patrick.net

:
Heraclitusstudent says

This is how social distancing works. The important point is: it isn't meant to protect you, but the herd.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

That was interesting. Thankfully WaPo didn't block me. New month perhaps or is it the importance of the topic - and they make it available to all ?

Note: the brown area represents the number of people that get the CV. With moderate distancing the peak is later, giving the health care system more time to deal with it, spreading the near fatal cases out and time for competing Flu cases to fall, increasing capacity of ICUs etc. But the brown area isn't that much smaller.

Looks like we're coming in around 22% new infections of total. Considering that testing is ramping up that's pretty good. I think currently negativity and panic is prevailing. The peak is close.

NoCoupForYou says

Facts about the H1N1 virus in 2009. Similar if not more intense, Media did not hype to the moon.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html

From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus.

The H1N1 flu might be a reasonable analogy:

In June 2009, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the new strain of swine-origin H1N1 as a pandemic. This novel virus spread worldwide and had caused 18,500 laboratory-confirmed deaths with an estimated 151,700 to 575,400 deaths total[3][4] by August of 2010. On 10 August 2010, the World Health Organization declared the H1N1 influenza pandemic over, saying worldwide flu activity had returned to typical seasonal patterns.[5]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H1N1

Going to try to look up H1N1 death rate by age...

Huh, looks like H1N1 was actually deadlier than coronavirus:

Nov. 3, 2009 - H1N1 swine flu isn't always severe, but when it's bad, it's really bad. Patients hospitalized with pandemic flu have an 11% fatality rate, data from California suggest.

The pandemic flu bug is far more likely to strike younger people. But when people aged 50 and older get hospitalized with H1N1 swine flu, their case-fatality rate is the highest of any group: 18% to 20%.

https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/news/20091103/h1n1-swine-flu-deadly-in-all-age-groups#1

Starting to think that shutting down planet earth is in fact quite a hysterical overreaction.

Patrick says

Starting to think that shutting down planet earth is in fact quite a hysterical overreaction.

Boom! Spot on.

It's all starting to sound very familiar:

https://www.foxnews.com/story/a-timeline-of-events-in-the-swine-flu-outbreak

Vice President Joe Biden is arguing that there would be no practical benefit in shutting down the country's border with Mexico.

Lol, of course not. Biden is all for exporting US jobs to Mexico, even now.

Patrick says

Huh, looks like H1N1 was actually deadlier than coronavirus:

Yet to be determined.

If the numbers are anywhere close in fatalaties, after this social distancing move, then we know CV is/was way worse.

Patrick says

Starting to think that shutting down planet earth is in fact quite a hysterical overreaction.

Is that what we're doing ?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic

It is estimated that 11–21% of the then global population (of about 6.8 billion), or around 700 million–1.4 billion people, contracted the illness — more in absolute terms than the Spanish flu pandemic,[3][6] with about 150,000–575,000 fatalities.[7] A follow-up study done in September 2010 showed that the 2009 H1N1 flu was no more severe than the yearly seasonal flu.[8]

Unlike most strains of influenza, H1N1 does not disproportionately infect adults older than 60 years; this was an unusual and characteristic feature of the H1N1 pandemic.[9] Even in the case of previously very healthy people, a small percentage develop pneumonia or acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). This manifests itself as increased breathing difficulty and typically occurs three to six days after initial onset of flu symptoms.[10][11]

Seems like H1N1 ("swine flu") was scarier in that it killed young people more. Old people have always been killed by flus.

:
This years flu (not Covfid 19) will kill more and most recent years flu killed WAY WAY WAY more people than H1N1

So basically you're completely wrong. It was actually below average for recent years.

Patrick says

Huh, looks like H1N1 was actually deadlier than coronavirus:

https://www.wired.com/2009/06/apocalypse-not-behind-swine-flu-hysteria/

Looks like swine flu may have been deadlier, but it was not as easily transmitted.

:
If you were right, it would only be in the sense that flu in general that we get every year may be more deadly than the CV (but we don't know that ! ) . And I guess HIN1 or it's variants may have been the reason for the big recent years flu deaths. But at least people can get vaccines for that.

Models are all over the map for the CV numbers. We just don't know. Where as H1N1 was basically just another flu bug. Kind of typical in terms of severity, and as I said, actually far less deadly than the flu in recent years.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51895873

Every Briton over the age of 70 will be told "within the coming weeks" to stay at home for an extended period to protect themselves from coronavirus.

When it happens, they will be asked to stay home for "a very long time", Health Secretary Matt Hancock said.

@WookieMan looks like the British are going to implement your idea.

Patrick says

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51895873

Every Briton over the age of 70 will be told "within the coming weeks" to stay at home for an extended period to protect themselves from coronavirus.

When it happens, they will be asked to stay home for "a very long time", Health Secretary Matt Hancock said.

@WookieMan looks like the British are going to implement your idea.

About fucking time someone got woke. They need to be isolated until a vaccine can be created. In the meantime the rest of society CANNOT shut the fuck down like it is.

I'm talking about the richest nation in the fucking world. Half of people live pay check to pay check with zero savings. We can't just shut this down like we have... and this has nothing to do with politics. We know it's killing 15% or so of old, unhealthy people. Put them the fuck away.

We're probably already over the edge, but we're likely in a massive recession at this point and potentially depression. I feel like I'm usually level headed here with my comments, but we're going down fucktard street with no brakes on the short bus.

Can't quote or cite a source on this as it's word of mouth from DC. This is going to get much worse before it gets better in ways people don't understand. Stay safe. I really, really want to be wrong on this call so you all can bash me later. I'm not going to tell you what to do, but this will go down as a bigger event than 9/11 or Pearl Harbor. I am not a prepper or gun owner. Those that are will likely be in better shape than me, but I also live in the rural midwest. Watch your backs in the coastal/populated areas is all I'll say.

By early April all sorts of shit is going to hit the fan if what I hear and feel is correct. The virus is the cause, but it's the reaction that is going to be the catalyst of major events. And please call me out if I'm wrong. No intention of creating hype or concern, but be prepared as you can for 30-60 days of bull shit.

Normal isn't happening anytime soon.

I like you Wookie, but you are completely wrong on this and more than a tad hysterical.

A model of the predicted timeline of the disease from http://perkinslab.weebly.com/uploads/2/5/6/2/25629832/perkins_etal_sarscov2.pdf

WookieMan says

am not a prepper or gun owner.

There is no excuse for the latter. What's wrong with you?

CovfefeButDeadly says

I like you Wookie, but you are completely wrong on this and more than a tad hysterical.

I appreciate the honesty. I want to be wrong so you know. Air travel is going to be shut down soon from my sources. Likely longer than 9/11. Again, I hope my source is shit and I'm wrong.

Shitloads of businesses are going to go under if this response isn't recalibrated. And it likely won't be.

WookieMan says

Shitloads of businesses are going to go under if this response isn't recalibrated. And it likely won't be.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/guid/ca4c0226-6713-11ea-9596-8a889527719f

“They are throwing money in the wrong place,” Bair said of an unprecedented move by the Fed on Sunday to slash benchmark rates to zero and start a $700 billion Treasury- and mortgage-bond buying program.

“This isn’t a financial crisis — at least not yet,” she told MarketWatch on Sunday evening following the Fed’s announcement, which drops the target U.S. benchmark rate to zero and aims to shore up liquidity for banks and investors in the $15.6 trillion Treasury and $8.5 trillion agency mortgage bonds markets.

“Lowering interest rates to zero doesn’t help if businesses can’t pay their loans back and they don’t have cash flow,” she said. “We need to get help out there, especially to small businesses and people already losing their jobs.”

TEOTWAWKI says

WookieMan says

am not a prepper or gun owner.

There is no excuse for the latter. What's wrong with you?

I'm an idiot. Had a FOID card for years so I've always been able to get one. Kids kind of deterred me, but I'm likely going tomorrow to resolve this situation. Got recommendations from my army buddy. Also have a good neighbor friend that I could grab ammo and multiple guns from, so it's not like I'm sitting out here naked.

I'm also in an area where that type of mass hysteria is minimal. I worry about cities and urban areas. As things get locked down, crime in the ghetto is gonna get hot. Might get to the point cops just back out of areas.

Patrick says

WookieMan says

Shitloads of businesses are going to go under if this response isn't recalibrated. And it likely won't be.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/guid/ca4c0226-6713-11ea-9596-8a889527719f

“They are throwing money in the wrong place,” Bair said of an unprecedented move by the Fed on Sunday to slash benchmark rates to zero and start a $700 billion Treasury- and mortgage-bond buying program.

“This isn’t a financial crisis — at least not yet,” she told MarketWatch on Sunday evening following the Fed’s announcement, which drops the target U.S. benchmark rate to zero and aims to shore up liquidity for banks and investors in the $15.6 trillion Treasury and $8.5 trillion agency mortgage bonds markets.

“Lowering interest rates to zero doesn’t help if businesses can’...

It's a cashflow crisis that turns into a financial crisis. Just not right away.

I think I've said it here, my cruise cancelled. I can get a future cruise credit worth 125% of the purchase price or a 100% cash refund. Guess what, can't request the refund until March 23. I don't think they have the cash on hand to manage this along with all the people cancelling 60-120 days out where they already have their cash. It's a ponzi scheme in essence and now that the future cruisers are bailing, they don't have the cash to reimburse. I hope I'm wrong.

Remember, this is spring break time people. Summer is a long period, but besides X-mas, spring break is probably #2 or 3 for jacking up prices and making huge $$$$. Airlines and travel industry is getting fucking smashed. Then domino it down to the local economies of rental cars, Ubers, restaurants, hotels, etc. and shit ain't good.

Slightly off the current topic. But, china had massive outbreak in a country of 1 billion with a delayed containment effort. They claim only somewhere around 70,000 cases, 3000 deaths in their country. Italy is already up to around 1000 in a few weeks, Iran is close, the death rates in other countries seem to be advancing pretty fast. Doesn’t it seem hard to believe China only had 3000 deaths in their country. The level of reaction in their country, the extent of the clamp down, all suggest that it was a much more serious situation than 3000 deaths. Seems to me this is much more deadly than China has admitted and the uninformed populations of the world are starting to find out right now. I don’t want this to be true at all. But the numbers in China don’t make sense based on what’s happened since it left China. Also, it’s possible that the United States and other governments are well aware of this, they eventually figured it out, and that’s why there is such an extreme reaction by the governments of the world to try to contain it, and they are trying to prevent panic by covering up the actual death toll in China.

PaisleyPattern says

Also, it’s possible that the United States and other governments are well aware of this, they eventually figured it out, and that’s why there is such an extreme reaction by the governments of the world to try to contain it, and they are trying to prevent panic by covering up the actual death toll in China.

I don't even think the Chinese know what's going on in China unfortunately. There's a reason these fucking virus' seem to keep coming from there.

I'm a dick, but wanted to mention it. Paragraph breaks help. Hard to read. Consider it constructive criticism and if you want to be a dick to me, whatever, I can handle it.

PaisleyPattern says

Slightly off the current topic. But, china had massive outbreak in a country of 1 billion with a delayed containment effort. They claim only somewhere around 70,000 cases, 3000 deaths in their country. Italy is already up to around 1000 in a few weeks, Iran is close, the death rates in other countries seem to be advancing pretty fast. Doesn’t it seem hard to believe China only had 3000 deaths in their country. The level of reaction in their country, the extent of the clamp down, all suggest that it was a much more serious situation than 3000 deaths. Seems to me this is much more deadly than China has admitted and the uninformed populations of the world are starting to find out right now. I don’t want this to be true at all. But the numbers in China don’t make sense based on what’s happened since it left China. Also, it’s possible that the United States and other governments are well aware of this, they eventually figured it out, and that’s why there is such an extreme reaction by the g...

This is tinfoil hat conspiracy. China is not a closed off country and working with the WHO. The reason China got better so rapidly is that they don't fuck around, their containment policy is much harsher than the West cause they don't have to worry about "human rights" or being called racist. They're not covering up anything we know workers there who are all slowly but surely returning to work. Whether one thinks it's necessary or not, the fact is containment works.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2020/03/16/coronavirus-lockdown-may-have-saved-77000-lives-in-china-just-from-pollution-reduction/amp/

Wookie, No offense taken, I’ll take it as constructive criticism, I’m really just trying to make a point and get some feedback because it’s something that I have researched quite extensively and it seems to make a lot of sense to me.

My theory that the number of dead in China is much higher than publicly being reported is supported by
1/ the extent of China’s reaction,
2/the number of dead already, outside of China,
3/ the extreme reactions by governments, especially the United States, now, to try to control it.

Also, I have been following this thread all along, and your attitude has changed dramatically in the last day to one of extreme panic, whereas earlier you were definitely in the camp that this whole thing is overblown.

Do you still think that the fatalities are going to be minor, but that that the economic consequences of the over reaction will be the real problem?

mell says

PaisleyPattern says

Slightly off the current topic. But, china had massive outbreak in a country of 1 billion with a delayed containment effort. They claim only somewhere around 70,000 cases, 3000 deaths in their country. Italy is already up to around 1000 in a few weeks, Iran is close, the death rates in other countries seem to be advancing pretty fast. Doesn’t it seem hard to believe China only had 3000 deaths in their country. The level of reaction in their country, the extent of the clamp down, all suggest that it was a much more serious situation than 3000 deaths. Seems to me this is much more deadly than China has admitted and the uninformed populations of the world are starting to find out right now. I don’t want this to be true at all. But the numbers in China don’t make sense based on what’s happened since it left China. Also, it’s possible that the United States and other governments are well aware of this...

Well, I hope you’re right , I’m not immune to tinfoil type thoughts. I still don’t really understand why China would’ve reacted so extremely and threatened their whole economic stability over a disease that eventually only killed 3000 people. It’s possible that they realized it could’ve had a much greater impact I suppose and they stopped it in time.

PaisleyPattern says

mell says

PaisleyPattern says

Slightly off the current topic. But, china had massive outbreak in a country of 1 billion with a delayed containment effort. They claim only somewhere around 70,000 cases, 3000 deaths in their country. Italy is already up to around 1000 in a few weeks, Iran is close, the death rates in other countries seem to be advancing pretty fast. Doesn’t it seem hard to believe China only had 3000 deaths in their country. The level of reaction in their country, the extent of the clamp down, all suggest that it was a much more serious situation than 3000 deaths. Seems to me this is much more deadly than China has admitted and the uninformed populations of the world are starting to find out right now. I don’t want this to be true at all. But the numbers in China don’t make sense based on what’s happened since it left China. Also, ...

For them with so much pollution and so many smokers the fallout would have been unbearable, losing factory workers en masse. So a hard curfew / lockdown for a few weeks was a good decision on their part. It will work in Italy and Spain as well now that people can't go out at all and can only be in numbers of two at the grocery store at the same time and are only allowed to leave house for emergencies and groceries. This is a serious illness mainly due to its high R0 so of you want to save your elderly and prevent spread these measures are necessary. Wookie is right though if you would toss morals aside it would prob be better for the youth to keep running the country and quarantine the old instead. We're sort of doing the opposite. Either way the measures enacted by many states will slow the spread.

mell says

PaisleyPattern says

mell says

PaisleyPattern says

Slightly off the current topic. But, china had massive outbreak in a country of 1 billion with a delayed containment effort. They claim only somewhere around 70,000 cases, 3000 deaths in their country. Italy is already up to around 1000 in a few weeks, Iran is close, the death rates in other countries seem to be advancing pretty fast. Doesn’t it seem hard to believe China only had 3000 deaths in their country. The level of reaction in their country, the extent of the clamp down, all suggest that it was a much more serious situation than 3000 deaths. Seems to me this is much more deadly than China has admitted and the uninformed populations of the world are starting to find out right now. I don’t want this to be true at all. But...

As I understand it, the current approach by the CDC in the US is to slow the spread of the virus so that the number of cases won’t overwhelm our healthcare capacity. The CDC is assuming that there is no way no way prevent the eventual exposure of the entire population to the virus, with the eventual infection of 40 to 70% of the population.

Their goal is just to slow it down so that there will be smaller numbers of sick people in the healthcare system at any given time, and also this will give the pharmaceutical companies time to develop treatments , and possibly a vaccine, and to build up medical supplies and devices which will be necessary to handle the number of sick and dying people. Even if only 50% of the country eventually gets infected, that would mean more than two million deaths.That sounds pretty substantial to me. No one in the CDC is claiming that we will be able to prevent widespread infection.

PaisleyPattern says

Do you still think that the fatalities are going to be minor, but that that the economic consequences of the over reaction will be the real problem?

I haven't really cared about the fatalities in all honesty. In the grand scheme of world population, it's not going to be a big deal at all.

The economic consequences will most certainly kill more people. I still think we're overreacting 100%. But, at this point if we're going to overreact let's go full retard I guess is my point of view in the timeline of events, hence my change of tone in the last 24 hours.

I also don't have much choice as the reaction is government mandated. Starting tomorrow I cannot go have lunch at a bar here in IL. Have a flight scheduled for Saturday, but realistically know that it's going to be cancelled and have decent info that domestic air is going to be grounded.

The second we knew this was out there, we should have isolated the older folks. They'll lie, but the WHO and CDC have know about this since October or November. They were hoping it wasn't a big deal and it backfired. Same with China.

PaisleyPattern says

3/ the extreme reactions by governments, especially the United States, now, to try to control it.

In an overly litigious society, one should not be surprised at an over reaction.

PaisleyPattern says

china had massive outbreak in a country of 1 billion

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China

Population 1,427,647,786 (2018 data)

Booger says

PaisleyPattern says

china had massive outbreak in a country of 1 billion

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China

Population 1,427,647,786 (2018 data)

Yes, thanks for that correction. I should’ve double checked that number. My point though still stands. A very widespread breakout of coronavirus in China and we are supposed to believe they were only 3000 deaths. Italy is now close to 2000 in only a few weeks.

PaisleyPattern says

Italy is now close to 2000 in only a few weeks.

Italy is different from the US or China.
Italy has open borders.
Italy has an unusually large elderly population.
Italy seems to have flu issues in other years as well:
https://www.thelocal.it/20180119/italy-worst-flu-season-in-14-years
2018 was an unusually bad year everywhere, even in the US, but nobody made a big deal about it:
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2018/10/02/flu-season-arrives-after-highest-death-rate-in-four-decades-80000-estimated/

WookieMan says

PaisleyPattern says

Do you still think that the fatalities are going to be minor, but that that the economic consequences of the over reaction will be the real problem?

I haven't really cared about the fatalities in all honesty. In the grand scheme of world population, it's not going to be a big deal at all.

The economic consequences will most certainly kill more people. I still think we're overreacting 100%. But, at this point if we're going to overreact let's go full retard I guess is my point of view in the timeline of events, hence my change of tone in the last 24 hours.

I also don't have much choice as the reaction is government mandated. Starting tomorrow I cannot go have lunch at a bar here in IL. Have a flight scheduled for Saturday, but realistically know that it's going to be cancelled and have decent info that domestic air is going to be grounded.



Paisley responds:

My concern is that China’s reaction, which was extreme, is an indication of the true nature of the risks and fatalities of this virus. Similarly, our countries reaction, which really is unprecedented and immense is also indicative of our governments knowledge of the actual infectiousness and likely fatalities and impact on our healthcare system and our society in general. I think the government isn’t telling us the truth.

If you assume this is much worse than our government is telling us, then China’s reaction, and our country’s reaction makes sense, and it isn’t an overreaction, it’s an appropriate reaction to a scenario that they are keeping from the public to prevent widespread panic.

I’ve already been accused of tinfoil thinking, and that is fair enough, I am suggesting
the US government is perpetrating a massive cover-up on our population, it wouldn’t be the first time, and I’m sure it would be justified by the goal of preventing panic.

zzyzzx says

PaisleyPattern says

Italy is now close to 2000 in only a few weeks.

Italy is different from the US or China.
Italy has open borders.
Italy has an unusually large elderly population.
Italy seems to have flu issues in other years as well:
https://www.thelocal.it/20180119/italy-worst-flu-season-in-14-years
2018 was an unusually bad year everywhere, even in the US, but nobody made a big deal about it:
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2018/10/02/flu-season-arrives-after-highest-death-rate-in-four-decades-80000-estimated/

The first article states that typically flu deaths in a bad Italian season around 250 a month.Italy has had 2000 deaths in under a month, from coronavirus.

What I've been saying.... https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/social-distancing-could-have-devastating-effect-people-depression-n1157871

Gonna kill more through our reaction. But hey.... old people.

Booger says

PaisleyPattern says

3/ the extreme reactions by governments, especially the United States, now, to try to control it.

In an overly litigious society, one should not be surprised at an over reaction.

This x 1000 - everyone and their mother will sue if granny or grampa dies.