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There will be no "Blue Wave", change my mind!


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2018 May 14, 8:51am   76,739 views  699 comments

by Goran_K   ➕follow (4)   💰tip   ignore  



Yesterday former Bill Clinton advisor Dick Morris told radio host on New York's AM 970 that he believes the "blue wave" that Democrats are expecting to give them back the Senate and House will not materialize, and polling has backed him up.

Last week, CNN's mid term poll showed that Democrats only had a 3 point advantage, well within the margin of error, and considering that CNN is known for "oversampling" Democrats in its own polls, this is troubling for the DNC.

Additionally, a recent poll from Reuters (left leaning) has shown that Millennials are leaving the Democrat party in droves. Democrat membership in the 18-34 demographic (the bread and butter of the DNC) dropped 9% over the past 2 years, most of them becoming "independents".

"I think that [Democrats] see fool’s gold in these scandals," Morris said. "They’re putting everything behind the Stormy Daniels scandal and Michael Cohen … and the country doesn’t give a damn."

That's when Morris dropped his prediction.

"There is no blue wave coming," Morris exclaimed. "There is a red wave. And what makes it red is the blood of the Democratic Party."

Here's my official take. I believe the GOP will LOSE seats in the house but will not give it up to the DNC. I believe the GOP will GAIN seats in the senate, keeping their majority. This will mean that Trump will have both houses of congress for his entire term.

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522   Booger   2018 Nov 3, 7:33pm  

What part of red wave don't Democrats understand?

523   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Nov 3, 7:42pm  

Republican Lead in Florida, after yet another entire day of weekend early voting... remains about 58,000, unchanged
527   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Nov 4, 4:49pm  

After the entire weekend of early voting in Swing State Florida, the Republicans are still up ~40,000 votes in early/mail voting. Naturally, Mail isn't delivered on Sunday.

Today was also the last day for Early Voting, it will be closed tomorrow (Monday). Mail-in ballots can continue to be received and counted, even after Election Day, so long as postmarked before November 6th.

So we should see the Mail in ballots that favor Republicans increase tomorrow and going forward.

Absolutely NO signs that Republicans are disgruntled or that Democrats are particularly enthusiastic.

Only two more days until Election Day.
528   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Nov 4, 11:18pm  

My almost final prediction:

The Congress:
Democrats: Gain of less than 20 seats, probably around 15-18. The vast majority of these will be in states that are already leaning/solid blue
Republicans: Gain at least 2 Senate Seats

Specific Predictions:
DeSantis becomes Governor of Florida
Sinema fails to gain Arizona and she loses by more than 2%.

Shock of the Election: NJ5 and one MN seat goes Red by a Hair
529   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Nov 5, 12:31pm  

MegaForce says
Election officials are allowed to open and read ballots before Tuesday? Thought that violates federal law.



Those are Registered Republicans vs. Registered Democrat votes.
531   Goran_K   2018 Nov 5, 2:00pm  

My prediction.

GOP gains 4 senate seats giving 55 vs 45 senate split favoring GOP.

I'm predicting a 15 seat loss in the house for the GOP, lessening advantage but still maintaining control. Thought GOP would likely lose control of the house, but early voting numbers in the battleground states shows early voting advantage for the GOP. Blue states will probably get more blue though.
532   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Nov 5, 3:10pm  

Dem's Nevada Early Voting lead cut by well over half from 2016.


Final NV early vote #s, after a few more red counties came in, Ds lead 21,559
This is massively down from 47,000 they led by in 2016.

This is right on the cusp of what we have predicted Heller needed to win on election day, so this will be a close one.— Larry Schweikart (@LarrySchweikart) November 5, 2018



Republicans love to vote on Election Day, so let's see what happens. One thing is for sure, it seems the Dems have not created an enthusiasm gap.
534   mell   2018 Nov 5, 3:37pm  

Booger says

Lol pepe and npc combined!
535   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Nov 5, 11:38pm  

This is probably nothing, but I was sitting on the John and I thought "Independent Voters".

Remember the Media used to talk endlessly about Indy voters, how they would break, etc.?

"we stood outside the early voting station and asked some indy voters what they thought..."

Haven't heard shit about them this election. It's like 15% of the Electorate Disappeared.

With 41/42 Dem/Rep early voting split, you'd think it would be nothing but Independents.
536   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Nov 5, 11:43pm  

For posterity:



537   RWSGFY   2018 Nov 6, 7:18am  

Booger says


Save the kittens!
538   mell   2018 Nov 6, 7:35am  

Tim Aurora says
Goran_K says
Here's my official take. I believe the GOP will LOSE seats in the house but will not give it up to the DNC. I believe the GOP will GAIN seats in the senate, keeping their majority. This will mean that Trump will have both houses of congress for his entire term.


The house is now going to be Dems. Senate was a long shot due to the number of democratic seats up for election but Dems will gain in the governor's race



There's no way to know as of now where the house goes. 50/50
541   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Nov 6, 10:56am  

Tim Aurora says
TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
Haven't heard shit about them this election. It's like 15% of the Electorate Disappeared.



They did. I became Democratic, Goran a Republican, That is what Trump has done.


That's not what I'm getting at.

Nationally, it's a 41-42% D/R split. So what about the other 17%? Most of the those are independents.

The Media typically is badgering people who claim to be independent, yet this time it's like they don't care. We KNOW it's a partisan election, so what really matters is how the 17% will break.

Yet reporters haven't seemed to have pestered, and pundits haven't pontificated, on how they are voting.

It's all been married women, suburbanites, etc.

It's odd.
548   zzyzzx   2018 Nov 6, 12:20pm  

Orange Cat Good!


Cats are naturally Republican:

They love freedom.
They enforce borders.
They hunt for themselves.
They cover their poop.
They have dignity.
551   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Nov 6, 1:32pm  

zzyzzx says


Saving this for later tonight.
554   Rin   2018 Nov 6, 2:27pm  

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
zzyzzx says


Saving this for later tonight.


Hillary needs Rin, as her campaign manager ...



Strap-On Hilly, Sassy, Titty, and a whole lot of fun!
556   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Nov 6, 4:13pm  

Only blue on the map so far is two uncontested Dem seats, one in Georgia and one in Virginia.

Every single seat so far that's posting in the parts of Indiana/Kentucky are trending red by a good margin.

Of the four dark reds, one is an uncontested, the other three are already so much Republican they're unlikely to be close at all.

557   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Nov 6, 4:18pm  

Cook Report had FL-16 listed as "Competitive" and FL-26 as "Toss Up"

Currently, the GOP candidate is leading by about 14 pts in FL-16 and by about 6 pts in FL-26.

Only a handful of precincts reporting.
558   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 6:41pm  

I haven’t been keeping up. Is everything called?
560   just_passing_through   2018 Nov 6, 7:22pm  

The blue wave was in Guam. True story!
561   marcus   2018 Nov 6, 7:23pm  

Goran_K says
There will be no "Blue Wave", change my mind!


I don't know. You tell me. If democrats pick up well over 30 seats in the house, is it a blue wave or not ?

I reckon it depends on how you define blue wave.

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