patrick.net
An Antidote to Corporate Media
1,260,518 comments by 15,051 users - desertguy, HeadSet online now
There will be no "Blue Wave", change my mind!
invite response
2018 May 14, 8:51am 79,979 views 699 comments
« First « Previous Comments 263 - 302 of 699 Next » Last » Search these comments
264
Bd6r
2018 Oct 11, 7:58am
Bd6r
2018 Oct 11, 7:58am
Patrick says
I frankly can't make up my mind on this. R's will hold Senate for sure, may be even gain a seat or two, but House is extremely unpredictable. My prediction is +/- same situation as now.
I'm betting Democrats lose even more seats. Not certain, just a feeling
I frankly can't make up my mind on this. R's will hold Senate for sure, may be even gain a seat or two, but House is extremely unpredictable. My prediction is +/- same situation as now.
267
Goran_K
2018 Oct 12, 12:54pm
Goran_K
2018 Oct 12, 12:54pm
Aphroman says
I want some.
How does matchbook work? Are we betting against each other or against the house? I'll only do this if I'm betting against your pocket book. I can bet on odds all day, that's not fun.
Goran: go to matchbook.com I’m offering up Ted Cruz vs Beto O’Rourke action, who wants some!
I want some.
How does matchbook work? Are we betting against each other or against the house? I'll only do this if I'm betting against your pocket book. I can bet on odds all day, that's not fun.
268
Goran_K
2018 Oct 12, 12:55pm
Goran_K
2018 Oct 12, 12:55pm
or lets just do a gentleman's $500 bet right now. I take Cruz straight up, you take Beta.
269
cmdrda2leak
2018 Oct 12, 1:53pm
cmdrda2leak
2018 Oct 12, 1:53pm
Goran_K says
pat.net feature request: current events wager book.
or lets just do a gentleman's $500 bet right now. I take Cruz straight up, you take Beta.
pat.net feature request: current events wager book.
270
Shaman
2018 Oct 12, 2:04pm
Shaman
2018 Oct 12, 2:04pm
Perhaps we could make bets and the loser has to donate to Patnet in the agreed upon amount?
I bet you a $100 donation to Patnet that there’s a Red Wave this November. That we end up with more Republicans in Congress than before the election.
Aphroman wanna take that bet? Patrick can ban any welshers!
I bet you a $100 donation to Patnet that there’s a Red Wave this November. That we end up with more Republicans in Congress than before the election.
Aphroman wanna take that bet? Patrick can ban any welshers!
271
Goran_K
2018 Oct 12, 2:32pm
Goran_K
2018 Oct 12, 2:32pm
MockingbirdKiller says
Blew Wave!
Full disclosure to @Aphroman: Democrat running in a Florida district Trump LOST by TWENTY points in 2016 is behind her GOP opponent.
Blew Wave!
272
Goran_K
2018 Oct 12, 2:49pm
Goran_K
2018 Oct 12, 2:49pm
cmdrdataleak says
I think this would be a good feature @patrick. Could plug into PayPal.
Right now a lot of people talk way too much shit because it's free.
I'd like someone to talk shit when $500 is on the line.
pat.net feature request: current events wager book.
I think this would be a good feature @patrick. Could plug into PayPal.
Right now a lot of people talk way too much shit because it's free.
I'd like someone to talk shit when $500 is on the line.
274
LeonDurham
2018 Oct 12, 4:30pm
How about $500 on who gains in the House?
Goran wins if Republicans pick up seats, I win if Dems pick up seats.
Goran wins if Republicans pick up seats, I win if Dems pick up seats.
275
Goran_K
2018 Oct 12, 4:34pm
Goran_K
2018 Oct 12, 4:34pm
LeonDurham says
I'll do a bet on who KEEPS the house and Senate.
If the Dems recover the house but not the senate (or vice versa) then it's a wash.
But it Dems pick up both (aka Blue Wave), I pay you $500.
If GOP keeps both, you pay me $500.
I'll take bets on this up to $2000 from other people who want to throw their money on the table.
Would you do that bet?
How about $500 on who gains in the House?
Goran wins if Republicans pick up seats, I win if Dems pick up seats.
I'll do a bet on who KEEPS the house and Senate.
If the Dems recover the house but not the senate (or vice versa) then it's a wash.
But it Dems pick up both (aka Blue Wave), I pay you $500.
If GOP keeps both, you pay me $500.
I'll take bets on this up to $2000 from other people who want to throw their money on the table.
Would you do that bet?
276
LeonDurham
2018 Oct 12, 4:36pm
I thought you were predicting a red wave? Doesn't sound like you're too confident.
277
Bd6r
2018 Oct 12, 4:38pm
Bd6r
2018 Oct 12, 4:38pm
Interesting re. Hispanics, who are supposed to vote D reliably...but apparently not in TX
A new poll released Thursday morning showed Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz has stabilized his lead over his Democrat challenger, U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke of El Paso.
Fifty-four percent of Texans backed Cruz, while 45 percent backed O'Rourke in the latest Quinnipiac University poll.
The poll also shows Republican Gov. Greg Abbott with a prohibitive lead over his Democratic rival, former Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez, 58 percent to 38 percent.
Strikingly, while Valdez and O'Rourke have consolidated support among African Americans, Abbott and Cruz garnered sizable Hispanic support. Cruz had the backing of 37 percent of Hispanic respondents while nearly half of Hispanics surveyed — 46 percent — supported Abbott.
https://www.texastribune.org/2018/10/11/cruz-orourke-poll-senate-texas/
https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2578
A new poll released Thursday morning showed Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz has stabilized his lead over his Democrat challenger, U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke of El Paso.
Fifty-four percent of Texans backed Cruz, while 45 percent backed O'Rourke in the latest Quinnipiac University poll.
The poll also shows Republican Gov. Greg Abbott with a prohibitive lead over his Democratic rival, former Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez, 58 percent to 38 percent.
Strikingly, while Valdez and O'Rourke have consolidated support among African Americans, Abbott and Cruz garnered sizable Hispanic support. Cruz had the backing of 37 percent of Hispanic respondents while nearly half of Hispanics surveyed — 46 percent — supported Abbott.
https://www.texastribune.org/2018/10/11/cruz-orourke-poll-senate-texas/
https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2578
278
Goran_K
2018 Oct 12, 4:39pm
Goran_K
2018 Oct 12, 4:39pm
LeonDurham says
I'm confident that there will be no Blue Wave, hence this thread.
I'm also willing to put $500 on it. Are you?
"Gaining seats" means nothing. The Dems can gain "1 seat" and you win $500, but the Dems would have no control over the House or the Senate.
I'm betting for CONTROL of both houses (aka Blue Wave). But you seem to doubt it will happen , hence you're not accepting the bet?
Doesn't sound like you're too confident.
I'm confident that there will be no Blue Wave, hence this thread.
I'm also willing to put $500 on it. Are you?
"Gaining seats" means nothing. The Dems can gain "1 seat" and you win $500, but the Dems would have no control over the House or the Senate.
I'm betting for CONTROL of both houses (aka Blue Wave). But you seem to doubt it will happen , hence you're not accepting the bet?
279
LeonDurham
2018 Oct 12, 4:45pm
Goran_K says
Gaining 1 seat means one more Dem vote. It most definitely means something.
Yes, I highly doubt the Dems will win the Senate. It's a longshot.
"Gaining seats" means nothing. The Dems can gain "1 seat" and you win $500, but the Dems would have no control over the House or the Senate.
Gaining 1 seat means one more Dem vote. It most definitely means something.
Yes, I highly doubt the Dems will win the Senate. It's a longshot.
280
Goran_K
2018 Oct 12, 4:47pm
Goran_K
2018 Oct 12, 4:47pm
LeonDurham says
Well, I'm glad those are the type of victories the Dems are getting excited for. It means that the perception of the blue wave has become the "blew wave".
That makes me happy.
Gaining 1 seat means one more Dem vote.
Well, I'm glad those are the type of victories the Dems are getting excited for. It means that the perception of the blue wave has become the "blew wave".
That makes me happy.
281
LeonDurham
2018 Oct 12, 4:52pm
Goran_K says
Actually you'll be sad then when they gain control of the House.
Well, I'm glad those are the type of victories the Dems are getting excited for. It means that the perception of the blue wave has become the "blew wave".
That makes me happy.
Actually you'll be sad then when they gain control of the House.
282
Goran_K
2018 Oct 12, 4:53pm
Goran_K
2018 Oct 12, 4:53pm
LeonDurham says
And if they don't? Will you disappear or change your screen name again joey/tatupu/leon?
I'm happy for the 2 SCOTUS picks, 29 judges for the United States Courts of Appeals, 53 judges for the United States District Courts, and 49 Federal Judge appointments that will ALL be confirmed by next week.
All of whom will help deny anymore SJW/Dem/Socialist insanity.
Actually you'll be sad then when they gain control of the House.
And if they don't? Will you disappear or change your screen name again joey/tatupu/leon?
I'm happy for the 2 SCOTUS picks, 29 judges for the United States Courts of Appeals, 53 judges for the United States District Courts, and 49 Federal Judge appointments that will ALL be confirmed by next week.
All of whom will help deny anymore SJW/Dem/Socialist insanity.
283
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Oct 12, 4:56pm
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Oct 12, 4:56pm
LeonDurham says
They'll finally be able to get Trump on all that Russian Collusion evidence that Mueller has.
But I think Americans won't fall for that Democratic Okie-Dokie.
Actually you'll be sad then when they gain control of the House.
They'll finally be able to get Trump on all that Russian Collusion evidence that Mueller has.
But I think Americans won't fall for that Democratic Okie-Dokie.
284
Bd6r
2018 Oct 12, 4:58pm
Bd6r
2018 Oct 12, 4:58pm
Goran_K says
I do not think there is any chance in hell that D's will win Senate...so the bet is a losing proposition for person betting against you.
I'll do a bet on who KEEPS the house and Senate.
I do not think there is any chance in hell that D's will win Senate...so the bet is a losing proposition for person betting against you.
285
Goran_K
2018 Oct 12, 5:00pm
Goran_K
2018 Oct 12, 5:00pm
dr6B says
Yes, but the "blue wave" was supposed to be an over take of both houses.
The senate (we all know) is lost.
The house is the actual real battle. But the funny thing is, it should not be a battle. Incumbents have only kept it 4 times in US History. But for some reason, it's gotten so close again.
I wonder why!
I do not think there is any chance in hell that D's will win Senate...so the bet is a losing proposition for person betting against you.
Yes, but the "blue wave" was supposed to be an over take of both houses.
The senate (we all know) is lost.
The house is the actual real battle. But the funny thing is, it should not be a battle. Incumbents have only kept it 4 times in US History. But for some reason, it's gotten so close again.
I wonder why!
286
RC2006
2018 Oct 12, 5:01pm
RC2006
2018 Oct 12, 5:01pm
Even on NPR they think democrats fucked up and energized Republicans over SC drama.
287
LeonDurham
2018 Oct 12, 5:03pm
Goran_K says
"supposed" What the hell does that mean? It's always been almost impossible for Dems to win the Senate--even in a blue tsunami it's a tall order.
Yes, but the "blue wave" was supposed to be an over take of both houses.
"supposed" What the hell does that mean? It's always been almost impossible for Dems to win the Senate--even in a blue tsunami it's a tall order.
288
Bd6r
2018 Oct 12, 5:03pm
Bd6r
2018 Oct 12, 5:03pm
Goran_K says
I'd say both sides are crooks but only one of the sides is fucking insane, and that is why "blue wave" will not materialize.
I wonder why!
I'd say both sides are crooks but only one of the sides is fucking insane, and that is why "blue wave" will not materialize.
289
LeonDurham
2018 Oct 12, 5:04pm
Goran_K says
It really hasn't. It's only close in your mind.
And that's why you won't bet on House control.
The house is the actual real battle. But the funny thing is, it should not be a battle. Incumbents have only kept it 4 times in US History. But for some reason, it's gotten so close again.
It really hasn't. It's only close in your mind.
And that's why you won't bet on House control.
290
Goran_K
2018 Oct 12, 5:05pm
Goran_K
2018 Oct 12, 5:05pm
LeonDurham says
Maybe you should go get an NPR or CNN/NBC/WallStreet Journal poll to REALLY convince me.
It really hasn't. It's only close in your mind.
Maybe you should go get an NPR or CNN/NBC/WallStreet Journal poll to REALLY convince me.
291
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Oct 12, 5:08pm
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Oct 12, 5:08pm
November 5th: "NYT and 538 say the Dems have a 98% of winning the Senate"
November 7th: "Uh, you're such an ignorant. The NYT/538 never said the Dems would win the Senate. Only a 98% chance. You don't understand math!"
Maybe a repeat of 2016?
November 7th: "Uh, you're such an ignorant. The NYT/538 never said the Dems would win the Senate. Only a 98% chance. You don't understand math!"
Maybe a repeat of 2016?
292
RC2006
2018 Oct 12, 5:15pm
RC2006
2018 Oct 12, 5:15pm
I hope dems get blown out, then maybe they will get off the crazy train and back to working class politics and the little guy (not the tranny guy).
293
LeonDurham
2018 Oct 12, 5:15pm
TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
Uh--wtf are you talking about? That example has no resemblance to anything 538 every said.
November 5th: "NYT and 538 say the Dems have a 98% of winning the Senate"
November 7th: "Uh, you're such an ignorant. The NYT/538 never said the Dems would win the Senate. Only a 98% chance. You don't understand math!"
Maybe a repeat of 2016?
Uh--wtf are you talking about? That example has no resemblance to anything 538 every said.
294
LeonDurham
2018 Oct 12, 5:16pm
Goran_K says
Great---then you should be happy to bet on House control, right?
Maybe you should go get an NPR or CNN/NBC/WallStreet Journal poll to REALLY convince me.
Great---then you should be happy to bet on House control, right?
295
Bd6r
2018 Oct 12, 5:16pm
Bd6r
2018 Oct 12, 5:16pm
TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
If D's pull off another crap of the type Kavanaugh is Guilty Because He Has A Penis, then we can not exclude 2016 repeat.
I do not like however total dominance of one party, as constant winning will bring out village idiots in R ranks, namely religious fanatics.
Maybe a repeat of 2016?
If D's pull off another crap of the type Kavanaugh is Guilty Because He Has A Penis, then we can not exclude 2016 repeat.
I do not like however total dominance of one party, as constant winning will bring out village idiots in R ranks, namely religious fanatics.
296
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Oct 12, 5:20pm
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Oct 12, 5:20pm
LeonDurham says
Official NYT Prediction: "only 93%" chance to win two weeks before the election.
I couldn't find the morning November 8th one, but here is the NYT official prediction as of 10PM EST on Election Day:
Nate "only" had her at 70% chance of winning.
https://www.theepochtimes.com/nate-silver-of-538-makes-final-election-day-prediction_2182990.html
And here's HuffPo
Uh--wtf are you talking about? That example has no resemblance to anything 538 every said.
Official NYT Prediction: "only 93%" chance to win two weeks before the election.
I couldn't find the morning November 8th one, but here is the NYT official prediction as of 10PM EST on Election Day:
Nate "only" had her at 70% chance of winning.
https://www.theepochtimes.com/nate-silver-of-538-makes-final-election-day-prediction_2182990.html
And here's HuffPo
297
Bd6r
2018 Oct 12, 5:21pm
Bd6r
2018 Oct 12, 5:21pm
RC2006 says
we can only wish, but humans tend to double down on their mistakes. I suspect D's will be helping the little tranny guy...
little guy (not the tranny guy)
we can only wish, but humans tend to double down on their mistakes. I suspect D's will be helping the little tranny guy...
298
LeonDurham
2018 Oct 12, 5:23pm
TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
So when I say that 538 never said anything like what you posted, you counter with quotes from:
Huffpost,and NYT?
Typical disingenuous Trump cultist response.
LeonDurham saysUh--wtf are you talking about? That example has no resemblance to anything 538 every said.
Official NYT Prediction: "only 93%" chance to win two weeks before the election.
So when I say that 538 never said anything like what you posted, you counter with quotes from:
Huffpost,and NYT?
Typical disingenuous Trump cultist response.
299
Patrick
2018 Oct 12, 6:31pm
Patrick
2018 Oct 12, 6:31pm
I like this wager book idea, though I have to think about the legal issues and payment issues.
300
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Oct 12, 6:42pm
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Oct 12, 6:42pm
LeonDurham says
And nate silver himself. Go back and read. I even included a link.
So when I say that 538 never said anything like what you posted, you counter with quotes from:
Huffpost,and NYT?
Typical disingenuous Trump cultist response.
And nate silver himself. Go back and read. I even included a link.
301
LeonDurham
2018 Oct 12, 7:48pm
TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
70 doesn't equal 99. Hopefully you know that.
Basically he said 1 out of every 3 times, Trump will win. Not exactly a huge upset.
And nate silver himself. Go back and read. I even included a link.
70 doesn't equal 99. Hopefully you know that.
Basically he said 1 out of every 3 times, Trump will win. Not exactly a huge upset.
302
marcus
2018 Oct 12, 9:03pm
marcus
2018 Oct 12, 9:03pm
Goran_K says
I'd rather just let the outcome change your mind.
If you're in the Trump cuck bubble, then you might think Trump is the cat's pajamas. (age appropriate expression for Trump lovers).
But we know that Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 and a lot of non republicans hate Trump, and are smart enough to know that just becasue a tax cut, mostly to corporations and the wealthy has stimulated the economy, doesn't mean that all the people angry about this moronic asshole being President are changing their minds.
I'm looking for at least the house turning over big time. THe Senate would be tough. but it's like a 20% shot or so. Similar to Trump's apparent chances when we were this far out in 2016.
We'll see.
There will be no "Blue Wave", change my mind!
I'd rather just let the outcome change your mind.
If you're in the Trump cuck bubble, then you might think Trump is the cat's pajamas. (age appropriate expression for Trump lovers).
But we know that Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 and a lot of non republicans hate Trump, and are smart enough to know that just becasue a tax cut, mostly to corporations and the wealthy has stimulated the economy, doesn't mean that all the people angry about this moronic asshole being President are changing their minds.
I'm looking for at least the house turning over big time. THe Senate would be tough. but it's like a 20% shot or so. Similar to Trump's apparent chances when we were this far out in 2016.
We'll see.
« First « Previous Comments 263 - 302 of 699 Next » Last » Search these comments
Yesterday former Bill Clinton advisor Dick Morris told radio host on New York's AM 970 that he believes the "blue wave" that Democrats are expecting to give them back the Senate and House will not materialize, and polling has backed him up.
Last week, CNN's mid term poll showed that Democrats only had a 3 point advantage, well within the margin of error, and considering that CNN is known for "oversampling" Democrats in its own polls, this is troubling for the DNC.
Additionally, a recent poll from Reuters (left leaning) has shown that Millennials are leaving the Democrat party in droves. Democrat membership in the 18-34 demographic (the bread and butter of the DNC) dropped 9% over the past 2 years, most of them becoming "independents".
"I think that [Democrats] see fool’s gold in these scandals," Morris said. "They’re putting everything behind the Stormy Daniels scandal and Michael Cohen … and the country doesn’t give a damn."
That's when Morris dropped his prediction.
"There is no blue wave coming," Morris exclaimed. "There is a red wave. And what makes it red is the blood of the Democratic Party."
Here's my official take. I believe the GOP will LOSE seats in the house but will not give it up to the DNC. I believe the GOP will GAIN seats in the senate, keeping their majority. This will mean that Trump will have both houses of congress for his entire term.