patrick.net

FPBT says

Sure sounds like Marcus meant plus

Not only did I say that I meant plus three, it was understood. But a couple of right wingers in this thread didn't even know, that it took republicans flipping three just to keep it at 51 republicans.

Note this back and forth:

Goran_K says

marcus says

Goran_K says

That is pretty accurate. But I think the fifth senate seat is coming.

Why is 538 still saying +3.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/?ex_cid=extra_banner

I have to assume they are more on top of this than you or I.

Perhaps west coast ?

Uh because they’re wrong?

I made it very clear that I was talking about net change. IT is was clear that both Goran and two scoops thought that republican flips meant net increases, when there were other factors at play.

But also he was joking about me owing him $1000. I think.

Actually if we had made that bet, I might still be winning it. But we didn't. The bet that I did offer, I almost surely wouldn't lose (they would have to be net up 5 for me to lose the bet I offered, which he did not accept).

APHAman says

marcus says

But also he was joking about me owing him $1000. I think.

Actually if we had made that bet, I might still be winning it. But we didn't. The bet that I did offer, I almost surely wouldn't lose (they would have to be net up 5 for me to lose the bet I offered, which he did not accept).

It’s odd that people will talk shit for months when it doesn’t mean anything, then when it’s time to get some skin in the game, the cower in the corner hoping mommee will save them. Maybe that’s why they always support Republicans and chide ‘liberals’. They’re happy to lose their freedoms to avoid having any skin in the game.

You two need to stop being so mean

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

For posterity:

So, let's recap. As I tried to tell all of you, Nate was almost perfect. Dems are expected to win 38 seats when all is said and done and votes are done counting in CA.

The RCP polling average is going to be pretty damn close as well with Dems +7 or +7.5

My favorite--GA6 went to Dems this go around. Just needed a better candidate than Ossoff.

And as I tried to tell McGee--Republicans have lost suburban soccer Moms for a long time. Dems consistently won all types of suburban districts.

Typically, the party out of power wins in the midterms because the other party doesn't show up to vote. in 2018, Trump got his base out and they voted. But he has alienated so many former Republicans that they still lost. So there's no reason to think he'll do any better in 2020.

OK-had to come back to gloat. Happy out.

HappyGilmore says

And as I tried to tell McGee--Republicans have lost suburban soccer Moms for a long time. Dems consistently won all types of suburban districts.

Typically, the party out of power wins in the midterms because the other party doesn't show up to vote. in 2018, Trump got his base out and they voted. But he has alienated so many former Republicans that they still lost. So there's no reason to think he'll do any better in 2020.

OK-had to come back to gloat. Happy out.

Hate to say this but you're mostly right here. It was white women who have increased their support for the Dems, otherwise this election would have been another disaster for the blue team. I doubt though that many are soccer moms as even suburbia hasn't been immune to the growing epidemic of lone childless post-wall cat-lady harpies who have ridden the cock carousel just one too many times and now need to express their bitterness by denying happily married women and white men their pursuit of happiness.

The big news is that the wealthy voted Democrat. They want their open borders and the jobs they outsources to reimport back to Middle America they destroyed tariff-free
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/politics/midterm-election-precinct-results/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.0b366a109cac

The party realignment continues. And of course the Cat Ladies came out in force.

Congrats on FINALLY being right about something, though.

TSenate, which will gain even if Broward and PBC manufactures enough ballots and keeps breaking Florida Laws, went far to the Red. That wasn't no Dem+7 result, especially since many were close races and one happened in a Swing State. A reminder that NO POLLSTER consensus predicted a 2-4 Republican Gain. I can't think of a major pollster who did so.

It sure looks like the deciding factor in the Senate was the Kavanaugh vote, which mitigates the Suburban White Woman theory.

But, it's really no biggie, the House was on par with a typical midterm election. The Senate was a bit of a shock.

The fun is the long delayed Democrat Civil War between Trad Libs, SJWs, and Neoliberals. I'm sure 70-something Pelosi will be bringing fresh, undisputed, vibrant leadership.

Also, the strategy was to pump the Senate Races, but not so much the House races. Looks like this was misguided.

And, the Democrats outspent the Republicans again. They were able to do so, despite being almost bust after 2016, because the Wealthy lavished them with donations.

No blue wave occurred. Now dems are trying to stuff ballot box in Florida and Arizona in hopes of cheat winning it.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

The big news is that the wealthy voted Democrat.

False. Educated voted Democrat. There wasn't much correlation between income and voting Dem or Rep.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

It sure looks like the deciding factor in the Senate was the Kavanaugh vote, which mitigates the Suburban White Woman theory.

False again. The issue was the Dem senators were running in extremely Republican states. They overperformed, but Trump was successful in getting out the base in Indiana, Missouri, N. Dakota, etc.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

But, it's really no biggie, the House was on par with a typical midterm election

False yet again. Typically midterms help the party out of power because they are the only voters that turn out. In this case, Trump got his base out. Like I said, the problem was unique to this year in that he alienated so many former Republicans that he lost anyway. And if Dems +7.5 isn't a wave, then what is a wave?

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

Also, the strategy was to pump the Senate Races, but not so much the House races. Looks like this was misguided.

And false again. Dems had a very strong strategy for the House. They recruited good candidates everywhere. They supported them everywhere. They ran on healthcare. It worked.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

And, the Democrats outspent the Republicans again. They were able to do so, despite being almost bust after 2016, because the Wealthy lavished them with donations.

lol--they have a HUGE network of small donors that they depended on. They won because of soccer Moms throughout suburbia--donating and voting for Democrats.

HappyGilmore says

They won because of soccer Moms throughout suburbia--donating and voting for Democrats.

Not according to Vogue

https://www.vogue.com/article/white-women-voters-conservative-trump-gop-problem

PrivilegedtobeWhite says

HappyGilmore says

They won because of soccer Moms throughout suburbia--donating and voting for Democrats.

Not according to Vogue

https://www.vogue.com/article/white-women-voters-conservative-trump-gop-problem

Hush he likes his narrative.

For some perpective-in the senate this si the third time in 100 years the ruling party gained senate seats. See the tally in this article.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/disaster-avoided-trump-is-just-the-third-president-in-104-years-to-gain-senate-seats-in-a-midterm-election-2018-11-07

Repubs are good at soul searching-dems are not-crazytown. now crazy will be on full display and Trump will fight the dems in the house with everything he has. OH now when he gets a real atty general-haha-I think that is why he was waiting to bring it all out these two years.

Liberals can't help themselves-theya re the party of crazy sjws, crazy public sector thugs.

In my state of IL they won a supermajority and so tax increases on top of super high property taxes are what is staring. I think FL-here I come. IL fools will lose my taxes and a flood of other upper middle class folks. Rich people won't matter-they have trusts-us upper middle class folks si who the dmes target-we have nobody to represent us.

It's simple the crazy cat ladies increased but they will naturally eliminate themselves from the gene pool eventually.

mell says

suburbia hasn't been immune to the growing epidemic of lone childless post-wall cat-lady harpies who have ridden the cock carousel just one too many times and now need to express their bitterness by denying happily married women and white men their pursuit of happiness

Feminism has gifted the USA with millions of overaged harpies without marriage prospects who are alone and bitter or with another harpy and still bitter. Most of these aren’t well off, but living paycheck to paycheck with low to middle paying jobs, and their last hope is that the government will swoop in to make their situation better somehow. So they vote Democrat.

Suburban soccer moms might not love them some Trump, but they aren’t willing to share the resources they have scraped together to raise their kids and set up a respectable household with illegal moochers and irresponsible cat ladies. They’re busy trying to live the American Dream, and Democrats keep getting in the way of that.
This divide will only worsen as time goes on.

Tim Aurora says

Yes we earn more than those village folks because we worked hard and smart and are more educated.

I said Wealthy, not well off. Hollywood, Big Tech, etc. have been lavishing money on the Democrats. Tom Steyer, Bloomberg, Soros, and many others.

HappyGilmore says

False. Educated voted Democrat. There wasn't much correlation between income and voting Dem or Rep.

That's funny, Pew just released a report whether you went to an SJW indoctrination Camp did matter, especially if your Gulag major was a non-STEM, SJW-bullshit infused Social Science/Lib Arts program that Women have in greater proportion to males:




http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/11/08/the-2018-midterm-vote-divisions-by-race-gender-education/


HappyGilmore says

False again. The issue was the Dem senators were running in extremely Republican states. They overperformed, but Trump was successful in getting out the base in Indiana, Missouri, N. Dakota, etc.

Scott is in an excessively Red State?

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

That's funny, Pew just released a report whether you went to an SJW indoctrination Camp did matter, especially if your Gulag major was a non-STEM, SJW-bullshit infused Social Science/Lib Arts program that Women have in greater proportion to males:

So you're agreeing that I'm correct again. Level of education matters. Income doesn't.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

Scott is in an excessively Red State?

Are you assuming Scott won? Even if he does eke out a win, it's only because the Broward ballot design was so idiotic.

HappyGilmore says

False yet again. Typically midterms help the party out of power because they are the only voters that turn out. In this case, Trump got his base out. Like I said, the problem was unique to this year in that he alienated so many former Republicans that he lost anyway. And if Dems +7.5 isn't a wave, then what is a wave?

It was a typical midterm election -- In the House. The opposition picked up 30ish seats.

The Senate tells a different tale.

I think the Dems got the Illegals out in force.

HappyGilmore says

And false again. Dems had a very strong strategy for the House. They recruited good candidates everywhere. They supported them everywhere. They ran on healthcare. It worked.

They spent a fortune. Your GA-06 flip probably is nearing $100M in costs over the past two years.

And they had the entire Media and Big Tech behind them. Billions in Free Negative Ads against Republicans.

HappyGilmore says

So you're agreeing that I'm correct again. Level of education matters. Income doesn't.

Yes, brainwashing matters.

HappyGilmore says

Are you assuming Scott won? Even if he does eke out a win, it's only because the Broward ballot design was so idiotic.

I'm sure Scott won. You know this isn't the first time Brenda Snipes hasn't played games - and not just with Republicans, she was caught destroying primary ballots of a Progressive Challenger even though there was a pending suit over them.

I actually call on Scott to arrest her before she can hide the corpses.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

It was a typical midterm election -- In the House. The opposition picked up 30ish seats.

Number of seats won is actually a pretty poor measure. It depends so highly on how many seats the party had before the election. Better measure is vote %. And by that measure, it's right in line with the "wave" elections of the past.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

They spent a fortune. Your GA-06 flip probably is nearing $100M in costs.

Make up your mind. I thought they were focused on the Senate??

HappyGilmore says

Number of seats won is actually a pretty poor measure. It depends so highly on how many seats the party had before the election. Better measure is vote %. And by that measure, it's right in line with the "wave" elections of the past.

Nope. It's not a wave. It's simply an off year election. 30ish votes being typical. 60 is a wave election, like the Republicans in 2010.

And the pickups in the Senate confirm that.

HappyGilmore says

Make up your mind. I thought they were focused on the Senate??

Yes, Trump was focused on the Senate, that was apparent from where he had his rallies. .Figured the House would be dragged along. Didn't work - and nobody really knows why we had two opposite results with the Republicans doing about as good in the Senate as the Dems did in the House.

Dems weren't, they were looking for the House. So I stand by the approaching $100M for GA-06, and the win was paper thin and will be easily overturned in 2020.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

Nope. It's not a wave. It's simply an off year election. 30ish votes being typical. 60 is a wave election, like the Republicans in 2010.

And the pickups in the Senate confirm that.

Like I said--only if one purposely looks at the wrong measure. And it's really 40ish votes, not 30ish.

The only reason Reps got 60 was because they had so few to begin with.


TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

Yes, Trump was focused on the Senate. .Figured the House would be dragged along. Didn't work - and nobody really knows why we had two opposite results.

Dems weren't, they were looking for the House. So I stand by the approaching $100M for GA-06, and the win was paper thin and will be easily overturned in 2020.

Trump was focused on the Senate because none of the House members wanted him to come. He was toxic. The Senate seats were all in deep red states that Republicans should be winning all day every day. The fact that they lost Nevada, are going to lose AZ, almost lost TX, lost WV, Montana, is more of an indictment than a success.

HappyGilmore says

The only reason Reps got 60 was because they had so few to begin with.

It's because people thought they were getting a Golden Child who would put the banks in their place, instead they got a divisive SJW who focused on helping insurance companies make health mandatory and expensive.

HappyGilmore says

Trump was focused on the Senate because none of the House members wanted him to come. He was toxic. The Senate seats were all in deep red states that Republicans should be winning all day every day. The fact that they lost Nevada, are going to lose AZ, almost lost TX, lost WV, Montana, is more of an indictment than a success.

Maybe those House Members made a mistake.

Again, Florida isn't a Deep Red State

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

Maybe those House Members made a mistake.

Again, Florida isn't a Deep Red State

And Scott should have lost.

HappyGilmore says

And Scott should have lost.

He should have win, and will win. Just because it isn't deep Red doesn't mean it can't flip a Dem Senator.

Get ready for 2020. Please run Kamala Harris if possible.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

He should have win, and will win. Just because it isn't deep Red doesn't mean it can't flip a Dem Senator.

Get ready for 2020. Please run Kamala Harris if possible.

Scott may win, but only because of 20,000+ undervotes in Broward county. With a properly designed ballot, he loses.

Get ready for Betomania--that's going to be Trump's opponent in 2020.

Get ready for Betomania--that's going to be Trump's opponent in 2020.

I believe the Dems will run a female in 2020. Any male that shows promise will get the Al Franken treatment.

HappyGilmore says

Scott may win, but only because of 20,000+ undervotes in Broward county. With a properly designed ballot, he loses.

Hahaha, Trump is no !Jeb! Get ready for a nasty surprise. Snipes is going down, big league. She broke every law in the books already.

HappyGilmore says

Get ready for Betomania--that's going to be Trump's opponent in 2020.

Sorry, nationally anyone that goes by Beto is going to get thrashed. I know it's not his actual name, but Beto cannot come close to getting elected on a national level. He got beat by a very unlikable Republican incumbent in Cruz. Even for TX. Trump already beat Cruz too, so technically he's already ahead of Beto by default.

Dems really need to shift out of the fringe issues and start getting a candidate groomed that wants to help a majority of people instead of these fraction of a percentage of the population issues.

WookieMan says

Sorry, nationally anyone that goes by Beto is going to get thrashed. I know it's not his actual name, but Beto cannot come close to getting elected on a national level

lol-- A guy named Barack can get elected twice, but an Irish guy nicknamed Beto can't? Not sure about that...

WookieMan says

Dems really need to shift out of the fringe issues

Healthcare is not a fringe issue. Education is not a fringe issue.

I say let Beta run for president. Once traditional women and real men see what Beta is all about, they'll vote for Alpha Trump.

Tim Aurora says

PrivilegedtobeWhite says

they'll vote for Alpha Trump.

http://patrick.net/post/1320166/2018-11-11-dotard-donney-ditches-dead-twitter-trump-tamed-by-thunder

Here's a secret...alphas do what they want, not what's expected of them...betas do that.

WookieMan says

Dems really need to shift out of the fringe issues and start getting a candidate groomed that wants to help a majority of people instead of these fraction of a percentage of the population issues.

Patrick says similar things, but it is a false dichotomy. Democrats' real problem is that several of their policies have actually harmed many or most Americans, including what used to be the Democratic base. For example:

Trade deals: NAFTA harmed many people in Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, and TPP would have harmed many more people.

Islam poses an existential threat to western liberalism generally and NATO in particular. Since Nixon's disastrous deals with KSA shifted the USD from the gold standard to the Petrodollar standard, Democrats and most Republicans (especially the Bush/Clinton dynasties) and the entire DC swamp have been deeply corrupted by Petrodollars and hypnotized into spreading Islam. It is fundamentally irrational and self-destructive for a western liberal democracy to spread Islam, and yet the NATO countries have been doing precisely that, and only since Nixon's disastrous deals. Prior to Nixon, western leaders including Churchill and Patton saw Islam for the retrograde "madness" that it was and is. Nixon was a Republican. It makes no sense for Democrats to embrace his policy of promoting KSA, and it is bizarre to see identitarian liberals call KSA an "ally," but Petrodollar hypnosis has that effect. “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!” DNCe angling for lucrative consulting contracts emphasize values like 'compassion' (for Muslims only, while ignoring Hindus and Buddhists who would love to come to the USA), and refuse to understand that spreading Islam is a horribly self-destructive mistake.

Obamneycare caused Democrats to suffer the worst midterm loss of any party in more than 70 years, and Democrats have never recovered. The party has lost credibility on the issue of health care, becoming part of the problem rather than the solution. As with Nixon's disastrous deals with KSA, HeritageFoundationCare did not even start as a Democratic party policy, but the tremendous amount of money corrupted the Democrats into supporting it.

It's fine for a party to help a fraction of a percentage of people, but it must also help at least a majority in enough states and districts to win. If the interests of a few align with the interests of the many, then you can help both at the same time, if you win. OTOH, if you have a corrupt party establishment determined to sell out its own base, then you lose even if you win. If Hillary had beaten Donald, she would have imported more than 60k "Syrian" "refugees" (from Hillary's War in Libya and Syria) in her first year, and these would have included more than 1k ISIL fighters, with more to follow. She acknowledged publicly that lethal terrorism "is clearly rooted in Islamic thinking," but proposed increasing mass surveillance on everyone to catch who is about to do what Islam says. That isn't liberal. Her Wikileaked emails acknowledged that her Saudi clients were principal financiers of terrorism worldwide, but her policies would have continued to serve them at American expense.

That is Democrats' basic problem: putting America, and Americans, last. You can accuse Republicans of having the same problem, and both major parties battle over their preferred myths like ancient warriors fighting for Zeus or Mars. Each side loves its own lies, and hates the lies of the other side. Democrats have unfortunately embraced the lie of Islam, in a country that is 80% Christian. Barack Obama imported a record number of Muslims while deporting a record number of Christians. You can dislike that fact if you want to, but it remains a fact. The USA is 80% Christian and 1% Muslim, and these two doctrines are in conflict. All of the western liberal democracies have Christian majorities, while none (zero) of the countries with Muslim majorities can really be called liberal democracies at all: to the contrary, they censor free speech and reject freedom of religion, as per Islam. Accept the fact that Islam is incompatible with western democracy, and pick the 80% if you want to win.

PrivilegedtobeWhite says

Looks like Montana went blue, so potential pickup of 4 depending on Arizona.

What ?

The possible pickup is between zero and two inclusive. Worst case at this point is Republicans increase to 53. Best case - it says at 51. Unlikely, but possible.

Goran was ready to bet $1000 that it would be more than 3.

HappyGilmore says

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

For posterity:

So, let's recap. As I tried to tell all of you, Nate was almost perfect. Dems are expected to win 38 seats when all is said and done and votes are done counting in CA.

The RCP polling average is going to be pretty damn close as well with Dems +7 or +7.5

My favorite--GA6 went to Dems this go around. Just needed a better candidate than Ossoff.

And as I tried to tell McGee--Republicans have lost suburban soccer Moms for a long time. Dems consistently won all types of suburban districts.

Typically, the party out of power wins in the midterms because the other party doesn't show up to vote. in 2018, Trump got his base out and they voted. But he has alienated so many ...

So, just a quick update and the almost final tally:

Dems have now gained 40 seats, more than almost anyone predicted. Dem House candidates will end up with almost as many votes in a mid-term election as Trump received in a Presidential year. And ended up +8. It was a complete rout.

So, while I'm certain Goran's mind wasn't changed, there is no doubt it was a blue wave.

Long term I think Trump will be great for the Democratic party, but short term it really hurts the country.

HappyGilmore says

Dems have now gained 40 seats, more than almost anyone predicted. Dem House candidates will end up with almost as many votes in a mid-term election as Trump received in a Presidential year. And ended up +8. It was a complete rout.

So, while I'm certain Goran's mind wasn't changed, there is no doubt it was a blue wave.

And yet, the Republicans picked up two Senate seats.

I'm convinced there was a huge amount of illegal voter mail fraud, and that had Broward not been stopped, Florida would have turned Blue. California is beyond hope, but Arizona was surprising, although I think the GOPe runs Arizona and much of the losses were due to GOPe allowing the Dems to commit fraud without check. In Pennsylvania, the liberal State Supreme Court jerrymandered districts to favor the Democrats.

There were some very odd races where early Republican voting and mail-in ballots when Republicans normally dominate Election Day, ended up with all the ballots counted after election day mysteriously swinging to the Democrat. And many races where the Republican State Officials won by double digit margins, but the Democrat unseated an incumbent, which is unusual in mid-term elections.

Additionally, the results in Orange County showed the Democrats are the new party of the Elite and the Lumpenproles against Middle America and back the 6th-7th Party System idea. This was a realignment election which reflects the new Nationalist Populist vs. Elite Globalist nature of US Politics.

The Dems did get out their base, but I'm not convinced of the married female voter. The suburban SEIU member cat lady yes.

Three pieces of Good News:

* Many of the ousted Republicans were RINOs and these seats were lost by a hair
* It took incredible sums to flip these districts over several cycles, like Georgia 6.
* But many of these districts went Democrat by a hair (again, GA-6) and can easily flip back.

Trump is going to be re-elected in 2020, and the House will swing back like it did in 2010. IF the Republican State legislatures crack down on Fraud and Illegal Voting. If not, we will be swamped by an Elitist-Third World alliance that will destroy the American Dream forever, and blame it all on White Men.

Edit: Another person who deserves blame is Paul Ryan and other GOPe types who populate most of the Ground Forces. He loves globalism and sees populism is a threat.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

White Men

Fucking White Men, oppressors of womyn, minorities, and transgendereds

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

Trump is going to be re-elected in 2020, and the House will swing back like it did in 2010. IF the Republican State legislatures crack down on Fraud and Illegal Voting. If not, we will be swamped by an Elitist-Third World alliance that will destroy the American Dream forever, and blame it all on White Men.

The reason this is possible is because of unmarried women and to a lesser extent, coastal soyboys. The unifying angle is that both groups have no direct descendants to protect, see their cosmopolitan provincialism as a superior and infallible worldview, and hate (married and/or attractive, successful) White Males

HappyGilmore says

Long term I think Trump will be great for the Democratic party, but short term it really hurts the country.

God save us. I'm embarrassed for humanity when people truly believe socialistic ideals are the way to go. We're slowly killing the human race.

Herdingcats says

roads private, close public schools, close the post office, disband fire, police and the military all socialistic ideals

These aren't socialism, they're called infrastructure and public services, funded through taxation, common to every municipality. The only exception is public schools, a perfect microcosm of what the Soviet Union would have created and funded. And yes, in virtually every instance with the schools, private outperforms public.

And with the Mississippi race finally decided, the Senate stands at 53-47.