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Bellingham Bill
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2017 Jan 13, 8:09pm
economists and media types are generally idiots and do not understand real estate economics at all.
any discussion of prices has to incorporate that graph.
(and in the 2004-2006 bubble markets we need to look at the actual loans people were getting, as back then "teaser rate" and even negative-amortization pay-option no-documentation "suicide" loans were a large part of the market.)
deepcgi
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2017 Jan 13, 8:57pm
The Central Banks have been deleveraging constantly for the entirety of the Obama Administration, while providing a great deal of bail-out money to the areas you are highlighting via the FED buying-up their bad mortgage-backed securities and CDO's. None of that newly printed debt is going to show up on graphs reflecting Main Street transactions. Didn't read about the Federal Reserve Audit? Yeah, neither did I.
The fundamentals have been skewed for a solid 20 years. Tell the truth now. Do you feel any increased burden because of massive worldwide debt increases that are upon you today versus what was on you 8 or 16 years ago? Of course not, only your personal debt matters. To you very little has changed. You "Know" Real Estate! All of those supernatural trillions of debt owed are imaginary.
Will the FED be bailing out Deutchbank? What is Germany going to do to turn the tide of loss? They are literally ALL that the EU has, they are flat broke, and they are being flooded with unskilled immigrants from Spain, Italy, Greece, Portugal and the Middle East. What about China? Haven't noticed their recent bump in the financial road? It was about the height of the 7000 stairs of mount Tai-Shan. One of the reasons you have so many Chinese real estate buyers is specifically BECAUSE China is in such deep trouble.
Trump is a Keynesian as well. The banks and financials will lie right up until they are screwed and have no choice.
monkframe
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2017 Jan 13, 9:09pm
Everyone should be happy, and not worry. Soma will be on offer...
monkframe
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2017 Jan 13, 9:18pm
The greatest builder of wealth inequality is real estate prices. Most of the fortunes in this country are based in real estate, and that includes (gag) the president-elect. Many categories of small business have been wiped by by the internet, but a more important reason is the cost of rents. People may not care, until they seek a service not offered by the internet. So be it, people find things out the hard way, almost always, yours truly included. The society of button-pushers that we have is one that's largely unaware of the ground they walk upon. Watch out for that pothole, dummy!
The greatest builder of wealth inequality is real estate prices. Most of the fortunes in this country are based in real estate, and that includes (gag) the president-elect. Many categories of small business have been wiped by by the internet, but a more important reason is the cost of rents. People may not care, until they seek a service not offered by the internet. So be it, people find things out the hard way, almost always, yours truly included. The society of button-pushers that we have is one that's largely unaware of the ground they walk upon. Watch out for that pothole, dummy!
almost unintelligible.
your main point is that real estate builds wealth? awesome! and not new.
monkframe
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2017 Jan 13, 9:26pm
"...your main point is that real estate builds wealth? awesome! and not new."
No, wealth inequality. Try reading for content and meaning.
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A new column by economist Dean Baker:
July 27, 2016
The Return of the Housing Bubble???????
Okay, it's not like the good old days of 2002–2007, but there are some grounds for concern in certain markets. In particular, the Case-Shiller tiered price indexes are showing extraordinary increases in the bottom tier (lowest third of house sale prices) in several markets.
For example, the index shows that in Denver prices in the bottom tier have risen by 16.7 percent over the last year and by 49.8 percent over the last three years. The comparable figures for the top tier are 6.4 percent and 21.4 percent. The CPI owner equivalent rent (OER) index has risen by 19.6 percent over the last three years.
In Portland, the one years increase for the bottom tier has been 16.2 percent and the three year 44.4 percent. For the top tier, the increases have been 9.9 percent and 26.3 percent. Rents have risen 16.3 percent over the last three years. In Los Angeles, prices in the bottom teir have risen 8.9 percent in the last year and 37.8 percent over the last three years. That compares to 7.0 percent and 21.1 percent for the top tier. Rents have risen by 9.9 percent over the last three years.
In Chicago, prices in the bottom tier have risen by 40.7 percent over the last three years and in Miami by 55.6 percent. Rents over this period rose in the two cities by 6.9 percent and 10.4 percent, respectively.
These numbers should provide serious grounds for caution. This is not a story of a bubble whose collapse will sink the economy and cause a financial crisis, but there is a real possibility that a lot of moderate-income homebuyers may get badly burned if prices turn around. The real estate pushers never care, since they make their money on the turnover, but it won't be a pretty picture for the families affected.