patrick.net

Logan Mohtashami says

just any guy says

nasty deflationary cycle.

Older demographics are deflationary for sure, Japan and Germany ...

But not a U.S. story line yet

90 Million plus reasons why

Let our American people break down all the bears with furious passion! :-) #USA

I hear you on the reasons why not given your charts, but that could be changing as we speak. Data takes a few months to get, and I think since the election it feels like a change for the worse is happening.

just any guy says

Debt is no longer able to sustain the global economy, no matter how cheap we make borrowing.

Why do you say that? I don't see massive defaults.

Gary Anderson says

Walmart is laying off many employees.

How many they over 2 million people working for them

Gary Anderson says

I would be careful. Walmart is laying off many employees. Other layoffs are accelerating.

Unemployment rate has been falling. After Jan 20, it will fall further.
Those without skills, education, or a little bit of intelligence won't find jobs. They have nothing to offer.

Strategist says

just any guy says

Debt is no longer able to sustain the global economy, no matter how cheap we make borrowing.

Why do you say that? I don't see massive defaults.

Not yet, but they will absolutely start happening if interest rates begin a long term upward trajectory. Besides, you don't need defaults to cause a deflationary spiral...you just need people to stop spending and start paying down debt and/or saving. Then, the defaults start happening because people start losing jobs.

Ironman says

Yep, because those people move to the Not In The Labor Force, and are no longer counted.... Eventually, we'll get to a 1% UE Rate, and NILF of 150 million.

That may be true. But they are likely sustaining themselves somehow. They won't move to where projects are funded temporarily, because they live with relatives. It isn't like when the Michiganders moved to Texas where the jobs were. People are less mobile now because wages have fallen behind and there are multigenerational households. Wages decreased after the Great Recession, some just recently where I live.

It isn't that assets have risen abruptly although over time they have. It is that wages that were a little sticky, are declining for many manufacturing industries. Wages that paid 25 dollars an hour are paying 10 to 15 dollars per hour.

Also, companies like Disney are paying 9 dollars an hour through work at home companies. This is a disaster.