invite responseComments 1 - 19 of 19 Search these comments
1
exfatguy
2019 Feb 26, 2:48pm
No bubble, at least in fortress San Jose. Rudimentary houses are now topping the million dollar sales even in lesser fortress areas like 95123.
If anything, the bubble is getting bigger.
If anything, the bubble is getting bigger.
2
mell
2019 Feb 26, 3:17pm
Yeah it started in the whole bay area, but there will be no burst until a recession hits, just stagnation and a very slow deflate maybe offset by inflation. Once economic data turns bad watch out below! Houses in SF staying significantly longer on the market longer now, but still selling eventually. No bidding wars though anymore. Give it some time.
4
whitewater
2019 Feb 26, 3:31pm
Seattle and San Fran have popped.
https://wolfstreet.com/2019/02/26/the-most-splendid-housing-bubble-in-america-deflate-february-2018/
Watch it spread and accelerate over next six months.
https://wolfstreet.com/2019/02/26/the-most-splendid-housing-bubble-in-america-deflate-february-2018/
Watch it spread and accelerate over next six months.
5
exfatguy
2019 Feb 26, 4:04pm
Sorry, but I may be in a position to buy soon, so until I do, there will be no bubble pop. ;)
7
AD
2019 Feb 26, 5:01pm
AD
2019 Feb 26, 5:01pm
I was looking at the Shiller Price Index in that SeekingAlpha.com article. It was 185 at the peak in 2006 and is now around 215.
That means the Shiller Home index only increased by about 1.25% annually from 2006 to present day. So much for a rebound in housing as traditionally it should go up at least at the rate of inflation (i.e., 2 to 3%).
Like Patrick has stated many times, you are buying a monthly payment (principal+interest+taxes+insurance+HOA fee+maintenance) when you purchase a home.
What is the ratio of median monthly payment to median household net income ?
That means the Shiller Home index only increased by about 1.25% annually from 2006 to present day. So much for a rebound in housing as traditionally it should go up at least at the rate of inflation (i.e., 2 to 3%).
Like Patrick has stated many times, you are buying a monthly payment (principal+interest+taxes+insurance+HOA fee+maintenance) when you purchase a home.
What is the ratio of median monthly payment to median household net income ?
8
Rin
2019 Feb 26, 8:26pm
Rin
2019 Feb 26, 8:26pm
Yep, I'd paid off my home in central MA but rent in the city of Boston, expensing a fraction of the cost, as an office, which makes my apartment very cheap by Boston standards.
I have no intentions of purchasing, as my retirement plans are to be in a society where seeing hoes is fully legal, like Australia.
And if I'm stuck in America for a while, I'll have a sex robot delivered to my central MA home, once I'm done fooling around in the city.
I have no intentions of purchasing, as my retirement plans are to be in a society where seeing hoes is fully legal, like Australia.
And if I'm stuck in America for a while, I'll have a sex robot delivered to my central MA home, once I'm done fooling around in the city.
9
Eman
2019 Feb 26, 10:35pm
Eman
2019 Feb 26, 10:35pm
whitewater says
You’re quoting articles from Seeking Brain and Clueless Street as your reference of housing bubble bursting? With the amount of companies going IPO this year, don’t be surprise we’ll have another leg up this spring and summer. How long have you been waiting for the housing bubble to pop or continuing to pop? Since 2009 or 2012? You missed the bus dude.
Seattle and San Fran have popped.
https://wolfstreet.com/2019/02/26/the-most-splendid-housing-bubble-in-america-deflate-february-2018/
Watch it spread and accelerate over next six months.
You’re quoting articles from Seeking Brain and Clueless Street as your reference of housing bubble bursting? With the amount of companies going IPO this year, don’t be surprise we’ll have another leg up this spring and summer. How long have you been waiting for the housing bubble to pop or continuing to pop? Since 2009 or 2012? You missed the bus dude.
10
Blue
2019 Feb 27, 12:09am
E-man says
IPO is one part of the equation, there are quite a lot of public companies give generous stock options, RSUs, ESPP every quarter/year. That money goes to a very limited existing houses that should drive prices even higher for new high tech slum lords. Prop 13 made property tax is irrelevant from the massive raise of market price from purchase price, so there is no pressure on existing owners to sell. NIMBYs has a strong influence that they sell the ideas of building creates "environmental disasters" and driving massive "regulations" and "zoning" to go against new housing. Also a very strong Job market attracting lot of talent who replace people with higher income. Not sure the real impact of the recession but the above factors are strong enough to sustain the price unless there is a massive building that deals with massive demand and most importantly repeal Prop 13 (this should free Prop 13 Victims, Slaves in your Neighborhood)
You’re quoting articles from Seeking Brain and Clueless Street as your reference of housing bubble bursting? With the amount of companies going IPO this year, don’t be surprise we’ll have another leg up this spring and summer. How long have you been waiting for the housing bubble to pop or continuing to pop? Since 2009 or 2012? You missed the bus dude.
IPO is one part of the equation, there are quite a lot of public companies give generous stock options, RSUs, ESPP every quarter/year. That money goes to a very limited existing houses that should drive prices even higher for new high tech slum lords. Prop 13 made property tax is irrelevant from the massive raise of market price from purchase price, so there is no pressure on existing owners to sell. NIMBYs has a strong influence that they sell the ideas of building creates "environmental disasters" and driving massive "regulations" and "zoning" to go against new housing. Also a very strong Job market attracting lot of talent who replace people with higher income. Not sure the real impact of the recession but the above factors are strong enough to sustain the price unless there is a massive building that deals with massive demand and most importantly repeal Prop 13 (this should free Prop 13 Victims, Slaves in your Neighborhood)
11
anonymous
2019 Feb 27, 1:50am
The current housing bubble could take 2 paths on this chart — both are nasty but one’s nastier
'We’re so accustomed to being surprised on the upside that we’ve forgotten we can be surprised on the downside, as well'
So, when’s the Fed going to start buying up millions of homes?
Assuming the answer is “it’s not,” Charles Hugh Smith of the Of Two Minds blog says prices are going to get hit hard across the country.
The latest data would hardly derail his gloomy outlook.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city index shows home price growth is screeching to a halt. The gauge rose 0.2% in December vs. November and 4.2% from year ago — the slowest pace of annual growth since 2014.
Smith said that bursting bubbles tend to follow a symmetrical reversal in terms of time durations and magnitudes of their initial rise.
“If the bubble took four years to inflate and rose by X, the retrace tends to take about the same length of time and tends to retrace much or all of X,” he wrote.
He used this chart of the Case-Shiller Housing Index as an example:
Smith explained that the Fed, by dropping interest rates to near-zero and buying mortgage-backed securities, didn’t allow the first bubble on the chart to run its course. This time around, however, there are “no more saves in the Fed’s locker,” he warned, adding that this decline will start this year and end around 2025.
But which path will it take?
Smith said the more realistic analysts out there would at least agree that some declines in prices is a possibility, and that it would look like the milder scenario.
That’s now how he sees it though.
“There is a good case for Scenario 2, in which price plummets below the 2012 lows and keeps on going, ultimately retracing the entire housing bubble gains from 2003,” he said, laying out several factors, such as massive student debt, insufficient income to support nosebleed prices, the exit of Chinese buyers, etc.
“The economy has changed, and the sacrifices required to buy a house in hot markets at today’s prices make no sense,” Smith concluded. “The only question of any real interest is how low prices will drop by 2025. We’re so accustomed to being surprised on the upside that we’ve forgotten we can surprised on the downside as well.”
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-current-bubble-could-take-two-paths-on-this-chart-one-is-nastier-than-the-other-2019-02-26
'We’re so accustomed to being surprised on the upside that we’ve forgotten we can be surprised on the downside, as well'
So, when’s the Fed going to start buying up millions of homes?
Assuming the answer is “it’s not,” Charles Hugh Smith of the Of Two Minds blog says prices are going to get hit hard across the country.
The latest data would hardly derail his gloomy outlook.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city index shows home price growth is screeching to a halt. The gauge rose 0.2% in December vs. November and 4.2% from year ago — the slowest pace of annual growth since 2014.
Smith said that bursting bubbles tend to follow a symmetrical reversal in terms of time durations and magnitudes of their initial rise.
“If the bubble took four years to inflate and rose by X, the retrace tends to take about the same length of time and tends to retrace much or all of X,” he wrote.
He used this chart of the Case-Shiller Housing Index as an example:
Smith explained that the Fed, by dropping interest rates to near-zero and buying mortgage-backed securities, didn’t allow the first bubble on the chart to run its course. This time around, however, there are “no more saves in the Fed’s locker,” he warned, adding that this decline will start this year and end around 2025.
But which path will it take?
Smith said the more realistic analysts out there would at least agree that some declines in prices is a possibility, and that it would look like the milder scenario.
That’s now how he sees it though.
“There is a good case for Scenario 2, in which price plummets below the 2012 lows and keeps on going, ultimately retracing the entire housing bubble gains from 2003,” he said, laying out several factors, such as massive student debt, insufficient income to support nosebleed prices, the exit of Chinese buyers, etc.
“The economy has changed, and the sacrifices required to buy a house in hot markets at today’s prices make no sense,” Smith concluded. “The only question of any real interest is how low prices will drop by 2025. We’re so accustomed to being surprised on the upside that we’ve forgotten we can surprised on the downside as well.”
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-current-bubble-could-take-two-paths-on-this-chart-one-is-nastier-than-the-other-2019-02-26
13
Bullshit
2019 Feb 27, 5:06am
Bullshit
2019 Feb 27, 5:06am
Anybody have any information on Oregon? I have a friend who repo's houses for banks (ie shows up, throws you out, and changes the locks). Every time I talk to him, business seems to be booming.
Factors that I think will affect Oregon housing in the near future:
1. Oregon has passed the first in nation "Statewide Rent Control" - or it should be law in the coming few days.
2. The issue of the SALT tax deduction loss with the Trump plan. Something tells me that Oregon will be affected, considering we have a 9.9% state tax rate.
3. A statewide $15/hour minimum wage. Not as great a factor as 1 or 2, but still, I think it will factor in somehow.
There's been so many changes/laws enacted in the last year or so, I must say I am quite curious to see what happens. The thing is, I don't know exactly what. From an economics standpoint, overall, I think ALL 3 factors are negative. But again, I just don't know exactly what will happen.
Anybody have any input?
Factors that I think will affect Oregon housing in the near future:
1. Oregon has passed the first in nation "Statewide Rent Control" - or it should be law in the coming few days.
2. The issue of the SALT tax deduction loss with the Trump plan. Something tells me that Oregon will be affected, considering we have a 9.9% state tax rate.
3. A statewide $15/hour minimum wage. Not as great a factor as 1 or 2, but still, I think it will factor in somehow.
There's been so many changes/laws enacted in the last year or so, I must say I am quite curious to see what happens. The thing is, I don't know exactly what. From an economics standpoint, overall, I think ALL 3 factors are negative. But again, I just don't know exactly what will happen.
Anybody have any input?
14
whitewater
2019 Feb 27, 5:12am
“IPO is one part of the equation” ... Rin loves hoes and Rin is rich therefore one should bang hoes to get rich.
It’s called magical thinking.
The number of IPO is causal in real estate? I don’t see it. The stock market is a completely managed and manipulated market these days anyways and has very little bearing on the economy aside from propping up pensions a little while longer.
It’s called magical thinking.
The number of IPO is causal in real estate? I don’t see it. The stock market is a completely managed and manipulated market these days anyways and has very little bearing on the economy aside from propping up pensions a little while longer.
15
anonymous
2019 Feb 27, 5:50am
Bullshit says
@Bullshit - try these for a start
https://www.zillow.com/or/home-values/
Scroll down thru this blog to get some perspectives on Oregon
https://www.sammamishmortgage.com/blog/
Next one has not updated yet for Oregon in 2019
https://www.housingpredictor.com/oregon-housing-market/
City by city market trends in Oregon - updated daily
https://www.movoto.com/or/market-trends/
Portland Real Estate Bubble – Housing Market Crash 2019
https://realestateagentpdx.com/portland-real-estate-bubble-housing-market-crash-2019/13382
2019 Portland Housing Market Forecast and Trends
https://www.pdxlisted.com/2019-portland-housing-market-forecast/
Washington vs. Oregon: An Updated Home-Price Outlook for 2019
https://www.sammamishmortgage.com/washington-vs-oregon-home-price-outlook/
Portland Real Estate Market Predictions for 2019, 2020 and 2021
https://www.pdxlisted.com/portland-real-estate-market-2019-2020-2021/
Anybody have any information on Oregon?
@Bullshit - try these for a start
https://www.zillow.com/or/home-values/
Scroll down thru this blog to get some perspectives on Oregon
https://www.sammamishmortgage.com/blog/
Next one has not updated yet for Oregon in 2019
https://www.housingpredictor.com/oregon-housing-market/
City by city market trends in Oregon - updated daily
https://www.movoto.com/or/market-trends/
Portland Real Estate Bubble – Housing Market Crash 2019
https://realestateagentpdx.com/portland-real-estate-bubble-housing-market-crash-2019/13382
2019 Portland Housing Market Forecast and Trends
https://www.pdxlisted.com/2019-portland-housing-market-forecast/
Washington vs. Oregon: An Updated Home-Price Outlook for 2019
https://www.sammamishmortgage.com/washington-vs-oregon-home-price-outlook/
Portland Real Estate Market Predictions for 2019, 2020 and 2021
https://www.pdxlisted.com/portland-real-estate-market-2019-2020-2021/
17
Malcolm
2019 Feb 27, 11:02am
Malcolm
2019 Feb 27, 11:02am
And no, we did not miss it. I called it last year when I saw the State of California starting their foreclosure bailout nonsense again, where Pedro can get up to $100,000 to save his home.
http://patrick.net/post/1312974/2018-01-09-did-we-just-pop-a-new-housing-bubble-http-keepyourhomecalifornia-org-programs-principal-reduction
http://patrick.net/post/1312974/2018-01-09-did-we-just-pop-a-new-housing-bubble-http-keepyourhomecalifornia-org-programs-principal-reduction
18
Rin
2019 Feb 27, 1:14pm
Rin
2019 Feb 27, 1:14pm
whitewater says
Stop inverting Rin Wah Law.
Rin Wah Law is to motivate one to become rich, so that one can regularly bonk hoes.
In that spectrum, there are the newbies who can only afford a realistic sex doll. That's step one because it saves a ton of money on dating. And then, one can work on step 2 and 3.
Then, there are the up and comers, who can see hoes but not so frequently. For these ppl, living near a Canadian border town, so that when one is away from work, one can make the drive for a boink more convenient. This is why I wanted a corporate HQ in Ann Arbor Michigan because Windsor Ontario is a stone's throw away.
Rin loves hoes and Rin is rich therefore one should bang hoes to get rich.
Stop inverting Rin Wah Law.
Rin Wah Law is to motivate one to become rich, so that one can regularly bonk hoes.
In that spectrum, there are the newbies who can only afford a realistic sex doll. That's step one because it saves a ton of money on dating. And then, one can work on step 2 and 3.
Then, there are the up and comers, who can see hoes but not so frequently. For these ppl, living near a Canadian border town, so that when one is away from work, one can make the drive for a boink more convenient. This is why I wanted a corporate HQ in Ann Arbor Michigan because Windsor Ontario is a stone's throw away.
19
anonymous
2019 Mar 4, 7:56am
Who Wins in a long-drawn-out gradual Housing Bust?
It always boils down to this: Regardless of how thin you cut a slice of bologna, there are always two sides to it. When home prices drop after a housing bubble, there are many losers. But here are the winners – including a whole generation (11 minutes).
www.youtube.com/embed/EMcEF5hUJ1I
It always boils down to this: Regardless of how thin you cut a slice of bologna, there are always two sides to it. When home prices drop after a housing bubble, there are many losers. But here are the winners – including a whole generation (11 minutes).
www.youtube.com/embed/EMcEF5hUJ1I
https://seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4244140-now-housing-bubble-2-bursting-low-will-go