patrick.net

One of the key points I talked this year to my super bearish housing friends

They believed housing was peaking...

What I try to present is that ... when you have 154 Million working people and you have net 35 million of them making good money... New home sales around trend 560K isn't a lot homes to be calling for peak housing..

This is the best data point on why housing has legs and not peaking

Population adjusted data you're 41.8% below 1963 levels and headline is about 0.2% above 1963 levels

Ironman says

Until next month...

4 revision positive this year before August, that means the trend is fine and the only negative revision really came from that 600K print, this year is different than last year

I believe it was April 23, 2016 when I wrote the article "Time for New Home Sales To Show Growth"

Updated data line .. now you can see what I was talking about

I think the UK/US provide more than enough historical data.

Low Wages can only create a "Middle Class" if housing costs are kept to a minimum via subsidized construction for builders to use land to build for modest homeowners.

Ever since the US/UK stopped encouraging affordable housing, real estate costs have skyrocketed far higher than the rate of inflation. The correlation is almost perfect in both countries.

The government AND private industry can make money on it, while providing hundreds of thousands of jobs.

I am driving the Market Urban-ism people nuts with this thesis but none of them were versed in the data on the big home thesis and are trying to convince me that this isn't an issue

Always tell after 3 sentences if a group of people ever bothered to study the data .. then the best is just letting them talk, talk, talk until they realize they're not educated enough in the data lines they profess to be talking about