patrick.net

mell says

My hope is that the containment will work quickly and paired with the warmer weather we can lift it sometime in April. The growth rate in the US is by far not what Italy had, despite alarmist articles.

Has there been evidence though that it will slow with warmer weather? Not saying it won't, I just don't know. If things go back to "normal" in June and the numbers ramp up, it's going to be hard to tell. And then does everyone hunker down again? If the economy takes a quarter off, I really don't see what the government can do. It will be a disaster.

I'm not worried about the growth rate here in the states for CV-19 besides the coastal cities (LA, SF, NYC, MIAMI, etc) and Chicago and Houston. I know there are other large cities, but the US is no where near as densely populated as Italy. Throw in open borders, age and a higher smoking rate and Italy is a bad place for this virus to be.

WookieMan says

Has there been evidence though that it will slow with warmer weather? Not saying it won't, I just don't know.

Common colds are caused by (other) coronavirus and these do slow down with warmer weather.

WookieMan says

Has there been evidence though that it will slow with warmer weather? Not saying it won't, I just don't know.

According to this study, heat and humidity reduce Coronavirus transmission.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767

Presuming 6B plus people in the world, 30 million or so have died from all causes since November. Taking the top estimates for Coronavirus deaths, that means if attribution is accurate and Coronavirus is the sole cause of death (which it usually isn't, because most patients who die are compromised by other things), that means that about .02 percent of deaths since November in the world MIGHT be attributed to Coronavirus. Twice as many people at least have died in auto accidents in the USA alone since then as have died of Coronavirus in the world. And of course, with our "Cry Wolf" Press Deceivers and Government agencies, who knows if the reports are even real.

So, for this, the press and whoever have decided that generating mass panic and destroying the economy are advisable? Martial Law Pandemic Dress Rehearsal. As soon as the press stops, the 'pandemic' stops. Mission accomplished.

"Everybody lives forever, nobody dies or SHOULD die, the only thing killing people in the world right now is Covid-19, so panic and live forever by avoiding Coronavirus!"

WookieMan says

mell says

My hope is that the containment will work quickly and paired with the warmer weather we can lift it sometime in April. The growth rate in the US is by far not what Italy had, despite alarmist articles.

Has there been evidence though that it will slow with warmer weather? Not saying it won't, I just don't know. If things go back to "normal" in June and the numbers ramp up, it's going to be hard to tell. And then does everyone hunker down again? If the economy takes a quarter off, I really don't see what the government can do. It will be a disaster.

I'm not worried about the growth rate here in the states for CV-19 besides the coastal cities (LA, SF, NYC, MIAMI, etc) and Chicago and Houston. I know there are other large cities, but the US is no where near as densely populated as Italy. Throw in open borders, age and a higher smoking rate and Italy is a bad place for this virus to be.

If you look at CV infections across the globe, colder countries dominate massively. Similar to cold and flu viruses, CVs like cold and dry weather. Sunlight, heat, and humidity destroys the virus fairly quickly. Of course the high transmission rate obfuscates that a bit but spring should slow it down significantly.

A friend sent these in an email. Not sure where he got them. All seem like reasonable estimates:

50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.
70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected.
Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.
The virus appears to be concentrated in a band between 30-50 degrees north latitude, meaning that like the common cold and flu, it prefers cold weather. The coming summer in the northern hemisphere should help. This is to say that the virus is likely seasonal.
Of those impacted 80% will be early-stage, 15% mid-stage and 5% critical-stage. Early-stage symptoms are like the common cold and mid-stage symptoms are like the flu; these are stay at home for two weeks and rest. 5% will be critical and highly weighted towards the elderly.
Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system.
There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.
China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover.
Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%.
S&P 500 will see a negative growth rate of -15% to -20% for 2020 overall.
There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.
In the past week there has been a conflating of the impact of the virus with the developing oil price war between KSA and Russia. While reduced energy prices are generally good for industrial economies, the US is now a large energy exporter, so there has been a negative impact on the valuation of the domestic energy sector. This will continue for some time as the Russians are attempting to economically squeeze the American shale producers and the Saudi’s are caught in the middle and do not want to further cede market share to Russia or the US.
Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history.
There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like ‪9/11 than it does like 2008.

Patrick says

50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable.

Doubtful. Not with the quarantines. We are about to have a shelter in place. The rest seems somewhat reasonable. If everybody would roam free then 50% would catch it.

Not sure about the 50%, but it's possible if the virus is really super-infectious. People have to go out and get food and bring it home, etc.

Also unclear: several sites say that the virus is spread mostly by asymptomatic people. How though? If they are not coughing, it is just about what they touch? Or does mere breathing spread it?

Patrick says

How though?

Probably the same way any cold normally spreads.

Aren't colds spread mostly by infected people coughing and sneezing?

Patrick says

Not sure about the 50%, but it's possible if the virus is really super-infectious. People have to go out and get food and bring it home, etc.

Also unclear: several sites say that the virus is spread mostly by asymptomatic people. How though? If they are not coughing, it is just about what they touch? Or does mere breathing spread it?

Same way as symptomatic people. You still sneeze or cough or touch surfaces even if you aren't sick yet, there are allergies etc. I doubt you will catch it if you follow proper hygiene, stay 6 ft away from people and don't touch your face. At some point it's unlikely that the few people that are left out there with you in the grocery store carry CV. I highly doubt that it's mainly spread by asymptomatic people. What they mean is that those are hard to detect and so a lot of them can spread it. But the viral load of a symptomatic person is much higher and you're much more likely to catch it from them. The R0 for measles is much higher but you have a certain amount of herd immunity which usually stops local outbreaks.

As of March 15 Sunday, the WHO reported 10 critical cases presently in the USA, and 69 have died so far.

I hope things settle down soon, but media and liberals are spreading panic.

Facebook people who are bleeding heart Trump haters talk about the lack of tests, scary deaths in China and Italy, and generally blame Trump for being “inept”.

I saw a news story yesterday “Another Corona virus victim has died in Santa Clara. It was a woman in her 80’s.”

After my stint in Florida, I heard about people over 80 dying of pneumonia all the time, and I also saw it kill people I knew, long before this type of viral pneumonia arrived.

clambo says

As of March 15 Sunday, the WHO reported 10 critical cases presently in the USA, and 69 have died so far.

I hope things settle down soon, but media and liberals are spreading panic.

Facebook people who are bleeding heart Trump haters talk about the lack of tests, scary deaths in China and Italy, and generally blame Trump for being “inept”.

I saw a news story yesterday “Another Corona virus victim has died in Santa Clara. It was a woman in her 80’s.”

After my stint in Florida, I heard about people over 80 dying of pneumonia all the time, and I also saw it kill people I knew, long before this type of viral pneumonia arrived.

Right - in fact there are many types of viral and bacterial pneumonia and elderly are encouraged to vaccinate against pneumococces.

The rate of increase in the US and Canada seems to have slowed in the last few days:

6 mar 100 new cases
7 mar 116 new cases 1.16 of old
8 mar 121 new cases 1.04 of old
9 mar 178 new cases 1.47 of old
10 mar 290 new cases 1.63 of old
11 mar 247 new cases 0.85 of old
12 mar 426 new cases 1.72 of old
13 mar 567 new cases 1.33 of old
14 mar 718 new cases 1.26 of old
15 mar 806 new cases 1.22 of old

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en

Meanwhile, almost 400 people were killed by Islamic Attacks in the past 30 days.

https://thereligionofpeace.com/attacks/attacks.aspx?Yr=Last30

Patrick says

The rate of increase in the US and Canada seems to have slowed in the last few days:

6 mar 100 new cases
7 mar 116 new cases 1.16 of old
8 mar 121 new cases 1.04 of old
9 mar 178 new cases 1.47 of old
10 mar 290 new cases 1.63 of old
11 mar 247 new cases 0.85 of old
12 mar 426 new cases 1.72 of old
13 mar 567 new cases 1.33 of old
14 mar 718 new cases 1.26 of old
15 mar 806 new cases 1.22 of old

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en

That as testing increases, so that's a good sign. But as I said they're taking no chances to let this overburden the health care system which I think i the real reason since otherwise critical care might get restricted, no matter for what reason needed. As testing is still increasing, another spike is possible, but I expect it to remain between 15%-30% growth til it significantly levels off from the lockdowns. I expect 900-1000 new confirmed cases today.

"And in San Francisco, homeless are still expelling geysers of feces on to streets and returning to their needle strewn, typhus infested tents."

Maybe you all know this, but when a case is reported, it’s a positive test for the virus.

Not all cases are actually sick people, rather likely to be sick and capable of spreading it.

As of yesterday, 10 people in the USA were critically sick, and 69 have died.

clambo says

Not all cases are actually sick people, rather likely to be sick and capable of spreading it.

Someone get this guy a Corona when the restaurants open back up... oh wait... they probably won't.

In all seriousness, your comment is spot on. People are no more sick from this than the actual flu and more so in children not having symptoms. And yes, with current actions, the flu will spread less as well so that's about the only positive.

Granny and mom were going to die anyway. It could have been from the regular 'ole flu or this. I'm not sure the overall probability of death during this time of year is going to end up being higher than previous years for that demo. But hey, shut down the country.

Patrick says

The rate of increase in the US and Canada seems to have slowed in the last few days:

6 mar 100 new cases
7 mar 116 new cases 1.16 of old
8 mar 121 new cases 1.04 of old
9 mar 178 new cases 1.47 of old
10 mar 290 new cases 1.63 of old
11 mar 247 new cases 0.85 of old
12 mar 426 new cases 1.72 of old
13 mar 567 new cases 1.33 of old
14 mar 718 new cases 1.26 of old
15 mar 806 new cases 1.22 of old

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en

We should all question the data from CV. the people being tested are probably the most sick. Therefore most likely many many times more people have it already.

This also means the deathrate is probably a fraction of the 2% estimate.

I'm still suggesting we wont get to 1% of average flu deaths in US. <350 deaths... though that number is starting to look optimistic, albeit imo still reasonable.

For anyone doing back of envelope forecasts, you really think these estimates are anywhere close to accurate? Explain how china only has a few thousand deaths with a multi month head start on us

CBOEtrader says

Explain how china only has a few thousand deaths with a multi month head start on us

No one can, unless the higher ups know the Chinese are full on completely making the data up and that this actually is a true killer. The reaction doesn't fit the numbers as you mention. The super sick get tested and most people think they have a cough and cold and just get some rest and never get tested or visit the doc.

CBOEtrader says

Patrick says

The rate of increase in the US and Canada seems to have slowed in the last few days:

6 mar 100 new cases
7 mar 116 new cases 1.16 of old
8 mar 121 new cases 1.04 of old
9 mar 178 new cases 1.47 of old
10 mar 290 new cases 1.63 of old
11 mar 247 new cases 0.85 of old
12 mar 426 new cases 1.72 of old
13 mar 567 new cases 1.33 of old
14 mar 718 new cases 1.26 of old
15 mar 806 new cases 1.22 of old

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en

We should all question the data from CV. the people being tested are probably the most sick. Therefore most likely many many times more people have it already.

This also means the deathrate is probably a fraction of the 2% estimate.

I'm still suggesting we wont get to 1% of average flu deaths in US. >35 dea...

The more tests are run the better you can extrapolate from them. Yeah, the real number of infections is higher, but you don't need a full census to do the math, just a good enough sample. Yes, the death rate is likely lower as well, but to insinuate that running test is useless would be foolish. If you test enough people and suddenly most have colds and other infections and not CV, then you know the curve is flattening. If everyone tests positive then you know you have a much larger infected population.

You can see as the number of confirmed infections grow due to increased testing that the mild/serious ratio has moved from 85/15 to 94/6 percentage wise as expected.

“We have an invisible enemy, we have a problem that a month ago nobody ever thought about,” Trump said. “I’ve seen all of the different problems similar to this that we’ve had -- this is a bad one, this is a very bad one, this is bad in the sense that it’s so contagious, it’s just so contagious, sort of record-setting type contagion.”

WookieMan says

No one can, unless the higher ups know the Chinese are full on completely making the data up and that this actually is a true killer. The reaction doesn't fit the numbers as you mention. The super sick get tested and most people think they have a cough and cold and just get some rest and never get tested or visit the doc.

People in China avoid Chinese products whenever possible for their questionable quality/safety. I'm sure the GDP numbers have been overstated for years as well, and that compounds.

We'll also get a nice period of chaos when the Chicom Government falls/has a semi-democratic coup, which will buy us a decade to industrialize the moon & leap ahead.

On top of all that, the Chinese population is now aging and even with the end of one child policy, the birthrates aren't recovering as poor Chinese workers prefer to heavily invest in 1 or 2 kids vs. having a lot of them, like the rest of the developed/developing world.

Get Ready, A Bigger Disruption Is Coming
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-16/coronavirus-foreshadow-s-bigger-disruptions-in-future
"The financial crisis of 2008, which has caused deeper and longer damage than the Great Depression, may have discredited the globalizing elite that promised prosperity to all, creating broad scope for opportunistic demagogues like Donald Trump. Yet few lessons were learnt from the collapse of global markets as the tide moved faster to Niagara. This is why the crisis of our time is as much intellectual as it is political, economic and environmental."

CBOEtrader says

Explain how china only has a few thousand deaths with a multi month head start on us

China totally locked down a metro area of 16 million people. Only letting them out for 5 minutes a day. And the govt delivered food to them. I don't think we other wise have accurate info. That's why we need our own. It is encouraging that Hong Kong isn't blowing up too badly. But then they too locked down.

We just have to see

mell says

but I expect it to remain between 15%-30% growth til it significantly levels off from the lockdowns.

There was some Chinese epidemiologist that predicted 10 fold increase in the number infected outside of china every two weeks. that would be roughly 18% growth per day.

Great. An excuse for Trump to permanently repair the system. It was a Dem House with Dem President 2009-2010, clear mandate, and they distracted with Obamacare rather than fix the banking system.

I don't think the economic impact will be that great, it's always overestimated. In 2008 people said nothing is going to be the same again for at least 10 years and then Dow went to 30k. Also if it's so infectious an zomg! 50% will get it how come nobody on patnet had it yet? Ok Shaman had a bad cold but unlikely CV, I had a cold a while ago, I think one or two others reported having a cold. Likely none of these was CV and even if so, the majority has not reported yet. Will you please stand up! These drastic measures will surely curb it, I'm 99% positive, but we will peak first as we test more and more. Looks like we may hit 1100 new infections today.

mell says

Looks like we may hit 1100 new infections today.

What's your source ?

marcus says

mell says

Looks like we may hit 1100 new infections today.

What's your source ?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

marcus says

China totally locked down a metro area of 16 million people. Only letting them out for 5 minutes a day. And the govt delivered food to them. I don't think we other wise have accurate info. That's why we need our own.

LOL! No government in the world can deliver food to 16 million people one household at a time, while each of those households is locked in their own apartments. What actually happened (and is happening) in Wuhan is that government banned traveling and vending without special permits. So people have to pay huge bribes to get out of their own apartments . . . and vendors after paying huge bribes to buy exclusive selling rights were selling food in tiny packages at 100x the normal prices for low quality food. . . resulting in that most average people having to starve in their own apartments. When some neighbors organized to have farmers truck in fresh vegetables at much lower than the extortionary prices, the government functionaries quickly beat up the farmers and demolished the truckload of veggies.

Marcus, what you worship as omnipotent and omniscient government-god is actually a bunch of selfish thugs wearing costumes. Everyone has self-interest, and power corrupts. The government-thugs there are literally threatening to break legs of those daring to venture out of their own apartments (without special permit) and to knock out teeth of those who dare to argue . . . making that pair of threats into their official enforcement slogan! Perhaps, Marcus, if you love those policies so much, you should fly yourself to Wuhan or North Korea, and leave the rest of us alone.

:
What I worship ? Fuck you.

I saw a video about the Wuhan lockdown. Obviously a lot of different things happened with 16 million people. I didn't say it was good. And it's only conjecture anyway about how they stopped the virus, if they even did. I don't trust their numbers either, of course. And sure there are probably other factors.

Try not to be such an asshole okay ? You can be a better person if you want to, I'm not giving up on you (although ignore is an option for your other accounts too) if it's that hard for you to control your rabid hate.

Reality says

Perhaps, Marcus, if you love those policies so much, you should fly yourself to Wuhan or North Korea, and leave the rest of us alone.

LoL !

Interesting thought exercise: What could the initial death rate coming out of China have been so that zero measures would have been taken? 0.1%? 0.5%? 0.05%?

Dear Marcus, please use some common sense. It's not possible for government itself to supply food to 16 million people directly one household at a time; some kind of fascist exclusive vending right has to be auctioned through bribes. Why would those keystone cop enforcers (have to be low-quality little-trained keystone cop enforcers because enforcement has to be carried out against the entire population not just a tiny percentage criminal elements) risk their own lives interacting with anyone instead of welding every door shut and seal the inmates to die inside? Because there is profit opportunity for extorting bribes! That and the vicious satisfaction of beating someone up. Those enforcers are similar to the lowest-rung scum Nazi concentration camp guards 75-80 years ago.

Newest data shows the stronger death rate from Wuhan has come down to 1.4%. It's supposed to be quite lower in the West. For the young and middle aged it's comparable or less than the flu.

Good question, Mell. I suspect the Chinese leadership may have over-estimated the effectiveness of their (or stolen from elsewhere) biological weapon. Given the percentage of "re-infections," there is reason to suspect that two or more different types/strains of virus got out of their Wuhan biological weapons lab. The most deadly type/strain that initially killed a lot of people locally may have died with the dead victims, leaving only the relatively less harmful type/strain escaping to the other cities and the rest of the world. The South Korean data is showing overall death rate lower than 0.6% . . . that's fairly close to normal flu death rate (0.1% to 1%; CDC claiming 12k to 61k flu deaths in the US each year, so averaging 36k if 0.1% would mean 36million flu sufferers every year, 1 in 10, highly unlikely, so the flu death rate has to be higher than 0.1%) and annual car accident death rate (30-50k deaths resulting from 100 mil active drivers, so 0.3-0.5%). At this point, how exactly do they know whether people are testing positive for "Covid-19" vs. normal corona-virus types that account for 20% of common cold every year and kill large numbers of elderly every year?