patrick.net

As for the government shutdown, my biggest complaint is that the employees get back pay for work NOT performed. How ridiculous is that?

The current "shutdown" is for the situation: Gosh... we don't have any work to do but have lots of money; everyone stop working bug we'll still pay you.

However, our ACTUAL situation is: We don't have the cash to pay you but there's still plenty of work to do.

I'd propose we instead have a government PAY shutdown. ALL government employees still do their jobs, but their PAY is withheld until the finances are settled. Those workers who don't show up either have to use their vacation days or are fired. Those employees who didn't set aside emergency funds or make other financial arrangements ... aren't responsible people and shouldn't have been hired in the first place.

SunnyvaleCA says

I'd propose we instead have a government PAY shutdown.

Hear, hear!

An overview from BBC. Looks like from a national standpoint it's not the end of the world, but there are plenty of individuals struggling.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-46739180

Tenpoundbass says

Obviously the guy on the right is richer than his past version on the left, because people get fat from being poor and skinny from being rich. Amirite?

SunnyvaleCA says

ALL government employees still do their jobs, but their PAY is withheld until the finances are settled. Those workers who don't show up either have to use their vacation days or are fired.

What's the downside of being fired if you don't get paid anyway?

I've been thinking about walls and their effectiveness. I see there being two types of wall: deterrent and preventive.

Deterrent walls are like locks. They won't stop a determined intruder but they will turn away casual intruders. For instance, a fan of a Hollywood celeb might be inclined to walk up and knock on the door, but a wall and gate would deter them. I've never had the windows on my car smashed to gain entry, but twice I've forgot to lock up and had stuff stolen from the glove box.

I'd argue that a deterrent wall is insufficient for the US's southern border. History has shown that tunnels and sabotage and the like will happen.

So the US needs a preventive wall. I'll take from military doctrine to argue that a true barrier needs observation (and direct and indirect fire). Unless the southern border wall includes observation and ready intervention (as a more appropriate response than direct and indirect fire), then it will not act as a preventive wall. Any budget requirement for a wall should include maintenance, observation and a means to respond.

What if the shutdown was not really about a wall but to cover up shitty economic data signaling the path forward is no where near as picturesque as forecast.

There is dearth of economic information awol for the masses but not so much for the well connected.

Then again the partial U.S. government shutdown has docked fishing boats in Alaska, delayed public meetings on a proposed wind farm off the Massachusetts coast and blocked pharmaceutical companies from seeking approval for new drugs.

But the Trump administration is working overtime to make sure the shutdown doesn’t halt oil drilling too -- in ways critics say may flout federal law.

“One of the principles of government is that you serve everybody equally,” but that’s not what’s happening here, said Matt Lee-Ashley, a former deputy chief of staff at the Interior Department. “The oil industry is still getting business as usual and everybody else is getting shut out, so it’s fundamentally not fair and it may be illegal too.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-08/trump-is-giving-oil-industry-a-bye-in-shutdown-critics-allege?srnd=premium

Seems when oil is involved nothing is off the table including regime change here there and everywhere....

Economic data is still strong.

mell says

Economic data is still strong.

The automakers, steel makers, retail, real estate etc. may not be in agreement with your assessment.

When and if the next shutdown takes place as threatened on or about 15 February - the people can put an end to it quickly.

Air traffic controllers walk off the job 24 hours after the onset.

Teamsters and Longshoremen do the same or at least engage in a "work slowdown" for which they are masters at doing.

Maritime pilots walk off the job

Union members of all other unions join in solidarity and stage work slowdowns or just walk off

Should the above happen, anyone taking bets how long the shutdown lasts ?

It's time the people take back the country. Cripple the ports, trucking, air transportation and whatever else can be crippled - you will see one really fast resolution - so fast you will wonder how it got done so fast.

As for the last shutdown the air traffic controllers really deserve the credit for ending it - some things are just bigger than Potus's ego

East Germany built a wall to keep people inside. We want to build a wall to keep people from entering the country illegally. There's a huge difference. No one is stopping anyone from attempting to go the legal route to enter the country.

Trump states the border was secure so why the need for a wall. He also stated he could "shut it down" anytime so again - that being the case what is the sudden need for the wall except to pander to his base.

If it is secure and can be shut down at will - sounds like everything is under control - unless it isn't at which point that makes Trump a liar - again.

Donald J. Trump
✔ @realDonaldTrump

....however, for strictly political reasons and because they have been pulled so far left, do NOT want Border Security. They want Open Borders for anyone to come in. This brings large scale crime and disease. Our Southern Border is now Secure and will remain that way.......

91.7K
7:12 AM - Dec 11, 2018

So which is it - the border is secure or somehow between December 11th and the day the GOP lost control of the House everything went to shit

They work really spiffy for keeping people in place, such as in East Berlin.

Odd thing though - people kept wanting to get around, over or under that wall......

Kakistocracy says

mell says

Economic data is still strong.

The automakers, steel makers, retail, real estate etc. may not be in agreement with your assessment.

RE is overvalued.

Spend some time with the tool I provided on the post here: http://patrick.net/post/1321715/2019-01-22-investment-research

Things are not going well - the wall shutdown may have been a big distraction to keep some of the numbers from coming out after the December meltdown.

Things are getting iffy in a lot or places around the world right now - there was a substantial housing related flash crash in Hong Kong earlier this month...

RE is but one sector that is getting weak

After all that I have done for the Military, our great Veterans, Judges (99), Justices (2), Tax & Regulation Cuts, the Economy, Energy, Trade & MUCH MORE, does anybody really think I won’t build the WALL? Done more in first two years than any President! MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 28, 2019

Kakistocracy says

They work really spiffy for keeping people in place, such as in East Berlin.

Odd thing though - people kept wanting to get around, over or under that wall......

What on Earth is odd about that? If people did not want to get in or out, no wall would be needed or built.

By the way, that Berlin did work, despite a few people getting through it. Without that wall, East Berlin would have been a ghost town.

@mell - We’re Flying with Eyes Partially Closed into Turbulent Markets & Economy

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/01/25/were-flying-with-our-eyes-partially-closed-at-a-turbulent-moment/

Worth a read which is why I am getting more convinced the shutdown was not about a wall or border security at all, but a distraction from whatever is in those numbers no one has seen.

Kakistocracy says

Air traffic controllers walk off the job 24 hours after the onset.

Teamsters and Longshoremen do the same or at least engage in a "work slowdown" for which they are masters at doing.

Maritime pilots walk off the job

Union members of all other unions join in solidarity and stage work slowdowns or just walk off

Should the above happen,

Nice fantasy..

If they walk off their jobs, they're finished, and get zip for pay.

If they go to work, their pay is delayed.

How many of those on your fantasy list can afford to be fired, since most have nothing saved up for a rainy day?

What else is CNN telling you?

Vital economic data was likely lost during the shutdown – here’s why it matters to all Americans

One of those concerns is the dizzying amount of economic data the federal government collects on everything from the state of the economy and investment to the cost of college and the quality of nursing homes. During the partial government shutdown, a lot of data simply weren’t collected, which means at a minimum there will be gaps in what people know about the U.S. economy, the jobs picture and housing, to name just a few areas.

Americans may not realize just how vital this is to a wide range of groups and individuals – including an economist like myself.

This is another powerful reason why it’s essential that the president and Democrats agree on a long-term solution during the upcoming three-week truce.

https://theconversation.com/vital-economic-data-was-likely-lost-during-the-shutdown-heres-why-it-matters-to-all-americans-110483

MrMagic says

Nice fantasy..

If they walk off their jobs, they're finished, and get zip for pay.

Dreaming of the PATCO days and St. Reagan of Trickle Down now are we ?

Here's a hint why this will work. The Harbor Pilots, Teamsters, Longshoremen, etc. are not paid by the government and it the unions show solidarity, they can shutdown the country economically and put one yuuggee hurt on a lot of companies and as such the bottom line and stock prices - lots of money to be lost for some really powerful people.

A good slowdown sprinkled with a lot of aw shit moments will do the same but take a wee bit longer.

You over estimate the Golden Golem and fail to remember how one wildcat strike at the Port of Oakland/San Francisco can fuck things up, double that for Long Beach and there is the entire East Coast to hit with rolling wildcat strikes.

See - there is a trickle down effect to all of this bullshit but just not the way it is supposed to work.

Did you fail to see how fast a deal was reached once La Guardia etc. started to shutdown last week ?

No air traffic control (they were not getting paid) - no FedEx, no UPS, no passengers etc. - money speaks a lot louder than Trump and Trump can and will be tossed under the bus if he costs the wrong people too much money.

Donny might be able to make Moo in the words of AF but he can not fire all of these people.

People in this country do not realize how much power they have at their fingertips without picking up one weapon to not only take back the country from the politicians but get the attention of the same loud and clear.

Who could have seen this coming ? Obviously not the best and brightest in the administration - that's who.

DHS: Multiple US gov domains hit in serious DNS hijacking wave

The DHS’ Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) issued the directive on Tuesday, 12 days after security firm FireEye warned of an unprecedented wave of ongoing attacks that altered the domain name system records belonging to telecoms, ISPs, and government agencies. DNS servers act as directories that allow one computer to find other computers on the Internet. By tampering with these records, attackers can potentially intercept passwords, emails, and other sensitive communications.

The CISA directive made no mention of the temporary government shutdown. As Ars reported on Thursday, that situation has impacted idling US government IT workers, many of whom are responsible for securing networks. (As this post was going live, it was widely reported President Trump agreed to a deal that would reopen the government through February 15, at least.) Krebs also didn’t identify the executive branch agency domains that were hit by the hijacking attacks.

The attacks are serious because the attackers are able to obtain browser-trusted TLS certificates for the hijacked domains. That allows the interception to occur with no obvious signs that anything is amiss. For more on how the attacks work, see Ars’ previously mentioned coverage.

https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2019/01/multiple-us-gov-domains-hit-in-serious-dns-hijacking-wave-dhs-warns/?comments=1

Making America Great Again - Wheeeeeeee

On a side note.....

President Donald Trump took to Twitter to voice his displeasure with reporters who work for right-leaning Fox News Sunday and said he thought CNN and MSNBC understood his “Wall negotiations” better.

“Never thought I’d say this but I think [John Roberts] and [Gillian Turner] [Fox News] have even less understanding of the Wall negotiations than the folks at FAKE NEWS CNN [and] NBC! Look to final results! Don’t know how my poll numbers are so good, especially up 19% with Hispanics?” Trump wrote Sunday.

“After all that I have done for the Military, our great Veterans, Judges (99), Justices (2), Tax & Regulation Cuts, the Economy, Energy, Trade [and] MUCH MORE, does anybody really think I won’t build the WALL? Done more in first two years than any President! MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!” Trump added minutes later.

https://dailycaller.com/2019/01/27/trump-fox-border-wall/

Folks - you can make this shit up. Fucking hilarious....OMFG

Pundit type Trump supporters in a group photo

Kakistocracy says

Air traffic controllers walk off the job 24 hours after the onset.

Teamsters and Longshoremen do the same or at least engage in a "work slowdown" for which they are masters at doing.

Maritime pilots walk off the job

Union members of all other unions join in solidarity and stage work slowdowns or just walk off

Why would these people do that? Do you really think they want more illegals flooding their neighborhoods and their kid's classes at school swollen to 40 pupils with influx of "ESL students"? More friendly MS13 on their streets? Who told you the average longshoreman wants unchecked immigration from 3rd world shitholes?