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Profiting off the downturn


               
2017 Mar 5, 1:35pm   3,890 views  22 comments

by 931e   follow (0)  

Hi @patrick,

I was wondering what your thoughts were in terms of profiting from the downturn of the stock market/economy that is looming. I'm extremely bearish on all retail (especially retail stores in which more than 80% of their goods can be found on Amazon for cheaper). I feel like buying put options might provide some decent value if timed properly.

Thoughts?

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14   Strategist   2017 Mar 6, 9:07am  

931e says

Strategist says

931e says

I was wondering what your thoughts were in terms of profiting from the downturn of the stock market/economy that is looming.

The downturn has been looming for the last 8 years. Don't count on it anytime soon.

How can it have been looming for 8 years when the bottom was 8 years ago?

The sluggish economy is finally gaining confidence. The stocks are merely anticipating a full recovery. We could have a correction when the economy actually takes off.
Retail with it's present business model has no future. Technology is gaining pace, and it won't be long before Amazon brings the buying experience that retailers like Best Buy currently have.

15   Patrick   2017 Mar 6, 9:45am  

CVS looks pretty solid to me, with a p/e of 16 and dividend of 2.5%.

16   9dc9   2017 Mar 6, 11:43am  

rando says

CVS looks pretty solid to me, with a p/e of 16 and dividend of 2.5%.

The future could change alot...

19   931e   2017 Mar 6, 5:12pm  

rando says

Why do you think Target stock dropped so much since Christmas @patrick?

20   Patrick   2017 Mar 6, 5:40pm  

Target doesn't seem down all that much, still within the range of noise. If you take the really long view, still looks pretty good.

21   931e   2017 Mar 6, 7:33pm  

rando says

Target doesn't seem down all that much, still within the range of noise. If you take the really long view, still looks pretty good.

It's all perspective I suppose. If you take the really long view on a high percentage of stocks they all look pretty good these days.

I guess there's only one way to find out who is wrong or right in the near term... I'll buy some short term and mid term put options for a number of retailers and see how it pans out.

22   RealEstateIsBetterThanStocks   2017 Mar 6, 9:01pm  

931e says

the downturn of the stock market/economy that is looming

Hilary voter?

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