patrick.net

He has algorithms to take into account other things. But the primary input is polls.

Nate's models were accurate in the primaries.

As of May 18:

The FiveThirtyEight “polls-only” model has correctly predicted the winner in 52 of 57 (91 percent) primaries and caucuses so far in 2016, and our related “polls-plus” model has gone 51-for-57 (89 percent).

He may have speculated incorrectly as he branched out to punditry, but that doesn't mean that the polls and Nate's models were horrible.

YesYNot says

He may have speculated incorrectly as he branched out to punditry, but that doesn't mean that the polls and Nate's models were horrible.

He was still wrong, and let his own bias get in the way - which is what's happening (again) now.

You'll find Trump up in a large majority of polls which would put him in the lead - yet, Nate's nowcast model is NOT up to date and still shows Hillary in the lead in states where Trump is now winning (NH, VA, MN). Even PA is starting to come into question.

Nate is playing it safe, giving Trump 5% a day - to give each candidate 50% by voting day, so his lame ass is covered. It took him a whole WEEK to turn Florida red, when Trump was winning that state a while back.

joshuatrio says

Trump is now winning (NH, VA, MN). Even PA is starting to come into question.

Trump is supposedly winning in MN, but not PA??? Seems the other way around is much more likely. Disclosure: I've been to PA many many times, but never to MN.

If this thing goes to the Electoral College, and Trump wins the popular vote, and there are "Unfaithful electors" who swing it to Hillary, all the same people who are moaning and groaning about "Democracy is Danger" today are going to be Applauding the College.

Well... in general the mainstream media, citing polls and electoral mappings scenarios, is leading us to believe that Hillary is an overwhelming favorite despite Trump gaining a little steam in the last week or two.

*If* Trump wins this, it will further reduce the little I currently believe coming from our media.

Ironman says

BayArea says

Well... in general the mainstream media, citing polls and electoral mappings scenarios, is leading us to believe that Hillary is an overwhelming favorite despite Trump gaining a little steam in the last week or two.

It's your choice if you want to believe the polls. The majority of the population beileves the Headlines put out my the media.

You want the truth? Go to this link showing current polling and drill down into the samples and methodology they're using to give Hillary the lead. You'll be surprised. In EVERY poll showing Hillary ahead, there is a 5% - 14% over sample of Dems to get that result.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html

Ironman, ya it is interesting isn't it?

Nov 8th will put it all to rest because I don't know what to believe anymore.

joshuatrio says

He was still wrong, and let his own bias get in the way - which is what's happening (again) now

You're conflating his punditry with the models.
joshuatrio says

You'll find Trump up in a large majority of polls which would put him in the lead - yet, Nate's nowcast model is NOT up to date and still shows Hillary in the lead in states where Trump is now winning (NH, VA, MN). Even PA is starting to come into question.

Nate's nowcast (like realclearpolitics) is a trailing indicator. If you want to average over many polls, you have to be behind. That's the nature of moving averages when you don't know the future. Generally, after some event happens, the polls spike and revert. No one knows if the recent swing in the polls is going to continue through the election or revert to the mean as more time passes. Even the most recent polls are trailing indicators, b/c they come out a couple days after most of the calls were made. So, they will not show the reversion to mean until a few days after it happens. Nate's forecast will be trailing that as well.

Predicting the election is a waste of time.
Dumb asses posting the latest poll tells me who the next worst president will be.

freespeechforever says

Revolution is in the air, driven by largest block of angry, formerly disenfranchised voters in modern-American history.

So, nobody disenfranchised these voters. And if they are for revolution, why should they vote? Revolution comes from violence. And they probably want that too. freespeechforever says

It's Brexit on steroids

Brexit is about sovereignty from the Eurozone. Brexit is about keeping a national currency instead of the Euro. We have our own currency, Einstein. And that is the good part of Brexit. You only want to take the bad part of Brexit, the racist part. Many voted for Brexit not even knowing the importance of keeping your own currency.

It's so freaking retarded the Liberals here don't remember them mansplaining to me back in March what the voting odds meant.
When they were all saying that Trump didn't have a path to winning the nomination. And Nate's polls agreed.

Selective memory, you guys should put that to use somehow.

I am more irretated by supposedly intelligent people who demonstrate shallow thinking than by obvious idiots doing what idiots normally do.

Just don't vote for a woman with a track record of failure, who refuses to answer whether her "No Fly" zone will shoot down Russian planes.

She's been so bellicose in this election, her ability to conduct Diplomacy with Russia is seriously compromised. Also she will promote Victoria Nuland, and she's too closely associated with legendary Human Rights Violators Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

Hillary's longest career was as a Corporate Lawyer.

Clinton, I ran many models here even giving Trump Ohio Florida and Arizona and he still loses

PA is the key here... if that state could turn Trump you have a mathematical case he could win.. but that's not the case

My impression is that Colorado is the key.

Logan Mohtashami says

Clinton, I ran many models here even giving Trump Ohio Florida and Arizona and he still loses

PA is the key here... if that state could turn Trump you have a mathematical case he could win.. but that's not the case

Wait, RCP has Pennsylvania AND Virginia in the margin of error and listed as Tossups....and those polls didn't include this past weekends events:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5964.html

FP says

My impression is that Colorado is the key.

This is the most bullish Trump Map I can come up with ... and he still loses

Be mindful on this

A. Clinton is doing much better with independents than Trump
B. College educated White Males for the first time ever have turned polled Democrat
C. X factor is how many Republicans ( Like Myself) don't even vote Hard to model data line out in polls outside the ones that say 20%-30% of Republicans won't vote Trump

Thunderlips Russian Agent 0069 says

She's been so bellicose in this election, her ability to conduct Diplomacy with Russia is seriously compromised.

That's silly. Putin is fucking with our election. Her calling him out on it after our President has already done so is not ruining her ability to negotiate with Russia. Even if Hillary went beyond the norm and vilified Russia based on fiction, Putin would still work with her. He'd have something in common with her, and they could bullshit about it behind closed doors before discussing ways to move forward. Trump's ignorance will prevent him from successfully negotiating with Russia or anyone else for that matter. His unwillingness to read or listen to others means that all he will have is is 'instincts.'

YesYNot says

Putin is fucking with our election.

Evidence?

Logan Mohtashami says

You copied my map.

If you had already I added this, I apologize, I have many maps ... this is the only Pro Trump Map outside the Tie Map

This gives you a baseline of how Ugly it could get if

Clinton wins independents ( Romney won that last time)
College educated Whites vote democrat
Republicans in general have a 20%-30% no turn out vote
Bernie People come out and vote for Clinton

Clinton does not give a fuck about the world (at least the lives of regular people) and puts her personal interest ahead of America.

The Clinton foundation exists because it benefits her family. The rest is secondary.

Why do you think Clinton is winning independents? Trump would be down 10 or more of that was the case. Recent CBS poll has Trump up with independents 42-38.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/five-days-to-go-the-presidential-race-tightens-cbsnyt-poll/

And why aren't you using the RCP map?

I grope u says

Why do you think Clinton is winning independents?

Baseline polls of all and carry trend over for weeks, Clinton is doing better when Independents

This election has a lot X variables that might not mean anything on voting day but get a lot attention from the media

The crazy data line that has stuck out more than any is the College educated White America is voting democrat .... that is big deviation in this election for me in terms of the data

Logan Mohtashami says

I grope u says

Why do you think Clinton is winning independents?

Baseline polls of all and carry trend over for weeks, Clinton is doing better when Independents

This election has a lot X variables that might not mean anything on voting day but get a lot attention from the media

The crazy data line that has stuck out more than any is the College educated White America is voting democrat .... that is big deviation in this election for me in terms of the data

Link the polls showing Hillary leads among independents.

Trump is going to beat Clinton by 2 votes in the College.

Nevada is firmly Trump now and even before the Email scandal Nevada was tied/well within the margin of error.

It should be pointed out that the Witch of War and Wall Street is one point more favorable than Trump, but there ain't gonna be no 2008/2012 turnout to help her like it did Obama.

Thunderlips Russian Agent 0069 says

Evidence?

News reports had our intelligence agencies saying it for a few weeks. Obama finally made the symbolic gesture of stating it aloud. There are tons of reports saying that it is the MO of Russia these days. My guess is that Russia has nukes, but they don't have a lot of military or economic power these days. So, Putin get's creative.

That's enough for me to think it's most likely true. It's not enough to start a war over, but that's not what's going on.

Thunderlips Russian Agent 0069 says

Nevada is firmly Trump now and even before the Email scandal Nevada was tied/well within the margin of error

Nevada was Clinton +5 about 10 days ago. It's made a huge swing in the last week. That seems pretty volatile and hard to predict to me.

YesYNot says

Nevada was Clinton +5 about 10 days ago. It's made a huge swing in the last week. That seems pretty volatile and hard to predict to me.

What happened in the last week?

Besides Putin infiltrating the FBI and lying about Clinton's pay for play and Weiner's emails. :)

Just a coinky-dinky this went missing in 2009.

Logan Mohtashami says

This gives you a baseline of how Ugly it could get if

Clinton wins independents ( Romney won that last time)

College educated Whites vote democrat

Republicans in general have a 20%-30% no turn out vote

Bernie People come out and vote for Clinton

Also quote for posterity. If you really think Iowa, Arizona, Nevada, Florida, NC, Nebraska, and Ohio are in question, I want to know what you are smoking. This election will be won, or lost, in PA, NH, NM, CO, UT, WI, MI, or possibly parts of Maine. If I had to pin it on one state, I'm guessing PA. Why? It's because if Trump doesn't win PA, he has to win more of the midwest (I.E. - WI, MI, MN) and I suspect that PA is easier to win any of those 3, primarily because all of Western PA is (for all practical purposes) the newest red state. I also think we'll know early enough in the evening if it's going to be a Trump landslide. If Trump wins parts of Maine, and NH, or anything else in New England, he's probably going to be our next president. If New England goes all blue, then it's potentially a long evening. It's not that New England is all that important to Trump (it isn't if he wins PA), but I'm just pointing out if these usually solid blue area go red, it's signaling a trend that's going to carry through the rest of the country. Also, Proposition 69 in Colorado will not pass.

Logan Mohtashami says

Bernie People come out and vote for Clinton

Ummm...if patrick.net is any indication, nearly 100% of former Bernie supporters will vote Trump.

Good. That shows you who the special interests fear and love.

zzyzzx is deplorable says

Ummm...if patrick.net is any indication, nearly 100% of former Bernie supporters will vote Trump.

Not true. Some will vote for Jill Stein.

Peter P says

Not true. Some will vote for Jill Stein.

Well, they aren't voting for Clinton.

Peter P says

Not true. Some will vote for Jill Stein.

Or stay home. If Bernie gets thousands to his rallies, but Hillary can't get more than a few hundred, obviously the Afterburners aren't super enthusiastic about her.

Thunderlips Russian Agent 0069 says

What happened in the last week?

The FBI email story itself and the secondary effect: that story brought Trump out of his muppet shame spiral reinvigorated him and he is staying on message. That said, most polls didn't move 7 points. So, unless something weird is going on in Nevada, the old polls were probably skewed toward clinton a little, and the new ones probably skewed towards Trump. The polls are +-3 pts statistically. So, if you'd expect approximately a 3 pt swing in 50% of the states due to just statistical changes (going from +1.5 to -1.5) Half of those would swing one direction, and half would swing the other. In reality, with a lot of states, you might see a one with a 5 pt swing due to statistical variance in the polls alone. So 3 to 4 pts of the 7 pt swing could very well be statistical error. Also, IMO, the swing based on the FBI leak will probably come back a bit by the election.

YesYNot says

The FBI email story itself and the secondary effect: that story brought Trump out of his muppet shame spiral reinvigorated him and he is staying on message. That said, most polls didn't move 7 points. So, unless something weird is going on in Nevada, the old polls were probably skewed toward clinton a little, and the new ones probably skewed towards Trump. The polls are +-3 pts statistically. So, if you'd expect approximately a 3 pt swing in 50% of the states due to just statistical changes (going from +1.5 to -1.5) Half of those would swing one direction, and half would swing the other. In reality, with a lot of states, you might see a one with a 5 pt swing due to statistical variance in the polls alone. So 3 to 4 pts of the 7 pt swing could very well be statistical error. Also, IMO, the swing based on the FBI leak will probably come back a bit by the election.

This is a huge, multi-faceted scandal. It's about real corruption, not about locker room talk from a decade ago.

Now huge swings when not much is going on HAS happened in this election. However this swing does have a reason behind it.