patrick.net

troll alert.

joeyjojojunior says

troll alert.

even though the deflation thesis is well spoken about by the extreme left wing people on this site who have proven they can't read data, .... hence hiding behind a fake name

This is median CPI... which was never in deflation threat with or without oil

Median CPI finishes 2016 at +2.6% y/y. It didn't even notice oil.

Logan is wrong as usual. It took 8 years of zero interest rate and QE version 1-3, forced upon us by the FRB, to prevent ASSET (house, stock, bonds) deflation, which is what the deflation discussion really was about. And in the process, FRB manages to maintain some consumer inflation, too, but very little wage inflation to match it. The top 0.1% gives a crap about consumer deflation only to the extent it impacts consumer demand and business profitability, and it cares about consumer inflation only to the extent it creates upward wage pressure. I'm all for data and graphs, but Logan is the master of throwing around data with no context and no considerations for the variables that determined the shape of the data series in the first place.

I don't want to kill my braincells by having another long tit-for-tat with Logan over this, but those who want to be informed had better heed what I am saying here, and keep it in mind every time Logan posts one of his context-free "see? see! See!" type proclamations based on some random chart,

justme says

random chart,

Fallacy of Logic thesis

ECI wage inflation is at 3.9% cycle high
Avg hourly wages are at cycle highs 2.9%
Retail sales are at all time highs
Home Sales are at cycle highs, with the highest mortgage buyers and lowest cash buyers
165 Million working people
43 year lows in unemployment claims
Highest job openings print ever recorded in human history
Longest duration period in the world for Job openings to be filled
Real median weekly income all time high

See... I could care less what you 14 people think on this site, it's your readers and viewers that I care about.

They can see the data... to you guys and gals it amounts to a coloring book...

Math, Facts and Data matter... Numbers matter.. Numbers are the nearest thing we have to the handwriting of God

And all your insults, your cursing, your hiding behind fake names

Stick and stones most likely will never break my bones, but your words are always rotten poison ;-)

This is why you guys curse, call me names, flip out... it's because unlike the garbage headlines on this God Forsaken site.... I bring math, facts and data

So keep it up boys and girls! the responses I get back from your readers are always priceless

and they don't share your hatred of data

Are you suggesting that the strong dollar is primarily the effect of cheaper oil ?

Btw, fed funds rate have been at or near zero since the crash. Do small businesses get to borrow money at 2 or 3% ? I don't think so.

marcus says

Btw, fed funds rate have been at or near zero since the crash. Do small businesses get to borrow money at 2 or 3% ? I don't think so.

There is no chart Marcus, and I don't know what you look like or have your full name, so this point is totally invalid. (wink)

marcus says

Are you suggesting that the strong dollar is primarily the effect of cheaper oil ?

We call it King Dollar for a reason, this is why...

Back last year I said, don't over read the S&P earnings decline too much, it's dollar oil/comm related, once the dollar stops it's big rise... oil should reboud

Ticker symbol HP under $45

Wink Wink

Back then I said Q4 2016 and Q1 2017 Earnings should be back positive... and look we are there... Oil is up, PMI all over the world is up because Imports move with the price of oil

Listen, in all seriousness

I know I am cramping your style here.... just from the feed back I get... and I get why you guys do this site

If I get 5 Yes... leave Logan

You have my word that I will never post a single post or response here ever again

So just say the word and I am forever gone!

5 names that say Yes and you will never hear from me again ever

He never answers questions. He just posts more meaningless charts. That's all he knows how to do.

marcus says

Do you think the dollar is up as an effect of oil being down

If the data isn't transparent enough.

Note that the dollar makes it's biggest % run before the Fed rate hike happen, not after, once it did .. dollar went up, oil went down, manufacturing in a recession .. demand for oil was always strong, it never went away, I post weekly oil demand charts.

Because people don't have a back ground in commodity currency relationship, they were led to believe that it was a demand issue.. not the case

Ironman says

The 100's that read here couldn't give a flying fuck for your bullshit,

This counts as 1 ...

Just need 4 more and I promise you all.. you will never see my big smile ever again

So, you won't answer the question ?

marcus says

So, you won't answer the question ?

I did twice

I even gave you guys a stock on how to trade this.. not that any of you cared but still

:-)

joeyjojojunior says

He never answers questions.

Amanda Perry counts as 2

Just give me 3 more names, I promise .. all my charts go away and you go back to your Bosch painting web site

Obviously when the dollar is up it lowers the price of our imports. Oil is one of our imports so wow, it's like magic, there is a correlation between oil being down and other imports are also cheap as priced in dollars. So imports are up. I don't think of this being cause and effect. I shouldn't have to explain this, but the oil chart shows oil priced in dollars, and oil is an international commodity. So obviously when the dollar is up, oil is down.

Thinking of this as cause and effect is a stretch. It's like saying the dollor going up caused the swiss franc to go down relative to dollars.

marcus says

oil chart shows oil priced in dollars,

exactly, a pricing mechanism not a demand story...

PMI bears 2015 and 2016 will go down in history as one of the worst economic recession theories ever.. because they thought it was demand that was collapsing

Not the case, this is the lack of experience

Fudge, I thought I would get 5 names by name! Oh well, I will count Nut, XXZZZYYY guy and gun point to the head person as 5 ....

Ladies and Gentlemen it has been a pleasure but I can no longer post on sites like these, wink wink!

Good Luck with everything in life, hopefully your children won't be as big a cry babies as you... ( WINK JOKE HUMOR)

This is like the 4th time you've signed off of Patrick. I expect you'll be back in a couple weeks again...

Logan Mohtashami says

Not the case, this is the lack of experience

I would say it's more a case global fundamentals often being to hard to fully analyze. Commodity pricing includes all the forward markets, and I believe that the market assessment of future global demand for oil probably is down from where it was a few years ago. Some big strides have been made in electric cars, and alternative sources of energy. Overall the global economy has been chugging along at a lower pace than what was predicted in 2006.

Was peak oil a lie ? Or did markets and economies adjust, with relatively low growth while technology caught up.

marcus says

Are you suggesting that the strong dollar is primarily the effect of cheaper oil ?

More likely it's the other way round.
Hey Logan, charts alone won't answer the question. It's a question on economic theory.