patrick.net

Not bad, Logan. You gave a clear, thorough explanation of your prediction. Thanks for sharing.

It's going to be a very boring year for myself, 90% of the bears simply gave up when Trump got elected, replaced by a few liberals who don't know much about economics. MMT people are always touting recession, they're easy to pick off..

Going to be zzzzz

On another note, if you guys love tropical resorts, I highly recommend JA Manfaru on the Maldives, leaving today from it, but it's the best resort I have ever been

Ironman says

Even better when mommy and daddy pay for it.

Tsk Tsk old man.... At age 41 I have double my parents net worth.... still living off Roberto's line even after all these years

Well since you won't go this is what you're missing out

Facebook live discussion on it... a bit more details...

Since domestic investment will still be light in 2017, I still see GDP 1.9%-2.3% range. If the dollar breaks over 108... you could see manufacturing hit

https://www.facebook.com/Logan.Mohtashami/videos/vb.783163249/10154391735403250/?type=3&theater

World trade is picking up from the lows but a stronger dollar could damp that down, consumption is good enough still

You're having too much fun Logan. We're all getting jealous.

Logan Mohtashami says

At age 41 I have double my parents net worth. (misc gratuitous photos)

Look, Logan went to a hotel with a view. Bullish! Was Tom Vu there with you?

From the linked article:

>>For the past few years I have stayed true to my channel call for the b0nd market ten-year yield to be between 1.60 -3%.

You've been giving yourself an almost 2x range of latitude in your interest rate "prediction". Am I supposed to be impressed?

>>Home prices still have legs to go higher in 2017. This is due more to supply then demand.

You still have not fixed this whopper of a mis-statement? I mean there is the grammar, the logic, the spelling, did I miss anything?

Ironman says

Some day you might wake up

and some day you won't be Ironman

I do have to say, I am proud of you guys for not attaching some doomsday theory in 2017 due to Trump

Logan Mohtashami says

Over investment is always the core root of every recession but I am not sure how much capital investment we have in this cycle or next that would create it in housing and cars..

Wouldn't cheap money (like what we've had for years now) drive over-investment in pretty much anything that can take advantage of it? Investment would seem to be the only thing to drive any sort of return whether it be stock-buybacks, cars, houses, etc.

just any guy says

drive over-investment in pretty much anything that can take advantage of it?

Funny you should ask that... at the conference I am going at the end of the month for the CAR talking about Trump and U.S. economics

One of the things that I want to get across is this very thesis

Low rates doesn't = high velocity in a light demographic patch... and I am going to explain it with this theory that you can't get a booming economy or a major bubble in a light demographic patch because there simply isn't enough prime age labor force growth to drive that demand.

1996-2007 you had decent demographics and we had the tech boom and the housing boom both to bust.. both had massive over investment thesis and unsustainable prices ... here we have had low rates for many years but no traction... this was the reason why all my GDP prediction had 1-2 handle % because we are light demographically thus not needing an over-investment thesis

I talked about that briefly in the article on why the builders did the smart thing on building light in this cycle

Housing is the cost of shelter to your own capacity to own the debt ....that's how I always looked at it ...

I know you guys are investment people... If you wanted to follow a model for that once inventory gets over 6 months annually especially for 18 months, the pricing power is going away, once inventory is much higher than 6 months...depending on that is going on in the cycle that is when you want to buy, if you're looking for an investment, like claims once a high level of inventory months starts to decline that is the real safe time to get in price wise.

Strategist says

Stop with the "what if's" If you dwell too much on the possible negatives, you will never have your own home.

Just buy it.

Timing can be everything in a place like San Diego or the Bay Area. I know many people, including family, who lost their life savings in the last recession, so you'll have to forgive me if I seem to over-analyze the decision to buy a $900K home.