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94,184,000 Working-Age Americans NOT In Labor Force: Thanks "Trade Agreements"
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2016 Oct 7, 6:21am 7,209 views 83 comments
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NAFTA went into effect in 1994. The decline started in 2000, which was after the stock market collapsed and Bush Jr. came into office and lowered taxes to give the SURPLUS back to the job creators.
Bush took office in 2001
Strategist
2016 Oct 7, 10:14am
Free trade and trade agreements benefits us. That's why we make those agreements.
For the record--free trade is a Republican platform. If you look at the votes in Congress, NAFTA was passed by Republicans over Democratic resistance. Yes, Clinton signed the deal negotiated and signed initially by Bush, but it was clearly a Republican bill. Free trade is, and always has been, a Republican ideal.
Free trade agreements have been supported by both parties, despite what some democrats may claim (especially as they collect unions' political contributions).
This includes massive loosening of quotas of in-sourcing labor to depress wages through H1-B measures (where skilled labor area can be massively depressed as can other tiers o workers' wages).
The only ones running for or holding national, elected political offices who openly oppose further "free trade" pacts are true political outsiders, reviled by both parties and globalists.
FNWGMOBDVZXDNW
2016 Oct 7, 11:01am
Bush took office in 2001
I'm giving 2000 as a rough number. It's not clear from the chart if the real trend down was 1999, 2000, 2001. There is always a short flat or downturn in a recession (like 1980 and 1990). So, what's different is not the turn down after the crash in 2000, but the fact that it didn't recover in the Bush years. For Obama, there is a big drop in the recession in 2008, and again, it progresses down instead of turning around. But, there's no causal effect shown here tying this trend to NAFTA or immigration for that matter.
Anyway, Trump's best argument is that NAFTA and immigration caused the supply of labor to increase so that low wage jobs have no wage growth. This chart likely reflects a wage suppression causing less dual income families. The other reason for less dual income families might be the fact that women are realizing that it hasn't always made their life better. That's something most of the anti-feminists on PatNet should be happy about. Maybe what is upsetting is that more women and less men are working now, and in particular, more men with less education in the rust-belt cannot get a decent job.
Oh Roberta, every time you put your hands on the keyboard, you look like an even BIGGER asshole:
Even bigger than you? That's a very high hurdle. There is plenty of reading out there on the labor rate, but since it uses words bigger than and or the you aren't going to be able to read it.
94,184,000 Working-Age Americans NOT In Labor Force: Thanks "Trade Agreements"
Where were all those trade agreements from 1946 (when labor rates first were tracked) until 1978 when the labor participation rate rose to todays' level for the first time? https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART/
Hey bob:
The labor PARTICIPATION RATE IS NEAR AN ABSOLUTE POST WWII LOW, and it even ECHOES LEVELS NOT SEEN SINCE THE POST-GREAT DEPRESSION ERA 1930's.
The labor PARTICIPATION RATE IS NEAR AN ABSOLUTE POST WWII LOW,
I'm sure he knows; he just does it to push peoples buttons
Free trade agreements have been supported by both parties, despite what some democrats may claim (especially as they collect unions' political contributions).
This includes massive loosening of quotas of in-sourcing labor to depress wages through H1-B measures (where skilled labor area can be massively depressed as can other tiers o workers' wages).
The only ones running for or holding national, elected political offices who openly oppose further "free trade" pacts are true political outsiders, reviled by both parties and globalists.
Nope--free trade is, and always has been, a Republican idea. Have there been some very conservative Democrats that also voted for free trade? Of course. That doesn't change the fact that free trade is a right wing wet dream.
_
2016 Oct 7, 2:22pm
94,184,000 Working-Age Americans NOT In Labor Force:
Single worst economic theory Anti American people push
Gold Bugs and MMT ....
Where did we lose 94,000,000
Manufacturing as a % of the workforce has been fallen since 1940 as most of the productivity gains came in that sector
We call this displacement technology
Also the smallest work force sector in America
Strategist
2016 Oct 7, 2:59pm
Manufacturing as a % of the workforce has been fallen since 1940 as most of the productivity gains came in that sector
We call this displacement technology
Also the smallest work force sector in America
Manufacturing jobs will continue to shrink. Either due to China, or due to robots. Why fight the tide? Americans should let it go.
_
2016 Oct 7, 3:03pm
Americans should let it go.
They did...
155 Million working
43 year lows in unemployment claims
Highest Job openings ever recorded on planet earth... even in manufacturing
This is war cry for the extreme left and right it makes no sense what so ever.. take the smallest sector in the U.S. which is in a recession due to oil and people try to give it a high variable multiplier effect
"43 year lows in unemployment claim."
The real rate of unemployment using the method once used upon a time under Reagan (as just one example) is around 11.7%.
The picture is even more grim when one considers that a record number of Americans who are working are underemployed, marginally attached to the work force, have 2 or even 3 part-time jobs, have declining real wages, etc.
If one were to group underemployed to the stats, real unemployment rate would ebb closer to 18%.
And then, we have the whole issue of those 94 million+ Americans of working age who either can't find work or sent out 5,000 resumes or went on 250 interviews without luck.
Logan is to economics what proctologists are to vaginas.
He's also hitting the crack pipe something fierce.
When the next severe downturn happens, Logan will move into his mom and dad's basement.
_
2016 Oct 7, 4:15pm
I understand why you Anti American trolls hate this country
Men .. are brave.... Americans are brave
Americans work
Anti American Trolls, hate Brave American men.. because they can never ever be that strong
hence why they hide behind fake names
Logan, I guarantee you that I have more ledger and liquid wealth than you. I know this because you chose to post details about your personal finances, and it's not even a close call, really.
My or your level of wealth really isn't material, however, except to the degree you raise the issue and insinuate that those having your less than rosy prognostication about the future direction of the economy are somehow unsuccessful financially themselves.
I personally know a former partner of Nassim Taleb while at Empirica Capital LLC who now lives in Northport Michigan (my child goes to his childrens' school), who is about 5,000x wealthier than you (and much more so than I), and he is also a literal genius who made hundreds of millions shorting the world in 2007-2008, and if you think I'm pessimistic, you don't comprehend the meaning of that adjective.
_
2016 Oct 7, 4:26pm
Logan, I guarantee you that I have more ledger and liquid wealth than you.
Give me your name then
_
2016 Oct 7, 4:29pm
Your hatred for this country is clear...
Can't read data worth squat...
Rag tag anti American trolls all on this site....
Only because you hate America that you sit behind a fake name and cry everyday about this country
Men... don't cry... Men Don't beg
Americans don't beg
Only Trolls do ....
I will do what ever I can to destroy the extreme left and right and their worthless economic rants... Because that's what Americans do .... they don't cry or hide behind fake names....
They always fight to progress forward
I don't post personal information on the web. Bad form.
I will generalize truthfully when it's in response to those with bad form, who are ignorant of such basic things a the business cycle, the credit-debt/consumption-demand curve, etc., and who make such bad decisions, however (such as posting ho,e address/office info).
_
2016 Oct 7, 4:48pm
Bad form.
I don't believe that you believe that this country is as miserable as your fake name says it is
All of you are educated men and women...
You create left wing and right wing people on this site but you give up your education when you talk normal
They're asking me to debate David Stockman at the end of the month... If I get that chance on air
I am going to show all of you Why the Anti Fed crowd has been wrong and why the Anti American crowd has been wrong...
I pray I can get the video on this so you all can hear... why we kick ass as a country!!
Why all of you are wealthy because of it
Hey bob:
The labor PARTICIPATION RATE IS NEAR AN ABSOLUTE POST WWII LOW, and it even ECHOES LEVELS NOT SEEN SINCE THE POST-GREAT DEPRESSION ERA 1930's.
You are obviously too stupid to click on the link and look at the chart? This has to be yet another ironbrain alt account. Only ironbrain is mathematically challenged enough to honestly believe believe 62% down from 67% is near an absolute post WWII low of 57.5%.
Hey dumbass, no one knows the 1930's participation rate, records weren't kept until 1946. You are part of the just make shit up movement I see.
Great job adding to the conversation there ironbrain. Or at least making such a fool out of yourself as to be entertaining.
The labor PARTICIPATION RATE IS NEAR AN ABSOLUTE POST WWII LOW,
I'm sure he knows; he just does it to push peoples buttons
You can't look at the chart either? or have you been taking math lessons from ironbrain? Obviously a trump voter, it's true because hey I just made it up.
Logan, you're a nice enough guy, and literate on specific economic matters such as mortgage originations and such, but you wander too far from your core knowledge base and into pure Pollyanna too often, and it makes you look really ignorant.
It's really bad that american voters haven't had any say in where this country has ended up after + 200 years.
DAMN THOSE ELECTED OFFICIALS! IT'S ALL THEIR FAULT!
_
2016 Oct 7, 4:55pm
Its funny, you guys still think of me as a loan officer... when I am asked to speak at national conferences about economics
I promise you, if I get the shot against David Stockman... bring down the Anti Fed crew ..
Math, Facts and data wins!
Limf (x) =sky
x-a
http://www.americatalyst.com/content/2016-americatalyst-fast-forward
Heraclitusstudent
2016 Oct 7, 5:02pm
Men .. are brave.... Americans are brave
Americans work
None of these charts change the story.
- If jobs were lost due to technology, we would be in a productivity boom. We aren't. This explanation just doesn't compute.
- The number of jobs in manufacturing is large. Apple employs in its supply chain 10x the number of its US employees working on development.
- Each manufacturing job did support probably 10x as many service jobs around them. (food, retail, etc...)
- many of the jobs you show are minimum wage or part time, do not replace manufacturing income.
- Instead as we lost the backbone of manufacturing we had to compensate that lost income with debt. The US national debt grew an average 9% per year since 1980.
This, coupled with not-in-workforce statistics, shows eloquently that the current globalization is not working well and is a very negative force for a large part of the population.
Denying there is a problem is silly.
_
2016 Oct 7, 5:02pm
- If jobs were lost due to technology, we would be in a productivity boom. We aren't. This explanation just doesn't compute.
What you're not accounting for are the job created by technology and why we have 155 Million working
_
2016 Oct 7, 5:03pm
- The number of jobs in manufacturing is large.
We have the highest job opening for manufacturing in this cycle and it's the lowest work force group we have in America
I'm sure he knows;
Sadly, Bob doesn't know. Just scroll his comments and you'll see he adds nothing to the conversation, and being an idiot is his "normal":
https://patrick.net/comments.php?a=1795
Bob is in the running for the most useless member at Patnet and neck and neck with Roberta.
I see everything you've added to the conversation. Nothing at all as usual. Anything at all to back up your bullshit? No, of course not. Here is BLS (you know, the people who come with the statistics in the first place) explaining it for you. http://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-4/people-who-are-not-in-the-labor-force-why-arent-they-working.htm
Of course this is totally useless link for you because a) it is far beyond your comprehension, it has numbers and multi syllable words int b) if you were to somehow magically gain the ability to comprehend it you still wouldn't have the desire to since you are without a doubt the most proud of being wilfully uninformed person on the planet. The ignorant and proud of it movement has uses you for their poster child.
_
2016 Oct 7, 5:04pm
- Each manufacturing job did support probably 10x as many service jobs around them. (food, retail, etc...)
I would love for you to prove this thesis, this is a dying industry for decades
output is awesome because of technology advances not trade
_
2016 Oct 7, 5:06pm
- many of the jobs you show are minimum wage or part time, do not replace manufacturing income.
82% full time workers
Real wages are at all time highs
Multi jobs as a % of workers are at 20 years lows
Don't make me bring out the median and mean income for educated people it will shut down a lot non sense but I will if you want
_
2016 Oct 7, 5:07pm
The US national debt grew an average 9% per year since 1980.
Not a problem what so ever
Strategist
2016 Oct 7, 5:08pm
- If jobs were lost due to technology, we would be in a productivity boom. We aren't. This explanation just doesn't compute.
Productivity goes in spurts. It will catch up.
- Each manufacturing job did support probably 10x as many service jobs around them. (food, retail, etc...)
All jobs support other jobs. (multiplier effect) Technology is supporting a lot of high paying jobs. What would you rather have......low paying manufacturing jobs, or high paying technology jobs
Logan, you're pointing to the very real problem of higher efficiencies & productivity (culminating in autonomous or nearly-so production - think 13 man-hours to produce a vehicle today compared to 80 hours 60 years ago, or self-checkout supermarket lanes) supplanting he need for as much human labor.
In fact, some credible economists believe the future, increasingly autonomous machinations of production will foment revolutions and wars.
However, you need to build a more specific case as to how increasing productivity and further automation has impacted the labor non-participation levels on a relative basis versus foreign competition/trade liberalization (without equal laws, constraints, regulations, environmental standards - externalities, etc.).
Heraclitusstudent
2016 Oct 7, 5:13pm
I would love for you to prove this thesis, this is a dying industry for decades
I'm talking of the way it used to be. One person with a solid income, spending in the community, with the money circulating creating jobs.
Now you have only service, the income is not enough.
The only way it sort of works right now is because of massive debt growth.
Balance the deficit and your graphs would look catastrophic in no time.
_
2016 Oct 7, 5:17pm
However, you need to build a more specific case as to how increasing productivity
The reject the thesis of automation killing jobs
We have the highest job opening print ever recorded in human history today at 5,900,000 in all sectors of the U.S. even manufacturing
"Robots Are Not Taking All The Jobs"
https://loganmohtashami.com/2016/07/02/robots-are-not-taking-all-the-jobs/
"U.S. Job Market Reality"
https://loganmohtashami.com/2016/09/02/united-states-job-market-reality/
2016 was the highest job opening to lowest unemployment claim spread every recorded in human history last month
Labor shortage, not a job one
Heraclitusstudent
2016 Oct 7, 5:17pm
Technology is supporting a lot of high paying jobs.
Really? What fraction of US jobs are good paying high tech jobs?
Again if this is the case, why do we need the 9%/yrs debt growth? And why are so many people left behind?
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Look at chart since NAFTA was passed and China was granted Most Favored Nation trade Status!
This is fucking criminal!
And the "globalists" want TPP and other "free trade pacts" passed which would throw more AMERICANS OIT OF LABOR FORCE and DEPRESS WAGES FURTHER!
http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/susan-jones/94184000-not-labor-force-labor-force-participation-rises
There's a fucking all out war to extinguish the sovereignty of The United States, which Trump is speaking to, which is why the globalists who run multinational trade & commerce, and own the politicians as puppets, who have no allegiance to any one nation, are trying to crush him with every resource they have, including their Media.