patrick.net

The Black Death was great for those who survived: Wages went up, the total control of the Church and Lords (and Guilds) over the Masses weakened in the face of high labor demand, upward mobility increased, and of course it fired the a major wave of industrialization (from the introduction of new ship rigging to a huge increase in wind and water mills). Not to mention increased liberty for all, more free thinking, etc.

The Renaissance took flight in the aftermath of the Black Death

Agreed. But unfortunately people think short term, on the time scale of their lifespan.

thunderlips11 says

The Renaissance took flight in the aftermath of the Black Death

Exactly. The Renaissance and the modern world only happened because of the increase in power of labor after the Black Death.

www.HcEllXY76W4

The Black Death was like a mass extinction. After a mass extinction there is a race among surviving species to fill all the niches opened and evolution goes into overdrive. After the Black Death the survivors had economic opportunities they would not have if the Black Death did not reduce the population.

The low birth rate in developed nations like Japan will make labor more expensive, which is a good thing, and investment will be made into labor saving advancements just like what happened in the Black Death but without any of the death through murder or disease.

The Great Recession was like a mass extinction. After a mass extinction there is a race among surviving species to fill all the niches opened and evolution goes into overdrive. After the Great Recession the survivors had economic opportunities they would not have if the Great Recession did not reduce the entrenched power structure in place.

errc says

After the Great Recession the survivors had economic opportunities they would not have if the Great Recession did not reduce the entrenched power structure in place.

Examples? I haven't noticed any changes.

Sounds like Stalin, Mao, and Hitler were on the right track.

There is nothing more important in my life than my wife and family. What do you all live for, yourselves alone?

What a cold, sterile, loveless, and joyless world you live in.

NuttBoxer says

There is nothing more important in my life than my wife and family. What do you all live for, yourselves alone?

And that's the problem with human morality. It's based almost entirely on genetic similarity. Every man draws a circle around him. The most selfish man's circle contains only him. Most men's circles contains only their family. Some men draws the circle to include some, maybe even all, of their neighbors. The true patriot draws the circle around his entire tribe, but not other tribes. A few great men draw their circle large enough to include everyone.

A very old, but accurate and insightful meme demonstrates human morality impeccably. No better summary of the real nature of human -- and non-human -- morality has ever been devised.

Dan8267 says

And that's the problem with human morality. It's based almost entirely on genetic similarity.

Glag you see you have the same respect for foreigners as for dogs.

I think AI will solve the problem of economics within a shrinking population.
Unfortunately our elites that are soooo kin on replacing missing births with foreigners.

Breed like flies, live and die like flies.

Heraclitusstudent says

Glag you see you have the same respect for foreigners as for dogs.

Just because I acknowledge how humans model their morality does not imply that I agree with it.

Heraclitusstudent says

Unfortunately our elites that are soooo kin on replacing missing births with foreigners.

The opulent lifestyles of the rich are dependent on masses of extremely poor servants. At least until robots can do enough that the rich can kill off the other 99.99% of the world.

Dan8267 says

[Side question... What the hell is up with Japan's weird and dysfunctional view on sex. Half the young people despise the idea of sex? That's fucked up.]

www.y_pVOM3OIwM

There is another scene where Kevin Spacey's Prot character talk about how distasteful they consider sex on KPAX.

This may be the way of the Japanese. As they say it takes a village to raise a child, but that doesn't exist in our first world cultures anymore. The burden of child raising is squarely put on the shoulders of the parents, and honestly, considering how much lack of support there is on so many levels -- from the government to society at large to extended family, not to mention the astronomical monetary expense, it makes sense that young people are seeing the overall cost of having a child -- mental, physical, emotional, and financial is not worth it.

Among the reason given in the video by young women: "I feel like men earn less than before, so they might have trouble finding a partner."
then they giggle imagining how much should a guy earn and add "More than I earn".

Heraclitusstudent says

Among the reason given in the video by young women: "I feel like men earn less than before, so they might have trouble finding a partner."

then they giggle imagining how much should a guy earn and add "More than I earn".

This is where the rubber meets the road. Most of the content of the videos merely dance around the subject, and never gets down to the truth of the matter: Women want men that are BETTER than them. They always have and they always will. At the same time, they now demand to be "EQUAL" to men. As I have said multiple times before on patnet, that particular set of equations and inequalities does not have a solution. You cannot demand both better and equal at the same time.

It is not that men and women, in Japan or overall, do not want to have sex and make babies. It is that the women have created, by their demands, an unsolvable set of constraints (on the average), and that the men are fed up and refuse to play the rigged game. In return, the japanese women redefine this as "sex and relationships are too much of a hassle". All the blah-blah in the videos is just a way of avoiding the truth.

ADDENDUM: Actually, there are quite a few men that are better earners than quite a few women. A big part of the problem is then that young women have completely unrealistic ideas about what they will be earning by the time they hit 30, based on relentless self-adulation and you-go-girl-ism about their careers. These women therefore reject the guys that they should accept, at the time when they should accept them. Instead they waste their time in standard alpha-fucks fashion, searching for the unicorn alpha as long as they can. It is no wonder that men, japanese and otherwise, will not accept these women later in life.

Oh, the population thing: I agree with what Dan wrote. It is very hard to keep a pyramid scheme going without growth. Hence population drops are going to be difficult for the older population that depends on the labor of the younger population. Reduction would be good but will be painful.

justme says

It is that the women have created, by their demands, an unsolvable set of constraints (on the average), and that the men are fed up and refuse to play the rigged game.

I know this will be shocking to the posters here, but here it is: Not all women are gold-diggers. There. I said it. Think more realistically and give half of the population of the world some credit.

Why do you think the term "supermom" exists? Women are working and often times having to do a second job after work and on the weekends. I know it's also not easy for the men, but domestic and childcare responsibilities often fall heavily on the women's shoulder, no matter how many hours a week they are working. Young women look at this dynamic and want an easier life for themselves which means no children and more free time, and has nothing to do with rejecting men based on their income level.

Until we get a handle on population control no amount of technology or resources conservation will save the environment, stop future wars, and in general be able to make all lives less miserable for future generations. The longer we humans delay the more painful it will be.

What happens after population crosses a sustainability threshold?

Indiana Jones says

I know this will be shocking to the posters here, but here it is: Not all women are gold-diggers. There. I said it.

That's right. YOU said it. In other words, you made up a strawman argument.

Indiana Jones says

Think more realistically and give half of the population of the world some credit

Indeed, but in reverse. Women should have started doing that in the 1960s, and we would not have the current unsolvable situation. But in fact, women have given men less credit than they deserve since the beginning of time. It is one behavior that you can absolutely rely upon. Women will always demand more from men than what they demand from themselves. That is why we have sexual dimorphism.

rpanic01 says

Why do you think the term "supermom" exists?

Because it is good marketing to pander to a significant market segment.

Indiana Jones says

Women are working and often times having to do a second job after work and on the weekends.

Men work longer hours in more challenging and more dangerous jobs than women, on the average. And they still have a weekend full of honey-do items. Your argument does not hold water.

Indiana Jones says

Young women look at this dynamic and want an easier life for themselves which means no children and more free time, and has nothing to do with rejecting men based on their income level.

Most young women think they will have children. They are however too busy looking for unicorn men and playing the field, to actually have any children in their 20s, for the most part. They all think, like the japanese 30-somethings in the video, that they will have children some day. In many cases it does not happen. Or they have them out of wedlock.

Indiana Jones says

I know it's also not easy for the men, but domestic and childcare responsibilities often fall heavily on the women's shoulder, no matter how many hours a week they are working.

True and that means women have to rely on men for some resources. Japan as such is far more traditional and less feminist than the US.
But claiming equality just makes this worse as it forces women to compete with men in the workplace. And claiming equality on the home front is a pipe dream.

I didnt realize Dan was such a neo-malthusian.

Maybe Oprah was right: http://www.msnbc.com/politicsnation/oprah-old-racists-have-die-progress .

Population that grows unchecked results in a mass die-off. If human beings don't keep their populations in check, nature will, and mother nature will be far less kind in her methods. I'll take economic incentives over starvation, plagues, and wars any day.

This thread is useless without slutty pics of Japanese women.

Heraclitusstudent says

All empires collapse. The fall of Rome wasn't due to fertility rates dropping. The empire overexpanded, used mercenaries, and effectively armed their enemies.

Rome fell because
1. Rome armed the very people it conquered and those people, the so-called barbarians, eventually thought they would profit more by racking Rome, and so they did.
2. Rome over-expanded and over-spent on its military, much like the U.S. This strangled their economy.
3. Rome depended on slavery, which is always unstable and requires constant terror to enforce. Slavery also holds back innovation, loyalty to one's nation, and progress.
4. Rome also depended on mercenaries who held no allegiance to the state, much like the U.S.
5. Rome was too large to manage for its time and technological level, so it ended up being split into two empires, the Eastern Roman Empire and the Western Roman Empire. This weakened the Eastern Empire, which is what we think of the Roman Empire. The Western Roman Empire didn't actually fall but faded into other civilizations.
6. Constant infighting and killing among the politicians.
7. The rise of Christianity challenging the power of the empire while creating an empire that expanded into the "barbarian" lands. Eventually the pope became the real emperor.

The above graph is more what happens when you run a "welfare state" and enslave half the world to feed your idle capital population(s).

I hadn't made the connection, but The Hunger Games was some analogue of ancient Rome's system of exploitation.

As for Japan's baby boom, it was sharp and short, just 2-3 years in the late 40s. They actually legalized abortion to nip it in the bud for some reason (I suspect they wanted to limit the growing half-Japanese population during the American occupation). At any rate while our baby boom was going on into the 1950s, the Japanese were aborting 1 million pregnancies a year.

Is my favorite image of Japan's future demographic challenge. Doesn't look too bad. Compared to the youth-oriented 1970s and 80s, there will be a lot fewer young people, a lot more old people.

Good information, Bellingham Bill.