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There will be no "Blue Wave", change my mind!


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2018 May 14, 8:51am   79,566 views  699 comments

by Goran_K   ➕follow (4)   💰tip   ignore  



Yesterday former Bill Clinton advisor Dick Morris told radio host on New York's AM 970 that he believes the "blue wave" that Democrats are expecting to give them back the Senate and House will not materialize, and polling has backed him up.

Last week, CNN's mid term poll showed that Democrats only had a 3 point advantage, well within the margin of error, and considering that CNN is known for "oversampling" Democrats in its own polls, this is troubling for the DNC.

Additionally, a recent poll from Reuters (left leaning) has shown that Millennials are leaving the Democrat party in droves. Democrat membership in the 18-34 demographic (the bread and butter of the DNC) dropped 9% over the past 2 years, most of them becoming "independents".

"I think that [Democrats] see fool’s gold in these scandals," Morris said. "They’re putting everything behind the Stormy Daniels scandal and Michael Cohen … and the country doesn’t give a damn."

That's when Morris dropped his prediction.

"There is no blue wave coming," Morris exclaimed. "There is a red wave. And what makes it red is the blood of the Democratic Party."

Here's my official take. I believe the GOP will LOSE seats in the house but will not give it up to the DNC. I believe the GOP will GAIN seats in the senate, keeping their majority. This will mean that Trump will have both houses of congress for his entire term.

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588   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 8:22pm  

marcus says
Nate just now said that anything from 25 to 45 would not be crazy out of line (their average guess is now 33). All along he's understood the possibilities far better than you (or I).


How many senate seats did he predict Dems would lose?
590   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 8:29pm  

The majority of felons in the United States are Democrats.
591   marcus   2018 Nov 6, 8:30pm  

Goran_K says
How many senate seats did he predict Dems would lose?


He didn't predict. That's what you don't seem to understand. But he had the average implied change to be + .5

Here. Look at this. That's where he was this morning.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/

This is based on polls.

He said 80% chance it's between +2 for democrats and +4 for republicans.
592   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 8:32pm  

marcus says
Goran_K says
How many senate seats did he predict Dems would lose?


He didn't predict. That's what you don't seem to understand. But he had the average implied change to be + .5

Here. Look at this. That's where he was this morning.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/

This is based on polls.


That is pretty accurate. But I think the fifth senate seat is coming.
593   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Nov 6, 8:35pm  

marcus says
Nate just now said


Only care what he said before today. Like I said, adjusting a model as the test of the model is ongoing is not a vindication of the model.

Also, Nate did not predict 4 and maybe 5, Huge Extra Protein Shake Gains of Doom! in the Senate
594   marcus   2018 Nov 6, 8:35pm  

Goran_K says
That is pretty accurate. But I think the fifth senate seat is coming.


Why is 538 still saying +3.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/?ex_cid=extra_banner

I have to assume they are more on top of this than you or I.

Perhaps west coast ?
595   curious2   2018 Nov 6, 8:36pm  

Goran_K says
The majority of felons in the United States are Democrats.


Among convicted felons, that might be true, and Florida has decided to add more than a million to the list of eligible voters. In 2016, President Trump carried FL by 100k votes, out of 9 million total. If a million more Democrats can vote starting in 2020, then that might tip the balance towards Democrats for statewide and federal offices.
596   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 8:41pm  

marcus says
Goran_K says
That is pretty accurate. But I think the fifth senate seat is coming.


Why is 538 still saying +3.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/?ex_cid=extra_banner

I have to assume they are more on top of this than you or I.

Perhaps west coast ?


Uh because they’re wrong?
597   marcus   2018 Nov 6, 8:42pm  

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
Also, Nate did not predict 4 and maybe 5


Correct even now he's not predicting that. Although as you say, at this point it's not predicting (unless it's you or Goran).
598   marcus   2018 Nov 6, 8:44pm  

Goran_K says
Uh because they’re wrong?


What do you say we make a $100 bet. If it's 3 I win, if it's 5 you win, and 4 is a wash.

You're sure it's not 3 right ?
599   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 8:53pm  

Pmarcus says
Goran_K says
Uh because they’re wrong?


What do you say we make a $100 bet. If it's 3 I win, if it's 5 you win, and 4 is a wash.

You're sure it's not 3 right ?


Yes positive it’s NOT 3. I’ll bet $1,000 it’s not 3.

Bet confirmed?
600   marcus   2018 Nov 6, 8:56pm  

Goran_K says
Yes positive it’s NOT 3. I’ll bet $1,000 it’s not 3.


Are you going to delete this is it is 3 ? Just wondering, becasue you are a republican. It seems kind of like something you might do.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not betting that is is three, but I will do the bet I said for $100. 3 I win, 5 you win, 4 neither of us win.
601   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 8:59pm  

Imarcus says
Goran_K says
Yes positive it’s NOT 3. I’ll bet $1,000 it’s not 3.


Are you going to delete this is it is 3 ? Just wondering, becasue you are a republican. It seems kind of like something you might do.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not betting that is is three, but I will do the bet I said for $100.


Braun, Scott, Harley, Cramer.

Pay me.

@Patrick
Can we ban Marcus and his IP if he doesn’t pay up?
602   FortWayneAsNancyPelosiHaircut   2018 Nov 6, 8:59pm  

Senate = Republican

House = probably Democratic control, not exactly a wave though. Like a small ripple.
603   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 9:00pm  

Marcus you owe me a cool $1,000. Do you prefer PayPal, Venmo or square cash?

I can accept any.
604   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 9:01pm  

I’ll accept the gentleman’s $100 if you admit you were wrong.
605   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 9:03pm  

Marcus where you at? You owe me money buddy.
606   FortWayneAsNancyPelosiHaircut   2018 Nov 6, 9:04pm  

Goran_K says
I’ll accept the gentleman’s $100 if you admit you were wrong.


did you guys bet money?
607   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 9:06pm  

FortWayneIndiana says
Goran_K says
I’ll accept the gentleman’s $100 if you admit you were wrong.


did you guys bet money?


I bet $1000 that GOP flipped 4 seats (with a 5th coming possibly). Marcus tried to be a bad ass and bet money that it was only 3 and I accepted.

Scott race was called in Florida making it the fourth flip.
608   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 9:06pm  

Marcus you better start getting PayPal ready. I’m not joking.
609   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 9:07pm  

Aphroman says
@Patrick you want to be careful with your site and it’s mods participating in, and facilitating criminal activity


I thought you were pro freedom.
610   marcus   2018 Nov 6, 9:07pm  

I didn't. I gave him an offer that still stands I win $100 if it's 3 or less. He wins $100 if it's 5, and neither of us win if it's 4.

Apparently he's drunk ? I don't know.
611   FortWayneAsNancyPelosiHaircut   2018 Nov 6, 9:07pm  

Goran_K says
FortWayneIndiana says
Goran_K says
I’ll accept the gentleman’s $100 if you admit you were wrong.


did you guys bet money?


I bet $1000 that GOP flipped 4 seats (with a 5th coming possibly). Marcus tried to be a bad ass and bet money that it was only 3 and I accepted.

Scott race was called in Florida making it the fourth flip.


Nice bet
612   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 9:08pm  

Aphroman says
Goran_K says
Marcus where you at? You owe me money buddy.


Where did he confirm the $1000 bet?


He owes me at least $100.

I’m going to donate it to the Nevada GOP.
613   FortWayneAsNancyPelosiHaircut   2018 Nov 6, 9:08pm  

Aphroman says
Goran_K says
Marcus you owe me a cool $1,000. Do you prefer PayPal, Venmo or square cash?

I can accept any.


Is this legal?


Yeah very much so.
614   marcus   2018 Nov 6, 9:09pm  

For a minute I forgot how big of an asshole Goran is.
615   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 9:10pm  

Pmarcus says
I didn't. I gave him an offer that still stands I win $100 if it's 3 or less. He wins $100 if it's 5, and neither of us win if it's 4.

Apparently he's drunk ? I don't know.


lol okay. You bet that it was 3 and asked if I was “sure it wasn’t”.

Now you’re changing the bet.

Okay fine. If it’s 5 flips, you owe me $1000 right? Confirm please.
616   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 9:12pm  

marcus says
For a minute I forgot how big of an asshole Goran is.


lol
617   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 9:15pm  

Marcus? Let’s throw down homie.
618   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 9:16pm  

Okay I accept marcuses modified, changed small time $100 wager. I usually don’t get out of bed for less than $2k but Marcus convinced me. Bet confirmed.
619   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 9:18pm  

Aphroman says
Goran_K says
Aphroman says
Goran_K says
Marcus where you at? You owe me money buddy.


Where did he confirm the $1000 bet?


He owes me at least $100.

I’m going to donate it to the Nevada GOP.


I never saw Marcus confirm any wager

He considered your reputation and wisely asked how he could hold you to the wager because you giving your word isn’t worth much


I could cover $1,000 bets more than 2,000 times. I even proved it to iwog when he came back for a little bit and sent him away from PatNet sulking and crying. It was funny as shit.
620   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 9:19pm  

Aphroman says
FortWayneIndiana says
Aphroman says
Goran_K says
Marcus you owe me a cool $1,000. Do you prefer PayPal, Venmo or square cash?

I can accept any.


Is this legal?


Yeah very much so.


How do you figure?

@Patrick you going to take FortWayneIndiana word that facilitating a wager is very much so legal on your site?


It’s a gentleman’s wager. Don’t worry I won’t hurt Marcus. He’s safe with me.
621   marcus   2018 Nov 6, 9:20pm  

Goran_K says
Now you’re changing the bet.


I have a screen shot of

marcus says
Goran_K says
Uh because they’re wrong?


What do you say we make a $100 bet. If it's 3 I win, if it's 5 you win, and 4 is a wash.

You're sure it's not 3 right ?


I have a screen shot of this comment and the ones that follow.

And for the record I was talking about net gains, not flips, whatever that means. I believe the net gain for Republicans looks like 2 or 3 no ?
622   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Nov 6, 9:20pm  

curious2 says

Are you sure about that?

Besides, Florida voters amended the state constitution today, so the electorate may change significantly by 2020:


I voted against that, it's sad it passed.

I have no problem with non-violent felons voting again. But a robber who uses a gun or knife in a crime ought to have to petition for his voting rights back after showing he's been out of trouble, nose clean for at least 5 years after his sentence ends. Killers should never get their rights back except if they've been Mother Theresa, going beyond the call of civic duty, after release.
623   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Nov 6, 9:20pm  

curious2 says

Are you sure about that?

Besides, Florida voters amended the state constitution today, so the electorate may change significantly by 2020:


I voted against that, it's sad it passed.

I have no problem with non-violent felons voting again. But a robber who uses a gun or knife in a crime ought to have to petition for his voting rights back after showing he's been out of trouble, nose clean for at least 5 years after his sentence ends. Killers should never get their rights back except if they've been Mother Theresa, going beyond the call of civic duty, after release.
624   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 9:21pm  

marcus says
Goran_K says
Now you’re changing the bet.


I have a screen shot of

marcus says
Goran_K says
Uh because they’re wrong?


What do you say we make a $100 bet. If it's 3 I win, if it's 5 you win, and 4 is a wash.

You're sure it's not 3 right ?


I have a screen shot of this comment and the ones that follow.

And for the record I was talking about net gains, not flips, whatever that means. I believe the net gain for Republicans looks like 2 or 3 no ?


What are you talking about? The Dems have not flipped a senate seat yet.
625   marcus   2018 Nov 6, 9:26pm  

IT was 51 - 49

this says it's now 53 - 47 .

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-senate-forecast.html

That's a net gain of 2 seats. What are you talking about ?

What you take the gain for republicans and add it to the loss for democrats to come up with 4 ?

Wtf ?

Republicans will pick up either 2 or 3 seats in the senate, no ?
626   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Nov 6, 9:29pm  

marcus says
That's a net gain of 2 seats. What are you talking about ?



NYT says three, and it hasn't called Florida for some bizarre reason, even though everybody else has. That would be 4.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-senate-elections.html

There's still the potential to pick up Montana, too, which would be 5.

And Arizona, which isn't really a pick up, but Flake was a major NeverTrump PITA, so it's kind of a pickup if Sinema is beaten off.
627   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 9:30pm  

Marcus just pay me my $100. Scott was the 4th flipped seat.

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