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We need more housing


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2018 Apr 26, 4:16pm   1,545 views  5 comments

by Patrick   ➕follow (58)   💰tip   ignore  

From a reader:

I have a question for you in regards to real estate. I have this friend who is a total bull when it comes to real estate (he's done well)

He claims there was no shortage of housing back in 2006 or thereabouts, I say there was.

See this chart: clearly showing shortage of houses since the '80's.

What you say?




I say we definitely have major shortages of housing in California coastal cities now, just like we did back in 2006. The biggest reason for the bubble around here is simply that all the local municipalities deliberately block most new housing. Not that the places in that graph that have enough housing are all well inland.

CA bill 827 was the only real attempt to block the NIMBYs from harming everyone by selfishly refusing to allow new housing in their areas. It failed because all the NIMBYs blocked it deliberately in order to keep prices too high for most people.

https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=201720180SB827

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1   ForcedTQ   2018 Apr 26, 4:37pm  

I'm not backing or taking the NIMBY's side, but damn. When the hell do we get rational people with the ability to think critically and realize when population increase may not be "sustainable." You know, use their own buzzwords against them. Why must the .GOOBERMENT generate a bill to force housing being built. Most city dwellers haven't a clue what it takes in Acres for them to live; as they increase their population density and maintain a certain llifestyle necessitates acquiring the resources they need from outside their homestead. They are extremely disconnected, and unfortunately are the vast majority of "deciders" of legislation in the "Blue" states. Very similar to the fucking EPA and CAFE. Just like forcing manufacturers to produce cars that attain a certain average MPG, or else face very large "Fines."

There is something wrong with the majority of people; it's a lack of integrity, willpower, and follow through. If you want to purchase a car that returns 50 MPG, feel free to petition a manufacturer for it, hell, get a private group going to persuade them to build it. Don't force it with fines paid for by your fellow man who is happy buying a vehicle that returns 25 MPG. Vilifying of the non-hypermiler mentality is very my team against your team. The government sees the citizens as cattle to be controlled, but that's not the way it's supposed to be, the people are to be controlling the government. Let's take it back. Retake, Reduce, Rescind.
2   Malcolm   2018 Apr 26, 5:04pm  

Coastal properties are desirable, because they are coastal, there is a finite amount of space. It is a natural shortage, which is why they cost more. That in itself is not a bubble and will continue to be the norm. If job creation happens inland, some demand will be alleviated and you could see price declines from an exodus of people who no longer are desperately bidding up coastal areas to be near a job.

Many of the prime areas of the coast are owned by successful people who don't view their homes as investments. They tend to be shielded from bubble bursts, because they are not reactionary like speculative flippers who dump a house as soon as it drops in value.

That''s just my long way of saying, it costs more to live on the coast due to a geographic shortage of space. It has little to with this or that law. The space is precious and those with an interest in it will make sure it is rationed in a way to maximize the value and the tax base. It's business.
3   Patrick   2018 Apr 26, 5:14pm  

Malcolm says
it costs more to live on the coast due to a geographic shortage of space. It has little to with this or that law. The space is precious and those with an interest in it will make sure it is rationed in a way to maximize the value and the tax base.


That sound contradictory to me. If it has little to do with this or that law, why are those with an interest in it making sure it remains rationed by law to themselves alone?

But also, I'd say that they are clearly not maximizing the value and the tax base. Far from it. They are minimizing the value to the public and minimizing the tax base by keeping everyone else out. More density near transit means a bigger economy for everyone.
4   Patrick   2018 Apr 26, 5:23pm  

ForcedTQ says
Why must the .GOOBERMENT generate a bill to force housing being built.


Note that bill 837 was not forcing anyone to build any housing.

It was simply allowing developers to build taller higher density housing near public transit even if NIMBY municipalities try to force them not to.
5   Malcolm   2018 Apr 26, 5:26pm  

I can see how it seems contradictory. It's one of those things that is counter-intuitive. You would think higher density, higher value. Not on the coast. The reason those areas cost so much is because they are nice. They are nice because they are on the coast and wealthy people bought at the right time. You can't just demand that through eminent domain you are going to take their 2 acre spread and then put a rent controlled apartment complex there, and then expect the tax base to support the new infrastructure that needs to go in, including bus stations, because obviously they can't afford cars. Agree or disagree, do you at least understand my angle?

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