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Did We Just Pop a New Housing Bubble???? http://keepyourhomecalifornia.org/programs/principal-reduction/

By Malcolm following x   2018 Jan 9, 10:16am 5,006 views   60 comments   watch   sfw   quote     share    


I just saw a TV commercial for a "save your home" California state program offering up to $100,000 to homeowners, to prevent a foreclosure. I have recently decided for myself that prices have reached a new high in my area, but this commercial shook me. Even during the last bubble, there were some loan modifications, but not to the extent of the State paying off mortgage principal. If this is the case, the State is literally offering to pay upside down loans to prevent another meltdown. This is only going to make it even more severe as the scarcer new buyers will be buying housing at State inflated prices.

Unbelievable.http://keepyourhomecalifornia.org/programs/principal-reduction/

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21   Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Feb 26, 7:48pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Ahhhh, history repeats itself. For the Patrick veterans, does any of this sound familiar?

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/26/rising-mortgage-rates-hit-new-home-sales-hard-a-bad-sign-for-builders.html
23   Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Feb 26, 8:04pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

All of the blue dots are foreclosures in 92069. This was the neighborhood that I just got out of.

24   FortWayne   ignore (2)   2018 Feb 26, 8:17pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Sounds like they are giving money away. Page 4 states it’s a non recourse non interest loan that is forgiven in 10 years if I understood it correctly.

Basically free money to those who bought what they could not afford.

Our tax dollars at work... unions robbing us, gov is subsidizing housing bubble, homelessness is through the roof... liberal paradise of failures. It’s why there will never be enough taxes, plenty of theft every minute.
25   Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Feb 26, 8:20pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

FortWayne says
Basically free money to those who bought what they could not afford.


It is funny, I just saw the commercial again. Yes, that is what is disgusting about it. It is causing homelessness because it is preventing prices from adjusting to what the market can pay.
26   anonymous   ignore (null)   2018 Feb 26, 8:59pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

lets Wait and hope for a great RE crash
27   FortWayne   ignore (2)   2018 Feb 27, 7:38am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

You know it’s probably a scam. Guys connected on inside get all their loans subsidized, while average Americans are left to compete vs unfair advantage. This is awe full and corrupt.
28   Strategist   ignore (3)   2018 Feb 27, 11:15am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

anon_3a1a3 says
lets Wait and hope for a great RE crash


We had the great RE crash 10 years ago. Who did it help?
29   Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Mar 9, 7:08pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

A very interesting article supporting the fact that some housing markets have become unsustainable. Amazon is literally concerned that employees will end up in foreclosure, which would cause labor problems.

https://phys.org/news/2018-02-amazon-hq2-finalists-overvalued-housing.html

Half of the metro areas on Amazon's "short list" for its new HQ2 have overvalued housing—including the Dallas area, according to a new report by economists at CoreLogic.

"CoreLogic has reviewed home price trends in the cities that are being considered for the second headquarters for online retail giant Amazon," chief economist Frank Nothaft says in a new report. "All the cities on the shortlist are experiencing home price increases.

"Some cities have even exceeded the national average of 6 percent."

CoreLogic considers Austin, Dallas, Denver, Los Angeles, Miami, Montgomery County Md., Nashville, New York, Northern Virginia and Washington, D.C. as market where home values have exceeded sustainable levels.

Indianapolis and Pittsburgh—also on Amazon's HQ2 shopping list—CoreLogic sees as undervalued.

Real estate costs are just one of the factors the Seattle-based digital retailing giant is said to be considering in its hunt for the huge new employment site.

"Whatever decision Amazon makes will certainly be a boon for the selected city," Nothaft said.

North Texas housing analysts have said that if Amazon's HQ2 lands in D-FW the area won't have any problem housing the anticipated 50,000 jobs the new office center would create over 10 years.

Dallas-Fort Worth home prices are currently at record levels, having risen by more than 40 percent in the last four years.

CoreLogic estimates than Dallas-area home prices have risen about 6.4 percent in the last year.
30   Strategist   ignore (3)   2018 Mar 9, 8:04pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Malcolm says
A very interesting article supporting the fact that some housing markets have become unsustainable. Amazon is literally concerned that employees will end up in foreclosure, which would cause labor problems.

https://phys.org/news/2018-02-amazon-hq2-finalists-overvalued-housing.html



Malcolm, this a very bad assumption you posted. Just propaganda crap.
Very silly assumption by Amazon. How the fuck do they know home prices will fall.
Most of their employees will have already own homes.
If Amazon thinks home prices will fall, they could tell their employees not to buy homes.
If home prices crash, is it just an Amazon problem, or the problem of the nation?
My opinion.....Amazon is focused on the HQ2 site that benefits them the most, not what home prices do.
31   just_dregalicious   ignore (0)   2018 Mar 9, 8:12pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

If they pick Texas reasonable home prices will not be an issue. Urban sprawl being an understatement. Fortunately, in the near term, they have the land.
32   FortWayne   ignore (2)   2018 Mar 9, 8:33pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Strategist says
We had the great RE crash 10 years ago. Who did it help?


Obama and the left to get elected. Those were the only real benefactors.
33   bob2356   ignore (2)   2018 Mar 10, 4:13am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

FortWayne says
Strategist says
We had the great RE crash 10 years ago. Who did it help?


Obama and the left to get elected. Those were the only real benefactors.


If bush hadn't cut taxes, slashed regulations on the financial industry, and raised government spending that wouldn't have happened. Good thing trump isn't going to cut taxes, slash regulations on the financial industry, and raise government spending. Oh wait, never mind.
34   FortWayne   ignore (2)   2018 Mar 10, 10:27am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Cutting taxes is good unless you are a communist like Bernie.

bob2356 says
FortWayne says
Strategist says
We had the great RE crash 10 years ago. Who did it help?


Obama and the left to get elected. Those were the only real benefactors.


If bush hadn't cut taxes, slashed regulations on the financial industry, and raised government spending that wouldn't have happened. Good thing trump isn't going to cut taxes, slash regulations on the financial industry, and raise government spending. Oh wait, never mind.
35   bob2356   ignore (2)   2018 Mar 10, 12:14pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

FortWayne says
Cutting taxes is good unless you are a communist like Bernie.


The government borrowing money to give to the wealthy is good? How does that work?

Balancing the budget and paying down the debt is good., Things republicans are only interested in when out of power.
36   Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Mar 21, 9:35am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

San Diego is experiencing a 10% decline in housing sales year over year. This is despite being back to full employment. Like the last time around, the median price continues to climb. This is due to top feeders buying expensive homes at a perceived bargain, in my opinion. The number of listings are growing, according to other more current articles that I am finding.

http://www.kpbs.org/news/2018/feb/07/san-diego-home-sales-down-10-percent-home-prices-7/
37   Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Mar 28, 10:39am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Does anyone want to debate whether the housing market in California is slowing down? In my opinion, starting to crash?

38   Ceffer   ignore (1)   2018 Mar 28, 10:48am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Yup, perusing Zillow, surprising number of foreclosures. Get the cash and buy at 60-70 percent "face" value on comps from bank.
39   Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Mar 28, 10:52am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Ceffer says
Yup, perusing Zillow, surprising number of foreclosures. Get the cash and buy at 60-70 percent "face" value on comps from bank.


Some of the valuations got so outrageous, I'm going to suggest that some homes will sell for 30-40% of their Zillow highs.
40   Evan F.   ignore (0)   2018 Apr 12, 7:30pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Hope the housing market holds up thru Sept. so I can sell my rental in Pasadena, CA.

Time to cash out.
41   EBGuy   ignore (0)   2018 Apr 12, 7:39pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

It ain't over, 'til it's over. We may be seeing some of the final resets/recasts from the original bubble. I know there was a story or two in my area about folks hanging in there by their fingernails, but finally deciding to throw in the towel.
42   FortWayne   ignore (2)   2018 Apr 12, 8:16pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

it's probably a scam, where people connected to government get their friends and family loans paid off by taxpayers, that sort of thing. while everyone else gets fucked with taxes.

that's how this government always operates.
43   Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Apr 13, 8:43am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Checking today, the trend I have been following seems to be holding. It is only houses above 2,000 s/f that are selling in my area. There are smaller homes listed, but those sales seem to have stopped.
44   WookieMan   ignore (0)   2018 Apr 13, 10:11am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Evan F. says
Hope the housing market holds up thru Sept. so I can sell my rental in Pasadena, CA.

Time to cash out.


What's the reason for not selling it now? It's the "hot" spring market right now in Realtor speak. If it's a multi-unit building you're probably fine, but if it's a house/condo, most people don't want to be looking to move in October/November if you go on the market in September. You guys got good weather, but you'd be starting to compete with the holidays and people not wanting to move that time of year. Just my $0.02
45   Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Apr 28, 12:46pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Either somebody got a deal, or this is the beginning of severe pricing discounts in San Diego County.



This house sold for $205 per foot. It is 70s construction, but it looks like it was somewhat updated. For comparison, I sold for over $400 a foot for $445K last November. My house was under 1,100 square feet. 80s construction, but not even as nice as this house.
46   lostand confused   ignore (0)   2018 Apr 28, 1:08pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

bob2356 says
If bush hadn't cut taxes, slashed regulations on the financial industry, and raised government spending that wouldn't have happened

Par for the course. Who signed the repeal of Glass-Steagall?
47   Strategist   ignore (3)   2018 Apr 28, 2:33pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Malcolm says
Either somebody got a deal, or this is the beginning of severe pricing discounts in San Diego County.



This house sold for $205 per foot. It is 70s construction, but it looks like it was somewhat updated. For comparison, I sold for over $400 a foot for $445K last November. My house was under 1,100 square feet. 80s construction, but not even as nice as this house.


Anecdotal evidence is not indicative of anything, least of all the beginning of a housing crash.
This is what matter.

https://www.ocregister.com/2018/04/23/southern-california-home-prices-hit-record-highs-in-march-amid-slower-sales/
Southern California home prices soared to all-time highs in March, pushing values further out of reach for some buyers and causing others to stretch their finances more than expected.

Home sales, meanwhile, dipped from year-ago levels due mainly to a persistent lack of inventory.
48   Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Apr 28, 5:18pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Strategist says
Southern California home prices soared to all-time highs in March, pushing values further out of reach for some buyers and causing others to stretch their finances more than expected.

Home sales, meanwhile, dipped from year-ago levels due mainly to a persistent lack of inventory.


We'll have to see. A valid sale is hardly anecdotal evidence. If you look, the reason isn't lack of inventory, it is lack of sales at the lower level. This is significant because it shows what the smaller houses are potentially worth. The median price will go up, just like last time, but it is misleading, because it is reflecting discounted larger homes and a drop in the smaller ones. You are also corroborating my observations that sales are down 6-10%. That's actually pretty significant. I can show you pages of larger homes selling between 200-300 per square foot. When smaller homes sell for 200 a foot, like this one did, that is the price they were going for in 2004 in this area. I bought in that area in 2000 and have lived in San Diego since 1990, so I have a general feel for the county's price history. One last thing, I am now seeing multiple open house and for sale signs on corners, we are not hurting for inventory, it is growing.
49   mell   ignore (2)   2018 Apr 28, 9:59pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

lostand confused says
bob2356 says
If bush hadn't cut taxes, slashed regulations on the financial industry, and raised government spending that wouldn't have happened

Par for the course. Who signed the repeal of Glass-Steagall?


Who gives a crap? Booms and busts happen all the time and to blame them on regulation or no regulation is foolish. There is only exactly one problem, and that is the interference of the FED/government forcing taxpayers to pay up for the faults of others, banks and homeowners. Just let the booms and busts play out and the market will regulate itself. Just enough with the socialism, nobody wants to end up like Venezuela.
50   PrivilegedtobeWhite   ignore (1)   2018 Apr 29, 8:08am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Malcolm says
Either somebody got a deal, or this is the beginning of severe pricing discounts in San Diego County.



This house sold for $205 per foot. It is 70s construction, but it looks like it was somewhat updated. For comparison, I sold for over $400 a foot for $445K last November. My house was under 1,100 square feet. 80s construction, but not even as nice as this house.
Better charge your phone
51   Strategist   ignore (3)   2018 Apr 29, 10:07am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Malcolm says
We'll have to see. A valid sale is hardly anecdotal evidence. If you look, the reason isn't lack of inventory, it is lack of sales at the lower level. This is significant because it shows what the smaller houses are potentially worth. The median price will go up, just like last time, but it is misleading, because it is reflecting discounted larger homes and a drop in the smaller ones. You are also corroborating my observations that sales are down 6-10%. That's actually pretty significant. I can show you pages of larger homes selling between 200-300 per square foot. When smaller homes sell for 200 a foot, like this one did, that is the price they were going for in 2004 in this area. I bought in that area in 2000 and have lived in San Diego since 1990, so I have a general feel for the county's price history. One last thing, I am now seeing multiple open house and for sale signs on corners, we are not hurting for inventory, it is growing.


No one will sell a $545,000 house for $380,000 unless it's a fixer upper, has earthquake damage, structural problems, inter family transactions or some other issue.
Find me a genuine deal like this and I will give you a $20,000 finders fee.
52   Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 May 1, 6:18pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Strategist says
No one will sell a $545,000 house for $380,000 unless it's a fixer upper, has earthquake damage, structural problems, inter family transactions or some other issue.
Find me a genuine deal like this and I will give you a $20,000 finders fee.


It looked nice in the pictures. Like I've noted before, the dollars per square foot are not that surprising on larger homes, so this one surprised even me. I doubt you'll pay a finders fee simply because I don't think that house will be considered a bargain in the coming months. I think it is going to be pretty much standard for that type of house.
53   Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 May 25, 8:46am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Here is a very drastic example of discounting. Large homes are a bargain in my area. Homes like these are keeping median prices up, but the market is continuing to weaken in San Diego County. This house sold for $139 a foot.

54   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 May 25, 9:13am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

lostand confused says
bob2356 says
If bush hadn't cut taxes, slashed regulations on the financial industry, and raised government spending that wouldn't have happened

Par for the course. Who signed the repeal of Glass-Steagall?


Agreed. Clinton was a DINO and sided with Republicans on this repeal. If you want real financial regulation you need to vote for a real Dem.

You've already seen what Trump does--he's repealed and killed all financial regulation to help his Wall St. buddies.
55   Strategist   ignore (3)   2018 May 25, 9:33am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Malcolm says
Here is a very drastic example of discounting. Large homes are a bargain in my area. Homes like these are keeping median prices up, but the market is continuing to weaken in San Diego County. This house sold for $139 a foot.


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/home-values-are-skyrocketing-at-the-fastest-pace-since-2006-2018-05-24
Home values are skyrocketing at the fastest pace since 2006

--------
Dear Malcolm,
I hereby raise the finders fee I am willing to pay, to $25,000, to anyone who can find me a deal like the one you mention in post 53.
Strategist
56   DASKAA   ignore (3)   2018 May 25, 9:52am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Strategist says
--------
Dear Malcolm,
I hereby raise the finders fee I am willing to pay, to $25,000, to anyone who can find me a deal like the one you mention in post 53.
Strategist


Yeah, something feels off there. $700K is on par with what one of my relatives paid in that general area in 2010 for a similar-sized house which hasn't even been built yet. I mean, if we were back to 2010 prices it would be all over the news 24x7.
57   BradK   ignore (0)   2018 May 25, 10:31am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Malcolm says
Here is a very drastic example of discounting. Large homes are a bargain in my area. Homes like these are keeping median prices up, but the market is continuing to weaken in San Diego County. This house sold for $139 a foot.

Interesting. I've had my eye on San Diego proper for quite some time. Last year was hot, this year is insane. Right back to bubble land with no signs of slowing, only a constrained inventory. I'm seeing sales from the last 90 days with average $/sq. ft. ranging from $365 all the way out in Tiierrasanta up to $551 in North Park (which is still kinda scuzzy in parts).

Case-Shiller is always a good data point. And this is a great site, which focuses a bit more on North County than the city.

http://www.bubbleinfo.com/2018/04/24/san-diego-case-shiller-index-february-2/

Another great SD site: https://piggington.com/
58   MrBark   ignore (0)   2018 May 25, 1:18pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

If you look at the sales record of my home, it would be over $100k less than the market value at the time since like other have pointed out, it is a family transaction. I'm sure my neighbors hate me for bringing down their comps.
59   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 May 25, 1:19pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

MrBark says
If you look at the sales record of my home, it would be over $100k less than the market value at the time since like other have pointed out, it is a family transaction. I'm sure my neighbors hate me for bringing down their comps.


Appraisers know to not include those sales. It won't affect them.
60   Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 May 25, 2:58pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I can show plenty of closed listings in the 200-300 per sf. It is only the gems that are selling and many are discounted. The wages don’t support the prices. I’m even going to start looking for a nice urban/rural property. These larger homes could easily house a studio rental no need to offer me a finder’s fee, I’m most likely the competition for the right property.

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The Housing Trap
You're being set up to spend your life paying off a debt you don't need to take on, for a house that costs far more than it should. The conspirators are all around you, smiling to lure you in, carefully choosing their words and watching your reactions as they push your buttons, anxiously waiting for the moment when you sign the papers that will trap you and guarantee their payoff. Don't be just another victim of the housing market. Use this book to defend your freedom and defeat their schemes. You can win the game, but first you have to learn how to play it.
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