patrick.net

Patrick says

50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable.

Doubtful. Not with the quarantines. We are about to have a shelter in place. The rest seems somewhat reasonable. If everybody would roam free then 50% would catch it.

Not sure about the 50%, but it's possible if the virus is really super-infectious. People have to go out and get food and bring it home, etc.

Also unclear: several sites say that the virus is spread mostly by asymptomatic people. How though? If they are not coughing, it is just about what they touch? Or does mere breathing spread it?

Patrick says

How though?

Probably the same way any cold normally spreads.

Aren't colds spread mostly by infected people coughing and sneezing?

Patrick says

Not sure about the 50%, but it's possible if the virus is really super-infectious. People have to go out and get food and bring it home, etc.

Also unclear: several sites say that the virus is spread mostly by asymptomatic people. How though? If they are not coughing, it is just about what they touch? Or does mere breathing spread it?

Same way as symptomatic people. You still sneeze or cough or touch surfaces even if you aren't sick yet, there are allergies etc. I doubt you will catch it if you follow proper hygiene, stay 6 ft away from people and don't touch your face. At some point it's unlikely that the few people that are left out there with you in the grocery store carry CV. I highly doubt that it's mainly spread by asymptomatic people. What they mean is that those are hard to detect and so a lot of them can spread it. But the viral load of a symptomatic person is much higher and you're much more likely to catch it from them. The R0 for measles is much higher but you have a certain amount of herd immunity which usually stops local outbreaks.

As of March 15 Sunday, the WHO reported 10 critical cases presently in the USA, and 69 have died so far.

I hope things settle down soon, but media and liberals are spreading panic.

Facebook people who are bleeding heart Trump haters talk about the lack of tests, scary deaths in China and Italy, and generally blame Trump for being “inept”.

I saw a news story yesterday “Another Corona virus victim has died in Santa Clara. It was a woman in her 80’s.”

After my stint in Florida, I heard about people over 80 dying of pneumonia all the time, and I also saw it kill people I knew, long before this type of viral pneumonia arrived.

clambo says

As of March 15 Sunday, the WHO reported 10 critical cases presently in the USA, and 69 have died so far.

I hope things settle down soon, but media and liberals are spreading panic.

Facebook people who are bleeding heart Trump haters talk about the lack of tests, scary deaths in China and Italy, and generally blame Trump for being “inept”.

I saw a news story yesterday “Another Corona virus victim has died in Santa Clara. It was a woman in her 80’s.”

After my stint in Florida, I heard about people over 80 dying of pneumonia all the time, and I also saw it kill people I knew, long before this type of viral pneumonia arrived.

Right - in fact there are many types of viral and bacterial pneumonia and elderly are encouraged to vaccinate against pneumococces.

The rate of increase in the US and Canada seems to have slowed in the last few days:

6 mar 100 new cases
7 mar 116 new cases 1.16 of old
8 mar 121 new cases 1.04 of old
9 mar 178 new cases 1.47 of old
10 mar 290 new cases 1.63 of old
11 mar 247 new cases 0.85 of old
12 mar 426 new cases 1.72 of old
13 mar 567 new cases 1.33 of old
14 mar 718 new cases 1.26 of old
15 mar 806 new cases 1.22 of old

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en

Meanwhile, almost 400 people were killed by Islamic Attacks in the past 30 days.

https://thereligionofpeace.com/attacks/attacks.aspx?Yr=Last30

Patrick says

The rate of increase in the US and Canada seems to have slowed in the last few days:

6 mar 100 new cases
7 mar 116 new cases 1.16 of old
8 mar 121 new cases 1.04 of old
9 mar 178 new cases 1.47 of old
10 mar 290 new cases 1.63 of old
11 mar 247 new cases 0.85 of old
12 mar 426 new cases 1.72 of old
13 mar 567 new cases 1.33 of old
14 mar 718 new cases 1.26 of old
15 mar 806 new cases 1.22 of old

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en

That as testing increases, so that's a good sign. But as I said they're taking no chances to let this overburden the health care system which I think i the real reason since otherwise critical care might get restricted, no matter for what reason needed. As testing is still increasing, another spike is possible, but I expect it to remain between 15%-30% growth til it significantly levels off from the lockdowns. I expect 900-1000 new confirmed cases today.

"And in San Francisco, homeless are still expelling geysers of feces on to streets and returning to their needle strewn, typhus infested tents."

Maybe you all know this, but when a case is reported, it’s a positive test for the virus.

Not all cases are actually sick people, rather likely to be sick and capable of spreading it.

As of yesterday, 10 people in the USA were critically sick, and 69 have died.

clambo says

Not all cases are actually sick people, rather likely to be sick and capable of spreading it.

Someone get this guy a Corona when the restaurants open back up... oh wait... they probably won't.

In all seriousness, your comment is spot on. People are no more sick from this than the actual flu and more so in children not having symptoms. And yes, with current actions, the flu will spread less as well so that's about the only positive.

Granny and mom were going to die anyway. It could have been from the regular 'ole flu or this. I'm not sure the overall probability of death during this time of year is going to end up being higher than previous years for that demo. But hey, shut down the country.

Patrick says

The rate of increase in the US and Canada seems to have slowed in the last few days:

6 mar 100 new cases
7 mar 116 new cases 1.16 of old
8 mar 121 new cases 1.04 of old
9 mar 178 new cases 1.47 of old
10 mar 290 new cases 1.63 of old
11 mar 247 new cases 0.85 of old
12 mar 426 new cases 1.72 of old
13 mar 567 new cases 1.33 of old
14 mar 718 new cases 1.26 of old
15 mar 806 new cases 1.22 of old

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en

We should all question the data from CV. the people being tested are probably the most sick. Therefore most likely many many times more people have it already.

This also means the deathrate is probably a fraction of the 2% estimate.

I'm still suggesting we wont get to 1% of average flu deaths in US. <350 deaths... though that number is starting to look optimistic, albeit imo still reasonable.

For anyone doing back of envelope forecasts, you really think these estimates are anywhere close to accurate? Explain how china only has a few thousand deaths with a multi month head start on us

CBOEtrader says

Explain how china only has a few thousand deaths with a multi month head start on us

No one can, unless the higher ups know the Chinese are full on completely making the data up and that this actually is a true killer. The reaction doesn't fit the numbers as you mention. The super sick get tested and most people think they have a cough and cold and just get some rest and never get tested or visit the doc.

CBOEtrader says

Patrick says

The rate of increase in the US and Canada seems to have slowed in the last few days:

6 mar 100 new cases
7 mar 116 new cases 1.16 of old
8 mar 121 new cases 1.04 of old
9 mar 178 new cases 1.47 of old
10 mar 290 new cases 1.63 of old
11 mar 247 new cases 0.85 of old
12 mar 426 new cases 1.72 of old
13 mar 567 new cases 1.33 of old
14 mar 718 new cases 1.26 of old
15 mar 806 new cases 1.22 of old

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en

We should all question the data from CV. the people being tested are probably the most sick. Therefore most likely many many times more people have it already.

This also means the deathrate is probably a fraction of the 2% estimate.

I'm still suggesting we wont get to 1% of average flu deaths in US. >35 dea...

The more tests are run the better you can extrapolate from them. Yeah, the real number of infections is higher, but you don't need a full census to do the math, just a good enough sample. Yes, the death rate is likely lower as well, but to insinuate that running test is useless would be foolish. If you test enough people and suddenly most have colds and other infections and not CV, then you know the curve is flattening. If everyone tests positive then you know you have a much larger infected population.

You can see as the number of confirmed infections grow due to increased testing that the mild/serious ratio has moved from 85/15 to 94/6 percentage wise as expected.

“We have an invisible enemy, we have a problem that a month ago nobody ever thought about,” Trump said. “I’ve seen all of the different problems similar to this that we’ve had -- this is a bad one, this is a very bad one, this is bad in the sense that it’s so contagious, it’s just so contagious, sort of record-setting type contagion.”

WookieMan says

No one can, unless the higher ups know the Chinese are full on completely making the data up and that this actually is a true killer. The reaction doesn't fit the numbers as you mention. The super sick get tested and most people think they have a cough and cold and just get some rest and never get tested or visit the doc.

People in China avoid Chinese products whenever possible for their questionable quality/safety. I'm sure the GDP numbers have been overstated for years as well, and that compounds.

We'll also get a nice period of chaos when the Chicom Government falls/has a semi-democratic coup, which will buy us a decade to industrialize the moon & leap ahead.

On top of all that, the Chinese population is now aging and even with the end of one child policy, the birthrates aren't recovering as poor Chinese workers prefer to heavily invest in 1 or 2 kids vs. having a lot of them, like the rest of the developed/developing world.

Get Ready, A Bigger Disruption Is Coming
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-16/coronavirus-foreshadow-s-bigger-disruptions-in-future
"The financial crisis of 2008, which has caused deeper and longer damage than the Great Depression, may have discredited the globalizing elite that promised prosperity to all, creating broad scope for opportunistic demagogues like Donald Trump. Yet few lessons were learnt from the collapse of global markets as the tide moved faster to Niagara. This is why the crisis of our time is as much intellectual as it is political, economic and environmental."

CBOEtrader says

Explain how china only has a few thousand deaths with a multi month head start on us

China totally locked down a metro area of 16 million people. Only letting them out for 5 minutes a day. And the govt delivered food to them. I don't think we other wise have accurate info. That's why we need our own. It is encouraging that Hong Kong isn't blowing up too badly. But then they too locked down.

We just have to see

mell says

but I expect it to remain between 15%-30% growth til it significantly levels off from the lockdowns.

There was some Chinese epidemiologist that predicted 10 fold increase in the number infected outside of china every two weeks. that would be roughly 18% growth per day.

Great. An excuse for Trump to permanently repair the system. It was a Dem House with Dem President 2009-2010, clear mandate, and they distracted with Obamacare rather than fix the banking system.

I don't think the economic impact will be that great, it's always overestimated. In 2008 people said nothing is going to be the same again for at least 10 years and then Dow went to 30k. Also if it's so infectious an zomg! 50% will get it how come nobody on patnet had it yet? Ok Shaman had a bad cold but unlikely CV, I had a cold a while ago, I think one or two others reported having a cold. Likely none of these was CV and even if so, the majority has not reported yet. Will you please stand up! These drastic measures will surely curb it, I'm 99% positive, but we will peak first as we test more and more. Looks like we may hit 1100 new infections today.

mell says

Looks like we may hit 1100 new infections today.

What's your source ?

marcus says

mell says

Looks like we may hit 1100 new infections today.

What's your source ?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

marcus says

China totally locked down a metro area of 16 million people. Only letting them out for 5 minutes a day. And the govt delivered food to them. I don't think we other wise have accurate info. That's why we need our own.

LOL! No government in the world can deliver food to 16 million people one household at a time, while each of those households is locked in their own apartments. What actually happened (and is happening) in Wuhan is that government banned traveling and vending without special permits. So people have to pay huge bribes to get out of their own apartments . . . and vendors after paying huge bribes to buy exclusive selling rights were selling food in tiny packages at 100x the normal prices for low quality food. . . resulting in that most average people having to starve in their own apartments. When some neighbors organized to have farmers truck in fresh vegetables at much lower than the extortionary prices, the government functionaries quickly beat up the farmers and demolished the truckload of veggies.

Marcus, what you worship as omnipotent and omniscient government-god is actually a bunch of selfish thugs wearing costumes. Everyone has self-interest, and power corrupts. The government-thugs there are literally threatening to break legs of those daring to venture out of their own apartments (without special permit) and to knock out teeth of those who dare to argue . . . making that pair of threats into their official enforcement slogan! Perhaps, Marcus, if you love those policies so much, you should fly yourself to Wuhan or North Korea, and leave the rest of us alone.

:
What I worship ? Fuck you.

I saw a video about the Wuhan lockdown. Obviously a lot of different things happened with 16 million people. I didn't say it was good. And it's only conjecture anyway about how they stopped the virus, if they even did. I don't trust their numbers either, of course. And sure there are probably other factors.

Try not to be such an asshole okay ? You can be a better person if you want to, I'm not giving up on you (although ignore is an option for your other accounts too) if it's that hard for you to control your rabid hate.

Reality says

Perhaps, Marcus, if you love those policies so much, you should fly yourself to Wuhan or North Korea, and leave the rest of us alone.

LoL !

Interesting thought exercise: What could the initial death rate coming out of China have been so that zero measures would have been taken? 0.1%? 0.5%? 0.05%?

Dear Marcus, please use some common sense. It's not possible for government itself to supply food to 16 million people directly one household at a time; some kind of fascist exclusive vending right has to be auctioned through bribes. Why would those keystone cop enforcers (have to be low-quality little-trained keystone cop enforcers because enforcement has to be carried out against the entire population not just a tiny percentage criminal elements) risk their own lives interacting with anyone instead of welding every door shut and seal the inmates to die inside? Because there is profit opportunity for extorting bribes! That and the vicious satisfaction of beating someone up. Those enforcers are similar to the lowest-rung scum Nazi concentration camp guards 75-80 years ago.

Newest data shows the stronger death rate from Wuhan has come down to 1.4%. It's supposed to be quite lower in the West. For the young and middle aged it's comparable or less than the flu.

Good question, Mell. I suspect the Chinese leadership may have over-estimated the effectiveness of their (or stolen from elsewhere) biological weapon. Given the percentage of "re-infections," there is reason to suspect that two or more different types/strains of virus got out of their Wuhan biological weapons lab. The most deadly type/strain that initially killed a lot of people locally may have died with the dead victims, leaving only the relatively less harmful type/strain escaping to the other cities and the rest of the world. The South Korean data is showing overall death rate lower than 0.6% . . . that's fairly close to normal flu death rate (0.1% to 1%; CDC claiming 12k to 61k flu deaths in the US each year, so averaging 36k if 0.1% would mean 36million flu sufferers every year, 1 in 10, highly unlikely, so the flu death rate has to be higher than 0.1%) and annual car accident death rate (30-50k deaths resulting from 100 mil active drivers, so 0.3-0.5%). At this point, how exactly do they know whether people are testing positive for "Covid-19" vs. normal corona-virus types that account for 20% of common cold every year and kill large numbers of elderly every year?

Reality says

Good question, Mell. I suspect the Chinese leadership may have over-estimated the effectiveness of their (or stolen from elsewhere) biological weapon. Given the percentage of "re-infections," there is reason to suspect that two or more different types/strains of virus got out of their Wuhan biological weapons lab. The most deadly type/strain that initially killed a lot of people locally may have died with the dead victims, leaving only the relatively less harmful type/strain escaping to the other cities and the rest of the world. The South Korean data is showing overall death rate lower than 0.6% . . . that's fairly close to normal flu death rate (0.1% to 1%; CDC claiming 12k to 61k flu deaths in the US each year, so averaging 36k if 0.1% would mean 36million flu sufferers every year, 1 in 10, highly unlikely, so the flu death rate has to be higher than 0.1%) and annual car accident death rate (30-50k deaths resulting from 100 mil active drivers, so 0.3-0.5%). At this point, how ex...

I assume the Covid-19 test is for the specific new strains (L and S), but Coronavirus in general has been around forever and causing colds and deaths. Do you think this was a bioweapon? I am leaning towards animal to human transmission but it is interesting that the lab was right there. Why would they release it on purpose on their own? To cause a delayed recession in the West? They are the supplier of cheap shit, without the West buying their shit they go into an even deeper recession. I can't come up with a good reason to unleash this.

WookieMan says

The reaction doesn't fit the numbers

Agreed. That's the most disturbing thing about all this. It's not as lethal as the H1N1 swine flu of 2009, even if much more contagious. 60m Americans got that swine flu, and we hardly even mention it anymore

Reality says

there is reason to suspect that two or more different types/strains of virus

@Reality you're right about that. Read at least one scientific paper pointing out that there are definitely two of these viruses, one more lethal than the other.

:
You can tell who the people are that latch on to whatever random rumors they want. It is human nature to believe what you want to believe.

We should all try to hold on to a somewhat ignorant state of mind with this until more solid data U.S data comes in. Hopefully we can trust our experts with the facts ?

I've heard both things that this is way more communicable than the flu, and then I heard an expert on NPR this morning saying it is less so than the flu. Which is it ? Hard to know before they do some serious sampling of the general population in places where it's active.

This is interesting.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carlieporterfield/2020/03/13/south-korea-sees-coronavirus-slowdown-without-a-lockdown-but-with-nearly-250000-tests/#45cb3323576b

I have a hypothesis.

What if wearing a surgical mask really does protect people to a large extent, and the reason that American health experts say that they don't work, except minimally to prevent the spread when sick people wear them, is becasue we can't get them. They're all made in Asia, and they are holding on to them right now.

A case of people believing what they want to believe. Asians wear those masks religiously when there is a bug going around. Everyone wore those masks 24/7 in recent weeks.

Again, just a hypothesis. I definitely believe they work better than our experts say they do (that is beyond just the sick people wearing them) for when they cough or sneeze.

Patrick says

60m Americans got that swine flu, and we hardly even mention it anymore

How many died that flu season ? I believe it's less than any of the recent flu seasons.

Do you guys think ups, FedEx, usps, ect will stop service?

Mell,

I don't think they necessarily deliberately released it, but more likely an accident, like when some profiteering post-grad research fellow or janitorial crew sold the wrong animals into the exotic-meat market for profit. There had been at least two previous accidental leaks of SARS virus from their biological weapons research labs in the previous decade, and there was a head researcher arrested and fined/jailed for having profited over US$1mil selling lab animals from his lab, apparently making more money from the illicit sales than from his day job as a head researcher!

IMHO, there is indeed a systematic problem with those second-rate authoritarian countries running those dangerous labs. The most talented Chinese researchers tend to find jobs in the US / Canada / UK, etc.. Those going back to China are 2nd-rate rejects, and their authoritarian promotion system is highly nepotistic ("connections"-based putting incompetents in positions ill suited for the person's ability). It's just like what Japan experienced in the early 20th century. Japanese nowadays are known for their fastidious attention to details thanks to the private sector companies like Toyota and Honda promoting "Kaizen" giving each employee the incentive to make continuous improvement at his specific position/task. A century ago, under Japanese totalitarian/authoritarian government central planning (where contracts and positions were awarded according to "connections") it was nothing like that: Japanese battleships and battlecruisers had the highest rate of magazine explosions while sitting in harbor! They were literally more dangerous to their own crews than to any other navy that they were planning to fight.

The difference this time is that, by placing those dangerous bioweapons research labs in their big cities, they are chaining the local Chinese civilians, and by extension the rest of the world due to global travel, to the deck of those dangerous "battleships" prone to "magazine explosions."

RC2006 says

Do you guys think ups, FedEx, usps, ect will stop service?

No. Why would they?
If anything they are bringing back their seasonal workers.

Marcus,

Agree with you on masks likely cutting down on transmission. However, the more important piece of info from South Korea is the sheer low fatality rate: less than 0.6%, and almost zero for people under 50 (actual zero for under 30, then 1 of each in their 30's and 40's, out of over 8k cases of positive so far).

As for trusting the "experts," well we know they already lied / obfuscated about the effectiveness of wearing masks (why would medical personnel wear protective gear if they were not effective). Everyone has self-interest. People are paid to lie everyday. If the "expert" were actually good at making money from doing real medicine, they wouldn't become talking heads (or would have to be bribed with more money they'd make from their own medical practice, to lie). So read between the lines, and find what they are trying to tell you, then decide whether to believe.