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Logan made it to the big time.

By indigenous follow indigenous   2016 Sep 1, 1:07pm 6,694 views   55 comments   watch   nsfw   quote   share    


#IronAssPounder

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16   _   ignore (0)   2016 Sep 1, 6:30pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Here is the schedule of topics that will be discussed if any of them sound interesting in particular

Sunday, October 30, 2016

Opening Dinner
Monday, October 31, 2016

OPENING COMMENTS: Globalization is Dying, The Technium is Emerging

THE SCORE: Strengths, Challenges, Opportunities, Responses, and Effectiveness of the Housing Finance Market

THE DRY FOREST: Liquidity

THE UNTHINKABLE: The Impact of Climate Volatility and Climate Gentrification on U.S. Real Estate and House Prices

THE INEVITABLE: The Twelve Technological Trends of the Future and Why It’s Just Beginning

THE TREEHOUSE PILOTS: The New Digerati of the Housing Industry and Their Big Ideas for the Future (Champagne Debate)

Monday Reception

Tuesday, November 1, 2016

THE FUTURE OF REAL ESTATE

THE THREE GREAT STIMULANTS

HOUSE AND RENT PRICES

Additional Day 2 Sessions to be announced soon...
Closing Reception

17   jazz_music   ignore (13)   2016 Sep 1, 6:52pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Logan Mohtashami says

Nice Try Ironman

Ironmangina and Strategist talk about drinking alcohol on patnet all the time, it's like an obsession with them.

18   Strategist   ignore (2)   2016 Sep 1, 7:24pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Ironman says

jazz music says

talk about drinking alcohol on patnet all the time, it's like an obsession with them.

We "talk", while you "consume", a LOT... That's where the TRUE obsession is, you being wasted and posting your dribble on Patnet...

There's a difference...

And don't forget the good Jamaican stuff our friend consumes.

19   jazz_music   ignore (13)   2016 Sep 1, 7:49pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

have fun trolls

20   Strategist   ignore (2)   2016 Sep 1, 8:52pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Ironman says

jazz music says

troll

Here's the biggest one on Patnet (who also has a major substance abuse problem):

-

Did you notice, besides alcohol, crime is his trigger.

21   ChapulinColorado   ignore (2)   2016 Sep 1, 8:58pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Logan, I thought you were gone. One can never truly leave Patnet, we always come back.

Question: Is it still a good time to buy another investment property, specifically housing... in Sacramento, CA?

22   HEY YOU   ignore (10)   2016 Sep 1, 9:16pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Patrick,
Are you enjoying these comments as much as me?
lol

23   jazz_music   ignore (13)   2016 Sep 1, 11:16pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

I'll bite. Which comments and why?

24   AllTruth   ignore (1)   2016 Sep 1, 11:47pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Logan's a permabull, malleable to an industry full of sell-side permabull anal-cysts, who have never seen nor predicted a recession or downturn on the horizon, no matter how bright the oncoming headlights.

These peoples' incomes depend on people and institutions buying more stocks, bonds, real estate (Logan the permabull) and other assets that they directly benefit from financially; NOT from giving fact-based, objective, rational advice & planning methodology.

I have access to one of the brightest commercial/industrial real estate brokers (she's a dual citizen Chinese-American who speaks fluent Mandarin and has an office in Manhattan and in Shanghai, with a Ph.D in economics and also an MBA); she just attended a very professional, robustly-debated/moderated forum on asset bubbles put on by CBRE Global, and she predicts, based on modeling, assessments by genuinely renowned experts who spoke at the conference, and even real-time events (e.g. price trends and volatility that have already commenced) a severe downturn in commercial, office and residential real estate even in major "trophy" markets, with secondary markets being hit particularly hard.

The only question is whether the next downturn will be as severe , more severe or less severe than 2008-2011 was, and many think it will be at least as severe since FOMC rates were at 5.5% at the inception of the 08 downturn, allowing the fed reserve (as well as all other major central banks) to initiate years of rate cuts (interest rates are now negative nominally or after adjusting for inflation in many parts of the world), and there's no room for further monetary stimulus in any meaningful manner when the next downturn occurs.

The Fed, BOJ, BOE, ECB, PBOC, et al., went too deep down the stimulus rabbit hole for far too long, and the heroin-addicted economy has a massive tolerance level now, completely dependent on central bank dope, and not growing in productive ways (productivity is decreasing), and the all asset prices have been artificially inflated by crazy monetary policy to asinine levels again.

The central banks have coordinated the largest asset reflaction schemes, completely independent on real economic activity or real aggregate demand, in history, essentially.

Logan and others like him will never advise anyone to sell, rather than buy, when they are a mortgage broker, and need more buyers continually, as their income is directly tied to keeping buyers in the ponzi.

Logan is just another whore, whether a mortgage whore, stock broker whore, real estate broker whore, title insurance whore, etc.

It's all part & parcel of the biggest confidence scam in history.

Let's wait & see if we see an even bigger crash than in 2008'2011, given that the central banks have loaded up their balance sheets to record high levels with the monetized bonds of government and even junk-rated corporations (i.e. ECB, BOJ), and many developed and emerging nations have debt ratios running at 110% to 240% of their GDPs, and continue to deficit spend annually at a massive level just to keep the system from imploding as is.

25   Strategist   ignore (2)   2016 Sep 2, 5:37am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

AllTruth says

Let's wait & see if we see an even bigger crash than in 2008'2011, given that the central banks have loaded up their balance sheets to record high levels with the monetized bonds of government and even junk-rated corporations (i.e. ECB, BOJ), and many developed and emerging nations have debt ratios running at 110% to 240% of their GDPs, and continue to deficit spend annually at a massive level just to keep the system from imploding as is.

It was necessary to prevent a depression. The worst is over.
The next recession will be at a different time, for different reasons.

26   indigenous   ignore (0)   2016 Sep 2, 5:45am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Strategist says

It was necessary to prevent a depression. The worst is over.

The next recession will be at a different time, for different reasons.

That is the party line. But NOT true. It would have been far less disruptive to let Jeff Immelt lose his bonus and tell Henry Paulson to tell his stories elsewhere AIG may have gone under as some of the big banks but the recovery would have been swift, much swifter than what we got.

27   _   ignore (0)   2016 Sep 2, 6:23am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

AllTruth says

(Logan the permabull)

This is why ... reading is a good thing

Nazi didn't read... that was a problem

Remember, math, facts and data matter..

Jan 2016

As predictable as the Sun rising, the Drama last Friday sent the Recession Bears into over drive once again.

Well, time to man up, time stamp your 2016 Recession Call now.

I say no, can't have a Job Loss Recession or 2nd Great Recession as some have been calling ....while

- Fed rate hike cycle barely started ( No Inflation) to fight

- LEI is still tracking positive

- Unemployment claims are low ( Not over 300K) and you need to see 323K with breath, not just mining and oil companies.

Once you get falling LEI, Claims rising and Fed Rate Hike Cycle going, then you have something, but it's not there yet

#Economics
#Investing
#Housing

2016 Economic Time Stamp Here, with my own model to know when the Recession Red Flag needs to be waived
http://loganmohtashami.com/2015/12/28/2016-housing-economic-predictions/

https://patrick.net/Time+Stamp+your+2016+Recession+Call+Now

28   indigenous   ignore (0)   2016 Sep 2, 8:11am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Ironman says

Nope, MORE straws are being piled on the camels back, it's only a matter of time

I have changed my mind on that. Logan makes the point that the US will never pay off it's debt and the US is the reserve currency of the world. So the debt is irrelevant.

If the US loses the reserve currency status that will be the end of the US.

But that is not going to happen for the foreseeable future. The US does have the biggest GDP and that is not going to change overnight.

I am concerned about the erosion of the American work ethic and culture jeopardizing the US economy.
No doubt this is from the encroachment of government on the market place.

OTOH the encroachment of the military on the American and other economies is equally disruptive.

29   Strategist   ignore (2)   2016 Sep 2, 8:16am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

indigenous says

I have changed my mind on that. Logan makes the point that the US will never pay off it's debt and the US is the reserve currency of the world. So the debt is irrelevant.

If the US loses the reserve currency status that will be the end of the US.

Even countries that do not have the luxury of being reserve currencies, pile on debt for ever.

30   _   ignore (0)   2016 Sep 2, 8:21am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

indigenous says

If the US loses the reserve currency status that will be the end of the US.

This is the thesis that I call

Can the Boy band economies over lap the U.S.

You have to be kidding me.. that's my reply to all the Anti American Bears ...

Euro, Yuan, Yen... really.... that is the best case to bring down America

Rag tag economies with massive demographic issues

I hope all of you are alive for the next 20 years to realize how worthless your economic rants are...

Rookies...

Our wealth is bigger than all the countries total GDP

31   indigenous   ignore (0)   2016 Sep 2, 8:28am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Spare me. Why is England NOT the ruler of the world anymore? Things change. China is setup to take over that position at some point.

32   _   ignore (0)   2016 Sep 2, 8:30am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

indigenous says

Why is England NOT the ruler of the world anymore? Things change

England didn't have the mass immigration boom over the decades like America has... it's an island ... limits

We own this world and we are about to flex our muscles when the world gets very very old at the same time

We are the biggest economic freak of nature in history and it's due to our people!

33   indigenous   ignore (0)   2016 Sep 2, 8:44am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

For now, but if the government overreach continues sooner or later the perpetual money machine will come to an end.

34   _   ignore (0)   2016 Sep 2, 8:50am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

MMR says

Ironically, both of those guys hate him.

I don't buy it as I don't buy the rants on this page.... you people give away how smart you're by certain words... fake ranting for the sake of conversation.. that I get why

35   _   ignore (0)   2016 Sep 2, 8:51am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

On another note... Reading

Today's Job Report and the Reality Of The Job Market In America ( Education Matters)

https://loganmohtashami.com/2016/09/02/united-states-job-market-reality/

36   MMR   ignore (0)   2016 Sep 2, 8:53am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

indigenous says

OTOH the encroachment of the military on the American and other economies is equally disruptive.

Healthcare being 18% of gdp is a problem because it cannibalized other sectors. On an aggregate level, sick people can't produce

37   indigenous   ignore (0)   2016 Sep 2, 8:58am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

MMR says

Healthcare being 18% of gdp is a problem because it cannibalized other sectors. On an aggregate level, sick people can't produce

Government encroachment.

38   neplusultra57   ignore (0)   2016 Sep 2, 9:58am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

JOLTS-overview

"In summary, the economic cycle is getting old and we are going into, possibly, the longest economic expansion on record. The one caveat is that employment cost is rising and if prices can’t be raised or revenue doesn’t grow, then the expansion may slow. I would mark this a key data line to look at moving forward into 2017-2019."

Your JOLTs chart is my favorite, Logan. What do you use to determine if rising labor/wages is likely to translate into consumer demand at this late point in the cycle? Consumer demand is more important to me than corporate profit margins considering how much free cash corporations are sitting on.

39   junkmail   ignore (0)   2016 Sep 2, 10:17am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Ironman says

hopefully mommy and daddy will help bail him out

Not gonna happen.
Mom and dad are investing a ton of money in a hotel in Florida.
The only state so far that has a confirmed case of an infected mosquito.

Wonder which industry will suffer the most?

Also, there is a MAJOR sea rise issue in Florida. I have some contractor buddies and they are being run off their feet repairing water damage. Last time I was there, about 2 years ago, one of the major boulevards in Miami had huge sections underwater. No storm... just underwater.

"I have swampland in Florida I will sell you cheeeep" has never been so true.

40   _   ignore (0)   2016 Sep 2, 10:29am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

neplusultra57 says

What do you use to determine if rising labor/wages

ECI wage inflation tracker data ..

Economics is equilibrium.. real wages are at all time highs, the median income is taken out off context because it's tied to employment to population metrics

41   _   ignore (0)   2016 Sep 2, 10:30am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Shorter term duration 3 month and 6 month are picking up rather than the 12 month tied to claims and jolts

42   indigenous   ignore (0)   2016 Sep 2, 10:38am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Logan Mohtashami says

Economics is equilibrium.. real wages are at all time highs, the median income is taken out off context because it's tied to employment to population metrics

How do you figure? That chart says the that all time highs were in 2003

43   _   ignore (0)   2016 Sep 2, 10:44am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

indigenous says

How do you figure? That chart says the that all time highs were in 2003

This is Wage growth 3 month and it's always growing

One of the biggest mistakes I see people do and this comes from a lot media sites as well

YoY Growth is not a total growth chart...

This is the real wage growth X out Transfer payments

This was always the case... You're all programmed to believe other wise and the chart above shows constant growth

44   _   ignore (0)   2016 Sep 2, 10:45am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

I mean to me it's crazy to think this way but I can see how people can be confused because they see a lower trend data curve and they believe it has gone negative

This is why it's always better to listen to data miners than ideological ranters

45   indigenous   ignore (0)   2016 Sep 2, 10:50am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Give me a break, I glanced at that chart.

Point taken though.

Maybe it is better to listen to both. Because there are lies, damn lies, and then their is statistics.

46   _   ignore (0)   2016 Sep 2, 10:54am     ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag      

indigenous says

Give me a break, I glanced at that chart.

I see this everywhere and a lot bears try to make this out to be something that it isn't... Huge problem for them in this cycle and it really falls back to their lack of education in terms of reading data properly.

For example home prices are always growing post 2012 but the YoY growth is less that the peak year and that doesn't mean that prices are declining

That is the best way to explain because people get confused all the time with that

They really believe wages are lower than in 2000, not even close, it's even a real stupid thesis to even have.

But People get confused about the median income chart all the time, even so called experts

My biggest mistake in talking about wages before is that I should have explained in more detail that chart above ... I assumed people had a better grasp of how demographic economics work and that was a big no no ... will never make that mistake ever again

48   MMR   ignore (0)   2016 Sep 28, 1:58pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

indigenous says

Which states are going to be growing the fastest?

Sure as hell isn't California.

49   Tenpoundbass   ignore (14)   2016 Sep 28, 1:59pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

So your a Hirsute Annalist now?

50   _   ignore (0)   2016 Sep 28, 2:04pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

MMR says

Which states are going to be growing the fastest?

The fastest job growth is in the South and West -- but not in California or Texas

52   _   ignore (0)   2016 Sep 28, 2:23pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Tenpoundbass says

So your a Hirsute Annalist now?

In all honesty

A lot of these sales and starts estimate from economist and analyst where way to bullish early on the cycle. So people have taken notice to my work over the years and the slow and steady call on demand and housing starts.

This cycle

- soft demographics
- No more exotic loans
- major delay in household formation

So, not that it's almost 2017, we are getting near my 20202-2024 time frame, so this cycle was a whiff for the more extreme bullish people, so they wanted a perspective from the people that called the sales/start demand curve properly.

Plus, the recessions bears also need a lesson in economics as well.. Between the PMI Bears, Inflation Bears, QE bears, etc etc, we have never seen an economic cycle that has had more terrible recession calls than this one.

A lot Anti Fed, Pro Gold, Extreme left and right wing thinking, very unsophisticated economic theories.

Break down economic equilibrium in relationship with to housing economics

So far, only on this panel.. I really want a shot a Anti Federal Reserve Panel group! Either way I am going to have a say with that group.. Can't wait! Plus First time in Texas too

HOSTED BY

TONI MOSS, CEO, AMERICATALYST LLC and EUROCATALYST BV

TIM SKEET, Senior Advisor, INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKETS ASSOCIATION | ICMA

FEATURING

DOUG BENDT, SVP of Research and Product Development, RENTRANGE

MARK FLEMING, SVP and Chief Economist, FIRST AMERICAN FINANCIAL CORPORATION

LOGAN MOHTASHAMI, Senior Loan Manager, AMC LENDING GROUP

ALLAN WEISS, Founder and Chief Executive Officer, WEISS RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH

http://www.americatalyst.com/content/2016-americatalyst-fast-forward

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