patrick.net

just_dregalicious says

Usually fever is flu not cold but then again I'm not sure when it comes to kids.

I was nailed pretty good in mid-Jan as well. Thought it was the flu and work with a lot of people who travel back and forth to China a lot.

Could be!

I know you've mentioned respiratory issues and I'm not a doctor, so obviously stay safe. I'm admittedly biased right now because of vacation plans in the coming weeks (not Guam... yet). I just honestly think this has been spreading for a while if you look at time lines.

And the testing almost seems pointless now. Especially on the West Coast. It's almost certain that between even December to late January that 10's of thousands traveled between CA and China and probably thousands in Wuhan. I'm probably being conservative too. It's almost impossible for this not to be the case. Factor in the lunar new year for the Chinese... this shit is and probably has been everywhere for the last 30-45 days minimum.

I now have the luxury of getting my fucking temperature taken to board a ship and potentially be turned away from ports for something I suspect most people have been exposed to.

It doesn't transmit that easily with an R0 of 2, which is moderatley but not super high. The 21 days and survival on surfaces for days are extreme cases, as is the symptom less transmission. While it's possible it's unlikely. Most transmissions happen in direct and immediate contact. Don't forget it's cold and flu season and millions catch a cold or flu, doesn't mean it's CV. The best measures you can take i
are avoiding obviously sick people and never touching your face before washing your hands thoroughly and avoiding large gatherings. You can still get it if you follow those guidelines, but your chances are extremely slim. It's not easy not to touch your face and takes a bit of training.

HeadSet says

he demolished that demonrat idiot whose name I forgot during the VP debate before the 2016 election.

That was Tim Kaine, a Senator from my state.

Ah yes I remember now thanks. That guy was a quagmire.

WookieMan says

I know you've mentioned respiratory issues and I'm not a doctor, so obviously stay safe. I'm admittedly biased right now because of vacation plans in the coming weeks (not Guam... yet). I just honestly think this has been spreading for a while if you look at time lines.

Totally agree... Wasn't poking fun it really could have been. It was strange because it did not affect my sinuses at all which usually happens. I don't usually get the flu either though. But I do recall being relieved it seemed I wasn't going to get nailed because my nose was strangely fine.

I think it's overblown too. For most.

Lots of mistakes though. Lots. Not okay to blow it off because it kills the old mostly. Not okay to compare it to X because it's additive. But I don't think it's preventable. (see: below)

I've been sort of looking at it like this: Not much can take out society quickly. Nukes, Asteroid, EMP natural or otherwise/related, volcano-related, rampant disease (We're all inbred ~30th cousins, shit can take us out no problemo, we do see this in nature it just isn't shown on the Discovery Channel)

So I see this as sort of like a nuclear war where most of them were duds, some hit out in the middle of nowhere and didn't kill many. How did society/govts respond?

I'm pretty damn disappointed so far. Thinking that wild idea about retiring in BFE (maybe with yams and M134) isn't such a bad idea even if it is not close to a hospital. We haven't had billions of inbred on the planet very long.

Yeah, I was thinking about you when I heard on the radio the state is recommending no cruises! I canceled my Hawaii trip if it helps haha.

BTW, I was at Scripps Memorial Hospital today to meet with a surgeon to discuss the recliner (yes, furniture did it to me) injury I received and I noticed a male nurse using his sleeve to push elevator buttons. Then in radiology there were signs posted (no text) all over of people with masks on their faces. Surgeon fist bumped me.

Made me so happy!

recliner (yes, furniture did it to me) injury

Was that from a "Mr Bean" method of getting the recliner home from the furniture store? Or is that an electric recliner that went out of control and folded up on you "George Jetson" style?

Are you as Smart as a MIT scientist?

https://summit.news/2020/03/10/mit-scientist-claims-coronavirus-is-a-deep-state-fraud/

Zika - named for Zika Forest in Uganda
Ebola - named for Ebola River, Congo
MERS - Middle East Respiratory Syndome
Spanish Flu - Spain

Yet:
SARS - Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Corona Virus/Covid-19

Both emerged in East Asia.

RACIST!

Let's call it the Wu Ping Cough.

NoCoupForYou says

Zika - named for Zika Forest in Uganda
Ebola - named for Ebola River, Congo
MERS - Middle East Respiratory Syndome
Spanish Flu - Spain

Yet:
SARS - Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Corona Virus/Covid-19

Both emerged in East Asia.

RACIST!

Let's call it the Wu Ping Cough.

Hong Kong flu. But that was before Hong Kong fell under Commie rule.

MUST BE PC TOWARDS COMMIE FASCIST FUCKS!!!!

I think bass called it Kung Flu. I like that.

HeadSet says

Was that from a "Mr Bean" method of getting the recliner home from the furniture store? Or is that an electric recliner that went out of control and folded up on you "George Jetson" style?

Protip: Never use the decline feature on a relax the back gravity chair to stretch your shoulder.

Flu kills more people in an hour than this bogus virus.

NoCoupForYou says

Neither is the Coronavirus. It took weeks to get to 400+ cases.

And now at 1000+ cases. With the testing capacity of a third world nation.


mell says

Again, the new infection rate in the US has started to trend down since testing has been established.

Where do you see that?

The_Weeping_Ayatollah says

It's not necessary for more severe strain to kill the host in order to hamper it's spread: people infected with more severe strain would more likely stay home or be put into quarantine thus hampering propagation of the virus

This would also select deadly bugs with long incubation periods.
The reality is collaboration with hosts always beats killing the host. This is why symbiosis is so common in nature.

Still not understanding the hype.... If you've been slightly sick in the last 3 months, there was a decent chance it was CV. True urgency and awareness for this didn't start until early/mid Feb, with the first "reported" case in China being December. Think of the amount of travel to and from China in a month? There's 0% chance this wasn't spreading in the states by late December. Zero.

Again, this very much has likely been around as early as October in China and maybe earlier. The reaction that this is just NOW starting to spread is completely naive. Wouldn't be surprised to find out that 10-20% of the population has already had it.

Tim Aurora says

The_Weeping_Ayatollah says

Spanish Flu - Spain

Spanish Flu did not originate in Spain but in France

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

And? It's called the Spanish flu. It shares a border with France. There's an extremely high probability that in the early 1900's no one had a fucking clue where it came from. I think 99% of the population alive today would think it came from Spain. Who cares?

Coronavirus Conference Gets Canceled Because of Coronavirus

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-10/coronavirus-conference-gets-canceled-because-of-coronavirus

For comparison, here are two previous fu epidemics:



And here are some (already obsolete) stats on the current epidemic:

Tim Aurora says

The_Weeping_Ayatollah says

Spanish Flu - Spain

Spanish Flu did not originate in Spain but in France

And I didn't write what you quoted.

Patrick says

Coronavirus Conference Gets Canceled Because of Coronavirus

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-10/coronavirus-conference-gets-canceled-because-of-coronavirus

Almost like a quote from Babylon Bee

Heraclitusstudent says

And now at 1000+ cases. With the testing capacity of a third world nation.

How many people in the US right now do you think have the flu or common cold?

NoCoupForYou says

Heraclitusstudent says

And now at 1000+ cases. With the testing capacity of a third world nation.

How many people in the US right now do you think have the flu or common cold?

It's still growing linearly now that testing has ramped up. It's not true that testing is unavailable. They have been distributing enough tests to the states to test those that are sick (not the ones not showing symptoms). Asia continues to be on the downslope, Europe is mixed and likely close to experiencing the peak or at it. Same for the US.

Heraclitusstudent says

mell says

Again, the new infection rate in the US has started to trend down since testing has been established.

Where do you see that?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Used to grow by 30%+ the first few days when testing was established. Of course it's easier to get higher percentage when staring out low in the beginning, but it has now been around 25% flat per day. As testing has been catching up that's not too bad. Let's see where the day ends today.

Total Number of People that have or had Coronavirus in past few months: 10M
Total Number by Summer: 50M

Only confirmed cases are being published. Most went home, drank tea, vegged on the couch, and went back to work a few days later. Never went to doctor or hospital at all.

mell says

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Used to grow by 30%+ the first few days when testing was established. Of course it's easier to get higher percentage when staring out low in the beginning, but it has now been around 25% flat per day. As testing has been catching up that's not too bad. Let's see where the day ends today.

You have to believe the Chinese when they say they stopped the virus, at a time where it is spreading everywhere else.
Without that, the numbers you are looking at are just wrong.

Heraclitusstudent says

You have to believe the Chinese

LOL, LOL and ROTFLMAO on top of that.

Heraclitusstudent says

mell says

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Used to grow by 30%+ the first few days when testing was established. Of course it's easier to get higher percentage when staring out low in the beginning, but it has now been around 25% flat per day. As testing has been catching up that's not too bad. Let's see where the day ends today.

You have to believe the Chinese when they say they stopped the virus, at a time where it is spreading everywhere else.
Without that, the numbers you are looking at are just wrong.

Bullshit. The Chinese don't fuck around with the clampdowns. Their numbers are believable, plus the same trend is seen for other Asian countries. You can spout tinfoil hat stuff all day, we have direct contact with companies that work there. It's true that they're slowly going back to normal, you can see that by how the Asian stocks are behaving as well. It's the European and US indexes that have been under pressure lately, not the Asian ones.

Hong Kong is pretty much unaffected as of now.

WookieMan says

Heraclitusstudent says

It will just be slowed and minimized. The main problem initially will be the overwhelmed health services.

Not here.

People in Europe & Asia are mere barbarians compare to us. USA USA USA....

- Italy health services are overwhelmed:
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/03/11/italys-hospitals-overwhelmed-coronavirus-top-health-official-says-worst-yet-come-us

- well actually... turns out Italy has 3.18 hospital beds / 1000 people. vs 2.77 hospital beds / 1000 people in the US
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_OECD_countries_by_hospital_beds

The pressure is essentially off the Chinese now anyway. There will be repercussions potentially long term for China on the business side, but Italy locking down an entire country is the bigger news story at this point. There's no motivation anymore for the Chinese to lie anymore at this point (even though I still don't trust them).

mell says

The Chinese don't fuck around with the clampdowns. Their numbers are believable, plus the same trend is seen for other Asian countries.

Right. Remember they clampdown was mostly in 1 region. The virus is now spread in many places in China. They have 130 cities of more than 1 million people. Were they all locked down? Nope. Otherwise the economic damage would have been massive. And everywhere else it spreads silently in communities, but in China they miraculously catch all the new cases.... Maybe they do, but I have my doubts. Maybe they just decided, "ok we lost, we'll just slow it down and stop counting cases and claim victory in the meantime".

WookieMan says

There's no motivation anymore for the Chinese to lie anymore at this point (even though I still don't trust them).

What would be the motivation to continue to show the cases growing in their country: 200k, 1million?
It would be a daily display of impotence.

Stopped. Snap. Just like that.

Heraclitusstudent says

What would be the motivation to continue to show the cases growing in their country: 200k, 1million?
It would be a daily display of impotence.

People testing positive really means nothing. If they have 500M tested cases and 20k dead at the end of this, it's no worse than the flu.

This is just like peanut allergies in my opinion. YOU have to self quarantine if you have respiratory or health issues. It's not up to the rest of the world to bend over backwards for your ailment. Isn't this common sense?

I feel for the people that have these issues themselves and/or relatives that do too, but it's not everyone else's problem. My old man didn't "catch" cancer, it just happened. Unfortunately I don't have others to blame like this virus. People gotta stop pointing fingers. Self quarantine yourself if you have any concerns. Simple as that.

The hype on this literally is going to kill more people due to economic reason than the actual virus. I won't be able to prove it, but we get a shitload of meds from China. If there's a shortage of just one, there's could be hundreds of deaths.

Heraclitusstudent says

Right. Remember they clampdown was mostly in 1 region. The virus is now spread in many places in China. They have 130 cities of more than 1 million people. Were they all locked down? Nope. Otherwise the economic damage would have been massive. And everywhere else it spreads silently in communities, but in China they miraculously catch all the new cases.... Maybe they do, but I have my doubts. Maybe they just decided, "ok we lost, we'll just slow it down and stop counting cases and claim victory in the meantime".

At least a Million people already have or had it. Probably millions. John Hopkins is only posting Confirmed Cases.

Heraclitusstudent says

WookieMan says

There's no motivation anymore for the Chinese to lie anymore at this point (even though I still don't trust them).

What would be the motivation to continue to show the cases growing in their country: 200k, 1million?
It would be a daily display of impotence.

If you want to just use tinfoil hat numbers instead of numbers given for EVERY country - even if some don't report totally accurately - then there's nothing to discuss since it's up to everyone's personal opinion.

Looks like we're coming in around 24% again, Italy is showing some promise at 18.5% new infections, Germany 21%, rest of Europe between 10% and 30%, Asia continues to level off fast, also Iran is starting to show a slowdown. It's mainly the US and Europe right now, in the US the 2 worst hit states by far are Washington and NYC, followed by CA which seems to be slowing down as well amid newly announced lockdowns.

Just in, no European travel to USA for 30 days!

ForcedTQ says

Just in, no European travel to USA for 30 days!

Those are good measures to contain the spread, but it begs the question why they didn't do that in 2009 during the swine flu pandemic which infected and killed far far more people than this likely will. The lamestream media is in panic mode hoping to hurt the Prez and to distract from Biden's dementia and cokehead Hunter's Shenanigans.