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Doesn't sound like you're too confident.
"Gaining seats" means nothing. The Dems can gain "1 seat" and you win $500, but the Dems would have no control over the House or the Senate.
Gaining 1 seat means one more Dem vote.
Well, I'm glad those are the type of victories the Dems are getting excited for. It means that the perception of the blue wave has become the "blew wave".
That makes me happy.
Actually you'll be sad then when they gain control of the House.
Actually you'll be sad then when they gain control of the House.
I'll do a bet on who KEEPS the house and Senate.
I do not think there is any chance in hell that D's will win Senate...so the bet is a losing proposition for person betting against you.
Yes, but the "blue wave" was supposed to be an over take of both houses.
I wonder why!
The house is the actual real battle. But the funny thing is, it should not be a battle. Incumbents have only kept it 4 times in US History. But for some reason, it's gotten so close again.
It really hasn't. It's only close in your mind.
November 5th: "NYT and 538 say the Dems have a 98% of winning the Senate"
November 7th: "Uh, you're such an ignorant. The NYT/538 never said the Dems would win the Senate. Only a 98% chance. You don't understand math!"
Maybe a repeat of 2016?
Maybe you should go get an NPR or CNN/NBC/WallStreet Journal poll to REALLY convince me.
Maybe a repeat of 2016?
Uh--wtf are you talking about? That example has no resemblance to anything 538 every said.
little guy (not the tranny guy)
LeonDurham saysUh--wtf are you talking about? That example has no resemblance to anything 538 every said.
Official NYT Prediction: "only 93%" chance to win two weeks before the election.
So when I say that 538 never said anything like what you posted, you counter with quotes from:
Huffpost,and NYT?
Typical disingenuous Trump cultist response.
And nate silver himself. Go back and read. I even included a link.
There will be no "Blue Wave", change my mind!
I'd rather just let the outcome change your mind.
70 doesn't equal 99. Hopefully you know that.
Nate Silver had Hillary at 86% this date in 2016. He his final prediction was 302 electoral votes, just about the opposite of the actual outcome.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
I’m the one who suggested the Skin In The Game because right wingers have been talking so much shit with no skin in the game.
Yet y’all don’t seem so confident if you’re offering only + ev. odds on your “bold prediction”
Ok. According to historical trends, losing 30 seats in house and 4 seats in Senate is typical for 1st midterm election.
LeonDurham must be using a lot of personal attacks, much worse than the right wingers
Yes, this does seem to be true.
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Yesterday former Bill Clinton advisor Dick Morris told radio host on New York's AM 970 that he believes the "blue wave" that Democrats are expecting to give them back the Senate and House will not materialize, and polling has backed him up.
Last week, CNN's mid term poll showed that Democrats only had a 3 point advantage, well within the margin of error, and considering that CNN is known for "oversampling" Democrats in its own polls, this is troubling for the DNC.
Additionally, a recent poll from Reuters (left leaning) has shown that Millennials are leaving the Democrat party in droves. Democrat membership in the 18-34 demographic (the bread and butter of the DNC) dropped 9% over the past 2 years, most of them becoming "independents".
"I think that [Democrats] see fool’s gold in these scandals," Morris said. "They’re putting everything behind the Stormy Daniels scandal and Michael Cohen … and the country doesn’t give a damn."
That's when Morris dropped his prediction.
"There is no blue wave coming," Morris exclaimed. "There is a red wave. And what makes it red is the blood of the Democratic Party."
Here's my official take. I believe the GOP will LOSE seats in the house but will not give it up to the DNC. I believe the GOP will GAIN seats in the senate, keeping their majority. This will mean that Trump will have both houses of congress for his entire term.