patrick.net

Someone aid to me: "Conservatives just get the message: show up, vote, and go home. It gets the job done."

Trends NOT looking good for Dems.

Less than 24 hours ago, it stood at 43% Rep to 41% Dem registered votes casting Early/Mail In ballots.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/24-million-early-voting-ballots-already-counted-more-2014-n929421

Does this look like there is a problem with enthusiasm, that the Republican Voters are all depressed and staying home?


As for "Our Models are based on History"


It looks a lot like 2014.

What happened in 2014? The Republicans gained 13 seats in the House and took back the Senate.

My Prediction:

Dems win a few toss up seats, maybe a surprise or two, but don't pickup more 20 seats in the House and probably less. I call low teens, mostly in states already largely blue like California perhaps the odd urban area in a Red State

The Dems that do win win by a hair and have to be very careful in the next couple of years. 1-2% winners can't be all "Impeach! Abolish ICE!"

Republicans win at least 2 Senate Seats.

The Dems are trying are Left instead of Centrist strategy in Arizona and Florida by running Sinema and Gillum. Their defeat will also empower normies and hurt the SJWs.

The increasing dependence on Dems for Urban Minorities and SFBA/Brooklyn/Boston Snobs will continue to hurt the party in the long run as the won't be able to Play to Peoria. Anything less than blaming Whites and Males will be seen as traitorous.

After being sick today and trolling around the rest of the internet, I find articles by the MSM to be blatantly insulting. I also see that not only am I not the only one that sees it this way, but judging by online comments, so do a whole bunch of people including moderate and former liberal democrats.

Not sure my read is super correct, but I'd say do not be surprised if the polls are dead wrong, and the Republicans hold both the house and senate.

CovfefeButDeadly says

I find articles by the MSM to be blatantly insulting.

Like this one: Nationalism is the Breaking Point for Suburban Voters.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump%E2%80%99s-nationalism-is-breaking-point-for-some-suburban-voters-risking-gop-coalition/ar-BBPergt?li=BBnbfcP

I can't be the only one over 30 that learned the actual dictionary definition of Nationalism in School? If so, I seriously doubt "Nationalism" is a breaking point for anybody but a far leftist, or somebody freshly indoctrinated in College.

I actually thought the GOP would lose the house and voiced my concerns about historic trends.

But the early voting shows the GOP base is fired up. If the GOP keeps the house we should all send money to Feinstein for her next re-election campaign. Maybe some thank you letters to Liawatha Warren.

I have just added my energy to the red wave.

Why wouldn't there be a red wave?

Do most working American's (of any race) want unfettered illegal immigration to push down wages?

Do most American men want a society where any man can be accused at any time of sexual misconduct? We are not talking about actual victims or rape here, we are talking about a bar so low that a women touched on top of clothes is now a "survivor." Real women used to deal with an overly forward guy with a stern "hands off!" or a face slap. Virtually all men have in their youth have been in the situation where they slid a hand under a blouse during a necking session, only to have the girl pull your hand out, but continue to to neck anyway. Is this girl now a "survivor," since she did not want to go that far yet, and 10 years later she can testify against you for being a groper?

Do women want their men and male children to be subject to this new "misconduct" threat? Or for men to be come so passive that the only way she will be fondled is the grab his hand and place it on her boob?

HeadSet says

Virtually all men have in their youth have been in the situation where they slid a hand under a blouse during a necking session, only to have the girl pull your hand out, but continue to to neck anyway. Is this girl now a "survivor," since she did not want to go that far yet, and 10 years later she can testify against you for being a groper?

A drunk woman grabbed my ass in a hotel a few years ago. Instead of just calmly informing her that I am not interested, I should have sued hotel, created organizations such as Hands Off My Ass, and started #myasstoo campaign on twatter.

Aphroman says

Which Republicans are running on a platform different from Democrats wrt how society treats sexual activity?

Pussyhat and #metoo nonsense comes from D's

Voted R straight down the Ticket, from Governor to Senate to House/

And the County Commissioners are all Ds and the biggest sneaks ever. They wanted to give the Ethics Inspector "Discretion" to choose what cases to investigate instead of having to investigate everything.

“As of Wednesday, 43 percent of early voters are Republican and 41 percent are Democrats. ”
In 2014 (a banner year for the GOP), early voting was at 44% Republicans and 40% Democrats.
In 2016 where the Democrats picked up some seats, they were ahead in early voting 43%D to 40%R. But Trump still won!

But this is looking a lot closer to 2014 than 2016. Red Tsunami folks!

Republicans still have a 58,000+ lead in Florida among early/mail voters.

Also a slight lead in AZ

I hear the lead in TN and some other states is off the charts.

Which Republicans are running on a platform different from Democrats wrt how society treats sexual activity?

You have got to be joking. After seeing the audience given by Democrat Senators to the absurd Ford accusations, you cannot realistically believe what you wrote.

dr6B says

Aphroman says

Which Republicans are running on a platform different from Democrats wrt how society treats sexual activity?

Pussyhat and #metoo nonsense comes from D's

The dear colleague letter title nine kangaroo courts are a product of the dems.

All the believe the accuser idiocy is destroying lives of youths w no power to fight back.

What part of red wave don't Democrats understand?

Republican Lead in Florida, after yet another entire day of weekend early voting... remains about 58,000, unchanged

After the entire weekend of early voting in Swing State Florida, the Republicans are still up ~40,000 votes in early/mail voting. Naturally, Mail isn't delivered on Sunday.

Today was also the last day for Early Voting, it will be closed tomorrow (Monday). Mail-in ballots can continue to be received and counted, even after Election Day, so long as postmarked before November 6th.

So we should see the Mail in ballots that favor Republicans increase tomorrow and going forward.

Absolutely NO signs that Republicans are disgruntled or that Democrats are particularly enthusiastic.

Only two more days until Election Day.

My almost final prediction:

The Congress:
Democrats: Gain of less than 20 seats, probably around 15-18. The vast majority of these will be in states that are already leaning/solid blue
Republicans: Gain at least 2 Senate Seats

Specific Predictions:
DeSantis becomes Governor of Florida
Sinema fails to gain Arizona and she loses by more than 2%.

Shock of the Election: NJ5 and one MN seat goes Red by a Hair

MegaForce says

Election officials are allowed to open and read ballots before Tuesday? Thought that violates federal law.

Those are Registered Republicans vs. Registered Democrat votes.

My prediction.

GOP gains 4 senate seats giving 55 vs 45 senate split favoring GOP.

I'm predicting a 15 seat loss in the house for the GOP, lessening advantage but still maintaining control. Thought GOP would likely lose control of the house, but early voting numbers in the battleground states shows early voting advantage for the GOP. Blue states will probably get more blue though.

Dem's Nevada Early Voting lead cut by well over half from 2016.

Final NV early vote #s, after a few more red counties came in, Ds lead 21,559
This is massively down from 47,000 they led by in 2016.

This is right on the cusp of what we have predicted Heller needed to win on election day, so this will be a close one.— Larry Schweikart (@LarrySchweikart) November 5, 2018

Republicans love to vote on Election Day, so let's see what happens. One thing is for sure, it seems the Dems have not created an enthusiasm gap.

Booger says

Lol pepe and npc combined!

This is probably nothing, but I was sitting on the John and I thought "Independent Voters".

Remember the Media used to talk endlessly about Indy voters, how they would break, etc.?

"we stood outside the early voting station and asked some indy voters what they thought..."

Haven't heard shit about them this election. It's like 15% of the Electorate Disappeared.

With 41/42 Dem/Rep early voting split, you'd think it would be nothing but Independents.

For posterity:

Booger says

Save the kittens!

Tim Aurora says

Goran_K says

Here's my official take. I believe the GOP will LOSE seats in the house but will not give it up to the DNC. I believe the GOP will GAIN seats in the senate, keeping their majority. This will mean that Trump will have both houses of congress for his entire term.

The house is now going to be Dems. Senate was a long shot due to the number of democratic seats up for election but Dems will gain in the governor's race

There's no way to know as of now where the house goes. 50/50

Tim Aurora says

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

Haven't heard shit about them this election. It's like 15% of the Electorate Disappeared.

They did. I became Democratic, Goran a Republican, That is what Trump has done.

That's not what I'm getting at.

Nationally, it's a 41-42% D/R split. So what about the other 17%? Most of the those are independents.

The Media typically is badgering people who claim to be independent, yet this time it's like they don't care. We KNOW it's a partisan election, so what really matters is how the 17% will break.

Yet reporters haven't seemed to have pestered, and pundits haven't pontificated, on how they are voting.

It's all been married women, suburbanites, etc.

It's odd.