patrick.net

I think Hillary will win.

For the record I'm voting for Trump.

Trump 47% Kaine 23% Johnson 9% Stein 5%
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In truth who knows, a lot can happen in a week especially with this circus.

Daddy says if you don't vote for him you can go fuck yourself.

rpanic01 says

In truth who knows, a lot can happen in a week especially with this circus.

I'm surprised that the mud slinging right now isn't much worse.

zzyzzx is deplorable says

I'm surprised that the mud slinging right now isn't much worse.

Me too. They're rehashing the Marchando crap, but that doesn't really bring in new voters. The Hairy Armpits and White Knights swayed by that are already swayed. I'm not 100% sure they have any dirty crap left to pull, at least not anything major. I think the Pussy Grabbing + the Parade of D-list Celebs/Non-Profit Dem-connected Upper Class Blondes was the their major Oct. Surprise.

PS Watch all them recant if Trump wins.

She also leads polling on almost no issue, so changing the topics won't work.

If they're going to make connections betwenn Trump and black church burnings, it's over. That's a less effective old standby. Vast majority are insurance scams.

MrWonderful says

Daddy says if you don't vote for him you can go fuck yourself.

FUCK Daddy!

MrWonderful says

Daddy says if you don't vote for him you can go fuck yourself.

FUCK Daddy!

jvolstad says

I am in my 60's and I voted (early) for Trump!

Even atheist will pray for you now!

Pray for FortWayne too!

Wait! There are unforgivable sins?

HEY YOU = Mr Wonderful?

joshuatrio says

I've also been watching Nate's "nowcast" - and Trump is going up about 5% every single day. I'll predict his map shows around a 50/50 split on election day, in order to save his ass/reputation, from being so wrong on Trump from the beginning.

So far, I'm spot on - up around 5% today. His now cast had Trumps chances at 28% yesterday. He now has Trump at 33.7%...

So yeah, Nate's gonna dog this one out and go 50/50 come election day - that way his bullshit can continue on and he doesn't look like a fool when Trump wins.

Thunderlips Russian Agent 0069 says

If they're going to make connections betwenn Trump and black church burnings, it's over. That's a less effective old standby. Vast majority are insurance scams.

Chuck Norris by a landslide!

Thunderlips Russian Agent 0069 says

Me too. They're rehashing the Marchando crap, but that doesn't really bring in new voters.

Machado was an attempt to pull Humptie Trumptie off of the teleprompter script. But Kelly-anne (not a hooker name) Conway has him well trained at the point. Hillary's going to have to try some other buttons.

joshuatrio says

Nate's gonna dog this one out and go 50/50 come election day - that way his bullshit can continue on and he doesn't look like a fool when Trump wins.

Nate's predictions are based on the polls. If the polls continue to shift, his calculated probability will continue to shift. When you see that all tires are round, do you see a conspiracy theory among manufacturers?

I'm not a Trump fan, but I hope we wins because Hillary is the source of all evil. However, I have this feeling that Hillary is going to win because the establishment will find a way.

YesYNot says

Nate's predictions are based on the polls.

Sure they are.

Just like his predictions of Trump in the primaries.

He has algorithms to take into account other things. But the primary input is polls.

Nate's models were accurate in the primaries.

As of May 18:

The FiveThirtyEight “polls-only” model has correctly predicted the winner in 52 of 57 (91 percent) primaries and caucuses so far in 2016, and our related “polls-plus” model has gone 51-for-57 (89 percent).

He may have speculated incorrectly as he branched out to punditry, but that doesn't mean that the polls and Nate's models were horrible.

YesYNot says

He may have speculated incorrectly as he branched out to punditry, but that doesn't mean that the polls and Nate's models were horrible.

He was still wrong, and let his own bias get in the way - which is what's happening (again) now.

You'll find Trump up in a large majority of polls which would put him in the lead - yet, Nate's nowcast model is NOT up to date and still shows Hillary in the lead in states where Trump is now winning (NH, VA, MN). Even PA is starting to come into question.

Nate is playing it safe, giving Trump 5% a day - to give each candidate 50% by voting day, so his lame ass is covered. It took him a whole WEEK to turn Florida red, when Trump was winning that state a while back.

joshuatrio says

Trump is now winning (NH, VA, MN). Even PA is starting to come into question.

Trump is supposedly winning in MN, but not PA??? Seems the other way around is much more likely. Disclosure: I've been to PA many many times, but never to MN.

If this thing goes to the Electoral College, and Trump wins the popular vote, and there are "Unfaithful electors" who swing it to Hillary, all the same people who are moaning and groaning about "Democracy is Danger" today are going to be Applauding the College.

Well... in general the mainstream media, citing polls and electoral mappings scenarios, is leading us to believe that Hillary is an overwhelming favorite despite Trump gaining a little steam in the last week or two.

*If* Trump wins this, it will further reduce the little I currently believe coming from our media.

Ironman says

BayArea says

Well... in general the mainstream media, citing polls and electoral mappings scenarios, is leading us to believe that Hillary is an overwhelming favorite despite Trump gaining a little steam in the last week or two.

It's your choice if you want to believe the polls. The majority of the population beileves the Headlines put out my the media.

You want the truth? Go to this link showing current polling and drill down into the samples and methodology they're using to give Hillary the lead. You'll be surprised. In EVERY poll showing Hillary ahead, there is a 5% - 14% over sample of Dems to get that result.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html

Ironman, ya it is interesting isn't it?

Nov 8th will put it all to rest because I don't know what to believe anymore.

joshuatrio says

He was still wrong, and let his own bias get in the way - which is what's happening (again) now

You're conflating his punditry with the models.
joshuatrio says

You'll find Trump up in a large majority of polls which would put him in the lead - yet, Nate's nowcast model is NOT up to date and still shows Hillary in the lead in states where Trump is now winning (NH, VA, MN). Even PA is starting to come into question.

Nate's nowcast (like realclearpolitics) is a trailing indicator. If you want to average over many polls, you have to be behind. That's the nature of moving averages when you don't know the future. Generally, after some event happens, the polls spike and revert. No one knows if the recent swing in the polls is going to continue through the election or revert to the mean as more time passes. Even the most recent polls are trailing indicators, b/c they come out a couple days after most of the calls were made. So, they will not show the reversion to mean until a few days after it happens. Nate's forecast will be trailing that as well.

Predicting the election is a waste of time.
Dumb asses posting the latest poll tells me who the next worst president will be.

freespeechforever says

Revolution is in the air, driven by largest block of angry, formerly disenfranchised voters in modern-American history.

So, nobody disenfranchised these voters. And if they are for revolution, why should they vote? Revolution comes from violence. And they probably want that too. freespeechforever says

It's Brexit on steroids

Brexit is about sovereignty from the Eurozone. Brexit is about keeping a national currency instead of the Euro. We have our own currency, Einstein. And that is the good part of Brexit. You only want to take the bad part of Brexit, the racist part. Many voted for Brexit not even knowing the importance of keeping your own currency.

It's so freaking retarded the Liberals here don't remember them mansplaining to me back in March what the voting odds meant.
When they were all saying that Trump didn't have a path to winning the nomination. And Nate's polls agreed.

Selective memory, you guys should put that to use somehow.

I am more irretated by supposedly intelligent people who demonstrate shallow thinking than by obvious idiots doing what idiots normally do.

Just don't vote for a woman with a track record of failure, who refuses to answer whether her "No Fly" zone will shoot down Russian planes.

She's been so bellicose in this election, her ability to conduct Diplomacy with Russia is seriously compromised. Also she will promote Victoria Nuland, and she's too closely associated with legendary Human Rights Violators Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

Hillary's longest career was as a Corporate Lawyer.

Clinton, I ran many models here even giving Trump Ohio Florida and Arizona and he still loses

PA is the key here... if that state could turn Trump you have a mathematical case he could win.. but that's not the case

My impression is that Colorado is the key.

Logan Mohtashami says

Clinton, I ran many models here even giving Trump Ohio Florida and Arizona and he still loses

PA is the key here... if that state could turn Trump you have a mathematical case he could win.. but that's not the case

Wait, RCP has Pennsylvania AND Virginia in the margin of error and listed as Tossups....and those polls didn't include this past weekends events:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5964.html

FP says

My impression is that Colorado is the key.

This is the most bullish Trump Map I can come up with ... and he still loses

Be mindful on this

A. Clinton is doing much better with independents than Trump
B. College educated White Males for the first time ever have turned polled Democrat
C. X factor is how many Republicans ( Like Myself) don't even vote Hard to model data line out in polls outside the ones that say 20%-30% of Republicans won't vote Trump

Thunderlips Russian Agent 0069 says

She's been so bellicose in this election, her ability to conduct Diplomacy with Russia is seriously compromised.

That's silly. Putin is fucking with our election. Her calling him out on it after our President has already done so is not ruining her ability to negotiate with Russia. Even if Hillary went beyond the norm and vilified Russia based on fiction, Putin would still work with her. He'd have something in common with her, and they could bullshit about it behind closed doors before discussing ways to move forward. Trump's ignorance will prevent him from successfully negotiating with Russia or anyone else for that matter. His unwillingness to read or listen to others means that all he will have is is 'instincts.'

YesYNot says

Putin is fucking with our election.

Evidence?

Logan Mohtashami says

You copied my map.

If you had already I added this, I apologize, I have many maps ... this is the only Pro Trump Map outside the Tie Map

This gives you a baseline of how Ugly it could get if

Clinton wins independents ( Romney won that last time)
College educated Whites vote democrat
Republicans in general have a 20%-30% no turn out vote
Bernie People come out and vote for Clinton

Clinton does not give a fuck about the world (at least the lives of regular people) and puts her personal interest ahead of America.

The Clinton foundation exists because it benefits her family. The rest is secondary.

Why do you think Clinton is winning independents? Trump would be down 10 or more of that was the case. Recent CBS poll has Trump up with independents 42-38.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/five-days-to-go-the-presidential-race-tightens-cbsnyt-poll/

And why aren't you using the RCP map?