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Does changing the inputs change the outputs ?


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2020 Mar 15, 1:07pm   1,353 views  2 comments

by marcus   ➕follow (7)   💰tip   ignore  

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Does changing the inputs change the outputs ? Why yes, yes it does.

https://time.com/5801726/coronavirus-models-forecast/


Even if the coronavirus was better understood, the most complex simulations in the world would still produce scenarios with a wide variety of severity. Like all models, whether for election outcomes, sporting events or the path of a hurricane, there is variability that cannot be predicted or packaged into a variable — a margin of uncertainty known as “stochastic” events that exhibit random behavior.

“Let’s imagine you are sick with COVID, and you go into a coffee place. You might sneeze there or sneeze two minutes later when you get into the car and you are alone,” Vespignani said. “Unfortunately, nobody will ever be able to model for that. For this reason, all models are stochastic models.”

It is natural to wonder, then, why so much effort goes into computing models that produce such a range of outcomes. Again, the power of the discipline is not in correctly predicting what will occur, but demonstrating how the possible scenarios change based on different inputs. As the maps provided here demonstrate, the effective use of widespread testing, even of asymptomatic individuals, will be critical in mitigating the potentially catastrophic impact. Every variable is a clue, and every adjustment to its value — picture a giant machine with hundreds of levers in different positions — offers another hint as to what can contain a pandemic.

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1   Tenpoundbass   2020 Mar 15, 1:48pm  

It seems people with the highest longevity get hit the hardest.
Mediterranean lots of cases lots of deaths, China lots of cases lots of deaths. Japan citizens are natural germaphobes and the biggest xenophobes on the planet. I saw myself during a 10 hour lay over in Narita. You can't just book a hotel and wander the country. They are particular about who they let in. Or I would suspect if the C-19 did hit Japan it would be devastating.
We don't have the longevity gene, but we do have a higher lifespan that many other countries, so we're doing a little worse than some, but not as bad as Italy.

It's only deadly for those with existing lung infections, it seems it's bonds with some protein and produces Covid-2 which restricts the airways to the lungs. Which are already taxed from congestion. People literally suffocate to death. I bet there's something in people with genetic markers for longevity, that helps facilitate and hasten that process.
As many people get it and never develop Covid-2 even with existing infections. For most the majority, they never feel any symptoms.

The symptoms read like someone coming down with a flu but it never gets there. I bet most people get it, think they are coming down with something. Then the symptoms stop, which are still contagious for 14 days, and they think they don't have anything.

Cher is toast if She gets it.
2   WookieMan   2020 Mar 15, 1:57pm  

Tenpoundbass says
Cher is toast if She gets it.

Lol..

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