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Interview: Why The American Recession Bears Failed


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2016 Jul 18, 12:22pm   19,647 views  137 comments

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https://loganmohtashami.com/2016/07/18/interview-why-the-american-recession-bears-failed/

#Economics

We want this war for the next 20 years against the Anti American demogoues. Make no mistake both conservative and liberal.. the days of lying about this great country is coming to an end.... the days of the data miners destroying the Anti American Troll is here

Let The War Begin

#USA

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102   _   2016 Jul 19, 1:04pm  

junkmail says

Unless you can call the janitor an assistant, who knows?

Lets see here

Junkmail... don't worry I won't say your real name... JESUS ... holy crap.. dude... I will always respect my elders. I didn't know...

I will never say anything out of context about you ever again sir.

2 homes in the O.C.
Mercdes Benz paid for
Now I admit I am not Wall Street Rich.. only 310K in stocks

But... I had to bait you guys into first....

People emotionally lack discipline... cursing is the first great example...and certain word tones

103   _   2016 Jul 19, 1:07pm  

freespeechforever says

Life is transitory!

Yes, and now... this loan officer ( cough cough) who does the national broad cast housing interviews for Bloomberg ( yearly prediction) gets to debate his fellow Housing data people at his event this year

http://www.americatalyst.com/content/2016-americatalyst-fast-forward

;-)

104   _   2016 Jul 19, 1:09pm  

All of you.. thank you.. honestly....

We understand each other better now ;-)

105   freespeechforever   2016 Jul 19, 1:09pm  

Logan, as mentioned above, your dad or older brother who prob founded AMC Lending was prob Mohammad, so that's cool.

I was presumptive when I shouldn't have been.

Try to take that which you were left with and advance the ball as far as you can, bro!

106   _   2016 Jul 19, 1:14pm  

freespeechforever says

Try to take that which you were left with and advance the ball as far as you can, bro!

All you had to do is ask

My father Mohammad Mohtashami came to this country in 1976 when I was 1 ... He started as a Bank teller in Bank of America in San Francisco and then moved to Santa Monica where he ran the Santa Monica and Beverly Hills Branch of Bank of America ... and then he decided to create his own mortgage company in 1987

Moved to Irvine .. Bought his first home for 300K 6 Porter Irvine CA and then Bought his 2nd home in Nellie Gail Ranch 25456 Nellie Gail Laguna Hils CA 92653
675K in 1996 and now just sold it for $1,775,000

He also goes by Amir Mohtashami... Mohammad is his legal name ...

So, you guys can see, why I am always defensive about those who bad mouth America.. because we came here as a family in a 1 bedroom apt. Now Dad... :-) just sold his $1,775,000 home

American Dream.....

;-)

Yes, I am one those immigrants who came here ...became a U.S. citizen in 1999 My name was Hossein Mohtahsami and Changed it to Logan Mohtashami

107   freespeechforever   2016 Jul 19, 1:17pm  

p.s. - My advice (it's free; treat it as you will); never mention amount or type of personal assets on the intervenes.

That's between you and your CPA.

In all seriousness, it sounds like you have a good thing going in the mortgage brokerage business and you're at ground zero of Chinese offshore capital outflows doing biz in Irvine.

Never assume it will last forever or even much longer, and keep your debt/overhead levels low/lean, bro.

Peeps I know who've made a killing all ran lean (unless they were trust fund kids), while others who ran up sky-high debt during boom-cycles got crushed during bust-cycles.

Just because you and I have a very different prognosis for the real state of the economy's health and where were headed doesn't mean there's not money to be made or that I wouldn't buy you lunch and even put you up in a nice boutique hotel I finished in 2012 (as partnered with a PE firm), if you're ever in town, bro.

108   _   2016 Jul 19, 1:19pm  

freespeechforever says

p.s. - My advice (it's free; treat it as you will); never mention amount or type of personal assets on the intervenes.

That's between you and your CPA.

In all seriousness, it sounds like you have a good thing going in the mortgage brokerage business and you're at ground zero of Chinese offshore capital outflows doing biz in Irvine.

Never assume it will last forever or even much longer, and keep your debt/overhead levels low/lean, bro.

Peeps I know who've made a killing all ran lean (unless they were trust fund kids), while others who ran up sky-high debt during boom-cycles got crushed during bust-cycles.

Just because you and I have a very different prognosis for the real state of the economy's health and where were headed doesn't mean there's not money to be made or that I wouldn't buy you lunch and even put you up in a nice boutique hotel I finished in 2012 (as partnered with a PE firm), if you're ever in town, bro.

See.. this is a conversation.... you wrote to well to be a typical troll...

109   _   2016 Jul 19, 1:22pm  

Logan Mohtashami says

junkmail says

Dude.. I am just messing with you.. I don't know who you're

Only people who work and registered to linkedin can see each other

You guys are too clever to fall for that for you're not on linkedin ;-)

It was a joke old man ...

110   freespeechforever   2016 Jul 19, 1:22pm  

My last post was before I read your last one.

YESSS!

Your father is proud of you (no sarcasm at all), whether he's still on earth or looking upon you from above.

I have mad respect for you, Logan.

The PE firm I partnered with on that hotel has 3 major principals: Jewish, Iranian (Persian) and Indian! And they are like family to each other!

Business often leads the way in showing the world's citizens how to treat each other (with love, respect and dignity - even the. Things get lean, hopefully).

111   _   2016 Jul 19, 1:23pm  

freespeechforever says

Jewish, Iranian (Persian) and Indian

Ouch.. and when I say that.. you know exactly what I mean .....in jest...

112   freespeechforever   2016 Jul 19, 1:25pm  

Logan, I'm going to shoot you some names of some very aggressive and competent mortgage brokers (founders and partners) in Michigan who want to expand interstate, for which they need competent local talent.

I'll send an email or PM (if possible) to your website.

113   junkmail   2016 Jul 19, 1:26pm  

Ohhh I think I'm getting it now.

AMC =
Amir Mohtashami (Company)

Dad is Mohammad M Mohtashami or Mohammad A Mohtashami he's the owner.
Rest of staff is compiled of family members, some of which are below...

Mohammad
Amir
Abbas
Hayden
Hossein
Hoorinaz
Sneezy
Grumpy
Dopey

114   indigenous   2016 Jul 19, 1:27pm  

freespeechforever says

Business often leads the way in showing the world's citizens how to treat each other (with love, respect and dignity - even the. Things get lean, hopefully).

There ya go

115   _   2016 Jul 19, 1:28pm  

junkmail says

Hossein Me

junkmail says

Hayden

Mom :-) ahhh

indigenous says

Amir

Dad

The rest I have no idea ;-)

116   freespeechforever   2016 Jul 19, 1:29pm  

They get along great.

They are building a Four Seasons together in Surfside, Florida now (over 400 million dollar project).

I told them it's a bad idea over dinner at Joe's (Stone Crabs), but they have a non-recourse loan and just laughed right in my face!

(They picked up the very hefty tab, so it's all good.)

117   _   2016 Jul 19, 1:31pm  

Amir ( Mohammad) Mohtashami
Haydeh Lavari :-)

Known as Mom and Dad :-)

118   indigenous   2016 Jul 19, 1:32pm  

Logan Mohtashami says

indigenous says

.I didn't say anything.

I made a mere remark, that exchange creates respect.

119   _   2016 Jul 19, 1:32pm  

freespeechforever says

They get along great.

amazing...

120   junkmail   2016 Jul 19, 1:36pm  

Complied last post before he came clean. (So obviously late to party)
Good thing too since I had his dad's records on my screen.

I find honesty to be the best policy.

Perhaps we're not as stupid as you first thought, Logan. One thing I learned in my many years on the planet. Don't underestimate your opponent.

Closing window and going back to gardening.

121   _   2016 Jul 19, 1:41pm  

junkmail says

I find honesty to be the best policy.

Hence why that is my real name and real face ;-)

122   beershrine   2016 Jul 20, 1:35pm  

Logan, Good job on that radio show, You have solid info. bro...Don't let those trolls get to you keep up the good work. K

123   _   2016 Jul 20, 1:51pm  

beershrine says

Logan, Good job on that radio show, You have solid info. bro...Don't let those trolls get to you keep up the good work. K

My conservative friends went nuts when I went left of Bernie Sanders and called out their lies on Federal Debt... It was awesome!! because you know I have all the charts to show that higher federal debt hasn't lead to higher nominal rates

October 30th - Nov 1st , I was asked to go to the national housing economic conference in Austin Texas, this is where a lot of the financial people go and debate on housing.

So, for the first time, I believe I get to debate live with all the financial people in one place.

I can't explain enough... how giddy I am about this chance, the other conferences with economist has just been discussions and going over data.

This event

http://www.americatalyst.com/content/2016-americatalyst-fast-forward

Also in talks to write for 538, Nate Silvers ESPN website. As long as the restrictions aren't too much, that could happen as well.

124   indigenous   2016 Jul 20, 2:15pm  

Logan Mohtashami says

called out their lies on Federal Debt

What are they?

125   _   2016 Jul 20, 2:21pm  

indigenous says

What are they?

Balance Budget amendment... a thesis that many Republicans use as a political weapon even though Republicans in power never believe in it.

But the thesis that if Federal Debt rises, the bond market will require the U.S. to pay higher interest rate..

Or federal debt will create inflation which is really an issue from heavy importing countries that have to borrower against the dollar.

In any case, its been a horrible thesis and a strong political weapon as well.

It's politics, its all part of the game... but ... its a terrible lie

126   indigenous   2016 Jul 20, 2:33pm  

Logan Mohtashami says

Balance Budget amendment... a thesis that many Republicans use as a political weapon even though Republicans in power never believe in it.

Yup that is a bogus argument. The better one IMO would be spending as a percentage of GDP.

Not that I disagree with the sentiment of smaller more localized government.

Logan Mohtashami says

But the thesis that if Federal Debt rises, the bond market will require the U.S. to pay higher interest rate..

That revolves around whether or not the Fed controls interest rates. You say they don't, I'm skeptical.

We are seeing secular deflation. But that maybe a part of a long term business cycle.

Logan Mohtashami says

Or federal debt will create inflation which is really an issue from heavy importing countries that have to borrower against the dollar.

Since we export inflation that is sort of a moot point. OTOH you subscribe to inflation is "too much money chasing too few goods". I have also read it is a function of population growth and fractional banking. Not sure I buy into the latter but the prior gets mitigated because of the reserve currency status.

At the very least it seems to me that borrowing to pay for debt is iniquity .

127   _   2016 Jul 20, 2:36pm  

128   indigenous   2016 Jul 20, 2:43pm  

US Federal Government Contribution to GDP = percentage of GDP is federal spending? correlates to the Fed balance sheet.

129   _   2016 Jul 20, 2:47pm  

indigenous says

US Federal Government Contribution to GDP = percentage of GDP is federal spending? correlates to the Fed balance sheet.

Those are 2 different things entirely

130   junkmail   2016 Jul 20, 3:02pm  

Just want to say, I'm liking the new Logan. Humble, honest and genuine.

But still 100% wrong. (just joking)

131   _   2016 Jul 20, 3:06pm  

junkmail says

But still 100% wrong. (just joking)

My wife says that to me everyday but without the joking part ;-)

132   neplusultra57   2016 Jul 20, 3:46pm  

Logan Mohtashami says

Also in talks to write for 538, Nate Silvers ESPN website. As long as the restrictions aren't too much, that could happen as well.

That would be cool, Logan. What restrictions would 538 impose that bother you?

133   _   2016 Jul 20, 3:54pm  

neplusultra57 says

What restrictions would 538 impose that bother you?

I have to go over that with them when we have time to go over the details, but they said the key word restrictions, this just recently happened too.

What they want

1. Write to a broad audience, so that means I have to assume people aren't financial savvy. This would be a terribly big change for me because I only write really to those who follow economics ( Hence) the Facebook page being a constant news feed of economic charts and data.

2. Time, do I have the time and would it be worth it for me. I have no idea yet how much they want.

We shall see, their economist and I agreed that I would change how I write articles for them. However, I still want the freedom to do my own stuff.

We shall see.

134   indigenous   2016 Jul 20, 5:50pm  

This chart looks like huge government growth.

This chart is ambiguous:

135   _   2016 Jul 20, 6:00pm  

indigenous says

This chart looks like huge government growth.

Mostly mandatory payouts

136   indigenous   2016 Jul 20, 6:18pm  

Seems odd that entitlements are included as GDP, but many things don't make sense we considering GDP.

137   _   2016 Jul 20, 6:22pm  

indigenous says

Seems odd that entitlements are included as GDP, but many things don't make sense we considering GDP.

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