,

Oh I realize that, but the mortality rate is far higher among active homosexuals than their same age counterpart heterosexuals, but doubt it will ever make a difference in house prices. I was just responding to the population shrinking event. Mr. Rotello made the interesting comparison when he said that gay men have far more lifetime partners than do heterosexual people. He has both gay and straight friends and when he told straight people the huge numbers of partners gay people have, they didn't believe him. Likewise, when he told gay people the relatively low number of lifetime partners heterosexual people have, they didn't believe him either. A friend of mine has worked for years at UT/SW Medical School in the realm of testing and prevention and he put me onto this book because he said it verifies the experience he has when he tries to convince young men whom he councils to change their behavior. The general idea is that they want to do the minimum necessary to change, but really long for the days of the seventies when they could go no holds barred back into promiscuity. The same principle applied when penicillin came out that would stop venereal deseases. So what did people do, they doubled down in their sexual activity to the extent that now there are countless STD's that are penicillin resistant. Same with the pill of 1960. It was supposed to lower unintended pregnancies but instead helped ignite the sexual revolution. The result is that over the past 43 years unintended pregnancies result in approximately 1 million legal abortions a year, not to mention the ones that go to full term. It's not a lack of information or availability of birth control, it's simply human nature that gets in the way every time.

13   MisdemeanorRebel   2016 Jun 20, 3:11pm  

Rew says

I've seen the trend/interest toward corporate backing of employees for mortgages as well as more interest in corporate housing in general here in Silicon Valley. Gives me major shivers.

Feudalism is the end game of neoliberalism. And like in feudalism, a lord might have many ethnicities in his demense.

14   curious2   2016 Jun 20, 3:19pm  

P N Dr Lo R says

UT/SW Medical School

Your friend's data are specific to southwest Texas and other similar areas. National data have shown, "Living in high prejudice areas increased risk of mortality for sexual minorities... Results were not due to HIV/AIDS-related causes of death." IOW, the hateful Texas "Christian" communities are killing people, or at least shortening life expectancy, especially if you include the striking "18-year difference in average age of completed suicide between sexual minorities in the high-prejudice (age 37.5) and low-prejudice (age 55.7) communities." I've seen countless refugees from those hateful communities, cut off from families by their charlatans, the closest thing to child sacrifice other than Muslim "honor killings." In too many cases, they value their own lives less than people who come from healthier communities. It takes a village to raise a child. Hate has horrible consequences, especially if it starts at home.

15   Strategist   2016 Jun 20, 4:41pm  

Sharingmyintelligencewiththedumbasses says

In America, today, rents are increasing too, which makes today's prices very well supported by rent. So, it would take an actual recession, not just some financial issues, to stop price growths now. When your mortgage is less than rent, you don't sell when things get tough, you move out and rent it.

Don't forget record low mortgage rates makes debt servicing very easy, and thus able to support much higher prices.
Cap rates in OC are about 3%, when in the past they were 1% to 2%.
Combine the above with very low home building in the last 9 years, and you have yourself a price explosion. Folks, you aint seen nuttin yet. The volcano has just started erupting.

16   Rew   2016 Jun 20, 4:46pm  

thunderlips11 says

Feudalism is the end game of neoliberalism. And like in feudalism, a lord might have many ethnicities in his demense.

Funny, I didn't know corporations where neoliberal too. I always thought they were free market capitalist constructs run by executive teams, beholden to a board of directors, who are in-turn beholden to individual share holders.

Wait a minute, do you own stocks!? *gasp* You neoliberal feudal oppressor!!!!

The corporations are just looking for ways to help improve their employee's quality of life. Some are seeing it might make dollars go farther to, instead of raising wages, help with housing benefits directly, instead. Why do you hate capitalism? *wink*

17   Rew   2016 Jun 20, 4:47pm  

Strategist says

Combine the above with very low home building in the last 9 years, and you have yourself a price explosion. Folks, you aint seen nuttin yet. The volcano has just started erupting.

Or as wogster would point out: Lot's more headroom on prices here in US compared to internationally.

18   Tenpoundbass   2016 Jun 20, 6:29pm  

exfatguy says

...theoretically, what could happen to make them go down and not be attractive to the worldwide investment community?

Donald Trump and immigration with teeth.

19   NDrLoR   2016 Jun 20, 6:58pm  

curious2 says

Your friend's data are specific to southwest Texas and other similar areas.

They are not my friend's data, he recommended the book to me, they are the author's, Gabriel Rotella, a well-respected journalist and author, firmly on the gay left and dismissive of the right wing as he calls them--but he realized if he and his friends kept on doing the things they were doing, they were all going to die:

http://www.gabrielrotello.com/www.gabrielrotello.com/GABRIEL_ROTELLO.html

curious2 says

the hateful Texas "Christian" communities are killing people

Now this perfectly illustrates a comment I made in another thread a few days ago, how the left is at one with many Muslims in their hatred of those who are religiously observant in the Judeo-Christian traditions. We're not killing anyone, if anyone's being killed, it is because they continue to indulge in behaviors that expose themselves to disease. The first wave of AIDS deaths happened to people who had bought the gay liberation line hook, line and sinker. It's hard to imagine some of the filthy things they did which they considered revolutionary, such as rimming, and wouldn't give it up on pain of death, which indeed happened. It's a sad commentary on a national culture of the past 45 years or so that has so willingly embraced such behaviors and think there's something wrong with judging them badly. The people in the gay liberation era considered having STD's as badges of honor! Can you imagine that! Having intestinal parasites was considered something good! What happened to people after the 1960's? Did they entirely loose their minds? The Christian perspective is that fornication is singled out for special mention in the Bible because as it says all the other sins are outside the body, but fornication involves the body which was made by God and is not your own to do with as you please. They're the one group that hasn't knuckled under like everyone else and for that they're pilloried as some kind of evil. I always wonder how all the disease and discomfort and ultimate death can be worth a few minutes sexual pleasure. Here's the perspective of gay essayist Michael Bronski: "gay liberation mean sexual freedom. And sexual freedom means more sex, better sex, sex in the bushes, in the toilets, in the baths, sex without love, sex without harassment, sex at home and sex in the streets." He was born about mid-century and seems to be at one with so many of his generation. I can tell you one thing, my parents and Olna and Ross who were born at the beginning of the 20th century would have been horrified if they could see our world today.

curious2 says

religious neighbors who dump toxic waste at the edge of your property can reduce housing values,

Used to, having Christian neighbors would have been considered good and dumping of three gallons of bad gasoline something of no consequence, as it isn't.

20     2016 Jun 20, 7:26pm  

theoretically, what could happen to make them go down and not be attractive to the worldwide investment community?

--------------

A housing bubble, instead of a Mortgage Bubble. Because the result would be oversupply, by the very definition of a bubble.

I live in an area where new building has no restraints, and they simply build more supply, as needed. And prices just pretty much move sideways, save for the occasional sucker that couldnt horsetrade to save their life that demands they get took.

Supply aint gonna outstrip demand in lala land cities like SF, but thats what it takes

21   curious2   2016 Jun 20, 8:13pm  

P N Dr Lo R says

They are not my friend's data, he recommended the book to me,

Fair enough, and I am glad you read Gabriel Rotello's book, which was published in [1997 - see below 1987]. Life expectancy for persons with HIV/AIDS increased dramatically around 1996, due to the advent of new combination drugs that should have gone generic and OTC by now. I do acknowledge that the incidence of HIV continues to be mostly in the MSM categories (men who have sex with men, including prisoners and closet cases who swear they're not gay). I note similarly that most HIV diagnoses have tended to be among Afro Americans, despite their being only around 10% of the population, due possibly to higher rates of incarceration and IV drug use (two closely related risk factors). Regarding some of the specific behaviors that you mentioned, the overall prevalence results mostly from the heterosexual population, including specific subsets e.g. the NBA and the subset of boomers who became "swingers" in the 1970s and 80s. Promiscuity is definitely a risk factor for STDs, and promiscuity correlates with being male, as nearly half the overall population are. The gay male and lesbian populations are both sinful according to your preferred charlatan, yet they have obviously different rates of HIV. More than 90% of gay men do not have HIV, and more than 99% of lesbians do not have it, so your supposedly omnipotent ego extension must either be imaginary or have terrible aim. Even among gay men, current nationwide data result from powerful local community effects and not primarily HIV/AIDS. So, if the fear of HIV is what's holding you back from getting gay married, you needn't worry overmuch about that; the much larger problem is your neighbors and especially your preferred charlatan.

P N Dr Lo R says

at one with many Muslims

The only example I can think of is the Londonistan ban on ads with bikinis, where a subset of feminists aligned with the newly elected Muslim mayor. Long ago, the left aligned with Arab Marxists, who called religion the opiate of the masses, but that isn't the sort of thing that Muslims would say (lest they get their heads cut off). Many Arabs are not Muslims, and most Muslims are not Arab (a fact evidently unknown to some on the left who call criticism of Islam "racist"). You do have a point though that people trying to "smash the state" tend to make common cause wherever they can, and without always thinking through the consequences of their actions.

22   NDrLoR   2016 Jun 21, 9:03am  

curious2 says

I am glad you read Gabriel Rotello's book

First printing was in 1997.

curious2 says

your preferred charlatan

That's more original than the often seen "skydaddy", one of Dan's favorites.

23   curious2   2016 Jun 21, 10:45am  

P N Dr Lo R says

curious2 says

I am glad you read Gabriel Rotello's book

First printing was in 1997.

Thanks: you are right about that, and I have corrected my prior comment. I should also acknowledge I haven't read his book; I have read his work from the 1980s, and assumed (wrongly) the book compiled that in some way. In any event, he describes the experience of a subset of boomers, and that experience has unfortunately echoed in a subset of millenials.

I have often remarked that if Martians viewed the evening news and nothing else, they would have a completely opposite view of life on earth: they would believe that airplanes only ever crash, buildings only ever burn down, and that they should ask their doctors about every overpriced pill that sponsors the broadcast. They would have no idea why people fly in airplanes, and live in buildings. Likewise, if you base your opinions on the memoirs of an NBA player, or a rock star, or an inveterate 70s swinger, you would get a picture significantly at variance with ordinary experience.

I linked to actual nationwide data, showing that disparities in life expectancy depend heavily on local communities, not HIV (which is practically the only really lethal STD these days). Your friend in southwest Texas might well observe data consistent with Gabriel Rotello's book, but it's a subset, just as the NBA and rock stars and swingers are. I have already acknowledged that the incidence and prevalence of HIV continue to be highest in the MSM categories, but considering that more than 90% of gay men don't have HIV, it doesn't currently have a huge effect on overall life expectancy, and it certainly hasn't reduced housing prices, which are the topic of the thread.

At most, if you want to assert a link to housing prices, you could say that the combination of profiteering and mandatory subsidized insurance have increased the sticker price of mandatory medical insurance in some areas, and that should in theory slightly reduce housing prices, but in practice it hasn't happened because the Byzantine cost-shifting subsidy mechanisms have deliberately obscured the costs so thoroughly. Also, HIV tends to be concentrated among the poor and addicted, especially IVDU, and housing prices in those areas are already close to scrap value.

I read endlessly, which is my personal addiction, and in my opinion both major parties have exploited this issue to capture and frighten constituencies. Republicans thwart medical research to keep people scared of STDs, which serves the religious narrative. Democrats agree to cut medical research in order to protect entrenched revenue models including daily pills, the prices of which are artificially inflated and subsidized by Obamneycare. The combined result exploits STDs to trap constituencies: (R) religious people frightened of catching an incurable and lethal STD, and the charlatans who exploit them, and (D) people whose lives depend on daily pills the retail prices of which are unaffordable without cost-shifting insurance subsidies, and the corporate profiteers determined to maximize the revenue from those STDs, even if it means encouraging more people to get them. Now THOSE ads are a real scandal, IMO, subordinating people's lives to lucre, but it's SOP among religious institutions worldwide.

Anyway, thank you for correcting my error about the publication date of Gabriel Rotello's book.

24   Blurtman   2016 Jun 21, 10:56am  

7. The rise of matriarchal societies where lesbianism is the norm, and men a dying breed.

8. Out of control global warming and an inadequate power grid driving people to live outdoors.

9. GM foods are engineered to be impossibly tasty, driving an out of control worldwide obesity epidemic.

10. God just says "Enough!" and removes all trace of human life from the planet.

25   Shaman   2016 Jun 21, 3:47pm  

Buying a house, condo, or apartment is a SOCIALIST endeavor that relies on the civility, cooperation, and goodwill of neighbors to be financially viable.
For instance, I share air space, noise space, parking space for guests, a pool and spa, green belts with flowers, and a clubhouse with my neighbors. We also pool money in a SOCIALIST manner we call HOA dues which pays for all the upkeep.

26   MMR   2016 Jun 21, 8:30pm  

curious2 says

Fortwhine/Forthood might be reducing the value of your neighbors' property - especially if you've continued pouring toxic waste illegally on your neighbors' boundary line.

Doesn't this guy live in Reseda? It's probably the most "reasonably priced" real estate in the valley. Being that it is chock full of Mexicans, It's hard to fathom how he can live there.

27   curious2   2016 Jun 22, 12:06am  

MMR says

Doesn't this guy live in Reseda?

Fortwhine/Forthood does live in Reseda, but every time he turns on the TV all he sees are "black actors and black celebrities." Waco has 10x more black people than Reseda, so I wondered if there might be a connection...

28   deepcgi   2016 Jun 22, 8:03am  

If you say that house prices will never go down, you also have to say that they will not remain stagnant. The system is not stable unless it is continuously increasing.

29   NuttBoxer   2016 Jun 24, 1:15pm  

exfatguy says

U.S. Housing Prices are Never Going to Down, But Humor Me...

A sure sign of a bubble.

"There will be no interruption of our permanent prosperity."
- Myron E. Forbes, President, Pierce Arrow Motor Car Co., January 12, 1928

30   Sharingmyintelligencewiththedumbasses   2016 Jun 24, 1:19pm  

NuttBoxer says

A sure sign of a bubble.

"There will be no interruption of our permanent prosperity."

- Myron E. Forbes, President, Pierce Arrow Motor Car Co., January 12, 1928

says the fucktard who didn't buy in San Diego 3 years ago and bragged about it on here??

you think your opinion matters, after a monumental fuckup like that??

31   NuttBoxer   2016 Jun 27, 7:59am  

Sharingmyintelligencewiththedumbasses says

says the fucktard who didn't buy in San Diego 3 years ago and bragged about it on here??

you think your opinion matters, after a monumental fuckup like that??

What's your property valued in again if decide to sell? Ohh yeah, that paper that presently collapsing around the world. How's your portfolio looking this morning?

32   exfatguy   2016 Jun 27, 10:25am  

I keep hearing about world debt. Who's in debt? Everybody is paying all cash for everything. If they are borrowing to get that cash, then from whom? Why isn't that lender investing in housing if it offers better returns than loaning money?

33   Sharingmyintelligencewiththedumbasses   2016 Jun 27, 10:33am  

NuttBoxer says

Sharingmyintelligencewiththedumbasses says

says the fucktard who didn't buy in San Diego 3 years ago and bragged about it on here??

you think your opinion matters, after a monumental fuckup like that??

What's your property valued in again if decide to sell? Ohh yeah, that paper that presently collapsing around the world. How's your portfolio looking this morning?

3.2 million, with 1.4 million in 4%ish debt, cash in come of $22000 a month, mortgages of $10,300 a month. I'm really worrying about things!

34   Strategist   2016 Jun 27, 10:59am  

Sharingmyintelligencewiththedumbasses says

3.2 million, with 1.4 million in 4%ish debt,

You should refinance. Get a 15 year fixed.

35   mmmarvel   2016 Jun 27, 11:43am  

Home prices are never going down

36   Sharingmyintelligencewiththedumbasses   2016 Jun 27, 12:14pm  

Ironman says

Gee, why does such a wealthy asshole like you need to teach 13th grade math in community college???... Hmmmm, maybe because you're LYING!!!!

I'm not that guy, but I spoke with him recently. He is doing even better than me investment wise, and is retiring in december with a pension of $70K a year... so yeah, working a few hours a day in a job he likes, with 3 months off in summer to get that pension.... how sad!

37   NuttBoxer   2016 Jun 27, 1:54pm  

Sharingmyintelligencewiththedumbasses says

3.2 million, with 1.4 million in 4%ish debt, cash in come of $22000 a month, mortgages of $10,300 a month. I'm really worrying about things!

That wasn't my question. How much did you lose today? Don't answer that. Instead just calculate if current trend continues, and you remain in assets that are just paper, and have no real value, since even you land is rented until you pay in full, how long before you go belly up?

It won't happen this week, but it will happen. And all that time and hard work to put into building that pile of paper will have been completely wasted. Meanwhile I'll be buying land somewhere more tropical, somewhere away from governments who don't respect property rights. But hey, at least you have right now.

38   Ironworker   2016 Jun 27, 1:57pm  

Those who already own their own house plus other properties will say it will never go down.

Those who are trying to buy are waiting for it to go down and think it must go down.

I believe it will go down, not much, for very brief period of time before it goes up again. Maybe 10-15% in SF Bay Area.

The difference is that it will be a buyers market and buyers will have little, little, little more to chose from and little less competition.

The fact is we all who didn't buy in 2011-2014 are regretting it. I'm one of them.

It was oportunity of a lifetime we probably won't see anymore.

39   tatupu70   2016 Jun 27, 2:03pm  

NuttBoxer says

and you remain in assets that are just paper, and have no real value, since even you land is rented until you pay in full, how long before you go belly up?

You're even dumber than I though if you believe that real estate is a paper asset.

40   Strategist   2016 Jun 27, 2:48pm  

NuttBoxer says

That wasn't my question. How much did you lose today? Don't answer that. Instead just calculate if current trend continues, and you remain in assets that are just paper, and have no real value, since even you land is rented until you pay in full, how long before you go belly up?

Since when is real estate just a paper asset? And how the hell do you calculate real estate fluctuations on a daily basis?
If current trends continue, he will be worth millions more, because the trend is up.
Your post has got to be the worst post on Patnet so far.

41   Strategist   2016 Jun 27, 2:49pm  

tatupu70 says

You're even dumber than I though if you believe that real estate is a paper asset.

The way he talks, it's just toilet paper.

42   mmmarvel   2016 Jun 27, 6:30pm  

What do you mean real estate is over priced???

43   mmmarvel   2016 Jun 27, 7:13pm  

Ironworker says

I believe it will go down, not much, for very brief period of time before it goes up again. Maybe 10-15% in SF Bay Area.

The difference is that it will be a buyers market and buyers will have little, little, little more to chose from and little less competition.

Then here is an idea - move away from the SF area.

Ironworker says

The fact is we all who didn't buy in 2011-2014 are regretting it. I'm one of them.

It was oportunity of a lifetime we probably won't see anymore.

Agreed, we bought in 2011 (in Houston) and the house has more than doubled what we paid for it. By the same token, if we sell the stuff that is out there now is too expensive for us. Guess I'll wait till it triples in value.

44   RWSGFY   2022 May 26, 7:51am  

DooDahMan says

mmmarvel says
Guess I'll wait till it triples in value.


Has it done so now ?


My shack is almost there if we are to believe Zillow. All in less than 10 years. It can't last - not with my fucking luck.
45   Blue   2022 May 26, 7:57am  

Corporations pay way less taxes than individuals. RE game is unfair and corrupt when corporation competing with individuals. Take for example 1978 prop 13, corporations keep original entities to continue tax basis when acquiring and pay almost zero property taxes.

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