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Time is NOW: Predict next President-elect. Revisit *Tonight*. Don't be shy.


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2016 Nov 2, 10:39am   15,686 views  105 comments

by freespeechforever   ➕follow (2)   💰tip   ignore  

Trump.

Revolution is in the air, driven by largest block of angry, formerly disenfranchised voters in modern-American history.

Trump will get MANY votes of those in their 40s, 50s and 60s who've not voted in many, many years (maybe decades).

It's Brexit on steroids, driven by many of the reasons cited by Michael Moore.

It doesn't hurt his odds that Hillary is an utter piece-of-shit who causes even most Democratic-affiliated voters the need to hold their noses.

Biggest surprises:

1) Trump will win 80%+ of male vote.

2) Hillary's "massive" edge with women will fizzle into less than 9% advantage.

3) African-Americans will only cast 70% of the # of votes for Hillary that they did for Obama in 2008 or 2012.

4) Millennials will not turn out in anywhere near the numbers that they did in 2008, and those who do will vote in surprisingly large numbers for Jill Stein.

5) Trump will win North Carolina, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona and Pennsylvania (in addition to Florida & Ohio - he'll win by double digits in Ohio).

#EstablishmentInFullPanic

#AmericanBrexit

#MiddleClassRevolution

« First        Comments 14 - 53 of 105       Last »     Search these comments

14   8e6e0   2016 Nov 2, 1:48pm  

YesYNot says

...the constant drip of wikileaks and the Comey bombthere wasn't any new info there, and it doesn't appear that we'll get any...

15   Peter P   2016 Nov 2, 4:52pm  

joshuatrio says

His recent articles are written more along the lines of, "oh shit, Trump could pull this off."

Nate "Plastic" Silver did the same thing during the primaries. Some people just never learn.

16   zzyzzx   2016 Nov 2, 5:04pm  

YesYNot says

But many votes are already cast, and most people have already made up their mind

1. In some states you can change your vote.
2. I'm guessing that undecided voters are most likely going to wait until election day.

17   MAGA   2016 Nov 2, 5:29pm  

If illary was a male, would "he" have a chance of winning? My guess is no. Lib's are so narrow minded, voting for illary just because she is a femaile.

18   MAGA   2016 Nov 2, 5:32pm  

freespeechforever says

Trump will get MANY votes of those in their 40s, 50s and 60s who've not voted in many, many years (maybe decades).

I am in my 60's and I voted (early) for Trump! Many of my fellow veterans are also voting for Trump.

19   MisdemeanorRebel   2016 Nov 2, 5:37pm  

Unfortunately I can't do this because I'm not in the States right now, but if anybody can, go line the streets or highly trafficked areas on Tuesday with signs, loudness, and turn it down only for Trump.

Enthusiasm is contagious and most want to be on the winning team. Somebody who is undecided and drives past 2-3 spirited Trump groups on the way to the polls is going to be very effected by that. Whereas you know most Hillbullies are schlepping, shuffling sadly to the polls and won't be out in large numbers except maybe it the "Dark" Centers of SJW Leftism.

20   FortWayne   2016 Nov 2, 5:37pm  

I think Hillary will win.

For the record I'm voting for Trump.

21   RC2006   2016 Nov 2, 5:49pm  

Trump 47% Kaine 23% Johnson 9% Stein 5%
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In truth who knows, a lot can happen in a week especially with this circus.

22   Mrs Wonderful   2016 Nov 2, 6:11pm  

Daddy says if you don't vote for him you can go fuck yourself.

23   zzyzzx   2016 Nov 2, 7:41pm  

rpanic01 says

In truth who knows, a lot can happen in a week especially with this circus.

I'm surprised that the mud slinging right now isn't much worse.

24   MisdemeanorRebel   2016 Nov 2, 7:45pm  

zzyzzx is deplorable says

I'm surprised that the mud slinging right now isn't much worse.

Me too. They're rehashing the Marchando crap, but that doesn't really bring in new voters. The Hairy Armpits and White Knights swayed by that are already swayed. I'm not 100% sure they have any dirty crap left to pull, at least not anything major. I think the Pussy Grabbing + the Parade of D-list Celebs/Non-Profit Dem-connected Upper Class Blondes was the their major Oct. Surprise.

PS Watch all them recant if Trump wins.

She also leads polling on almost no issue, so changing the topics won't work.

25   MisdemeanorRebel   2016 Nov 2, 9:30pm  

If they're going to make connections betwenn Trump and black church burnings, it's over. That's a less effective old standby. Vast majority are insurance scams.

26   HEY YOU   2016 Nov 2, 11:43pm  

MrWonderful says

Daddy says if you don't vote for him you can go fuck yourself.

FUCK Daddy!

27   HEY YOU   2016 Nov 2, 11:45pm  

MrWonderful says

Daddy says if you don't vote for him you can go fuck yourself.

FUCK Daddy!

jvolstad says

I am in my 60's and I voted (early) for Trump!

Even atheist will pray for you now!

28   HEY YOU   2016 Nov 2, 11:47pm  

Pray for FortWayne too!

Wait! There are unforgivable sins?

29   RealEstateIsBetterThanStocks   2016 Nov 3, 1:33am  

HEY YOU = Mr Wonderful?

30   joshuatrio   2016 Nov 3, 5:08am  

joshuatrio says

I've also been watching Nate's "nowcast" - and Trump is going up about 5% every single day. I'll predict his map shows around a 50/50 split on election day, in order to save his ass/reputation, from being so wrong on Trump from the beginning.

So far, I'm spot on - up around 5% today. His now cast had Trumps chances at 28% yesterday. He now has Trump at 33.7%...

So yeah, Nate's gonna dog this one out and go 50/50 come election day - that way his bullshit can continue on and he doesn't look like a fool when Trump wins.

31   zzyzzx   2016 Nov 3, 6:25am  

Thunderlips Russian Agent 0069 says

If they're going to make connections betwenn Trump and black church burnings, it's over. That's a less effective old standby. Vast majority are insurance scams.

32   Blurtman   2016 Nov 3, 7:23am  

Chuck Norris by a landslide!

33   FNWGMOBDVZXDNW   2016 Nov 3, 7:43am  

Thunderlips Russian Agent 0069 says

Me too. They're rehashing the Marchando crap, but that doesn't really bring in new voters.

Machado was an attempt to pull Humptie Trumptie off of the teleprompter script. But Kelly-anne (not a hooker name) Conway has him well trained at the point. Hillary's going to have to try some other buttons.

34   FNWGMOBDVZXDNW   2016 Nov 3, 7:47am  

joshuatrio says

Nate's gonna dog this one out and go 50/50 come election day - that way his bullshit can continue on and he doesn't look like a fool when Trump wins.

Nate's predictions are based on the polls. If the polls continue to shift, his calculated probability will continue to shift. When you see that all tires are round, do you see a conspiracy theory among manufacturers?

35   anonymous   2016 Nov 3, 8:10am  

I'm not a Trump fan, but I hope we wins because Hillary is the source of all evil. However, I have this feeling that Hillary is going to win because the establishment will find a way.

36   joshuatrio   2016 Nov 3, 8:13am  

YesYNot says

Nate's predictions are based on the polls.

Sure they are.

Just like his predictions of Trump in the primaries.

37   lostand confused   2016 Nov 3, 8:37am  

I have been saying from the start-Trump it will be. In between during the tape scandal-had soem doubts. But now-I think this country is smart and know a 3rd world corrupt leader when they see one.

38   FNWGMOBDVZXDNW   2016 Nov 3, 8:49am  

He has algorithms to take into account other things. But the primary input is polls.

Nate's models were accurate in the primaries.

As of May 18:

The FiveThirtyEight “polls-only” model has correctly predicted the winner in 52 of 57 (91 percent) primaries and caucuses so far in 2016, and our related “polls-plus” model has gone 51-for-57 (89 percent).

He may have speculated incorrectly as he branched out to punditry, but that doesn't mean that the polls and Nate's models were horrible.

39   joshuatrio   2016 Nov 3, 9:03am  

YesYNot says

He may have speculated incorrectly as he branched out to punditry, but that doesn't mean that the polls and Nate's models were horrible.

He was still wrong, and let his own bias get in the way - which is what's happening (again) now.

You'll find Trump up in a large majority of polls which would put him in the lead - yet, Nate's nowcast model is NOT up to date and still shows Hillary in the lead in states where Trump is now winning (NH, VA, MN). Even PA is starting to come into question.

Nate is playing it safe, giving Trump 5% a day - to give each candidate 50% by voting day, so his lame ass is covered. It took him a whole WEEK to turn Florida red, when Trump was winning that state a while back.

40   zzyzzx   2016 Nov 3, 9:06am  

joshuatrio says

Trump is now winning (NH, VA, MN). Even PA is starting to come into question.

Trump is supposedly winning in MN, but not PA??? Seems the other way around is much more likely. Disclosure: I've been to PA many many times, but never to MN.

41   MisdemeanorRebel   2016 Nov 3, 9:39am  

If this thing goes to the Electoral College, and Trump wins the popular vote, and there are "Unfaithful electors" who swing it to Hillary, all the same people who are moaning and groaning about "Democracy is Danger" today are going to be Applauding the College.

42   BayArea   2016 Nov 3, 9:40am  

Well... in general the mainstream media, citing polls and electoral mappings scenarios, is leading us to believe that Hillary is an overwhelming favorite despite Trump gaining a little steam in the last week or two.

*If* Trump wins this, it will further reduce the little I currently believe coming from our media.

43   BayArea   2016 Nov 3, 9:58am  

Ironman says

BayArea says

Well... in general the mainstream media, citing polls and electoral mappings scenarios, is leading us to believe that Hillary is an overwhelming favorite despite Trump gaining a little steam in the last week or two.

It's your choice if you want to believe the polls. The majority of the population beileves the Headlines put out my the media.

You want the truth? Go to this link showing current polling and drill down into the samples and methodology they're using to give Hillary the lead. You'll be surprised. In EVERY poll showing Hillary ahead, there is a 5% - 14% over sample of Dems to get that result.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html

Ironman, ya it is interesting isn't it?

Nov 8th will put it all to rest because I don't know what to believe anymore.

44   FNWGMOBDVZXDNW   2016 Nov 3, 10:22am  

joshuatrio says

He was still wrong, and let his own bias get in the way - which is what's happening (again) now

You're conflating his punditry with the models.
joshuatrio says

You'll find Trump up in a large majority of polls which would put him in the lead - yet, Nate's nowcast model is NOT up to date and still shows Hillary in the lead in states where Trump is now winning (NH, VA, MN). Even PA is starting to come into question.

Nate's nowcast (like realclearpolitics) is a trailing indicator. If you want to average over many polls, you have to be behind. That's the nature of moving averages when you don't know the future. Generally, after some event happens, the polls spike and revert. No one knows if the recent swing in the polls is going to continue through the election or revert to the mean as more time passes. Even the most recent polls are trailing indicators, b/c they come out a couple days after most of the calls were made. So, they will not show the reversion to mean until a few days after it happens. Nate's forecast will be trailing that as well.

45   HEY YOU   2016 Nov 3, 11:45am  

Predicting the election is a waste of time.
Dumb asses posting the latest poll tells me who the next worst president will be.

46   Gary Anderson   2016 Nov 3, 12:29pm  

freespeechforever says

Revolution is in the air, driven by largest block of angry, formerly disenfranchised voters in modern-American history.

So, nobody disenfranchised these voters. And if they are for revolution, why should they vote? Revolution comes from violence. And they probably want that too. freespeechforever says

It's Brexit on steroids

Brexit is about sovereignty from the Eurozone. Brexit is about keeping a national currency instead of the Euro. We have our own currency, Einstein. And that is the good part of Brexit. You only want to take the bad part of Brexit, the racist part. Many voted for Brexit not even knowing the importance of keeping your own currency.

47   Tenpoundbass   2016 Nov 3, 12:42pm  

It's so freaking retarded the Liberals here don't remember them mansplaining to me back in March what the voting odds meant.
When they were all saying that Trump didn't have a path to winning the nomination. And Nate's polls agreed.

Selective memory, you guys should put that to use somehow.

48   missing   2016 Nov 3, 12:48pm  

I am more irretated by supposedly intelligent people who demonstrate shallow thinking than by obvious idiots doing what idiots normally do.

49   MisdemeanorRebel   2016 Nov 3, 1:11pm  

Just don't vote for a woman with a track record of failure, who refuses to answer whether her "No Fly" zone will shoot down Russian planes.

She's been so bellicose in this election, her ability to conduct Diplomacy with Russia is seriously compromised. Also she will promote Victoria Nuland, and she's too closely associated with legendary Human Rights Violators Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

Hillary's longest career was as a Corporate Lawyer.

50   _   2016 Nov 3, 1:25pm  

Clinton, I ran many models here even giving Trump Ohio Florida and Arizona and he still loses

PA is the key here... if that state could turn Trump you have a mathematical case he could win.. but that's not the case

51   missing   2016 Nov 3, 1:27pm  

My impression is that Colorado is the key.

52   FuckTheMainstreamMedia   2016 Nov 3, 1:28pm  

Logan Mohtashami says

Clinton, I ran many models here even giving Trump Ohio Florida and Arizona and he still loses

PA is the key here... if that state could turn Trump you have a mathematical case he could win.. but that's not the case

Wait, RCP has Pennsylvania AND Virginia in the margin of error and listed as Tossups....and those polls didn't include this past weekends events:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5964.html

53   _   2016 Nov 3, 1:30pm  

FP says

My impression is that Colorado is the key.

This is the most bullish Trump Map I can come up with ... and he still loses

Be mindful on this

A. Clinton is doing much better with independents than Trump
B. College educated White Males for the first time ever have turned polled Democrat
C. X factor is how many Republicans ( Like Myself) don't even vote Hard to model data line out in polls outside the ones that say 20%-30% of Republicans won't vote Trump

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