patrick.net

Leading indictor: homebuilder stocks crashing
Lagging indicator: mass suicides

The very fact that a housing bubble is soooo over hyped leads me to believe that the housing market will not crash.

Over-hyped? Not as over-hyped as the housing boom itself.

For your info, too many people have their investment in their house wiped out, but they continue to pay their mortgage and a few years later, they got back all their money plus a whole lot more through appreciation.

I read that in Hong Kong, families committed suicides after the housing market tanked 50+% in less than a few years (sticky on the way down?), perhaps that is an easier way "out"? :)

Fake P, you seem to have a lot of faith in humanity. I think this is abmirable.

However, I implore you to discover the dark side of humanity. You will have a whole new perspective of life.

Believe it or not. The very fact that a housing bubble is soooo over hyped leads me to believe that the housing market will not crash.

Hmm...is that really where the brunt of the hype exists? Despite a few cautionary articles, many people I know are still upbeat on their homes or investments. Market psychology is one thing, but by now I see an over-fueled, out of control train that will run its inevitable course. It's speculation on anyone's part--until we actually see the results.

Sometime leading and lagging is not too clear as roles get shifted around. Sometimes casue is effect and effect is cause. Welcome to Soro's world of reflexivity!

OT, but I found this article interesting:

"Fed group recommends backup clearing bank"
http://tinyurl.com/7f8wf

Is this routine--or signifies something greater?

“Fed group recommends backup clearing bank”

One thing for sure: the FED want us to know that it is being proactive. Perhaps it is trying to "scare" the market so that more risk premium will be priced-in?

Looks like "information warfare" is the tactics now. "Expectation management" may become the next big thing.

It is kind of funny that the housing bulls consider it “hype” when people finally start conceeding that the massive run-up in prices might in fact be a bubble.

I am not accusing anyone, but housing bulls tend to selectively mix and match "facts" to support the idea of a "permanently high plateau".

It is kind of funny

Free entertainment it is. :)

Fake-P

I'm your Father, explore the dark side.

More news from sac: sale fell through, so we'll be sitting on things till summer. I'm pessimistic (obviously) and have been trying to convince others to cut prices to get things moved quickly. Given the huge inventory in Sac right now, I don't see things ending up roses.

_shrug_

The guy running the whole shebang is a life long contractor/real estate guy, and is convinced that nothing, *nothing* is f**ked here. I tried to talk about credit crunches, the insane loans, etc. He said that 40 year loans were going to become standard and that "You will need to be a multimillionare to live in CA." He is extraordinarily leveraged in real estate as well.

Anyway, bad weekend.

Cheers,
prat

You will need to be a multimillionare to live in CA.

Well, at least, he is predicting hyperinflation. We will be able to live in CA when USD/JPY is at parity. :)

Check out the new reports from DataQuick.

Median prices in Marin, Napa, San Francisco, and San Mateo are still falling month-to-month! These are richer counties with higher education and smarter money.

Other counties have registered small month-to-month gains. Talking about information asymmetry... :)

I have an "offer" on a house down here in SLO, I low-balled them by 50K and they accepted, I am going to string them along and stroke them as much as possible, and the bail out at the last minute. I plan on doing again this many many many times. Hopefully at least one debtor will cry.

I have an “offer” on a house down here in SLO, I low-balled them by 50K and they accepted, I am going to string them along and stroke them as much as possible, and the bail out at the last minute. I plan on doing again this many many many times. Hopefully at least one debtor will cry.

He he he he. :twisted:

Both Surfer-X and Peter P are very sick. I am totally disgusted by your degenerate actions. I hope that someone else will do similar things to you when you are down and out.

So you do admit that those homeowners are down and out? :)

Moreover, Surfer-X can do whatever he wants within the boundary of the law.

Caution: right handed fencers have to stand goofy foot.

Dude, I am a goofy-foot :)

Go left youngman.

Both Surfer-X and Peter P are very sick. I am totally disgusted by your degenerate actions. I hope that someone else will do similar things to you when you are down and out.

Another of my recent favs is to gobble a giant burrito, wait about 3-4hrs, then take a laxative of choice while on my way to an open house, at which point I politely excuse myself and equally as politely ask to use the restroom, at which point I remove the lid and give them my deposit, yes the ever so classic "upper-tanker". They'll try to find the poo-origin for weeks if not months. Think of it as a tidy bowl in reverse, kind of an un-tidybowl.

Feel free to use liberally at your own discretion.

Mind you I'm kind off like decaffinated coffee, you can't tell I'm an (sub)urban terrorist by looking at me. The charcoal suit is my camoflage of choice. The short hair doesn't hurt either, but inside I'm pure evil.

-off
+of

I have to agree with Fake P, if you can truely afford a house you like and would really enjoy one there is not much point in playing the timing game.

I strongly agree too. However, be cautious about what "truely afford a house you like" means

“You will need to be a multimillionare to live in CA.”

I'm rather amazed people still push this idea, especially if they've spent any time living here. One only needs to spend a little time thinking of a "big picture" scenario to see it's akin to building a skyscraper from popsicle sticks.

“You will need to be a multimillionare to live in CA.”

If I were a multimillionare, I would not choose to live in CA. Vancouver, BC is so much more attractive: air, food, people...

Vancouver, BC is so much more attractive: air, food, people…

Just south of BC isn't too bad either. You just need to cope with those dark winters. I did when I was young, but I'm not so sure anymore; it's dark enough in Cali.

Just south of BC isn’t too bad either. You just need to cope with those dark winters. I did when I was young, but I’m not so sure anymore; it’s dark enough in Cali.

Better than Alaska, I presume. :)

A friend said that Vancouver shows what our spending on defense can be alternatively used for.

LOL

They do have more rain then here. But they also have more underground/indoor parking. With a bit of luck you do not need to walk outside at all. :)

Since it rains more, the air is more fresh.

Better than Alaska, I presume.

LOL...yeah, you couldn't pay me to live there.
Regarding the BC/Seattle area...I distinctly recall those winter days, walking to school in pitch dark and returning home under that blackness. Friends were already showing signs of seasonal depression at that age; I can only imagine the effects are worse now.
I suppose morning and midday double espressos will take off that edge...

“You will need to be a multimillionare to live in CA.”

What a moron. And how are the people that are integral parts of the service economy ('Bucks employees, gas station clerks, burritto folders, etc.) suppossed to live and work here? It is amusing how most people have zero understanding of basic economics/sociology and how a social/economic structure must be sustainable to keep from crashing down on itself.

What a moron. And how are the people that are integral parts of the service economy (’Bucks employees, gas station clerks, burritto folders, etc.) suppossed to live and work here?

Fuck'em

What do you think of Peter P’s “negative feedback loop” theory?

He is correct. This is the "behavioral finance" part of asset bubbles and has been a documented part of most all speculative manias of yore. "Behavioral finance" is by its nature very hard to quantify because this is the part of economics and finance that goes over to the sociology side of the equation. But of course the efficient markets theory is based on the idea of the "rational investor" and the very existence of asset bubbles (prices disconnected from fundamentals) proves that all investors do not behave rationally in all market conditions. The "negative feedback loop" is what has caused many a past asset bubble to crash and burn. Although I feel that declines are imminent, it remains to be seen how hard this RE market will crash. We know that real estate is far less liquid than stocks and the rest of our economy is halfway decent so we may muddle through with "only" a 20 to 25% decline, or we may have some serious pain. Stay tuned for the "really big show" kiddies! Oh, and merry f'ing Christmas and a Happy New Year! I'll leave out the "many happy returns" part (unless you are investing in energy stocks).

And how are the people that are integral parts of the service economy (’Bucks employees, gas station clerks, burritto folders, etc.) suppossed to live and work here?

_smile_ Just so.

Regardless of what happens, bust, flat line, or onward and upward, the next decade will be an interesting one, won't it?

Cheers,
prat

This is shocking and appalling…you guys are truly devoid of a conscience. Perhaps you guys should do the society a great big favor and cease to exist…:p

Oh and rampant greed aka the "REAL ESTATE BOOM" is perfectly ok? Dude, get the fuck back in your Hummer, go to Crate and Barrel, buy a spoon using your Visa HELOC card and then come back and eat my ass.

How does victimizing the sincere home sellers serve any purpose or cause any good?

Sincere home sellers? You've got to fucking be kidding me, right?

buying a house is just like bidding at an auction

No you fucking retard it is not, first off all shit for fucking brains, no one out there is "buying" fuck all, ok, well maybe they are "buying" a payment. What the greater unwashed is doing is fucking with the housing market because they, like you, think they are fucking geniuses, they are really just fucking pigs being led to the trough. And I don't feel the least bit fucking sorry for them, and yes, I derive massive amounts of pleasure out of injecting a little pain and/or drama into to their shallow over consuming lives. One can only take the swaggering ItchyMcKnobsters so long before it just really isn't funny any longer. I am no longer laughing at the over-consuming asshats, I am actively dishing out what is so fucking rightly coming to them.

PS, FUCK YOU. :)

SQT,

Thanks for asking, but no Fuchs yet. Some promising leads though, the trip to the shelter this weekend might result in a mutant orange cat. Hopefully. :)

Cat’s are nototiously unfaithful.

Whore goes with anyone,
Slut goes with anyone but you.

"If you could afford to buy, do go ahead and bid, if not, there is no use bitching about the astronomical price or cause inconvenience or damage to others. Get the point? Grow up okie? Learn to deal with the difficulties that life dishes out to you." - Fake P

I love it--"if you could afford to buy" you poor widdle wretches that have to pretend there's some sort of "bubble" because you can't afford to buy a house, awwwwww, I'm sorry for you.

In terms of dealing with what life dishes out, do you mean like using your judgement to recognize when a market is over-valued instead of blindly following the crowd, deciding to rent because when you do a simple rent vs. buy analysis you realize you are saving THOUSANDS of $$ a month to rent instead of buying into a market that looks about to crash? And in the mean time save each of those thousands of dollars a month so I can put down an even bigger downpayment or even buy real estate for cash if I so desired once the market normalizes? Or just build up a big enough portfolio that my interest and dividends pay my rent? Is that what you mean by dealing with lifes difficulties? I think I'm all set, but thanks for your help you fucking sanctimonius cocksucker.

How does victimizing the sincere home sellers serve any purpose or cause any good?

What is your purpose in life?

This is shocking and appalling…you guys are truly devoid of a conscience.

The world is full of things that are shocking and appalling... what do you expect? Come experience the dark side and you will understand. :)

And btw, I find it kind of reassuring that Peter P has a dark side.

My darkes secret: I love dark chocolate.