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What Happened To The Great American Crash?!?!?!?!
2017 Sep 30, 11:27am 28,670 views 132 comments
by _ follow (8)
Comments 1 - 17 of 132 Next » Last » Search these comments
1
anonymous
2017 Sep 30, 3:05pm
Logan - in all sincerity, I appreciate you coming back form time to time to rub the faces of the Patnet "doomers" in their failed calls.
In the early days of the blogosphere, I just assumed that if someone was commenting they actually knew what they were talking about. Naïve, I know, but I had no idea that housing sites would be dominated by complete imbeciles - the "Anti American Bears" as you called them who truly did seem to hate, well pretty much everything.
It pleases me to see that there still mostly here and still stuck in their failed lives - but it pleases me even more when you come back pick up the big shit sandwiches they made and shove them down their throats. Again, thank you!
In the early days of the blogosphere, I just assumed that if someone was commenting they actually knew what they were talking about. Naïve, I know, but I had no idea that housing sites would be dominated by complete imbeciles - the "Anti American Bears" as you called them who truly did seem to hate, well pretty much everything.
It pleases me to see that there still mostly here and still stuck in their failed lives - but it pleases me even more when you come back pick up the big shit sandwiches they made and shove them down their throats. Again, thank you!
2
joeyjojojunior
@
2017 Sep 30, 4:23pm
And Logan is back for the 1000th time after promising that he was done.
You're like a crack addict.
You're like a crack addict.
3
Strategist
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2017 Sep 30, 4:38pm
Strategist
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2017 Sep 30, 4:38pm
Logan Mohtashami says
They're shooting bears wherever they find them. Not a good time to be a bear.
Hey Logan, are we rich yet?
American bears have been wrong since 1790..... and you all will be too!
They're shooting bears wherever they find them. Not a good time to be a bear.
Hey Logan, are we rich yet?
4
_
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2017 Sep 30, 5:00pm
_
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2017 Sep 30, 5:00pm
joeyjojojunior says
This is the 2nd post of the year. However, I use this site as example of Anti American bashing from old men who hide behind fake names and no photos
Oh please don't ever get wise to my act, I have got a whole entire 21 year plan for you bears who can't read macro data lines but push Anti American non sense
Keep it up gents... Keep up the American bashing with crash theories of deflation and inflation ....
In the real world you can't hide behind fake names
And Logan is back for the 1000th time after promising that he was done.
This is the 2nd post of the year. However, I use this site as example of Anti American bashing from old men who hide behind fake names and no photos
Oh please don't ever get wise to my act, I have got a whole entire 21 year plan for you bears who can't read macro data lines but push Anti American non sense
Keep it up gents... Keep up the American bashing with crash theories of deflation and inflation ....
In the real world you can't hide behind fake names
5
_
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2017 Sep 30, 5:00pm
_
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2017 Sep 30, 5:00pm
What happened to silver gold bug people??? Just about when gold look like it might break a down trend since 2011 and reach 5,000
6
_
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2017 Sep 30, 5:03pm
_
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2017 Sep 30, 5:03pm
Strategist says
MASI had one hell of a run! I told you man KB homes at $10 bucks! I am up 43% YTD its been a good year
Went to Maldives for New Years eve! One hell of Trip and then to Jumby Bay for 10 days last month
Hey Logan, are we rich yet?
MASI had one hell of a run! I told you man KB homes at $10 bucks! I am up 43% YTD its been a good year
Went to Maldives for New Years eve! One hell of Trip and then to Jumby Bay for 10 days last month
8
_
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2017 Sep 30, 5:12pm
_
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2017 Sep 30, 5:12pm
just any guy says
Timeline, method, thesis, It's a on going process
A. Over investment thesis in a cycle
B. Inflation to be fought
C. Labor unit cost to really hit the bottom line
D. Unemployment claims to rise off a certain basis % from a base low
E. (Never) had a post WWII recession without LEI falling 4-6 months into a recessionary data curves
Rules, can't just randomly push crash theories with out a reason
It's easy to be right until you're not.
Timeline, method, thesis, It's a on going process
A. Over investment thesis in a cycle
B. Inflation to be fought
C. Labor unit cost to really hit the bottom line
D. Unemployment claims to rise off a certain basis % from a base low
E. (Never) had a post WWII recession without LEI falling 4-6 months into a recessionary data curves
Rules, can't just randomly push crash theories with out a reason
9
_
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2017 Sep 30, 5:17pm
_
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2017 Sep 30, 5:17pm
You guys remember the PMI recession bears of 2015 and 2016..
Holy S#$#)#)(
I told you they were going to be a disaster fail call
Don't put this all on conservative calling for Crash .... MMT people were calling for recessions especially Warren Mosler because he put way too much faith in the PMI data
MMT and Gold Bugs.... debt deflation and Hyper inflation crew, get these two groups in a bar.. wow
Holy S#$#)#)(
I told you they were going to be a disaster fail call
Don't put this all on conservative calling for Crash .... MMT people were calling for recessions especially Warren Mosler because he put way too much faith in the PMI data
MMT and Gold Bugs.... debt deflation and Hyper inflation crew, get these two groups in a bar.. wow
10
_
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2017 Sep 30, 5:20pm
_
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2017 Sep 30, 5:20pm
Now the world economies are all working together .... goodness.... what happened???
as oil rises, trade rises and Japan and Europe get some more output action
as oil rises, trade rises and Japan and Europe get some more output action
11
_
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2017 Sep 30, 5:21pm
_
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2017 Sep 30, 5:21pm
Now to be fair!
Low bar for 2017, Q1 and Q2 earnings because oil and mining where in a recession, that kept 2017 safe, that low bar is gone for 2018
Low bar for 2017, Q1 and Q2 earnings because oil and mining where in a recession, that kept 2017 safe, that low bar is gone for 2018
13
_
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2017 Sep 30, 5:35pm
_
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2017 Sep 30, 5:35pm
Logan Mohtashami says
"For 2017, I am sticking to my call that the 10-year yield will channel between 1.60% to 3%. Yes, I do expect to see a 1% handle again"
From my 2017 Economic and Housing Predictions
https://loganmohtashami.com/2016/12/31/2017-housing-economic-predictions/
So far we haven't gotten that 1 handle yet on 10's
2.038% still doesn't count
Battle here for sure, maybe test 2.44% before falling again. However, still sticking to a 1 handle call
Oil held up better than I thought this year and the world economies are now working together, Have you all seen the world ETF's this year, finally Russia got positive
So even with all that, 10's lower highs and lower lows for the year big fight right now on where does it break out too.
However, we stay below 3% and that 1.60% the two times that broke lower were off the 2012 Spain default fear trade and 2016 Brexit so you need an event to break below that line.
However, that lower band range is putting up a epic fight not to break lower where in other years it would have smashed through by now
What's your prognostication on the 10yr. yield?
"For 2017, I am sticking to my call that the 10-year yield will channel between 1.60% to 3%. Yes, I do expect to see a 1% handle again"
From my 2017 Economic and Housing Predictions
https://loganmohtashami.com/2016/12/31/2017-housing-economic-predictions/
So far we haven't gotten that 1 handle yet on 10's
2.038% still doesn't count
Battle here for sure, maybe test 2.44% before falling again. However, still sticking to a 1 handle call
Oil held up better than I thought this year and the world economies are now working together, Have you all seen the world ETF's this year, finally Russia got positive
So even with all that, 10's lower highs and lower lows for the year big fight right now on where does it break out too.
However, we stay below 3% and that 1.60% the two times that broke lower were off the 2012 Spain default fear trade and 2016 Brexit so you need an event to break below that line.
However, that lower band range is putting up a epic fight not to break lower where in other years it would have smashed through by now
14
anonymous
2017 Sep 30, 5:40pm
Thanks, Logan. What do you see as the economic conditions concomitant with that 1% handle?
15
deepcgi
@
2017 Sep 30, 5:41pm
deepcgi
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2017 Sep 30, 5:41pm
What happened to the Great American Crash? Great American Cash!
I wish it actually smelled like mint, don’t you? Perhaps a scratch and sniff hundred with a touch of chocolate. Except the Washington’s and Jackson’s should smell like slave sweat, instead, no?
Your S&P chart shows the inflation quite plainly. It is in the assets this time, but It won’t be a crash. It will be long painful doldrums dressed up as a nice sunny day.
I would recommend shorting the Powdered Wig Market, though.
I just keep walking away from huge money deals because it is always tied to a-holes whose only charity arrives only out of their cognitive dissonance. I think I will continue that trend.
No. The tiny bits of land, the piles of wood, nails, and sheetrock are not worth millions. The demand is NOT high. There are empty houses everywhere.
And stop insulting my favorite country by equating it with the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department. It is not those institutions which made this country great. They just gave you great opportunities to be an a-hole.
I wish it actually smelled like mint, don’t you? Perhaps a scratch and sniff hundred with a touch of chocolate. Except the Washington’s and Jackson’s should smell like slave sweat, instead, no?
Your S&P chart shows the inflation quite plainly. It is in the assets this time, but It won’t be a crash. It will be long painful doldrums dressed up as a nice sunny day.
I would recommend shorting the Powdered Wig Market, though.
I just keep walking away from huge money deals because it is always tied to a-holes whose only charity arrives only out of their cognitive dissonance. I think I will continue that trend.
No. The tiny bits of land, the piles of wood, nails, and sheetrock are not worth millions. The demand is NOT high. There are empty houses everywhere.
And stop insulting my favorite country by equating it with the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department. It is not those institutions which made this country great. They just gave you great opportunities to be an a-hole.
16
_
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2017 Sep 30, 5:43pm
_
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2017 Sep 30, 5:43pm
anonymous says
I would tell you this for that 1 handle call, and some of you that follow me on facebook would know this
If oil had broke under $43.. that would get you a one handle, now 2.038% was close but not there
Now, stock wise $$$ flow into bonds ?
4th longest period ever without a 5% pull back
2nd longest period ever without a 3% pull back
VIX is the walking dead ... any little noise or down draft below $43 on oil should get a 1 handle but 1 quarter left, so that 1 handle 10 year print only has 3 months left
What do you see as the economic conditions concomitant with that 1% handle?
I would tell you this for that 1 handle call, and some of you that follow me on facebook would know this
If oil had broke under $43.. that would get you a one handle, now 2.038% was close but not there
Now, stock wise $$$ flow into bonds ?
4th longest period ever without a 5% pull back
2nd longest period ever without a 3% pull back
VIX is the walking dead ... any little noise or down draft below $43 on oil should get a 1 handle but 1 quarter left, so that 1 handle 10 year print only has 3 months left
17
_
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2017 Sep 30, 5:46pm
_
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2017 Sep 30, 5:46pm
You guys all remember the time stamp thread here with the video and all that bait ...
What happened then?
Well oil was crashing .... that was the risk to other economies and the oil, mining sector... didn't see the major big BK's smaller players yes... so why is 2017 so quiet
Oil up, risk down world trade picked up everyone is happy for now
What happened then?
Well oil was crashing .... that was the risk to other economies and the oil, mining sector... didn't see the major big BK's smaller players yes... so why is 2017 so quiet
Oil up, risk down world trade picked up everyone is happy for now
Comments 1 - 17 of 132 Next » Last » Search these comments
B. You can't read data properly
C. Anti Central bank trolls have a sexual obsession over the Fed hence why they're wrong
D. The extreme left wing makes everyone out to poor to hate on Capitalism
This is what we have now
1. Longest job expansion in U.S. history, almost double the previous record
2. In less than 2 years we have the longest economic expansion ever in history
3. Which makes it the first time ever in U.S. history we had the longest economic expansion and job expansion in one cycle
4. This with the highest job openings in the history of mankind
American bears have been wrong since 1790..... and you all will be too! Economic cycles come and go but either a inflationary or deflationary collapse has and won't happen.
https://loganmohtashami.com/2017/09/05/the-state-of-the-u-s-job-market/