patrick.net

Marcus,

Agree with you on masks likely cutting down on transmission. However, the more important piece of info from South Korea is the sheer low fatality rate: less than 0.6%, and almost zero for people under 50 (actual zero for under 30, then 1 of each in their 30's and 40's, out of over 8k cases of positive so far).

As for trusting the "experts," well we know they already lied / obfuscated about the effectiveness of wearing masks (why would medical personnel wear protective gear if they were not effective). Everyone has self-interest. People are paid to lie everyday. If the "expert" were actually good at making money from doing real medicine, they wouldn't become talking heads (or would have to be bribed with more money they'd make from their own medical practice, to lie). So read between the lines, and find what they are trying to tell you, then decide whether to believe.

I say just go ahead and infected everybody with Corona virus and be done with this in like 2 weeks

Italy coming in at 12%, most of Europe around 20% or below. Switzerland which halted all business and started lockdowns in hotbed cantons went from doubling to 5%. Folks, this is over rather sooner than later in Europe. Naturally due to the travel patterns the US is the last to peak.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/03/stunning-average-age-of-italians-who-have-died-from-coronavirus-is-81/

Average Age of Italians Who Have Died From Coronavirus is 81!

https://babylonbee.com/news/greta-thunberg-condemns-coronavirus-for-ending-world-before-climate-change-even-had-a-chance

Greta Thunberg Condemns Coronavirus For Causing Apocalypse 10 Years Early

Even the US came in at around 22% and below 1k, so it may be already stalling. Give it a few days for the lockdown to take effect. While we're still ramping up testing though, it could plateau very soon.

Booger says

Average Age of Italians Who Have Died From Coronavirus is 81!

Guess the vino and olive oil diet didn't work after all.

Patrick says

and we hardly even mention it anymore

I still wake up in a cold sweat with nightmares from H1N1!

Kidding. It sucked but wasn't nearly as bad as the Reyes Syndrome I had when I was 3. I got it with chicken pox. I was a military brat with a pilot dad who was overseas for months at a time. My mom kept taking me back and forth to the military hospital in Tucson. Finally (when it was nearly over) I got a correct diagnosis. Most kids don't survive untreated. I think it's like 1:million, it's been years since I looked at the stats.

I fucking vomited my brains out. I remember the skin inside my mouth and throat was sloughing off. Each bit made me vomit more. It didn't stop.

Now they have warning labels on the asprin bottles.

Speaking of which they changed the formula for play-doh. I suspect I'm partly responsible for that too. Good thing tide pods were not around when I was 3.

"Death occurs in 20–40% of those affected and about a third of those who survive are left with a significant degree of brain damage." - from wikipedia. I think those stats are when you get care at a hospital.

Anyhow, anyone wonder why I'm cray cray. heh heh..

Interesting article explaining why Italy and Iran have been hit so hard with Coronvirus.

TLDR version - "The reason these two countries are suffering the most outside China is mainly due to their close ties with Beijing, primarily through the “One Belt and One Road” (OBOR) initiative."

https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/17/iran-and-italy-are-paying-a-hefty-price-for-close-ties-with-communist-china/

https://english.manoramaonline.com/lifestyle/health/2020/03/17/people-with-this-blood-group-more-vulnerable-to-coronavirus.html

Beijing: People with blood group 'A' may be more prone to the new coronavirus (COVID-19) infection while those with blood type 'O' has a lower risk of contracting the deadly virus, a first-of-its-kind study claimed on Tuesday.

Reported by the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the preliminary study looked at the blood group of patients in China who contracted the disease.

Researchers led by Wang Xinghuan with the Centre for Evidence-Based and Translational Medicine at Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University looked at blood group patterns of more than 2,000 infected patients in Wuhan and Shenzhen.

https://www.repubblica.it/salute/medicina-e-ricerca/2020/03/16/news/coronavirus_studio_il_50-75_dei_casi_a_vo_sono_asintomatici_e_molto_contagiosi-251474302/?ref=RHPPTP-BH-I251454518-C12-P3-S2.4-T1

(translated)

"The vast majority of people infected with Covid-19, between 50% and 75%, are completely asymptomatic but represent a formidable source of contagion." Professor of Clinical Immunology of the University of Florence Sergio Romagnani writes at the top of the Tuscany Region, in anticipation of a strong increase in cases also in the region, on the basis of the study on the inhabitants of Vo 'Euganeo where the 3000 inhabitants are been subjected swab testing.

The immunologist explains that the data provided by the study carried out on all the inhabitants of Vo 'Euganeo highlight two very important information: "the percentage of infected people, even if asymptomatic, in the population is very high and represents the majority of cases above all, but not only that, among young people; and the isolation of asymptomatics is essential to be able to control the spread of the virus and the severity of the disease ".

Europe finally closing its borders.
https://www.voanews.com/science-health/coronavirus-outbreak/macron-locks-down-france-eu-borders-shut-coronavirus-spreads

So glad Trump was 5 weeks ahead of this banning travel from China while all of the moron Democrats and Media (including Biden) were calling him a raaacist!

Can we admit all the stats about CV are wrong yet?

CV is not growing by 50%, or even 20% per day. The death rate isnt 2%.

If these two figures were anywhere close accurate then 1% of china would have died already.

I looked at the CDC report updated recently: "...information so far suggests that most COVID-19 illness is mild...."

Which party wants to allow the free movement across the border of people infected with TB into the USA?

Which party wants to allow the free movement across the border of 1. fentanyl 2. heroin across the border?

Which party wants to make the USA economy crash before November elections?

I'm starting to agree more and more with the over-reaction theory. But let's wait a couple more days we will see more spikes in infections with new testing which should also correct the death rate downwards.

Chinarona Cooties

https://www.sfgate.com/news/world/article/Sex-workers-face-ruin-amid-virus-fears-brothel-15136474.php

Patrick says

https://www.sfgate.com/news/world/article/Sex-workers-face-ruin-amid-virus-fears-brothel-15136474.php

Can’t they just give their coochies a month off?

https://ew.com/tv/big-brother-germany-contestants-coronavirus-live-tv-reveal/

One might think that you'd have to be living under a rock to not known about the escalating coronavirus pandemic. But it turns out you just have to live in the Big Brother house.

The 14-person cast of Germany's newest season of Big Brother are unaware of the growing crisis and will be informed on live television on Tuesday night, according to several news organizations, including Radio Times and The Guardian.

The cast has been living in isolation in a house in Cologne since Feb. 6, at which point the novel coronavirus was restricted to Wuhan and a few isolated cases around the world. Since beginning the show, they've had no updates from the outside world, apart from the addition of four housemates on March 6. Germany now has over 7,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19; 17 people have died there.

Patrick says

Germany now has over 7,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19; 17 people have died there.

17 of 7,000 cases??? Depending on age, there's a decent probability 5-10 of that 17 would have died anyway. I guess we'll just keep going full retard....

I don't see any large spikes anymore, such as doubles. We may come in closer to 25%-30% today with increased testing. Europe continues to trend down, between 10%-25% new cases. Close to 8000 died worldwide so far from CV. Close to 20k died of the flu in the US alone this year.

I hope this ends soon. My neighbors are tired of watching me drag my butt around on the front yard lawn after taking a dump.

Why Coronavirus isn't all bad:

1/As a San Francisco resident and business owner, I'm wondering--can I trust the health judgments of leaders who let thousands live on the streets in their filth? And if we are now getting homeless into shelter, why couldn't that have happened earlier? Doesn’t their health count?
2/ All of a sudden we are supposed to accept 24-hour curfews "for your own safety" from people who order the police to stand down when Antifa & friends beat the hell out of taxpayers; people who refuse to enforce laws they don't like (death penalty, bail, property crimes) .../

3/ City leaders who literally give wanted alien criminals a public heads up when ICE is about to conduct raids are now telling me what's best, declaring a death penalty for businesses, no hearings or due process?! Forgive me if I don't fall right into line with the fascism .../

4/ which seems awfully situational. The Governor's suggestions yesterday that older and vulnerable people take extra care and stay inside seemed reasonable. Liberal city leaders decided to seize the opportunity and throw the whole economy into a tailspin as collateral damage .../


5/ but don't worry -- we'll soon have a government sponsored bailout for favored groups soon, funded with a tax increase crammed down the throats of the dwindling number of taxpayers. Homeless go back to the streets, illegal alien criminals get sanctuary, car break-one continue...

6/ Criminals continue to be released from jail or not arrested at all, and we all become more habituated, like sheep, to the loss of liberty yet again, "for our safety." I'm not buying it. I don't buy it with FISA renewal, with gun grabbing, or with this sweeping lack of process.

/7 SF Mayor London is tied to a corruption investigation of a federally indicted city bureaucrat she dated. San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo mocked Trump supporters assaulted by criminals while police stood down. Oakland Mayor Libby Schaff tips off wanted violent illegal aliens ... /

/8 .... these are the Bay Area rulers telling 7.1 million+ citizens -- more than the population of many US states -- to stay indoors, shut down businesses? Great judgment, all of them.
https://twitter.com/pnjaban/status/1239811307991232512

If you are over 60, and you haven't died yet of Covid-19, you have failed your duty as a World Citizen.

CBOEtrader says

Can we admit all the stats about CV are wrong yet?

Explain Italy.

CBOEtrader says

CV is not growing by 50%, or even 20% per day. The death rate isnt 2%.

IT must be very dependent on a number of factors. South Korea cases all emanated from one religious group(they think). They managed to shut it down, and everyone wears masks there (which our experts say don't work, but then we can't get them right now if they do).

What ever the growth rate is, we know that we are slowing it way down. As someone else said, statistical sampling needs to be done here in the US. This is a great chance to do some real analysis and modeling, but testing needs to become widely available and fairly cheap before that can be done. OR perhaps the CDC could do it. That is random sampling testing wide groups (obviously including symptom free people) needs to be done if we want to know the actual death rate and growth rate.

CBOEtrader says

Can we admit all the stats about CV are wrong yet?

CV is not growing by 50%, or even 20% per day. The death rate isnt 2%.

If these two figures were anywhere close accurate then 1% of china would have died already.

They have little clue as to what is death rate.

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-outbreak-diamond-princess-cruise-ship-death-rate

Enter the Diamond Princess cruise ship. Quarantined at sea off Japan after a passenger tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, the ship became a natural data lab where nearly everyone was tested and few cases of infection were missed.

Infections and deaths onboard suggest that the disease’s true fatality ratio in China is about 0.5 percent, though that number may vary from place to place, researchers report March 9 in a paper posted at MedRxiv.org.

That 0.5 percent is far less than the 3.4 percent of confirmed cases that end in death cited by the World Health Organization, but troubling nonetheless. The WHO’s number has come under fire because the true number of people infected with the virus worldwide is not known.

As of February 20, tests of most of the 3,711 people aboard the Diamond Princess confirmed that 634, or 17 percent, had the virus; 328 of them did not have symptoms at the time of diagnosis. Of those with symptoms, the fatality ratio was 1.9 percent, Russell and colleagues calculate. Of all infected, that ratio was 0.91 percent. Those 70 and older were most vulnerable, with an overall fatality ratio of about 7.3 percent.

Pleas note that on a cruise ship the age is strongly skewed to OLD so in reality 0.5 or less % death rate seems reasonable.