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Real Estate Predictions for Short Term?

By steverbeaver follow steverbeaver   2017 Aug 15, 9:36pm 6,197 views   16 comments   watch   nsfw   quote   share    


I predict housing will subside a little bit in the coming two years... what is your prediction? I also think Cali could go either way, but if it does go down, it will be very hard. I am currently waiting to buy back in, hopefully soon.

1   epitaph   ignore (0)   2017 Aug 15, 9:57pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

A pullback has already been underway for a while in some of the hotter California markets. One of my realtor friends thinks everything is going to take at least a 20% haircut here in San Jose, I don't see it, but I don't watch the market everyday and didn't lose anything during the recession.

2   HEY YOU   ignore (10)   2017 Aug 16, 3:29pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Buyers will continue to overpay for shacks.
Not a prediction,a fact.
Stupid does as stupid is?

3   lostand confused   ignore (0)   2017 Aug 16, 5:00pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

It is very frothy where I am -for our frozen tundra standards-can't go on for ever. Unless global warming comes here and this becomes a tropical paradise!

4   Strategist   ignore (2)   2017 Aug 16, 5:11pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

steverbeaver says

I predict housing will subside a little bit in the coming two years... what is your prediction? I also think Cali could go either way, but if it does go down, it will be very hard. I am currently waiting to buy back in, hopefully soon.

The appreciation rate in California will accelerate in the next 2 years. No reason for it not to.

5   ThreeBays   ignore (3)   2017 Aug 16, 7:02pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

My prediction is that Bay Area prices may stagnate but not go significantly down because high rents put a floor under sales prices.

Santa Clara: Median sales price $1,105,000, median rent $3,697. That's a 4% rent premium, while 30 year rates are around 3.75%. So as I said, I think the rents put a floor under these prices. Not to mention anybody that bought a house in the last (forever) years is sitting pretty enjoying lower payments than renters.

6   RealEstateIsBetterThanStocks   ignore (0)   2017 Aug 16, 8:14pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

not going to go down much without China going into a big recession.

7   Bellingham Bill   ignore (5)   2017 Aug 16, 9:42pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

RealEstateIsBetterThanStocks says

not going to go down much without China going into a big recession.

recessions are impossible if the PTB are willing and able to run the presses

The Fed injected trillions into our economy 2010, 2012, and 2014, and it helped a lot

8   BayArea   ignore (1)   2017 Aug 17, 7:16am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

epitaph says

A pullback has already been underway for a while in some of the hotter California markets.

Where?

9   Strategist   ignore (2)   2017 Aug 17, 7:27am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

epitaph says

A pullback has already been underway for a while in some of the hotter California markets. One of my realtor friends thinks everything is going to take at least a 20% haircut here in San Jose

You mean a slowdown in sales due to there being nothing to buy. Making a major decision on wether or not to buy a house based on what a realtor thinks would not be very wise.
Home prices have been going up for a reason.....shortage of homes. Until that changes, prices will continue its ascent. When people say they can't afford to buy a home anymore,
I would remind them that there is always a lower priced home to buy.

10   Bellingham Bill   ignore (5)   2017 Aug 27, 5:14pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Youngest boomer is hitting their mid-50s now, oldest boomer is in their 70s and one leg in the grave.

The generational rollover / handoff between the boomers and their millennial "Gen Y" echo boom is going to be immensely stimulative AFAICT.

The boomers on the whole have all the money and this is going to rain on their progeny, as is all the retirement money they're spending.

As is all the demand for medical services they're increasing getting:


I don't pretend to have a crystal ball, but I don't see where the seeds of a recession are hiding.

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