patrick.net

I firmly do not believe we have crashed at all, as yet. I think the tech, financial, and housing burps over the past 15 years were only portents of a much, much greater failure yet to come. When it comes to equities and real estate prices, I would look back to 1994 for a landing zone.

The huge inflation the Austrian Economists expected is right in plain sight - in the inflation of assets rather than CPI variables.

For 22 years, if an asset class important enough to wealthy gamblers was threatened, the Fed/Treasury/Central Banks Cartel stepped up and covered the worst bets to keep the casino open.

I don't believe we will see THIS tower pancake down to a nice tidy pile of rubble, however. The collapsing structure will likely be accompanied by wars on many fronts. The actual possession of commodities rather than the paper varieties of them will matter entirely. Complex battles will be fought over those in physical possession of them, over the physical lanes of commerce by which those commodities can flow, and over the private organizations which have meaningful leverage.