patrick.net

That list for 2023 will Have Portland and Seattle. We're leaving San Diego, again. Housing's more than I'm willing to pay, and renting always makes that choice easy.

https://www.ocregister.com/2023/04/10/california-apartment-vacancies-near-2-year-high-as-rents-off-3-5-from-peak/
Don't have a non-paywall link, but 12ft io works

California apartment vacancies near 2-year high as rents slip 3.5% from peak

Vacancy rate rose to 5.2% in March, the highest level since April 2021

A significant winner in California’s real estate chill is the renter.

The post-pandemic return to normalcy that’s decelerated California housing markets is forcing landlords statewide to compete for tenants. Meanwhile, renters are seeing the most available units in nearly two years.

Consider what my trusty spreadsheet found within ApartmentList’s March report on California rents.

The statewide vacancy rate rose to 5.2% in March, the highest level since April 2021 and a noteworthy jump from the 3.6% pandemic-era low in September-November 2021.

Those extra options are a key reason why March’s overall statewide rent fell to $1,930 a month, down 3.5% (or $70) from August 2022’s peak. Yes, that’s still not affordable for numerous Californians, and it’s still up 15% (or $253) in three years.

But at least if the price isn’t right for a tenant, they have more options.

Lots of factors are cutting demand for apartments. The fear of catching COVID-19 in crowded living arrangements has dropped. The return of workers to the office and children to classrooms has limited the need for additional home office or study space. And the previously soaring rents may have some apartment hunters rethinking their search in uncertain economic times.

Plus, developers saw 2021’s landlord-friendly conditions of rising rents and few vacancies and rushed to build. Statewide permits for multifamily housing totaled 106,000 in 2021-22 – a huge jump from the 71,000 average for two-year periods in the previous 30 years. So, landlords will have to fill up those new units, too.

And don’t forget that these trends – notably new supply of rentals coming online – occur as California’s population is shrinking. And even the in-state migration from bigger coastal cities toward inland regions that sped up in the crazy pandemic days is also cooling.

It all adds up to California looking more renter-friendly for many months to come.

zzyzzx says

Chicago is true, but they're not all moving out of state. It kills Chicago, but has little impact statewide. And yes, some do move out of state, but it's not like what it was 10-15 years ago. They're just getting out of the city moving south, west and north from Chicago. Call them stupid, but Millennials with kids are smart enough to get out of cities.

https://www.sfgate.com/local/article/kelly-moore-paints-moving-hq-texas-17912812.php

Paint retailer Kelly Moore moving headquarters from Bay Area to Texas

https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2023/05/04/californias-population-declined-again-last-year-n548474

https://www.breitbart.com/entertainment/2023/05/05/actor-scott-baio-leaving-california-after-45-years-its-not-a-safe-place-anymore/

Actor Scott Baio Leaving California After 45 Years: ‘It’s Not a Safe Place Anymore’

Any famous or rich person who gives a reason besides taxes for departing California is lying.

California is superior to most states in most ways; it's just taxing people too much.

Patrick says

https://www.breitbart.com/entertainment/2023/05/05/actor-scott-baio-leaving-california-after-45-years-its-not-a-safe-place-anymore/

Actor Scott Baio Leaving California After 45 Years: ‘It’s Not a Safe Place Anymore’

California has a lot of stupid laws that have nothing to do with taxes.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/california-report-shows-exodus-continues-los-angeles-lost-the-most-people_5261733.html?src_src=morningbriefnoe&src_cmp=mb-2023-05-13&utm_source=share-btn-copylink

California Report Shows Exodus Continues, Los Angeles Lost the Most People

May 12, 2023

Population declines continue to plague the Golden State, with a newly released report detailing the losses. While some areas in the Central Valley and Inland Empire saw growth, Southern California led the way in departures.

The state’s population dipped .4 percent from January 2022 compared to the same time this year, falling below 39 million residents for the first time since 2015, according to the California Department of Finance.

Recent declines are unprecedented in the state’s history, with data showing growth every year from 1900 until 2020—when nearly 1 percent of residents chose to leave during the height of pandemic restrictions—and declines have persisted since. ...

High taxes, burdensome regulations, unaffordable housing costs, and increasing crime rates are the oft repeated reasons for those choosing to flee the state, according to experts.

Also consider the attempts by the state to turn kids trans or gay with flags and other propaganda in classrooms and teachers who tell their students to hide this indoctrination from their parents.

Any current stats on current income and how that has changed adjusted for inflation?

This is all I could find from last year:
California's average weekly wage dropped by $10 in a year – or 0.6% – to $1,572 for the April-to-June quarter. The top gain nationally was in Idaho, up 8.5%, followed by Vermont at 8.1%, Maine at 8%, Montana at 7.4% and Georgia and Utah at 7.2%.Nov 26, 2022

How far inland do you have to be in Florida to be "safe" from hurricanes and not have huge insurance costs?

I'm wondering if I might set up my retirement to be a snowbird in FL and summers in Idaho.

The solution is to live 3-4 mlles inland.

The nice thing about Florida are the beach and boating; the best ocean conditions are along the Atlantic where the Gulf Stream passes by close to shore. The Gulf Stream is warm, clear water.

clambo says

The solution is to live 3-4 mlles inland.

I would think that you would want a minimum elevation above sea level as well.

There's little change in elevation but you can avoid areas which are known to have been evacuated or flooded, etc.

clambo says

There's little change in elevation but you can avoid areas which are known to have been evacuated or flooded, etc.

I'll take 23 ft before I'd take 12. This is based on looking around

RedStar says

I'm wondering if I might set up my retirement to be a snowbird in FL and summers in Idaho.

You stole my idea! Except maybe Spring and Fall in TX.

just_passing_through says

RedStar says

I'm wondering if I might set up my retirement to be a snowbird in FL and summers in Idaho.

You stole my idea! Except maybe Spring and Fall in TX.

Great minds think alike! I have little experience with Texas but I am in love with Idaho and Montana.Already have the house in Idaho, need the winter one soon.

https://calmatters.org/commentary/2022/08/california-is-leaking-vital-high-income-taxpayers/

IN SUMMARY

California is losing population and some of those leaving the state are high-income taxpayers who provide a huge share of the state’s revenues.

After 170 years of population growth — occasionally explosive growth — California is now experiencing population loss for the first time.

As foreign immigration and birth rates declined, they no longer offset net losses in state-to-state migration. Since 2010, 7.5 million people have left California while 5.9 million people have come from other states.

That gives rise to a question: Who is leaving California and why? ...

California’s top income tax rate, 13.3% on taxable incomes over $1 million, is by far the nation’s highest and when added to the top federal rate of 37% pushes the overall bite to more than 50%. Moreover, a tax overhaul during the Donald Trump presidency basically ended the ability to deduct state income taxes on federal returns.

If anything, California’s taxes on the wealthy are likely to increase. Proposition 30, a measure on the November ballot, would boost the top marginal rate to over 15%, raising money for programs to battle climate change, and another tax hike is headed for the 2024 ballot.

The wealthy are quite capable of protecting themselves, including moving to another state. However, they are vitally important to California’s schools, health care and myriad other public services. Income taxes account for three-quarters of California’s general fund revenues and the top 1% of California taxpayers generate nearly half of those taxes.

That’s just 150,000 taxpayers in a state of 40 million, so even a trickle of departures has a potentially huge impact on the budget.

Patrick says

That’s just 150,000 taxpayers in a state of 40 million, so even a trickle of departures has a potentially huge impact on the budget.

Been saying it. You guys will likely be fine. But the quality of living is going to go to absolute shit. The climate and scenery is too good that people will stick it out. But the people with millions of dollars that can move to Scottsdale, AZ, Texas, FL, etc. they will.

CA is late to the party and it's going to take a massive toll as the article mentions on tax revenue. Cuts and tax raises are coming. Look at the IL and specifically Chicago playbook for exodus. You're going to be stuck with a bunch of poor, service sector workers that don't pay taxes.

Patrick says

Lol. Uhaul is the best metric in my opinion for many things, mainly migration within the country. Your city losing population and the city you're moving into that could be in a bubble and you're buying at peak.

We have two small Uhaul gas station type setups. For 7 years they basically just stopped operating them. Now we have a surplus of trucks. All of this is obvious and visible. People are moving to rural areas in my region is my anecdotal evidence since I can see it. That means there's a lot of one way movers put it that way. The trucks keep stacking up. But I think it's in state migration. Say from Oak Park, IL or Chicago to my area. Hell my newish neighbor is a Puerto Rican from Humboldt Park, Chicago

I'm trying to figure out storage units as well. We've had limited new building, 5 houses in a decade, but we have a shit load of storage unit increase over the last 2-3 years in a small town. 30-40 unit increase with no new building basically. It's confusing. I can see the locks. It's at 100% occupancy. $75/mo-$125/mo for about 100 units. Maybe people just have more shit.

clambo says

Any famous or rich person who gives a reason besides taxes for departing California is lying.

California is superior to most states in most ways; it's just taxing people too much.

The vaccine mandate bullshit was the final straw for me, but I already had one foot out the door. I just used the mandates as an excuse to convince my family to leave. It's almost one year since we left San Diego for Tennessee, and I'm so fucking happy.

porkchopexpress says

"It's almost one year since we left San Diego for Tennessee, and I'm so fucking happy."

Great - we have a poster from Tennessee - the only state in the union where Ivermectin is an over the counter medication!
Porkchop, tell us about Ivermectin... Is it available in grocery stores? How much does it cost?

I ask because these kind of searches on the Internet are blocked.

The_Deplorable says

I ask because these kind of searches on the Internet are blocked.

You mean Google, right? Or are the honest search engines like https://search.brave.com/ and https://yandex.com/ also blocking those searches?

If so, this seems like an opportunity. I could have a thread about where to buy ivermectin and how much it costs.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/allstate-insurance-state-farm-california/

Allstate, one of the nation's largest insurance companies, has joined State Farm in deciding to halt sales of property and casualty coverage to new customers in California, saying it's too pricey to underwrite policies in the state which has seen thousands of natural disasters in recent years.

Allstate quietly stopped issuing new policies in California months ago, but didn't announce the move until Friday. Allstate was the fourth-largest insurer in California, according to the most recent 2021 state data. It earned $4.3 billion in premiums that year and incurred $2.6 billion in losses.

Patrick says

"You mean Google, right?"

Yes! And DuckDuckGo, Yahoo and Yandex. In fact there was no response from DuckDuckGo and Yandex (blocked?)

"If so, this seems like an opportunity. I could have a thread about where to buy ivermectin and how much it costs."

Patrick this is an excellent idea. Please do! We have a ton of medical research that proves that Ivermectin wipes out Covid, that it removes the Spike Proteins of the mRNA vaccines and (potentially) cures the vaccine injuries, medical reports that it cures some cancers and in a nutshell, this is an inexpensive and very safe medication!

The_Deplorable says

"there was no response from... Yandex (blocked?)"

I tried Yandex again and ended up with only one site -- https://www.ivermectin.com/order.php -- selling Ivermectin (it also sells HCQ and Azithromycin) with the following prices:

Ivermectin: 50 / 12 mg tablets for $115 -- $2.30 per tablet.
Ivermectin: 100 / 12 mg tablets for $190 -- $1.90 per tablet.

Hydroxychloroquine Sulfate (HCQ): 100 / 200 mg tablets for $250 -- $2.50 per tablet.

They also sell Azithromycin which is an antibiotic (that requires prescription) and this is a red flag for me.

It looks like we are still blocked from reaching the numerous websites in Tennessee that sell Ivermectin.

Patrick says

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/allstate-insurance-state-farm-california/

Allstate, one of the nation's largest insurance companies, has joined State Farm in deciding to halt sales of property and casualty coverage to new customers in California, saying it's too pricey to underwrite policies in the state which has seen thousands of natural disasters in recent years.

Allstate quietly stopped issuing new policies in California months ago, but didn't announce the move until Friday. Allstate was the fourth-largest insurer in California, according to the most recent 2021 state data. It earned $4.3 billion in premiums that year and incurred $2.6 billion in losses.

My home state homies are even moving out of CA. Although they may have pulled the plug on CA a year early. You guys are pretty saturated I thought? I don't know the fire game there. No one at either company looked at the snowpack? Trees/vegetation are gonna soak up a lot of run off I imagine. Less likelihood of fires from what I've heard.

We're in a semi drought here. Haven't had any real measurable rain in about 3 weeks. Less than 1/4". Outside of golf courses and rich people, we generally don't water here. Things are browning up pretty good right now lawn wise. 10 day forecast looks like shit too. One chance of rain. By the end of this week I think farmers are going to be freaking out a bit. I might start watering today as they're likely going to put odd/even day restrictions out which is rare. More for the water tower pressure, though grassland can catch on fire out here.

WookieMan says

We're in a semi drought here. Haven't had any real measurable rain in about 3 weeks. Less than 1/4". Outside of golf courses and rich people, we generally don't water here. Things are browning up pretty good right now lawn wise. 10 day forecast looks like shit too. One chance of rain.

It's the same in Maryland.

WookieMan says

Patrick says

That’s just 150,000 taxpayers in a state of 40 million, so even a trickle of departures has a potentially huge impact on the budget.

Been saying it. You guys will likely be fine. But the quality of living is going to go to absolute shit. The climate and scenery is too good that people will stick it out. But the people with millions of dollars that can move to Scottsdale, AZ, Texas, FL, etc. they will.

CA is late to the party and it's going to take a massive toll as the article mentions on tax revenue. Cuts and tax raises are coming. Look at the IL and specifically Chicago playbook for exodus. You're going to be stuck with a bunch of poor, service sector workers that don't pay taxes.

People who can move elsewhere and stay in California only for the weather are absolute fools. In Yiddish, a putz.

The crime, the homeless, the taxes, the amount of government regulations, all conspires to make California a worse place. The only people truly happy with the state of things are homos who are happy they can have PDA’s even though they rarely do, and blind leftists who haven’t yet been crime victims or are still dumb enough to believe the BLM chow meow and hope that a black man comes and rapes their spouse.

I can’t wait to leave. For starters my income tax in a no income tax state will be reduced to 40% of what I currently pay due to no state income tax and a lower gross income. That one is pretty huge. Owning firearms without having them registered and being able to conceal carry are also huge pluses. Not having to rent might be really nice as well. Would not be looking forward to moving if I was in my 70’s or 80’s. And having a place twice or three times the size of the place I currently rent would be great as well. Finally not having to worry about what stupid thing the state legislature can conjure up next will also be a huge win.

porkchopexpress says

clambo says

Any famous or rich person who gives a reason besides taxes for departing California is lying.

California is superior to most states in most ways; it's just taxing people too much.

The vaccine mandate bullshit was the final straw for me, but I already had one foot out the door. I just used the mandates as an excuse to convince my family to leave. It's almost one year since we left San Diego for Tennessee, and I'm so fucking happy.

Good for you. Yeah mandating a vaccine that doesn’t work as advertised only smacks of tyranny for tyranny’s sake. That’s one that still baffles me.

Patrick says

Allstate quietly stopped issuing new policies in California months ago, but didn't announce the move until Friday. Allstate was the fourth-largest insurer in California, according to the most recent 2021 state data. It earned $4.3 billion in premiums that year and incurred $2.6 billion in losses.

One arm of Global Corporatocracy informing another? Guess they have some flood and fire mayhem planned for California this year.

https://babylonbee.com/news/newsom-gets-revenge-on-desantis-by-continuing-to-send-thousands-of-californians-to-florida

https://slaynews.com/news/superman-reaches-limit-with-californias-soft-on-crime-policies-moves-to-nevada/

Dean Cain Reaches Limit with California’s Soft-on-Crime Policies, Moves to Nevada

Former Superman actor Dean Cain is the latest celebrity to tell California politicians to go pound sand.

Cain has moved out of the state over “terrible” policies that have led to surges in crime, taxes, and homelessness.

“I love California,” Cain said in a statement.

“It’s the most beautiful state.

“Everything’s wonderful about it except for the policies.

“The policies are just terrible.

“The fiscal policies, the soft-on-crime policies, the homelessness policies.

“The things that our leaders in California have been doing have driven out anybody who can really afford to get out.

“People are flocking out of there in droves. ...

Cain listed his Malibu home in March, selling the property for $6.25 million last month.

https://slaynews.com/news/rock-music-legend-rod-stewart-reaches-limit-with-toxic-los-angeles-moves-to-england-full-time-report/

Patrick says

https://slaynews.com/news/rock-music-legend-rod-stewart-reaches-limit-with-toxic-los-angeles-moves-to-england-full-time-report/

HELLUVA nice guy by the way.

Patrick says

https://slaynews.com/news/rock-music-legend-rod-stewart-reaches-limit-with-toxic-los-angeles-moves-to-england-full-time-report/

Rod Stewart came to America to avoid high British taxes. Maybe California taxes have reached or surpassed the British level so might as well go home.

HeadSet says

Patrick says

https://slaynews.com/news/rock-music-legend-rod-stewart-reaches-limit-with-toxic-los-angeles-moves-to-england-full-time-report/

Rod Stewart came to America to avoid high British taxes. Maybe California taxes have reached or surpassed the British level so might as well go home.

Never been, have no desire, but I can't imagine living in Britain isn't enjoyable outside of high incomes. He looks like a piece of bacon. He should move to Puerto Rico. Tax breaks there federally and territory wise. https://www.districtofcolumbiataxattorney.com/articles/tax-weary-americans-find-haven-in-puerto-rico/

Although you pay taxes in the states you play shows in now that I think about it. But Puerto Rico would be a good location to get that bacon looking crispier and save probably a lot of taxes for his level of wealth and age on investments/cap gains. During hurricane season just stay in CA renting for 3-4 months if not touring.

Sometimes wealthy people boggle my mind with how stupid they are. Hell Trump took this long to move to FL. He still likely draws an income and was paying NY and NYC income taxes on top of federal. Lebron James was an absolute dip shit for leaving the Miami Heat. I don't know Ohio taxes, but going to the Lakers was a financially retarded move. And they can't get to the finals. That's a different topic though.

I guess when you have fuck you money it's different, but saving $100-500M over a lifetime is kind of a lot. Rod Steward could probably buy/build one of the nicest properties in Puerto Rico and hurricane proof the fuck out of it and save potentially millions a year. Not that I'm super wealthy, but housing and specifically income taxes kept us from moving there. Both our jobs would be W-2. Ain't getting out taxes with those jobs.