Did We Just Pop a New Housing Bubble???? http://keepyourhomecalifornia.org/programs/principal-reduction/
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Did We Just Pop a New Housing Bubble???? http://keepyourhomecalifornia.org/programs/principal-reduction/

By Malcolm following x   2018 Jan 9, 10:16am 453 views   20 comments   watch   sfw   quote     share    


I just saw a TV commercial for a "save your home" California state program offering up to $100,000 to homeowners, to prevent a foreclosure. I have recently decided for myself that prices have reached a new high in my area, but this commercial shook me. Even during the last bubble, there were some loan modifications, but not to the extent of the State paying off mortgage principal. If this is the case, the State is literally offering to pay upside down loans to prevent another meltdown. This is only going to make it even more severe as the scarcer new buyers will be buying housing at State inflated prices.

Unbelievable.http://keepyourhomecalifornia.org/programs/principal-reduction/
1   Satoshi_Nakamoto   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 9, 11:27am   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Fuck: here goes my plan for getting $3M for my shack.
2   anon_aa0f8   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 9, 2:32pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Noticed while looking at zillow that in my area foreclosure have gone up 3X in the past 6 months?

Are any other locale seeing a creep up of foreclosures?
3   iwog   ignore (3)   2018 Jan 9, 3:08pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote      

We got this exact same thread 6 months ago. Housing in California went ahead and made new highs.

It's winter. No one moves in the middle of a school year. No one moves during Christmas. Everyone will start looking for a house in March and things will accelerate from there.
4   HEYYOU   ignore (6)   2018 Jan 9, 3:14pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Sometimes one can feel the wind from a black swan's wings & not realize the source.
"Shit Happens" because what can't continue won't continue?
5   Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 9, 3:35pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

anon_aa0f8 says
Noticed while looking at zillow that in my area foreclosure have gone up 3X in the past 6 months?

Are any other locale seeing a creep up of foreclosures?


Yes, most definitely. I sold my house a couple of months ago and was stunned to see similar homes with slightly higher asking prices, which were bank owned. I did well, but wow, that was a surprise.
6   joshuatrio   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 9, 3:38pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

I don't know. Stuff is moving around here pretty quickly.

Iwog is right - winter slowdown is real.

Nov/Dec are generally dirt slow months, but I'm seeing inventory priced right (in metro Atlanta) go in 1-2 days.
7   WineHorror1   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 9, 5:33pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

iwog says
We got this exact same thread 6 months ago. Housing in California went ahead and made new highs.

It's winter. No one moves in the middle of a school year. No one moves during Christmas. Everyone will start looking for a house in March and things will accelerate from there.

What's your outlook for 2018?
8   mell   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 9, 5:38pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

WineHorror1 says
What's your outlook for 2018?


Not going to appreciate much, could even dip. But no crash in sight yet.
9   APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch   ignore (26)   2018 Jan 9, 6:08pm   ↑ like (6)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

I'm armed.

The wives are armed and live to fuck on piles of quivering, freshly killed dead.

Kids are armed and eager to kill.

The yams are brined and good for a shelf life of 200 years.

The outlook is FUCKING! A!
10   Strategist   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 9, 6:46pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

mell says
What's your outlook for 2018?


Not going to appreciate much, could even dip. But no crash in sight yet.


My predictions:
Construction will go through the roof. The homebuilders index - ITB, increased 60% in 2017. Should increase more than 60% in 2018.
Home prices in OC should shoot up 10% +
Stock prices.....I predict a 6% jump. I hope I am wrong, and the S&P jumps 10% +
Champagne will be in short supply.
11   WineHorror   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 9, 6:56pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

iwog says
WineHorror1 says
What's your outlook for 2018?


I don't know. I got so angry from what happened to moderation that I didn't do a forecast thread this year. Maybe I'll put one together in a few days.

I'd love to hear your methodology. I don't see anywhere near the home building action I saw back in the day. I'm in northern Virginia and it would seem to me an almost impossible task for new buyers.

Btw, don't get so angry. Just keep doing what you do and ignore those who taunt you. If you want to call out a lie, maybe come up with a symbol to signify it.
12   WineHorror   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 9, 6:59pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Strategist says
mell says
What's your outlook for 2018?


Not going to appreciate much, could even dip. But no crash in sight yet.


My predictions:
Construction will go through the roof. The homebuilders index - ITB, increased 60% in 2017. Should increase more than 60% in 2018.
Home prices in OC should shoot up 10% +
Stock prices.....I predict a 6% jump. I hope I am wrong, and the S&P jumps 10% +
Champagne will be in short supply.


Where, exactly, do you see or will see home building going through the roof?
13   mell   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 9, 7:01pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Strategist says
mell says
What's your outlook for 2018?


Not going to appreciate much, could even dip. But no crash in sight yet.


My predictions:
Construction will go through the roof. The homebuilders index - ITB, increased 60% in 2017. Should increase more than 60% in 2018.
Home prices in OC should shoot up 10% +
Stock prices.....I predict a 6% jump. I hope I am wrong, and the S&P jumps 10% +
Champagne will be in short supply.


Not here in the bay area, People are tapped out. I put the range of YoY appreciation at -5% to +5% but we will see.2017 brough 5%-7% increase YoY depending on condo/SFH. Not much room left here. Lot of properties taking months to sell now due to their high prices, but it's also winter though bay area doesn't have much of a winter. I think you're too optimistic, If, of course the stock market keeps rising at 10%-20% rates and now layoffs in sight it may pan out more bullish. Many hedge funders expect significantly more volatility in 2018 but who knows.
14   Strategist   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 9, 7:11pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

WineHorror says

My predictions:
Construction will go through the roof. The homebuilders index - ITB, increased 60% in 2017. Should increase more than 60% in 2018.
Home prices in OC should shoot up 10% +
Stock prices.....I predict a 6% jump. I hope I am wrong, and the S&P jumps 10% +
Champagne will be in short supply.


Where, exactly, do you see or will see home building going through the roof?


Wherever there is a shortage, which is in most of the country. The population keeps increasing, while home construction has lagged in the last 10 years. It's the only reason why rents and home prices keep going up. Build they will, which is why homebuilders way outperformed the S&P in 2017, and will continue to do so until they build enough to catch up.
The time will come when home construction will over overshoot, along with the stock price of the home builders. That will be the time to sell.
15   APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch   ignore (26)   2018 Jan 9, 7:16pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

There are still millions of PRC Army officers, minor Saudi princes and racketeers who need someplace to bury cash.

There is no reason a 3/2 in Stockton should not be valued at 14x the GDP of South Korea.
16   Strategist   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 9, 7:17pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

mell says
My predictions:
Construction will go through the roof. The homebuilders index - ITB, increased 60% in 2017. Should increase more than 60% in 2018.
Home prices in OC should shoot up 10% +
Stock prices.....I predict a 6% jump. I hope I am wrong, and the S&P jumps 10% +
Champagne will be in short supply.


Not here in the bay area, People are tapped out. I put the range of YoY appreciation at -5% to +5% but we will see.2017 brough 5%-7% increase YoY depending on condo/SFH. Not much room left here. Lot of properties taking months to sell now due to their high prices, but it's also winter though bay area doesn't have much of a winter. I think you're too optimistic, If, of course the stock market keeps rising at 10%-20% rates and now layoffs in sight it may pan out more bullish. Many hedge funders expect significantly more volatility in 2018 but who knows.


The Bay Area is a very unique region. It was always overpriced, and continues to be so. Just watch the population figures in the BA. If it keeps increasing, nothing can stop the rise in home prices.
17   Satoshi_Nakamoto   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 9, 7:27pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

WineHorror says
Where, exactly, do you see or will see home building going through the roof?


East Dubin. West Livermore. West Pleasanton. Rows upon rows of hideous condo developments are going up.
18   FortWayne   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 9, 7:34pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

AF is killing it with comedy today
19   mell   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 9, 7:40pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Strategist says
The Bay Area is a very unique region. It was always overpriced, and continues to be so. Just watch the population figures in the BA. If it keeps increasing, nothing can stop the rise in home prices.


There's actually an exodus of Americans out of CA and an influx of mostly immigrants who cannot afford these prices. The market was supported by the foreign cash buyers. SF itself is going to shit and cannot cope with the rising population. San Jose seems to be doing a bit better at coping and has a better appreciating housing market. SF and the bay area are beautiful but horribly mismanaged. It all hinges on the new tech bubble.
20   mell   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 9, 8:50pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Also many high-end properties have price cuts like fuck. I'm talking more than 20% easily. And they're not selling. The pressure remains in "starter" shacks.

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