There will be no "Blue Wave", change my mind!
invite response
2018 May 14, 8:51am 76,654 views 699 comments
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541
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Nov 6, 10:56am
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Nov 6, 10:56am
Tim Aurora says
That's not what I'm getting at.
Nationally, it's a 41-42% D/R split. So what about the other 17%? Most of the those are independents.
The Media typically is badgering people who claim to be independent, yet this time it's like they don't care. We KNOW it's a partisan election, so what really matters is how the 17% will break.
Yet reporters haven't seemed to have pestered, and pundits haven't pontificated, on how they are voting.
It's all been married women, suburbanites, etc.
It's odd.
TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce saysHaven't heard shit about them this election. It's like 15% of the Electorate Disappeared.
They did. I became Democratic, Goran a Republican, That is what Trump has done.
That's not what I'm getting at.
Nationally, it's a 41-42% D/R split. So what about the other 17%? Most of the those are independents.
The Media typically is badgering people who claim to be independent, yet this time it's like they don't care. We KNOW it's a partisan election, so what really matters is how the 17% will break.
Yet reporters haven't seemed to have pestered, and pundits haven't pontificated, on how they are voting.
It's all been married women, suburbanites, etc.
It's odd.
548
zzyzzx
2018 Nov 6, 12:20pm
zzyzzx
2018 Nov 6, 12:20pm
Orange Cat Good!
Cats are naturally Republican:
They love freedom.
They enforce borders.
They hunt for themselves.
They cover their poop.
They have dignity.
Cats are naturally Republican:
They love freedom.
They enforce borders.
They hunt for themselves.
They cover their poop.
They have dignity.
554
Rin
2018 Nov 6, 2:27pm
Rin
2018 Nov 6, 2:27pm
TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
Hillary needs Rin, as her campaign manager ...
Strap-On Hilly, Sassy, Titty, and a whole lot of fun!
zzyzzx says
Saving this for later tonight.
Hillary needs Rin, as her campaign manager ...
Strap-On Hilly, Sassy, Titty, and a whole lot of fun!
556
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Nov 6, 4:13pm
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Nov 6, 4:13pm
Only blue on the map so far is two uncontested Dem seats, one in Georgia and one in Virginia.
Every single seat so far that's posting in the parts of Indiana/Kentucky are trending red by a good margin.
Of the four dark reds, one is an uncontested, the other three are already so much Republican they're unlikely to be close at all.
Every single seat so far that's posting in the parts of Indiana/Kentucky are trending red by a good margin.
Of the four dark reds, one is an uncontested, the other three are already so much Republican they're unlikely to be close at all.
557
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Nov 6, 4:18pm
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Nov 6, 4:18pm
Cook Report had FL-16 listed as "Competitive" and FL-26 as "Toss Up"
Currently, the GOP candidate is leading by about 14 pts in FL-16 and by about 6 pts in FL-26.
Only a handful of precincts reporting.
Currently, the GOP candidate is leading by about 14 pts in FL-16 and by about 6 pts in FL-26.
Only a handful of precincts reporting.
561
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 7:23pm
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 7:23pm
Goran_K says
I don't know. You tell me. If democrats pick up well over 30 seats in the house, is it a blue wave or not ?
I reckon it depends on how you define blue wave.
There will be no "Blue Wave", change my mind!
I don't know. You tell me. If democrats pick up well over 30 seats in the house, is it a blue wave or not ?
I reckon it depends on how you define blue wave.
562
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 7:24pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 7:24pm
marcus says
I’d say that is in line with expectations. Incumbents have only held the house 4 times in history. Last time it happened was 2002 (16 years ago).
But if they don’t hold the house, what do you call it?
Goran_K saysThere will be no "Blue Wave", change my mind!
I don't know. You tell me. If democrats pick up well over 30 seats in the house, is it a blue wave or not ?
I reckon it depends on how you define blue wave.
I’d say that is in line with expectations. Incumbents have only held the house 4 times in history. Last time it happened was 2002 (16 years ago).
But if they don’t hold the house, what do you call it?
563
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 7:28pm
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 7:28pm
Goran_K says
I guess at present I'd call it something that has about a 1 in 8 chance of happening.
But if they don’t hold the house, what do you call it?
I guess at present I'd call it something that has about a 1 in 8 chance of happening.
564
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 7:30pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 7:30pm
marcus says
Dems lost 5 senate seats (I predicted 4). Is that a blue wave?
Goran_K saysBut if they don’t hold the house, what do you call it?
I guess at present I'd call it something that has about a 1 in 8 chance of happening.
Dems lost 5 senate seats (I predicted 4). Is that a blue wave?
565
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 7:31pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 7:31pm
It’s almost certain that Ginsburgs seat will be filled by a conservative.
567
socal2
2018 Nov 6, 7:37pm
marcus says
Republicans picked up 63 House seats and 6 Senate seats in 2010.
Looks like:
Democrats will pick up 30 House seats and Lose 4-5 Senate seats in 2018.
What does that look like to you?
don't know. You tell me. If democrats pick up well over 30 seats in the house, is it a blue wave or not ?
Republicans picked up 63 House seats and 6 Senate seats in 2010.
Looks like:
Democrats will pick up 30 House seats and Lose 4-5 Senate seats in 2018.
What does that look like to you?
568
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 7:41pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 7:41pm
The historical average pickup by non incumbents is 28 seats in the house and 2 senate seats.
So far the Dems are projected to win 25-30 seats (expected) and lose 4 - 5 senate seats (totally unexpected).
This isn’t a blue wave.
So far the Dems are projected to win 25-30 seats (expected) and lose 4 - 5 senate seats (totally unexpected).
This isn’t a blue wave.
569
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Nov 6, 7:43pm
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Nov 6, 7:43pm
Goran_K says
Well, the refugees got a lot of free water bottles from his campaign (donors).
Finally, Hollywood gave up it's wealth to the poor.
Good bye Beto. All that Hollywood money for naught.
Well, the refugees got a lot of free water bottles from his campaign (donors).
Finally, Hollywood gave up it's wealth to the poor.
570
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 7:45pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 7:45pm
Aphroman says
Losing 5 senate seats looks like a crushing defeat. Trump will probably replace anywhere from 80-100 federal judge appointments in the next 2 years.
socal2 saysmarcus saysdon't know. You tell me. If democrats pick up well over 30 seats in the house, is it a blue wave or not ?
Republicans picked up 63 House seats and 6 Senate seats in 2010.
Looks like:
Democrats will pick up 30 House seats and Lose 4-5 Senate seats in 2018.
What does that look like to you?
It looks like they flipped the House
What does it look like to you?
Losing 5 senate seats looks like a crushing defeat. Trump will probably replace anywhere from 80-100 federal judge appointments in the next 2 years.
571
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 7:46pm
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 7:46pm
Aphroman says
IT looks like you can fool some of the people some of the time.
THe economy is strong, and the democrats are picking up possibly over 30 seats in the house. Republicans pick up 2 or 3 seats in the senate.
I'm not disappointed compared to what was predicted. What everyone thought would happen is happening.
What does it look like to you?
IT looks like you can fool some of the people some of the time.
THe economy is strong, and the democrats are picking up possibly over 30 seats in the house. Republicans pick up 2 or 3 seats in the senate.
I'm not disappointed compared to what was predicted. What everyone thought would happen is happening.
572
just_passing_through
2018 Nov 6, 7:47pm
just_passing_through
2018 Nov 6, 7:47pm
Goran_K says
Yup, they were just yacking about that on the newz..
But Guam! har har
Trump will probably replace anywhere from 80-100 federal judge appointments in the next 2 years.
Yup, they were just yacking about that on the newz..
But Guam! har har
573
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 7:48pm
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 7:48pm
Goran_K says
Closer to 35 or more, apparently.
So far the Dems are projected to win 25-30 seats (expected)
Closer to 35 or more, apparently.
574
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Nov 6, 7:48pm
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Nov 6, 7:48pm
marcus says
Marcus, the Republicans already got Indiana, Florida, and North Dakota . They're already Up 3, and have a good chance of gaining Arizona and Missouri.
What REALLY helped the Dems is that liberal Supreme State Supreme Court Judges forced a pro-Dem redistricting of Pennsylvania.
THe economy is strong, and the democrats are picking up possibly over 30 seats in the house. Republicans pick up 2 or 3 seats in the senate.
Marcus, the Republicans already got Indiana, Florida, and North Dakota . They're already Up 3, and have a good chance of gaining Arizona and Missouri.
What REALLY helped the Dems is that liberal Supreme State Supreme Court Judges forced a pro-Dem redistricting of Pennsylvania.
575
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 7:52pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 7:52pm
Ymarcus says
You thought before this the Dems would lose 3 senate seats? (More like 4-5 based on votes right now).
Where did you predict this? Certainly not on PatNet.
Aphroman saysWhat does it look like to you?
IT looks like you can fool some of the people some of the time.
THe economy is strong, and the democrats are picking up possibly over 30 seats in the house. Republicans pick up 2 or 3 seats in the senate.
I'm not disappointed compared to what was predicted. What everyone thought would happen is happening.
You thought before this the Dems would lose 3 senate seats? (More like 4-5 based on votes right now).
Where did you predict this? Certainly not on PatNet.
576
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 7:57pm
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 7:57pm
Goran_K says
I made no prediction about the senate, at least as far as I recall. I totally believed the analysts that said there was a 1 in 5 chance democrats would take control of the senate.
I did predict (only becasue you or someone asked), that the house would pick up 39 democrat seats. We will see how far off that was. I knew it was very optimistic and hopeful prediction. I'll be quite happy with 32 or 35.
You're disappointed right now.
I'm not.
Not that I see you as being honest (with yourself or the forum) enough to admit that I'm right about that.
You thought before this the Dems would lose 3 senate seats? (More like 4-5 based on votes right now).
Where did you predict this? Certainly not on PatNet.
I made no prediction about the senate, at least as far as I recall. I totally believed the analysts that said there was a 1 in 5 chance democrats would take control of the senate.
I did predict (only becasue you or someone asked), that the house would pick up 39 democrat seats. We will see how far off that was. I knew it was very optimistic and hopeful prediction. I'll be quite happy with 32 or 35.
You're disappointed right now.
I'm not.
Not that I see you as being honest (with yourself or the forum) enough to admit that I'm right about that.
577
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 8:01pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 8:01pm
marcus says
Your expectations must be low. Trump can replace federal judges at will for the next two years with a solid senate majority including the SCOTUS, no more Gorsuch or Kavanaugh nail biters. Also Trump being impeached out of office is now impossible.
The house thing sucks (true) but was expected.
Just ask yourself this. Would you rather own the POTUS, solid majority in the senate, solid majority in SCOTUS or small majority in the house?
We know the truth Marcus.
Goran_K saysYou thought before this the Dems would lose 3 senate seats? (More like 4-5 based on votes right now).
Where did you predict this? Certainly not on PatNet.
I made no prediction about the senate, at least as far as I recall. I totally believed the analysts that said there was a 1 in 5 chance democrats would take control of the senate.
I did predict (only becasue you or someone asked, that the house would pick up 39 democrat seats. We will see how far off that was. I knew it was very opimistic. I'll be quite happy with 32 or 35.
You're disappointed right now.
I'm not.
Not that I see you as being honest enough to admit that I'm right about that.
Your expectations must be low. Trump can replace federal judges at will for the next two years with a solid senate majority including the SCOTUS, no more Gorsuch or Kavanaugh nail biters. Also Trump being impeached out of office is now impossible.
The house thing sucks (true) but was expected.
Just ask yourself this. Would you rather own the POTUS, solid majority in the senate, solid majority in SCOTUS or small majority in the house?
We know the truth Marcus.
578
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 8:08pm
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 8:08pm
Is that your way of agreeing with me ? That just with respect to today ? I'm not disappointed and you are ?
Come on. Be that one republican that's not lying 100% of the time. OR that every once in a while even understands the question.
Come on. Be that one republican that's not lying 100% of the time. OR that every once in a while even understands the question.
579
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 8:09pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 8:09pm
marcus says
I was being honest. I said the house thing sucked. But I’m happy to keep the POTUS, senate and SCOTUS and all federal judge appointments for the next 2 years. That honestly, no joke, makes me happy because judges at the circuit courts and SCOTUS last for decades and can over turn bad leftist laws.
But you said you prayed hard every night for the senate to turn as well and now that the senate went 4-5 seats against your prayers, you’re not disappointed?
That seems ... peculiar.
Is that your way of agreeing with me ? That just with respect to today ? I'm not disappointed and you are ?
Come on. Be that one republican that's not lying 100% of the time. OR that every once in a while even understands the question.
I was being honest. I said the house thing sucked. But I’m happy to keep the POTUS, senate and SCOTUS and all federal judge appointments for the next 2 years. That honestly, no joke, makes me happy because judges at the circuit courts and SCOTUS last for decades and can over turn bad leftist laws.
But you said you prayed hard every night for the senate to turn as well and now that the senate went 4-5 seats against your prayers, you’re not disappointed?
That seems ... peculiar.
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Yesterday former Bill Clinton advisor Dick Morris told radio host on New York's AM 970 that he believes the "blue wave" that Democrats are expecting to give them back the Senate and House will not materialize, and polling has backed him up.
Last week, CNN's mid term poll showed that Democrats only had a 3 point advantage, well within the margin of error, and considering that CNN is known for "oversampling" Democrats in its own polls, this is troubling for the DNC.
Additionally, a recent poll from Reuters (left leaning) has shown that Millennials are leaving the Democrat party in droves. Democrat membership in the 18-34 demographic (the bread and butter of the DNC) dropped 9% over the past 2 years, most of them becoming "independents".
"I think that [Democrats] see fool’s gold in these scandals," Morris said. "They’re putting everything behind the Stormy Daniels scandal and Michael Cohen … and the country doesn’t give a damn."
That's when Morris dropped his prediction.
"There is no blue wave coming," Morris exclaimed. "There is a red wave. And what makes it red is the blood of the Democratic Party."
Here's my official take. I believe the GOP will LOSE seats in the house but will not give it up to the DNC. I believe the GOP will GAIN seats in the senate, keeping their majority. This will mean that Trump will have both houses of congress for his entire term.