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There will be no "Blue Wave", change my mind!
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2018 May 14, 8:51am 79,695 views 699 comments
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528
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Nov 4, 11:18pm
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Nov 4, 11:18pm
My almost final prediction:
The Congress:
Democrats: Gain of less than 20 seats, probably around 15-18. The vast majority of these will be in states that are already leaning/solid blue
Republicans: Gain at least 2 Senate Seats
Specific Predictions:
DeSantis becomes Governor of Florida
Sinema fails to gain Arizona and she loses by more than 2%.
Shock of the Election: NJ5 and one MN seat goes Red by a Hair
The Congress:
Democrats: Gain of less than 20 seats, probably around 15-18. The vast majority of these will be in states that are already leaning/solid blue
Republicans: Gain at least 2 Senate Seats
Specific Predictions:
DeSantis becomes Governor of Florida
Sinema fails to gain Arizona and she loses by more than 2%.
Shock of the Election: NJ5 and one MN seat goes Red by a Hair
529
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Nov 5, 12:31pm
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Nov 5, 12:31pm
MegaForce says
Those are Registered Republicans vs. Registered Democrat votes.
Election officials are allowed to open and read ballots before Tuesday? Thought that violates federal law.
Those are Registered Republicans vs. Registered Democrat votes.
531
Goran_K
2018 Nov 5, 2:00pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 5, 2:00pm
My prediction.
GOP gains 4 senate seats giving 55 vs 45 senate split favoring GOP.
I'm predicting a 15 seat loss in the house for the GOP, lessening advantage but still maintaining control. Thought GOP would likely lose control of the house, but early voting numbers in the battleground states shows early voting advantage for the GOP. Blue states will probably get more blue though.
GOP gains 4 senate seats giving 55 vs 45 senate split favoring GOP.
I'm predicting a 15 seat loss in the house for the GOP, lessening advantage but still maintaining control. Thought GOP would likely lose control of the house, but early voting numbers in the battleground states shows early voting advantage for the GOP. Blue states will probably get more blue though.
532
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Nov 5, 3:10pm
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Nov 5, 3:10pm
Dem's Nevada Early Voting lead cut by well over half from 2016.
Republicans love to vote on Election Day, so let's see what happens. One thing is for sure, it seems the Dems have not created an enthusiasm gap.
Final NV early vote #s, after a few more red counties came in, Ds lead 21,559
This is massively down from 47,000 they led by in 2016.
This is right on the cusp of what we have predicted Heller needed to win on election day, so this will be a close one.— Larry Schweikart (@LarrySchweikart) November 5, 2018
Republicans love to vote on Election Day, so let's see what happens. One thing is for sure, it seems the Dems have not created an enthusiasm gap.
535
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Nov 5, 11:38pm
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Nov 5, 11:38pm
This is probably nothing, but I was sitting on the John and I thought "Independent Voters".
Remember the Media used to talk endlessly about Indy voters, how they would break, etc.?
"we stood outside the early voting station and asked some indy voters what they thought..."
Haven't heard shit about them this election. It's like 15% of the Electorate Disappeared.
With 41/42 Dem/Rep early voting split, you'd think it would be nothing but Independents.
Remember the Media used to talk endlessly about Indy voters, how they would break, etc.?
"we stood outside the early voting station and asked some indy voters what they thought..."
Haven't heard shit about them this election. It's like 15% of the Electorate Disappeared.
With 41/42 Dem/Rep early voting split, you'd think it would be nothing but Independents.
538
mell
2018 Nov 6, 7:35am
Tim Aurora says
There's no way to know as of now where the house goes. 50/50
Goran_K saysHere's my official take. I believe the GOP will LOSE seats in the house but will not give it up to the DNC. I believe the GOP will GAIN seats in the senate, keeping their majority. This will mean that Trump will have both houses of congress for his entire term.
The house is now going to be Dems. Senate was a long shot due to the number of democratic seats up for election but Dems will gain in the governor's race
There's no way to know as of now where the house goes. 50/50
541
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Nov 6, 10:56am
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Nov 6, 10:56am
Tim Aurora says
That's not what I'm getting at.
Nationally, it's a 41-42% D/R split. So what about the other 17%? Most of the those are independents.
The Media typically is badgering people who claim to be independent, yet this time it's like they don't care. We KNOW it's a partisan election, so what really matters is how the 17% will break.
Yet reporters haven't seemed to have pestered, and pundits haven't pontificated, on how they are voting.
It's all been married women, suburbanites, etc.
It's odd.
TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce saysHaven't heard shit about them this election. It's like 15% of the Electorate Disappeared.
They did. I became Democratic, Goran a Republican, That is what Trump has done.
That's not what I'm getting at.
Nationally, it's a 41-42% D/R split. So what about the other 17%? Most of the those are independents.
The Media typically is badgering people who claim to be independent, yet this time it's like they don't care. We KNOW it's a partisan election, so what really matters is how the 17% will break.
Yet reporters haven't seemed to have pestered, and pundits haven't pontificated, on how they are voting.
It's all been married women, suburbanites, etc.
It's odd.
548
zzyzzx
2018 Nov 6, 12:20pm
zzyzzx
2018 Nov 6, 12:20pm
Orange Cat Good!
Cats are naturally Republican:
They love freedom.
They enforce borders.
They hunt for themselves.
They cover their poop.
They have dignity.
Cats are naturally Republican:
They love freedom.
They enforce borders.
They hunt for themselves.
They cover their poop.
They have dignity.
554
Rin
2018 Nov 6, 2:27pm
Rin
2018 Nov 6, 2:27pm
TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
Hillary needs Rin, as her campaign manager ...
Strap-On Hilly, Sassy, Titty, and a whole lot of fun!
zzyzzx says
Saving this for later tonight.
Hillary needs Rin, as her campaign manager ...
Strap-On Hilly, Sassy, Titty, and a whole lot of fun!
556
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Nov 6, 4:13pm
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Nov 6, 4:13pm
Only blue on the map so far is two uncontested Dem seats, one in Georgia and one in Virginia.
Every single seat so far that's posting in the parts of Indiana/Kentucky are trending red by a good margin.
Of the four dark reds, one is an uncontested, the other three are already so much Republican they're unlikely to be close at all.
Every single seat so far that's posting in the parts of Indiana/Kentucky are trending red by a good margin.
Of the four dark reds, one is an uncontested, the other three are already so much Republican they're unlikely to be close at all.
557
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Nov 6, 4:18pm
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Nov 6, 4:18pm
Cook Report had FL-16 listed as "Competitive" and FL-26 as "Toss Up"
Currently, the GOP candidate is leading by about 14 pts in FL-16 and by about 6 pts in FL-26.
Only a handful of precincts reporting.
Currently, the GOP candidate is leading by about 14 pts in FL-16 and by about 6 pts in FL-26.
Only a handful of precincts reporting.
561
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 7:23pm
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 7:23pm
Goran_K says
I don't know. You tell me. If democrats pick up well over 30 seats in the house, is it a blue wave or not ?
I reckon it depends on how you define blue wave.
There will be no "Blue Wave", change my mind!
I don't know. You tell me. If democrats pick up well over 30 seats in the house, is it a blue wave or not ?
I reckon it depends on how you define blue wave.
562
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 7:24pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 7:24pm
marcus says
I’d say that is in line with expectations. Incumbents have only held the house 4 times in history. Last time it happened was 2002 (16 years ago).
But if they don’t hold the house, what do you call it?
Goran_K saysThere will be no "Blue Wave", change my mind!
I don't know. You tell me. If democrats pick up well over 30 seats in the house, is it a blue wave or not ?
I reckon it depends on how you define blue wave.
I’d say that is in line with expectations. Incumbents have only held the house 4 times in history. Last time it happened was 2002 (16 years ago).
But if they don’t hold the house, what do you call it?
563
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 7:28pm
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 7:28pm
Goran_K says
I guess at present I'd call it something that has about a 1 in 8 chance of happening.
But if they don’t hold the house, what do you call it?
I guess at present I'd call it something that has about a 1 in 8 chance of happening.
564
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 7:30pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 7:30pm
marcus says
Dems lost 5 senate seats (I predicted 4). Is that a blue wave?
Goran_K saysBut if they don’t hold the house, what do you call it?
I guess at present I'd call it something that has about a 1 in 8 chance of happening.
Dems lost 5 senate seats (I predicted 4). Is that a blue wave?
565
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 7:31pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 7:31pm
It’s almost certain that Ginsburgs seat will be filled by a conservative.
567
socal2
2018 Nov 6, 7:37pm
marcus says
Republicans picked up 63 House seats and 6 Senate seats in 2010.
Looks like:
Democrats will pick up 30 House seats and Lose 4-5 Senate seats in 2018.
What does that look like to you?
don't know. You tell me. If democrats pick up well over 30 seats in the house, is it a blue wave or not ?
Republicans picked up 63 House seats and 6 Senate seats in 2010.
Looks like:
Democrats will pick up 30 House seats and Lose 4-5 Senate seats in 2018.
What does that look like to you?
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Yesterday former Bill Clinton advisor Dick Morris told radio host on New York's AM 970 that he believes the "blue wave" that Democrats are expecting to give them back the Senate and House will not materialize, and polling has backed him up.
Last week, CNN's mid term poll showed that Democrats only had a 3 point advantage, well within the margin of error, and considering that CNN is known for "oversampling" Democrats in its own polls, this is troubling for the DNC.
Additionally, a recent poll from Reuters (left leaning) has shown that Millennials are leaving the Democrat party in droves. Democrat membership in the 18-34 demographic (the bread and butter of the DNC) dropped 9% over the past 2 years, most of them becoming "independents".
"I think that [Democrats] see fool’s gold in these scandals," Morris said. "They’re putting everything behind the Stormy Daniels scandal and Michael Cohen … and the country doesn’t give a damn."
That's when Morris dropped his prediction.
"There is no blue wave coming," Morris exclaimed. "There is a red wave. And what makes it red is the blood of the Democratic Party."
Here's my official take. I believe the GOP will LOSE seats in the house but will not give it up to the DNC. I believe the GOP will GAIN seats in the senate, keeping their majority. This will mean that Trump will have both houses of congress for his entire term.