patrick.net

Thanks, Logan. The sooner you leave the sooner we can go back to calling each other cunts and cucks again.

anonymous says

calling each other c

Awesome! so not much has changed...

Gentlemen as always, pleasure!

My favorite photo of the year, Mr. Doom and Gloom .... Marc Faber... grumpy old man with dow record tagged to his face

deepcgi says

No. The tiny bits of land, the piles of wood, nails, and sheetrock are not worth millions. The demand is NOT high. There are empty houses everywhere.

And yet rents and home prices keep going up. An explanation would be welcome.

deepcgi says

The demand is NOT high

True, mortgage demand is only back to 1998 levels, new home inventory just hit a cycle high over 6 months , and adjusting to population using a 6 month moving average sales are at par or below 5 out of the last 6 recession .... all true

Well documented here too

Existing Home Sales

https://loganmohtashami.com/2017/09/20/existing-home-sales-look-just-exactly-right/
New Home Sales

https://loganmohtashami.com/2017/09/26/new-home-sales-look-exactly-just-right/

However, you're running into a better demographic patch in a few years, this isn't like 2006, it's the exact opposite

Also be mindful that median sales price for new homes is more due to a make shift in sale prices not a drawn down lower in net prices. This is actually bullish for more unit sales growth which still even today hasn't broken off 600K for a total year

Logan Mohtashami says

Rates of cash purchases of homes are up. They were at 50%.

This is the one thing I got wrong this year in my housing predictions

I was looking for cash buyers to fall to 16%-19% this year of sales and not only did they not fall, in some months they grew year over year. Nothing to big of course, 20%-24% range, one month that was 18%




Looking for negative to no growth this year in existing home sales with slight up tick in mortgage demand and a decline in cash buyer %, existing home sales are on trend to end the year flat to negative growth but cash buyers as a % really didn't fall this year

https://loganmohtashami.com/2017/09/20/existing-home-sales-look-just-exactly-right/

Logan, interesting as always. Do you have stats for regional, say CA or the midwest etc?

As an aside do you speak englush?

Logan Mohtashami says

So even with all that, 10's lower highs and lower lows for the year big fight right now on where does it break out too.

However, we stay below 3% and that 1.60% the two times that broke lower were off the 2012 Spain default fear trade and 2016 Brexit so you need an event to break below that line.

However, that lower band range is putting up a epic fight not to break lower where in other years it would have smashed through by now

jazz_music says

This implies that investors are using a lot of mortgages.

This is the big difference between 2016 vs 2017

Heat month action in existing home sales in the mortgage purchase application data is from 2nd week of Jan until the first week of May. You can get an idea of how the year will be by the end of March really. However, last year

25% + plus growth in purchase apps in that time frame

2017 -1% to 9% growth in data

% don't = nominal volume, but you can see that the holding up pattern of cash buyers gave a bit of better demand for 2017 even though sales most likely will end the year negative year over year but not by much

lostand confused says

Do you have stats for regional, say CA or the midwest etc?

https://www.nar.realtor/news-releases/2017/09/existing-home-sales-subside-17-percent-in-august
For CA

http://www.corelogic.com/solutions/configurable-real-estate-data-reports.aspx/

Pure greed. Markets built entirely on collateralized debt and blessed asset classes. The demand for money is high. The demand for prices of real estate to continue increasing is high. In other words, second, third, or fourth empty homes. Next time you see a Chinese national with all cash, remove your expensive sunglasses, and don't forget to kneel. I lose my faith in humanity when i listen to the rich and the holy. The future generations will not be as impressed as this lot.

jazz_music says

Logan Mohtashami says

I was looking for cash buyers to fall to 16%-19% this year of sale

NAR shows sales to investors up but cash sales down. This implies that investors are using a lot of mortgages.

NAR has an obvious agenda influencing everything they say and how they say it as well. There must be some better source for such statistics less noted for deceptive practices

There is a better source.....Dan.

Why hello there @deepcgi - it's funny,I look back at all your old posts, especially your first onw where you were all shrieking and hysterical 4 years ago about why we were due for an imminent CRASH!!!!

Lol - wow, sometimes I just look back at your abysmal calls, and I just laugh and laugh and laugh!!!

anonymous says

Why hello there @deepcgi - it's funny,I look back at all your old posts, especially your first onw where you were all shrieking and hysterical 4 years ago about why we were due for an imminent CRASH!!!!

Lol - wow, sometimes I just look back at your abysmal calls, and I just laugh and laugh and laugh!!!

Wether you are into stocks or housing, over time if it wasn't for the bears the bulls would not get rich.

Wow. I go back a LOT farther than that. That's interesting. I guess I need to say it again, because nothing has changed. It won't be a crash, and the longer we postpone it, the worse it will be. Extend your charts out far enough, and you will see that the ever increasing real estate future you envision requires the young and the poor to evolve around your privileges. The rich baby boom living out its dreams of 'retiring' at 55 but not dying until 120, while their tenants are denied the same. Historically, that type of imbalance works out better for the pissed-off than the wealthy.

The most amusing part though, from the perspective of the R&D I have been involved in for the past 8 years, is that you seem to believe you will not have to tear your shacks down to the baseboards to be on the wise side of the next big fear. And no it isn't climate. This is SO much more terrifying than being unsure of where the beachfront property will be. I wonder which side of the new religion you will land upon.

What happened to the crash?

Hillary lost. That's what happened.

BlueSardine says

As an aside do you speak englush?

I know I know... bond market lingo ... I naturally assume I am speaking to an audience that knows the general baseline assumption of the topic in my language

Key lines to watch on 10's

Close above 2.44% and next trading day follow through you're testing 2.62%

We close under 2.03% next trading day follow through should get us to 1.87% on 10's

If we are to break lower in yields we should break under 2%

Last few moves lower in yield for bonds have created yield slippage at key levels, so respect the trend.

However, just be very stubborn to break below 2% this year so I have to respect the market place not letting the 10 year yield go to one handle this year

Right now conventional wisdom is we test the 2.40% - 2.44% range with the recent moves but I am still sticking to the break off that 2% level this year because 2.038% still doesn't count

Very tight range in yields this year unlike the previous years where you can see the action pre 2017 more with this chart

Logan Mohtashami says

My favorite idiot.

It hasn't happened up to now,it can never happen.
What MAGA is that the U.S. has never had a small downturn or Depression.
Happy days are always here.

CHARRRRRRRRRRRRTTTTTTTSSSSS!

Good to see a Logan thread up in here.

For guys like HEY YOU and DEEPCGI every bull agrees that in the next 500–1000 years America is finished. However we understand that just because it's "inevitable" does not mean it's "imminent".

The reality is we get about 80 spins on this planet and only 40 of which involve our finances. Thus there is a stunning arrogance in your position that the once in a millennium kaboom will happen during your watch.

For guys like HEY YOU Who is in the twilight of his existence, all I can say is I'm sorry it didn't work out for you. I'm sorry that you sidelined yourself in the 70s or 80s getting out (at DJIA under 2k) Now you are too old to risk it and must live on your meager savings for the last 15 spins you have on this planet. I'm sure you will still be here snarking and trolling till your last breath - and no doubt you WILL see other collapses, but none powerful enough to knock the markets down to the 1970s 80s level where you decided to "wait out the kaboom". Again I truly am sorry it didn't work out like you thought.

However, for younger guys like DEEPCGI There is still time for you. I truly suggest the "inevitable does not mean imminent" lesson that every investor should. Take your licks from the "1994 till current" or whatever sideline position you took and slowly start backing away from it. 40 - 50 years from now when you draw your last breath you will thank me for this. Good luck.

Logan Mohtashami says

Remember 2/3rd of our labor force have some form of college education now

And how is that going to help when competing with outsourcing and other wage pressures. You clearly don't work for a large corporation.

tr6 says

wage pressures.

Every wage factor we have is basically at all time highs

Logan Mohtashami says

Every wage factor we have is basically at all time highs

Personal income is not wages. The graph above depends on corporations paying dividends, rents going up, etc. Wages, minus factors dependent on asset inflation and wealth effect, are not that great.

tr6 says

Personal income is not wages.

Be mindful, median income is population adjusted and doesn't count for benefits

Real wages are making good gains because inflation is low

So, basically a thesis for a Roman empire collapse of America is a open war that we will lose and it won't be stimulative to the economy either like it was in the past

If you want to go with that dude, all yours

When the recession happens, unless this cycle last another 7 years, oh lord the bears would hang themselves by then... it will look more like 2000 than 2007.

However, can't look that far out in time, really working off 90 day data lines always.. Even the yearly predictions are suspect to changes late in a cycle not so much in the early years or mid cycle.

This will be the longest economic expansion ever..

The Bears never learn. There is no no reason for a recession on the horizon. We are gonna see the greatest home construction boom in the next few years. Home building and it's related services are such a huge part of the economy, there is no way we can have a recession. Sure there will be a recession one day, but not in the foreseeable future.

Strategist says

greatest home construction boom in the next few years.

Years 2020-2024 you have better demographics for housing construction, always was going to be impossible to hit the 50 year moving average in this cycle but the next decade should look better than that chart above due to chart below

As we have replacement workers we do have replacement buyers, just have less capacity in context to boomers because of all the homes we have built for decades as those homes will still be around when the boomers die off



Single family starts still growing, MF boom in terms of rate of growth has cooled down since the 2015 Tax credit expiration

https://loganmohtashami.com/2017/09/19/hurricanes-harvey-irma-maria-and-housing-starts/

Logan Mohtashami says

Years 2020-2024 you have better demographics for housing construction, always was going to be impossible to hit the 50 year moving average in this cycle but the next decade should look better than that chart above due to chart below

As we have replacement workers we do have replacement buyers, just have less capacity in context to boomers because of all the homes we have built for decades as those homes will still be around when the boomers die off

What a beauty. We have a lot of catching up to do in the home building sector.. Add to that the positive demographics emerging for the home construction business.
It's an opportunity of a lifetime folks. Buy homebuilders NOW.

Strategist says

Buy homebuilders NOW.

KBH $10 bucks was a steal back then ;-)

Three generations ago we would be spending this time hustling to ensure we had enough to eat next week.

Now, we spend that time on the Internet screeching at one another about how "terrible" everything is.

deepcgi says

The most amusing part though, from the perspective of the R&D I have been involved in for the past 8 years, is that you seem to believe you will not have to tear your shacks down to the baseboards to be on the wise side of the next big fear.

Tell us more.

Logan Mohtashami says

Strategist says

Buy homebuilders NOW.

KBH $10 bucks was a steal back then ;-)

It's still a steal. My largest holding is "ITB" - Home builder ETF. Up 33% in the last 12 months.

Strategist says

"ITB"

KBH since $10

Logan Mohtashami says

1. Longest job expansion in U.S. history, almost double the previous record

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=fgh1
1959 - 1973: 25 million jobs gained ~50% expansion in jobs vs. 30% expansion of working-age population.

[mild recession in 1960 saw 200,000 jobs (0.4% of workforce) lost but that's irrelevant to the bigger picture]

1974 - 1980: 12 million jobs gained -- 16% expansion in jobs vs. 12% expansion in population

1981- 1990: +18M jobs -- 20% expansion in jobs vs. 10% expansion in population

1991 - 2000: +22M jobs -- 20% expansion vs. 13% demographics

2001 - 2006: +6M jobs -- 4.5% expansion vs. 7.8% demographics (in 2005 boomer echo was age 5-23)

2007-2016: +6M jobs, 4.6% expansion vs. 5% demographics

(these are peak-to-peak numbers, Dec 2007 employment level wasn't recovered until mid-2014)



shows how the Fed pumped $3.4T of new money into the economy 2009-2014.



red is corporate profits added. Flat since 2012 oddly enough. Something rotten in the State of Denmark with that.

Graccius was about 150 years before Diocletian. So if we are (your words) mirroring Rome year for year we have a 150 year golden era before peak and several hundred years of decline.

Double hooray!!!

Bellingham Bill says

(these are peak-to-peak numbers, Dec 2007 employment level wasn't recovered until mid-2014)