patrick.net

So asking if pointing out hypocrisy is against the rules is itself against the rules?

There are 6 seats in CA that have a solid potential ( based on polling and $ spent) to flip REP to DEM.

Nevada has been going apeshit registering Illegals. Good Old Boy Developers in Las Vegas are busing their illegal employees to the poling stations in droves.

What data are they cherry picking? How the Blue Wave has already lost any chance of retaking the Senate and even Democrats are admitting to that?

The excuses are coming out already.

What will be the Democrat's excuse if they fail to take the Senate and the Republicans even pick up a few Senate seats?

There is no excuse. Dems never had a chance in the senate. I don't think anyone said otherwise.

This is the biggest indicator that Republicans know they are going to lose--when they start bringing up the illegal voting nonsense..

I'm in one of those districts with Darrell Issa's open seat. The Democrat Levin is beating Harkey by 10+ points in the polls.

Nate Silver is really smoking the funny stuff.

There is very little polling for most House races, and usually godawful small sample sizes. National Polls are totally useless in these district races.

Like I said, is Generic Poll +17 D gonna flip WV Blue? Probably not.

Generic Polling is meaningless, it doesn't matter if more Libbies in Brooklyn or Downtown LA come out, 30% higher. They still are all voting in the same heavily, permablue district.

And I don't see any +17D. It's 7.5D, and much of that is your urban, already Deep Blue, districts.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/413681-dems-lead-gop-by-17-points-on-generic-ballot

Real Clear's average of polls has it at 7.5D.

Using the Trump Filter, since working class HS Grads are less able sit at desks or work in home offices taking a half hour phone survey, but are too busy welding and roofing, and the Trump Shame Effect, I'd say it's +2.5D. Across the whole countr

I expect the Dems to flip a few seats. But more Amanda Marcottes coming out in an already Deep Dark Blue Brooklyn District, doesn't mean you'll see the same effect or to the same extent in PA-17.

It's funny how the Trump supporters believe Nate when he talks about the Senate,

The generic ballot is probably the most important poll there is. It affects every race across the country. Obviously some more than others, but it's not a local effect.

Lol, this is as stupid as a statement gets. NS's comments are irrelevant, they have no sway in either direction (or they shouldnt).

Polls, in general, are best at showing change rather than absolute levels of support.

This is far more relevant when the models change, like they did w Trump. The rules are all different. It would be difficult to impossible to set up anyaccurate poll in this environment. Add in the fact that these polls are basically just propaganda to show how unpopular wrong thinkers are, and these polls are total garbage.

It was well within normal polling error.

Right...

Perhaps the problem is a lack of understanding of the meaning.

lol @ the Trump filter. It's no use going over the facts of polling again. Trump supporters can and do believe whatever they want regardless of what the data says.

No you are missing boorish critique. You suggest it is hypocrisy to agree w nate on some predictions and not agree on others. This is as illogical as an observation gets.

The generic ballot is probably the most important poll there is. It affects every race across the country. Obviously some more than others, but it's not a local effect.

Someone who touts the model when it says what they want it to say but then calls the model nonsense when it says the opposite of what they want is absolutely hypocrisy.

Like I said, NS is irrelevant more so than just being wrong.