patrick.net

I'm going to predict that Gary Anderson will never be heard from again here, since he is only here for the election anyway.

Patrick says

Patrick's Predictions

Here's my prediction. PatNeters will spend all day looking at preliminary polling results, and when it's all over, half of PatNeters will bitch about the results and call the election rigged. Oh, and this prediction also applies to the general population.

marcus is NOT deplorable says

You don't realize how many people see the woman for who she is.

Fixed.

Gary Anderson says

I think Clinton in a landslide, because you cannot offend women, blacks, Hispanics, disabled and everyone under the sun and hope white men vote for you.

Clinton has made very similar offensive remarks.

What's your point?

Does it really say one of the sources is the Daily Mail? FFS!

Gary Anderson says

Not sure. A lot of conservative women are scandalized by Trump. Look at Utah. Mormon women don't want Trump

Maybe true... But when you look at the alternative you realize that it's not Mother Teresa standing there hoping for your vote

More generally about the election: Don't forget that there are all kinds of other elections today than for president.

The composition of the US house and senate is going to be hugely important, as it always is. Same at the state level. Voting in those elections also matters.

Patrick says

Overall US prosperity will increase for the masses, while the super-wealthy find their wealth stagnating because they depended so much on Hillary's policies. So the gap between rich and poor will decline.

Patrick,

Agree with nearly all of what you said. However:
- We have outsourced so many key jobs, and have a large slide in Technology graduates in the US. Some of the very key technologies such as advanced high density circuit boards, HiTech TV components will not easily come back on shore. Much as we did in the 1940s-1970s, US citizens are going to have to work very hard to pick up our slack on Science and Engineering and Manufacturing. I hope I am wrong about this.
- Trump will have to break through loads of Beauracrasy and Legal hurdles that have multipled since WJ Clinton. With those B-crats doing all they can to preserve their job, it may take a nearly revolutionary like push to restore fairness in contracting, make the private sector free-er and bring the Small and Medium business out of the wrath of Politicians and B-crats.

That said going the way of Hillary pushes us towards what the French were in the late 1790s - High Ranking Administrators controlling the Judiciary. (Read DeTocqueville Ancienne Regime Chapt 2-7)

Trade with China was 110% human-designed by Big Business, think tanks underwrote Economics Chairs at Universities, produced amazing Brochures and Lectures, paid politicians billions of dollars in speeches, donations, PAC donations, etc.

It is not a natural force like a hurricane or earthquake. It is 110% big business in politics. It can be 110% reversed by politics.

Outsourcing to China and Mexico is completely a result of rewriting laws and signing treaties.

People seem to think before the early 90s, nobody owned TVs, Phones, Cars, or Fax Machines because they were all made in the USA and it cost $10,000 to have a touch tone phone or that a Ford Econoline Van cost $250,000 because it was made expensively in the USA, and only the very rich had touch tone phones or cars until we outsourced everything..

I noticed in my neighborhood there are lots of signs out for local and state candidates, NONE for presidential candidate. People either hate them too much to support them, or are afraid of their free speech being violated, as well as their lawn, property, and possibly personage.

My predication, one communist is as bad as another, nothing changes.

Ranina ranina says

However, the likelihood of the next world war being the last is very high...

Not really. You will be surprised.

For me this election has shown the media to be too powerful and corrupt. I can't find a news source that doesn't have a built in bias. Staying in touch with what's going on is a massive day to day slog. I have some shows that I like on YouTube, but I never watch main stream news anymore.

What worries me is the media was so successful this election and I'm sure big business sat up and took notice. So I only expect it to get worse.

Yeah, because Youtube channels sure have the resources to do quality investigative journalism.

Thunderlips Russian Agent 0069 says

It is not a natural force like a hurricane or earthquake. It is 110% big business in politics. It can be 110% reversed by politics.

That's not true, comparative advantage is known and accepted natural law.

China is guilty of mercantilism. OTOH the US is guilty of exploiting the reserve currency status.

Peter P says

Ranina ranina says

However, the likelihood of the next world war being the last is very high...

Not really. You will be surprised.

Conjecture.

junkmail says

For me this election has shown the media to to too powerful and corrupt. I can't find a news source that doesn't have a built in bias. Staying in touch with what's going on is a massive day to day slog. I have some shows that I like on YouTube, but I never watch main stream news anymore.

If Clinton is elected, will she allow the AT&T-Time Warner merger to go through? Quite frankly we should be busting up the current media companies, not allowing more mergers between them.

With any new regime change, our enemies will attack us soon to test the strength of our response. It's like a child testing the response and pushing the limits of a parent. You heard it here first.

just any guy says

With any new regime change, our enemies will attack us soon to test the strength of our response.

Spoken like a true comrade.

illary is a neocon my fear is the opposite problem.

Gary Anderson says

I think Clinton in a landslide, because you cannot offend women, blacks, Hispanics, disabled and everyone under the sun and hope white men vote for you.

How did he offend Blacks, Hispanics and Disabled? Quotes please.

Why did you capitalize Hispanics and not "blacks"? You're a racist.

rando says

Try suggesting that motherhood is actually a worthy and noble use of 20 years of a young woman's life on any college campus. You'll be tied up, doused with gasoline, and burned alive, while being kicked to death.

And ask those same girl 10 years later. She'll feel as a failure if she didn't get any 'husband material' with which do Crl+V of her genes

Patrick says

If Trump wins (very much like the Brexit), the dollar will drop, and therefore US exports will surge. There will be tariffs against China, and US manufacturing will in fact revive. Some form of the wall with Mexico will be built, and millions of illegals will leave or be deported (so the cost of vegetables, maids, and construction work will go up)

Patrick says

Overall US prosperity will increase for the masses

So I guess Donald Trump will find an error on David Ricardo's math

ThreeBays says

Hahahahaha. Trump and republicans will pass big tax breaks for the wealthy, increasing owner class's share of wealth generating assets, while the worker class is increasingly enslaved to rent and borrow.

It's true Trump is not a capitalist.

He is a crony capitalist. The one thing about him is that he creates things illary destroys them and is a neocon.

indigenous says

The one thing about him is that he creates things illary destroys them and is a neocon.

I don't know, isn't most of his wealth due to leveraging in the property market? Not much manufacturing going on there...

NuttBoxer says

I don't know, isn't most of his wealth due to leveraging in the property market? Not much manufacturing going on there...

Is that not creation?

ThreeBays says

What Trump inflationary "prosperity" would look like.

How is Trump going to cause inflation?

ThreeBays says

What Trump inflationary "prosperity" would look like.

People will lose weight?

HILLARY HAS THE VOCAL MINORITY SCREECHING

TRUMP HAS THE SILENT MAJORITY HIDING FROM THE ABOVE

Thunderlips Russian Agent 0069 says

If Clinton is elected, will she allow the AT&T-Time Warner merger to go through? Quite frankly we should be busting up the current media companies, not allowing more mergers between them

Exactly how is the proposed AT&T - Time Warner merger monopolistic? It's not like AT&T is trying to buy T-Mobile.

Entitlemented says

US citizens are going to have to work very hard to pick up our slack on Science and Engineering and Manufacturing

As an ex-engineer, I can attest to the lack of jobs for engineers in the US as the reason as the alleged "slide". When manufacturing left the US, so did a lot of the engineering jobs. No jobs = less people going to college for it. There are loads of unemployed or under employed engineers in the US.

Thunderlips Russian Agent 0069 says

People seem to think before the early 90s, nobody owned TVs, Phones, Cars, or Fax Machines because they were all made in the USA and it cost $10,000 to have a touch tone phone or that a Ford Econoline Van cost $250,000 because it was made expensively in the USA, and only the very rich had touch tone phones or cars until we outsourced everything..

Sir,

You are correct in part, but I have purchased a Ford Escape with parts from US and Mexico. I compared to a BMW 3 SUV, which was nearly 70% more than the Ford, had a superior stereo, excellent handling and slightly better engine and seats. I have driven the Ford for 85K miles and spend

Thunderlips Russian Agent 0069 says

People seem to think before the early 90s, nobody owned TVs, Phones, Cars, or Fax Machines because they were all made in the USA and it cost $10,000 to have a touch tone phone or that a Ford Econoline Van cost $250,000 because it was made expensively in the USA, and only the very rich had touch tone phones or cars until we outsourced everything..

Sir,

You are correct in part, but I have purchased a Ford Escape with parts from US and Mexico. I compared to a BMW 3 SUV, which was nearly 70% more than the Ford, had a superior stereo, excellent handling and slightly better engine and seats. I have driven the Ford for 85K miles and spend less than $1500 in maintenance, that would not been the case with the BMW.

So with parity in taxes, laws, encouragement of manufacturing, reduction in costs/complexity of liability/Workers Comp Ins, Tax breaks for Cap Ex, the US is in some cases poised to re-establish basic R&D and Manufacturing.

For very advanced R&D (Alt Energy, Atmos Eng for Global Warming reduction, advanced Hydrogen extraction, artificial photosynthesis) if the US incentivized Education, R&D tax breaks, funding for adv R&D to the tune of $5-8B per year, the US could increase output and improve GDP.

While Obama hammered home his "Hope and Change" for the first few years, it was dropped as it was an empty misleading slogan.

We need visionary and progressive minded leaders. Obama and Clinton do not appear to have these traits.

ThreeBays says

What Trump inflationary "prosperity" would look like.

British Service Growth continues to explode, despite rising costs (read: Wage increases).
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/news/services-sector-growth-accelerates-despite-costs-increase-35185029.html

Low growth + low inflation has been a sign of unequal, 1%er concentrated gains. Moderate inflation is a sign the economy is truly growing for everybody.

zzyzzx is deplorable says

Exactly how is the proposed AT&T - Time Warner merger monopolistic? It's not like AT&T is trying to buy T-Mobile.

You're thinking Mobile Phones. I'm thinking AT&T's control of Media. And Cable, do we really need less Cable/Internet competition?

Blonigen was quick to point out that the paper says nothing about any individual deal, including the AT&T-Time Warner blockbuster. Deciding whether to approve or reject that merger will require significant work to go over detailed data about each company and the media industry. There are also other concerns with vertical mergers in this space. An AT&T-Time Warner goliath could favor its own content—Time Warner owns HBO and Turner Broadcast which includes CNN, TBS, TNT and other channels—over content from other providers. There’s also growing concern that vertical mergers give combined firms too much power in the labor market, resulting in lower wages and benefits for workers.

Patrick says

If Trump wins (very much like the Brexit), the dollar will drop, and therefore US exports will surge. There will be tariffs against China, and US manufacturing will in fact revive. Some form of the wall with Mexico will be built, and millions of illegals will leave or be deported (so the cost of vegetables, maids, and construction work will go up). People will feel free to support traditional values like clear gender roles and heterosexual marriage, and the declining marriage rate will reverse and start rising again. We will withdraw militarily from many countries. Iran will invade and take over Saudi Arabia's mostly-Shiite oil fields, and Saudi Arabia will plunge into civil war, raising the price of oil. Oil production in the US and other countries will go up to compensate and oil prices will fall again. Overall US prosperity will increase for the masses, while the super-wealthy find their wealth stagnating because they depended so much on Hillary's policies. So the gap between rich and poor will decline

Oh my goodness, we can't have THAT. Killory must win at any costs, get those dead people's ballots out again, this time they should vote 10 times each. Anything but traditional values. GADS!!!! Will the madness never stop?

Thunderlips Russian Agent 0069 says

Low growth + low inflation has been a sign of unequal, 1%er concentrated gains. Moderate inflation is a sign the economy is truly growing for everybody.

Exacerbated by cheap money that allows the 1% to invest ahead of a create their own inflation.

indigenous says

How is Trump going to cause inflation?

He can't: http://www.talkmarkets.com/content/bonds/edward-lambert-on-bond-demand-the-coming-recession-and-new-normal?post=111806&uid=4798

I had a dream last night, it was stormy outside and I was in a bar having a good time with Bush Jr, Obama, and Trump, we were all having a good time laughing about this election. I don’t even like all three, was it an omen?

Thunderlips Russian Agent 0069 says

Tax Breaks for the Rich, Private Prisons, Mass Incarceration, Bank Deregulation, Opposition to reimposing Glass-Steagal,

Dogs and Cats, Living Together. :)

The banks would crash if it was reimposed, not that it would not be good. There is just a big chasm between us and good.

Gary Anderson says

He can't: http://www.talkmarkets.com/content/bonds/edward-lambert-on-bond-demand-the-coming-recession-and-new-normal?post=111806&uid=4798

The macro economics are simple.

The US exports inflation, the definition of inflation is an increase in the money supply with an increase in demand.

The above is dependent on demographics at which point there will be inflation IMO.

The Prez has nothing to do with the above.

indigenous says

Exacerbated by cheap money that allows the 1% to invest ahead of a create their own inflation.

Said Cheap Money is caused by ZIRP which was cause by Housing Bubble Malinvestment, along with NAFTA. Service Industry growth cannot create tax base that supports all local, state and Fed government function.

Cant raise ZIRP because all the legal eagle insider deals were Ponzi Scheme in a transfer of influence for cash, which cannot last forever.

This specter of low manufacturing, limited jobs, government induced house appreciation, goverment induced manufacture, government regulation and real job loss results in low GDP, inability to escape ZIRP. All the while the Ponzi Malivestment gets transferred to deficit and will grow until such Ponzi Malivestment are stopped and reversed. Such shady lobbying by the administration flows into the Judicial control, and likely influence of the Fed by the administration, means that much more forcefull event will be required to stop the Pay to Play, Lobbying and Clinton Kleptocrasy/Empire.

indigenous says

Is that not creation?

Explain...