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Peak Oil Demand Is Millions Of Barrels Away
2017 Jul 10, 4:40pm 555 views 13 comments
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rocketjoe79
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2026 Jan 26, 10:50am
rocketjoe79
@
2026 Jan 26, 10:50am
Oil companies are profit driven. The "Easy" oil is already being pumped, or depleted. The Harder-to-get Oil is being accessed with directional drilling. The Canadians are boiling tar sand that has to be mixed with lighter distillates to be viable, and they still make a profit. Oil companies are ALWAYS searching for new deposits, and they have identified reachable oil and gas deposits that will last 47-50 years (per Grok.) As soon as suppies get lowish, exploration ramps, deposits are "magically" found, and resource extraction continues. No need to explore too actively if supply is ok. I gotta believe they keep some in their back pocket (possible collusion) to make sure the price doesn't go too low.
Watch Landman, the new TV series, for a primer on Oil Economics, and other fun stuff. It's basic education for 20-somethings wrapped in an entertaining story, and head-nodding, "I-told-you-so" shit for Boomers. Actual conservative programming, sorta.
Watch Landman, the new TV series, for a primer on Oil Economics, and other fun stuff. It's basic education for 20-somethings wrapped in an entertaining story, and head-nodding, "I-told-you-so" shit for Boomers. Actual conservative programming, sorta.
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The notion that demand for crude oil will soon peak has largely replaced the idea from a decade ago that crude oil production was about to peak for geological reasons. This new idea is that we will no longer need oil (or at least a lot less of it) because consumers will choose alternatives to oil.
But actual oil consumption numbers suggest that peak demand for oil won't happen soon, and when it does happen it will do so at a demand millions of barrels per day (BPD) higher than current demand.
Proponents of peak demand expect that exponential growth in electric vehicles (EVs), and to a lesser extent an increase in biofuel production will send oil demand into permanent decline. In fact, nearly a year and a half ago Bloomberg suggested that at a continued annual growth rate of 60%, electric vehicles could displace two million BPD of oil by 2023. At a 30% growth rate, two million BPD would be displaced by 2025.
I addressed the key problem with the Bloomberg scenario here. In a nutshell, the article treated oil demand as stagnant, which resulted in the assumption that in 2023 the displacement would take place from current demand levels. In other words, if 2016 demand was 95 million BPD, the Bloomberg scenario presumed 2023 demand at 93 million BPD (and falling every year).
The flaw in the scenario is that for over 30 years average oil demand has grown each year by more than a million BPD.ï„¿ï„¿ Over the past decade, oil demand has grown each year by 1.1 million BPD. Over the past five years, 1.4 million BPD. Last week the bible of energy statistics was released -- the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2017 -- and it showed that oil consumption grew by 1.6 million BPD last year:
Full Article: https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2017/06/19/peak-oil-demand-is-millions-of-barrels-away/#4d3817446940
Related: The Global Oil Demand Driver That Is Being Ignored. http://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Renewable-Energy/The-Global-Oil-Demand-Driver-That-Is-Being-Ignored.html
Related: After Peak Oil, Are We Heading Toward Social Collapse? http://www.countercurrents.org/2017/07/01/after-peak-oil-are-we-heading-toward-social-collapse/
#PeakOil #AlternateEnergy #ElectricCars #SocialProblems