patrick.net

FP says

Any success you might have reflects not so much positively on you but negatively on the field you are in.

Ya but I am man enough to say it with my real name and face

APOCALYPSEFUCK_is_ADORABLE says

195   APOCALYPSEFUCK_is_ADORABLE  

Really, this is the voice of reason

you are fool enough, that's all

FP says

you are fool enough, that's all

this fool is going to burn the trolls on this site once the recession/recovery cycle happens... and the American people will know that Anti American trolls are nothing but trolls who can't read data

You guys created me... I am simply the reaction to your non sense ....not just here, twitter, facebook linkedin

You all bet against the wrong country...

bad bad move with everything time stamped

You can't take back what you have said.... only doing this because you can hide behind cute photos and fake names.. you would never speak like this in real terms...

Someone had to call your BS ....

Is this your niche? Batshit crazy rants against imaginary anti-American trolls? Does it sell? I wouldn't be surprised.

Go for it Logan. Kick their butts.
It's facts vs bullshit.

FP says

Does it sell?

This isn't about $$$ or clicks... this is about American Pride ....

Numbers are the closest thing we have to handwriting of God...

You have no training, you have no discipline... and maybe that is what this site is about ...

Just random rants between the left and right

Well....

;-)

Did you not think you wouldn't get a push back?

"I hope to god I piss every one of you Anti Americans bears off... because your stuff is dreadful.. just terrible"

Sorry to disappoint--I'm not pissed off. Just bored. I was hoping to actually engage in an interesting discussion, but you've shown, once again, that you are incapable.

joeyjojojunior says

interesting discussion

Every question you have I provide data and charts .. you just don't believe them because it doesn't fit your narrative

Which is fine.. but don't say I don't bring it ... because I do... every time .. every thesis...

"Every question you have I provide data and charts .. you just don't believe them because it doesn't fit your narrative. Which is fine.. but don't say I don't bring it ... because I do... every time .. every thesis..."

Of course you bring charts. What you don't bring is a well reasoned explanation as to what the charts show and what they mean going forward. Any monkey can copy and paste a bunch of charts and graphs--the key is being able to interpret them correctly. You have shown no such ability.

joeyjojojunior says

Any monkey can copy and paste a bunch of charts and graphs--the key is being able to interpret them correctly. You have shown no such ability.

Bingo Bingo Bingo....

Now allow me to retort

What is it that you ask?

APOCALYPSEFUCK_is_ADORABLE says

Galbraith would shit in your mouth

APOCALYPSEFUCK_is_ADORABLE says

EVERY FUCKING BANK EXAMINER

APOCALYPSEFUCK_is_ADORABLE says

it's only a matter of when and how deep the trough

Ok.. if this thesis was valid

Great Recession lost 8.8 million people.. that meant over 100 million people were working, the recession lasted 18 months

And adjust to demographics labor is working at near full employment with wages at all time highs, financial asset at all time highs

This is your economy that you choose to cry about every day even when the weakness in Europe and Japan is evident

Theme is that the extreme left brings up 1929 due to wealth concentration.... because our economy now is exactly the same as the roaring 20's

... your move...

go ahead prove me wrong

"What is it that you ask?"

Well, I've asked it like 3-4 times already, but I will ask again. You seem to be saying that the economy now if fundamentally different than in 1929 and therefore increasing inequality won't lead to a recession/depression. I asked what you think is different that will allow the US economy to perform well with such a large chunk of the assets and buying power in the hands of a few people? Certainly you must agree that $10MM in the hands of 10,000 people will create MUCH more demand than $10MM in the hands of 1 person.

Obviously our economy is different now, but I'm asking you to detail what differences are important and why.

joeyjojojunior says

hands of a few people?

5 points here

1. No home ownership factor back in 1920's like it is now, which is the highest net asset most Americans outside the top 1% have
2. Social security, Medicare and unemployed benefits wasn't even around like it was then
3. Pension plans wasn't even around then
4. Real wages are at all time highs as more Americans are working with dual household incomes not single household incomes
5. The people with the highest nominal debt loans
- most educated
- highest income earners
- have the highest net worth of assets on top of the debt

This isn't 1929... and adjusting to demographics, we have a stronger patch coming in now in a few years.

Unlike 2007 when prime age labor force peaked from a high debt leverage bubble with non capacity owning debt

Fixed low debt cost against rising wages, it's the golden egg on debt service economics

joeyjojojunior says

You seem to be saying that the economy now if fundamentally different than in 1929 and therefore increasing inequality won't lead to a recession/depression. I asked what you think is different that will allow the US economy to perform well with such a large chunk of the assets and buying power in the hands of a few people?

You have it all wrong Joey, wealth inequality is not the problem. e.g.
Lets say in year 1 you have $10,000 and your neighbor has $100,000
Year 2, you have $11,000 and your neighbor has $1000,000.
Are you better off, or worse off?

APOCALYPSEFUCK_is_ADORABLE says

Housing never goes down.

When supply goes over 6 months home prices will go down.

APOCALYPSEFUCK_is_ADORABLE says

The 1988 and 2007 meltdowns were caused by America-hating marxists who disagree with objective,

Both cycles had clear over investment thesis ... this cycle we don't have any yet... commercial real estate would be the area to look at

Wow--thank you. A rational response. Here's my response to you.

1. home ownership is included in wealth inequality numbers so you're trying to count it twice.
2. The safety net is definitely important and would keep the US economy from bottoming as far as it did in the Great Depression. Although Republicans are itching to hack away at it, so who knows what it will look like in a few years.
3. Pension plans are underfunded, in general. But they will help some retirees
4. Real wages are only slightly higher than they were 30 years ago despite MASSIVE increases in productivity. This is the core problem with our current economy.
5. Of course the highest nominal debt holders are the people with the highest earning capability. Otherwise nobody would loan them that much money. Not sure what your point is there. Debt is very high because the 1% loans the money they steal from the 99% back to them so that they can afford to buy stuff. If/when they don't--the economy will grind to a halt.

I know you are a huge believer in demographics--the problem is that the underlying assumption in your theory is that people in your target demographic have $$ to spend. If they don't have $$, they don't have demand regardless of what previous generations did.

APOCALYPSEFUCK_is_ADORABLE says

CRA

Didn't create the housing bubble ... everyone took part in it

I would you can't have a massive bubble without a prime age labor force factor in it

joeyjojojunior says

you're trying to count it twice.

More people own homes, different than 1929

joeyjojojunior says

Although Republicans are itching to hack away at

They won't .. not in a meaningful manner

"You have it all wrong Joey, wealth inequality is not the problem. e.g.
Lets say in year 1 you have $10,000 and your neighbor has $100,000
Year 2, you have $11,000 and your neighbor has $1000,000.
Are you better off, or worse off?"

Depends on what inflation was for that year. Most likely you are much worse off.

The pie grows at 2%/year. If your neighbor grows at 1000%, then everyone else loses.

joeyjojojunior says

. Pension plans are underfunded, in general. But they will help some retirees

We have near 30 trillion dollars on pension plans.. some cities are underfunded for sure but they will still be able to draw out $$$

Plus it's not big enough to bring a 1929 crash

"More people own homes, different than 1929"

And that value is included in wealth inequality charts. Don't try to count it twice.

joeyjojojunior says

ncreases in productivity.

Productivity gains mostly came in manufacturing sector hence why it doesn't impact total wages rising...

I have documented all of the working force and pay grades...

https://loganmohtashami.com/2016/12/09/manufacturing-under-president-donald-trump/

joeyjojojunior says

Don't try to count it twice.

Trust me.. nobody living in 1929.. is living now with their homes

joeyjojojunior says

Debt is very high because the 1% loan

Most of the high debt are mortgages, mortgage owners now are the best we will ever see in our life time

joeyjojojunior says

have $$ to spend

First time buyers are 50% of all home purchases now.. M's are entering their 30's and buying homes

1929 crash is running into a higher supply of people that need shelter, food, energy and stuff....in the next few years...

Now as a demographic guy I don't believe older countries can grow fast for many reasons but then again I was a 2% GDP guy in this cycle

Does the smallest investor have exactly the same opportunity to profit as all other investors?
Yeah! Right!

I be loving me some data.

"According to the 2014 census, 14.5% of Americans, or over 45 million people, live in poverty, up from 11.3% in 2000; a rate not seen since the early '90s."
http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/45-million-americans-live-poverty-you-wouldnt-know-it-watching-2016-coverage

"Almost 5 percent of Americans struggle living just one step above poverty, according to a new report by the Census Bureau."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/five-percent-of-americans-hover-just-above-poverty/2014/05/01/1d8fe754-d16a-11e3-a6b1-45c4dffb85a6_story.html?utm_term=.64bbec4f67d1

Let me cypher.
14.5% + 5%=19.5%

I am looking for the data that tells me how many of these will purchase
pitchforks & Guillitones preparing for revenge on RIGGED CAPITALISM,The Market,TBTF
& the rich. I'm sure the data will show they will act when they finally get pissed off & are tired of being
fucked by the 10%.
A great number probably own firearms.

Strategist says

Are you better off, or worse off?

What's important is how the "worse off" feel about being "worse off"
especially when there are many of them.

I've just had a glimpse of a Black Swan.

Repeal ACA. 20 million will be very happy.
Republicans messing with SS & Medicare,the poor will be ecstatic.
Of course there aren't any Con/Reps in the numbers of poor/near poor.
Trump better be making some jobs.

HEY YOU says

I be loving me some data.

Logan Mohtashami says

Millennials will be out of their highschool room at 31, rent, marry at 39, rent, they buy their first home at 51.
Here goes your demographic case.

I am trying to tell you guys, 1929 and 2017 are different beast ....

Logan Mohtashami says

Trust me.. nobody living in 1929.. is living now with their homes

Do you really not understand the point? I posted a chart of wealth inequality--homes are included in that chart. Saying more people own homes doesn't help because it's reflected in the data already posted.

Logan Mohtashami says

1929 crash is running into a higher supply of people that need shelter, food, energy and stuff....in the next few years...

Need and can afford are two different things. That's the point.

joeyjojojunior says

I posted a chart of wealth inequality--homes are included in that chart

What I am trying to explain is that more middle class Americans own homes and have that wealth than 1929, the distribution isn't the same. This is why a deflationary collapse in America is very unlikely