Did We Just Pop a New Housing Bubble???? http://keepyourhomecalifornia.org/programs/principal-reduction/
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Did We Just Pop a New Housing Bubble???? http://keepyourhomecalifornia.org/programs/principal-reduction/

By Malcolm following x   2018 Jan 9, 10:16am 1,755 views   44 comments   watch   sfw   quote     share    


I just saw a TV commercial for a "save your home" California state program offering up to $100,000 to homeowners, to prevent a foreclosure. I have recently decided for myself that prices have reached a new high in my area, but this commercial shook me. Even during the last bubble, there were some loan modifications, but not to the extent of the State paying off mortgage principal. If this is the case, the State is literally offering to pay upside down loans to prevent another meltdown. This is only going to make it even more severe as the scarcer new buyers will be buying housing at State inflated prices.

Unbelievable.http://keepyourhomecalifornia.org/programs/principal-reduction/

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5   mell   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 9, 5:38pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

WineHorror1 says
What's your outlook for 2018?


Not going to appreciate much, could even dip. But no crash in sight yet.
6   APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch   ignore (28)   2018 Jan 9, 6:08pm   ↑ like (9)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

I'm armed.

The wives are armed and live to fuck on piles of quivering, freshly killed dead.

Kids are armed and eager to kill.

The yams are brined and good for a shelf life of 200 years.

The outlook is FUCKING! A!
7   Strategist   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 9, 6:46pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

mell says
What's your outlook for 2018?


Not going to appreciate much, could even dip. But no crash in sight yet.


My predictions:
Construction will go through the roof. The homebuilders index - ITB, increased 60% in 2017. Should increase more than 60% in 2018.
Home prices in OC should shoot up 10% +
Stock prices.....I predict a 6% jump. I hope I am wrong, and the S&P jumps 10% +
Champagne will be in short supply.
8   WineHorror   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 9, 6:59pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Strategist says
mell says
What's your outlook for 2018?


Not going to appreciate much, could even dip. But no crash in sight yet.


My predictions:
Construction will go through the roof. The homebuilders index - ITB, increased 60% in 2017. Should increase more than 60% in 2018.
Home prices in OC should shoot up 10% +
Stock prices.....I predict a 6% jump. I hope I am wrong, and the S&P jumps 10% +
Champagne will be in short supply.


Where, exactly, do you see or will see home building going through the roof?
9   mell   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 9, 7:01pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Strategist says
mell says
What's your outlook for 2018?


Not going to appreciate much, could even dip. But no crash in sight yet.


My predictions:
Construction will go through the roof. The homebuilders index - ITB, increased 60% in 2017. Should increase more than 60% in 2018.
Home prices in OC should shoot up 10% +
Stock prices.....I predict a 6% jump. I hope I am wrong, and the S&P jumps 10% +
Champagne will be in short supply.


Not here in the bay area, People are tapped out. I put the range of YoY appreciation at -5% to +5% but we will see.2017 brough 5%-7% increase YoY depending on condo/SFH. Not much room left here. Lot of properties taking months to sell now due to their high prices, but it's also winter though bay area doesn't have much of a winter. I think you're too optimistic, If, of course the stock market keeps rising at 10%-20% rates and now layoffs in sight it may pan out more bullish. Many hedge funders expect significantly more volatility in 2018 but who knows.
10   Strategist   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 9, 7:11pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

WineHorror says

My predictions:
Construction will go through the roof. The homebuilders index - ITB, increased 60% in 2017. Should increase more than 60% in 2018.
Home prices in OC should shoot up 10% +
Stock prices.....I predict a 6% jump. I hope I am wrong, and the S&P jumps 10% +
Champagne will be in short supply.


Where, exactly, do you see or will see home building going through the roof?


Wherever there is a shortage, which is in most of the country. The population keeps increasing, while home construction has lagged in the last 10 years. It's the only reason why rents and home prices keep going up. Build they will, which is why homebuilders way outperformed the S&P in 2017, and will continue to do so until they build enough to catch up.
The time will come when home construction will over overshoot, along with the stock price of the home builders. That will be the time to sell.
11   APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch   ignore (28)   2018 Jan 9, 7:16pm   ↑ like (4)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

There are still millions of PRC Army officers, minor Saudi princes and racketeers who need someplace to bury cash.

There is no reason a 3/2 in Stockton should not be valued at 14x the GDP of South Korea.
12   Strategist   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 9, 7:17pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

mell says
My predictions:
Construction will go through the roof. The homebuilders index - ITB, increased 60% in 2017. Should increase more than 60% in 2018.
Home prices in OC should shoot up 10% +
Stock prices.....I predict a 6% jump. I hope I am wrong, and the S&P jumps 10% +
Champagne will be in short supply.


Not here in the bay area, People are tapped out. I put the range of YoY appreciation at -5% to +5% but we will see.2017 brough 5%-7% increase YoY depending on condo/SFH. Not much room left here. Lot of properties taking months to sell now due to their high prices, but it's also winter though bay area doesn't have much of a winter. I think you're too optimistic, If, of course the stock market keeps rising at 10%-20% rates and now layoffs in sight it may pan out more bullish. Many hedge funders expect significantly more volatility in 2018 but who knows.


The Bay Area is a very unique region. It was always overpriced, and continues to be so. Just watch the population figures in the BA. If it keeps increasing, nothing can stop the rise in home prices.
13   Satoshi_Nakamoto   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 9, 7:27pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

WineHorror says
Where, exactly, do you see or will see home building going through the roof?


East Dubin. West Livermore. West Pleasanton. Rows upon rows of hideous condo developments are going up.
14   FortWayne   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 9, 7:34pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

AF is killing it with comedy today
15   mell   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 9, 7:40pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Strategist says
The Bay Area is a very unique region. It was always overpriced, and continues to be so. Just watch the population figures in the BA. If it keeps increasing, nothing can stop the rise in home prices.


There's actually an exodus of Americans out of CA and an influx of mostly immigrants who cannot afford these prices. The market was supported by the foreign cash buyers. SF itself is going to shit and cannot cope with the rising population. San Jose seems to be doing a bit better at coping and has a better appreciating housing market. SF and the bay area are beautiful but horribly mismanaged. It all hinges on the new tech bubble.
16   mell   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 9, 8:50pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Also many high-end properties have price cuts like fuck. I'm talking more than 20% easily. And they're not selling. The pressure remains in "starter" shacks.
17   Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Feb 9, 8:42pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

mell says
Also many high-end properties have price cuts like fuck. I'm talking more than 20% easily. And they're not selling. The pressure remains in "starter" shacks.


I am consistently seeing actual house sales of $200/sf in my area now. This is on houses that are quite large, and luxurious. Comparatively, smaller houses like my old one sell for $400/sf. I found a foreclosure app that I suspect is a conglomeration of lenders. There are many foreclosure auctions coming up. It appears that this time, banks learned to not take ownership, so they are literally advertising the trustee sale. Purchasers have to bring the full price with them in cash to the auction. The amounts owing are staggering. Many auctions are for houses that are in the hundreds of thousands of dollars, upside down. This means for example, someone owes $800,000 and the starting price is $300,000.

The second massive bubble is clearly bursting in San Diego.
18   Patrick   ignore (0)   2018 Feb 9, 8:59pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

This is all excellent news.
19   lostand confused   ignore (0)   2018 Feb 9, 9:13pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Interesting, in my areas winter is slow, because nobody can move here then. But even here not selling that much. That would be interesting a massive drop in stocks and home prices-well home prices drops may be good.

But this is not CA.CA is just overpriced.
20   anonymous   ignore (null)   2018 Feb 9, 10:04pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Malcolm says
The second massive bubble is clearly bursting in San Diego.


21   Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Feb 26, 7:48pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Ahhhh, history repeats itself. For the Patrick veterans, does any of this sound familiar?

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/26/rising-mortgage-rates-hit-new-home-sales-hard-a-bad-sign-for-builders.html
23   Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Feb 26, 8:04pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

All of the blue dots are foreclosures in 92069. This was the neighborhood that I just got out of.

24   FortWayne   ignore (1)   2018 Feb 26, 8:17pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Sounds like they are giving money away. Page 4 states it’s a non recourse non interest loan that is forgiven in 10 years if I understood it correctly.

Basically free money to those who bought what they could not afford.

Our tax dollars at work... unions robbing us, gov is subsidizing housing bubble, homelessness is through the roof... liberal paradise of failures. It’s why there will never be enough taxes, plenty of theft every minute.
25   Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Feb 26, 8:20pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

FortWayne says
Basically free money to those who bought what they could not afford.


It is funny, I just saw the commercial again. Yes, that is what is disgusting about it. It is causing homelessness because it is preventing prices from adjusting to what the market can pay.
26   anonymous   ignore (null)   2018 Feb 26, 8:59pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

lets Wait and hope for a great RE crash
27   FortWayne   ignore (1)   2018 Feb 27, 7:38am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

You know it’s probably a scam. Guys connected on inside get all their loans subsidized, while average Americans are left to compete vs unfair advantage. This is awe full and corrupt.
28   Strategist   ignore (1)   2018 Feb 27, 11:15am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

anon_3a1a3 says
lets Wait and hope for a great RE crash


We had the great RE crash 10 years ago. Who did it help?
29   Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Mar 9, 7:08pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

A very interesting article supporting the fact that some housing markets have become unsustainable. Amazon is literally concerned that employees will end up in foreclosure, which would cause labor problems.

https://phys.org/news/2018-02-amazon-hq2-finalists-overvalued-housing.html

Half of the metro areas on Amazon's "short list" for its new HQ2 have overvalued housing—including the Dallas area, according to a new report by economists at CoreLogic.

"CoreLogic has reviewed home price trends in the cities that are being considered for the second headquarters for online retail giant Amazon," chief economist Frank Nothaft says in a new report. "All the cities on the shortlist are experiencing home price increases.

"Some cities have even exceeded the national average of 6 percent."

CoreLogic considers Austin, Dallas, Denver, Los Angeles, Miami, Montgomery County Md., Nashville, New York, Northern Virginia and Washington, D.C. as market where home values have exceeded sustainable levels.

Indianapolis and Pittsburgh—also on Amazon's HQ2 shopping list—CoreLogic sees as undervalued.

Real estate costs are just one of the factors the Seattle-based digital retailing giant is said to be considering in its hunt for the huge new employment site.

"Whatever decision Amazon makes will certainly be a boon for the selected city," Nothaft said.

North Texas housing analysts have said that if Amazon's HQ2 lands in D-FW the area won't have any problem housing the anticipated 50,000 jobs the new office center would create over 10 years.

Dallas-Fort Worth home prices are currently at record levels, having risen by more than 40 percent in the last four years.

CoreLogic estimates than Dallas-area home prices have risen about 6.4 percent in the last year.
30   Strategist   ignore (1)   2018 Mar 9, 8:04pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Malcolm says
A very interesting article supporting the fact that some housing markets have become unsustainable. Amazon is literally concerned that employees will end up in foreclosure, which would cause labor problems.

https://phys.org/news/2018-02-amazon-hq2-finalists-overvalued-housing.html



Malcolm, this a very bad assumption you posted. Just propaganda crap.
Very silly assumption by Amazon. How the fuck do they know home prices will fall.
Most of their employees will have already own homes.
If Amazon thinks home prices will fall, they could tell their employees not to buy homes.
If home prices crash, is it just an Amazon problem, or the problem of the nation?
My opinion.....Amazon is focused on the HQ2 site that benefits them the most, not what home prices do.
31   just_passing_through   ignore (0)   2018 Mar 9, 8:12pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

If they pick Texas reasonable home prices will not be an issue. Urban sprawl being an understatement. Fortunately, in the near term, they have the land.
32   FortWayne   ignore (1)   2018 Mar 9, 8:33pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Strategist says
We had the great RE crash 10 years ago. Who did it help?


Obama and the left to get elected. Those were the only real benefactors.
33   bob2356   ignore (1)   2018 Mar 10, 4:13am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote        

FortWayne says
Strategist says
We had the great RE crash 10 years ago. Who did it help?


Obama and the left to get elected. Those were the only real benefactors.


If bush hadn't cut taxes, slashed regulations on the financial industry, and raised government spending that wouldn't have happened. Good thing trump isn't going to cut taxes, slash regulations on the financial industry, and raise government spending. Oh wait, never mind.
34   FortWayne   ignore (1)   2018 Mar 10, 10:27am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Cutting taxes is good unless you are a communist like Bernie.

bob2356 says
FortWayne says
Strategist says
We had the great RE crash 10 years ago. Who did it help?


Obama and the left to get elected. Those were the only real benefactors.


If bush hadn't cut taxes, slashed regulations on the financial industry, and raised government spending that wouldn't have happened. Good thing trump isn't going to cut taxes, slash regulations on the financial industry, and raise government spending. Oh wait, never mind.
35   bob2356   ignore (1)   2018 Mar 10, 12:14pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

FortWayne says
Cutting taxes is good unless you are a communist like Bernie.


The government borrowing money to give to the wealthy is good? How does that work?

Balancing the budget and paying down the debt is good., Things republicans are only interested in when out of power.
36   Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Mar 21, 9:35am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

San Diego is experiencing a 10% decline in housing sales year over year. This is despite being back to full employment. Like the last time around, the median price continues to climb. This is due to top feeders buying expensive homes at a perceived bargain, in my opinion. The number of listings are growing, according to other more current articles that I am finding.

http://www.kpbs.org/news/2018/feb/07/san-diego-home-sales-down-10-percent-home-prices-7/
37   Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Mar 28, 10:39am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Does anyone want to debate whether the housing market in California is slowing down? In my opinion, starting to crash?

38   Ceffer   ignore (1)   2018 Mar 28, 10:48am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Yup, perusing Zillow, surprising number of foreclosures. Get the cash and buy at 60-70 percent "face" value on comps from bank.
39   Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Mar 28, 10:52am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Ceffer says
Yup, perusing Zillow, surprising number of foreclosures. Get the cash and buy at 60-70 percent "face" value on comps from bank.


Some of the valuations got so outrageous, I'm going to suggest that some homes will sell for 30-40% of their Zillow highs.
40   Evan F.   ignore (0)   2018 Apr 12, 7:30pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Hope the housing market holds up thru Sept. so I can sell my rental in Pasadena, CA.

Time to cash out.
41   EBGuy   ignore (0)   2018 Apr 12, 7:39pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

It ain't over, 'til it's over. We may be seeing some of the final resets/recasts from the original bubble. I know there was a story or two in my area about folks hanging in there by their fingernails, but finally deciding to throw in the towel.
42   FortWayne   ignore (1)   2018 Apr 12, 8:16pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

it's probably a scam, where people connected to government get their friends and family loans paid off by taxpayers, that sort of thing. while everyone else gets fucked with taxes.

that's how this government always operates.
43   Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Apr 13, 8:43am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Checking today, the trend I have been following seems to be holding. It is only houses above 2,000 s/f that are selling in my area. There are smaller homes listed, but those sales seem to have stopped.
44   WookieMan   ignore (0)   2018 Apr 13, 10:11am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Evan F. says
Hope the housing market holds up thru Sept. so I can sell my rental in Pasadena, CA.

Time to cash out.


What's the reason for not selling it now? It's the "hot" spring market right now in Realtor speak. If it's a multi-unit building you're probably fine, but if it's a house/condo, most people don't want to be looking to move in October/November if you go on the market in September. You guys got good weather, but you'd be starting to compete with the holidays and people not wanting to move that time of year. Just my $0.02

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