patrick.net

No bubble, at least in fortress San Jose. Rudimentary houses are now topping the million dollar sales even in lesser fortress areas like 95123.

If anything, the bubble is getting bigger.

Yeah it started in the whole bay area, but there will be no burst until a recession hits, just stagnation and a very slow deflate maybe offset by inflation. Once economic data turns bad watch out below! Houses in SF staying significantly longer on the market longer now, but still selling eventually. No bidding wars though anymore. Give it some time.

It has burst in Australia.

Seattle and San Fran have popped.

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/02/26/the-most-splendid-housing-bubble-in-america-deflate-february-2018/

Watch it spread and accelerate over next six months.

Sorry, but I may be in a position to buy soon, so until I do, there will be no bubble pop. ;)

The commodity abscess has burst! It's Pus-Ageddon!

I was looking at the Shiller Price Index in that SeekingAlpha.com article. It was 185 at the peak in 2006 and is now around 215.

That means the Shiller Home index only increased by about 1.25% annually from 2006 to present day. So much for a rebound in housing as traditionally it should go up at least at the rate of inflation (i.e., 2 to 3%).

Like Patrick has stated many times, you are buying a monthly payment (principal+interest+taxes+insurance+HOA fee+maintenance) when you purchase a home.

What is the ratio of median monthly payment to median household net income ?

Yep, I'd paid off my home in central MA but rent in the city of Boston, expensing a fraction of the cost, as an office, which makes my apartment very cheap by Boston standards.

I have no intentions of purchasing, as my retirement plans are to be in a society where seeing hoes is fully legal, like Australia.

And if I'm stuck in America for a while, I'll have a sex robot delivered to my central MA home, once I'm done fooling around in the city.

whitewater says

Seattle and San Fran have popped.

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/02/26/the-most-splendid-housing-bubble-in-america-deflate-february-2018/

Watch it spread and accelerate over next six months.

You’re quoting articles from Seeking Brain and Clueless Street as your reference of housing bubble bursting? With the amount of companies going IPO this year, don’t be surprise we’ll have another leg up this spring and summer. How long have you been waiting for the housing bubble to pop or continuing to pop? Since 2009 or 2012? You missed the bus dude.

E-man says

You’re quoting articles from Seeking Brain and Clueless Street as your reference of housing bubble bursting? With the amount of companies going IPO this year, don’t be surprise we’ll have another leg up this spring and summer. How long have you been waiting for the housing bubble to pop or continuing to pop? Since 2009 or 2012? You missed the bus dude.

IPO is one part of the equation, there are quite a lot of public companies give generous stock options, RSUs, ESPP every quarter/year. That money goes to a very limited existing houses that should drive prices even higher for new high tech slum lords. Prop 13 made property tax is irrelevant from the massive raise of market price from purchase price, so there is no pressure on existing owners to sell. NIMBYs has a strong influence that they sell the ideas of building creates "environmental disasters" and driving massive "regulations" and "zoning" to go against new housing. Also a very strong Job market attracting lot of talent who replace people with higher income. Not sure the real impact of the recession but the above factors are strong enough to sustain the price unless there is a massive building that deals with massive demand and most importantly repeal Prop 13 (this should free Prop 13 Victims, Slaves in your Neighborhood)