patrick.net

CBOEtrader says

Butt numbers, pulled right our yo ass. 150 million people probably WILL contract the virus. At least 80% will have almost no issues. At most, 1% of those remaining will die. I'd bet it's much lower than that.

OK, so that's 150,000,000 x 0.2 x 0.01 = 300,000. About 3.75x the number of flu deaths in 2018.


Reality says

at least 1% die every year

Seems to be 0.86% who die each year:

Death rate: 863.8 deaths per 100,000 population

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm

clambo says

A place in Sunnyvale invented a test which gives results in 45 minutes. (Cepheid)



See what happens when you smart people apply brains to real issues instead of silly apps? Now get cracking on that room temperature superconductor.

Heraclitusstudent says

Reality says

Given the US has a population of 370 million, and life expectancy of about 80, at least 1% die every year, translating to 3.7million people dying every year, or 10k people per day dying!

This is exactly the kind of pathetic guff that makes this board useless.
So 1 million Americans will die from this virus? So what? More die of old age anyway.
Brilliant!

You are having some serious reading comprehension problems. If 3 million people died in the US in 2019, and 3 million people died in the US in 2020, does it matter whether a small portion of them (say 30k of them) get chalked up as dying of "Covid-19" or dying of Flu/Cold? If the total death count doesn't change much at all, the case may well be that the "pandemic" is a hoax: the test could be identifying a conventional Corona-virus (that the first guy in the official CDC story picked up from Seattle Airport, not from Wuhan) . . . or all false positives for an imaginary disease.

If the test were 90% accurate (rapid flu virus test is only 35-55% accurate for adults), testing 3 million dead bodies would yield 300,000 "positives" even if the disease doesn't exist in the population at all! Medical diagnosis is a Bayesian process, heavily influenced by starting assumptions.

In Wuhan, there was a "pandemic"/deadly-epidemic in January, as daily death count far out-numbered the norm that crematoriums that used to operate for only 3-4 hours each day were run 24/7 and couldn't keep up, burning over 1000 (if not multiple thousands) dead bodies per day instead of statistical average of about 200-400 per day for a 10mil pop city. Nothing of the sort is happening in the rest of the world (excepting Bergamo, but that is a tiny city/town, increasing daily death count to exceed capacity 25; the city/town likely has only one burner, as each body takes about 50min; some local condition might be influencing the small sample size); the nearest metro, Milan (pop 4.3 mil for the metro area), is not experiencing the same.

Reality says

If the total death count doesn't change much at all, the case may well be that the "pandemic" is a hoax: the test could be identifying a conventional Corona-virus

How dare you take away the Great Socialist Paradise premise for martial law and bossing the country into an economic train wreck, just to keep wrist flipping LibbyFuck Chicken Littles from running around screaming their little lungs out in panic.

They need a panic to override this needless democracy and these pointless freedoms we have for our own good.

Ceffer says

How dare you take away the Great Socialist Paradise premise for martial law and bossing the country into an economic train wreck

Right. If there was some conspiracy behind this (which I am not saying I think there is), you really think it's the far left behind it ?

Meanwhile, how many trillions are getting pumped in to our economy right now, while the market is holding a fire sale ?

Wuhan virus is likely to save at least 50,000 elderly from dying of the flu this year

They won't be around long enough to catch the flu that would have killed them.

Europe starting to flatten with Italy first.

socal2 says

- We will have a larger immune population
- Our Healthcare system will have more time to adapt with ventilators etc
- We will have better testing
- We will have more drug options to treat the worst cases
- We will ultimately have a vaccine.

In other words, we will see the absolute worst of this disease in America in the next 10 days

Quotes 5 things that have no chance of making a difference in 10 days, but believes the pandemic will miraculously peak in 10 days.

Patrick says

Wuhan virus is likely to save at least 50,000 elderly from dying of the flu this year

Right wing people don't have anyone they love above 60, and think elderly lives don't matter enough to affect their lives choices.

And people in good health below 50 who think they're just gonna sail through this thing without missing a beat are not listening to voices from the front lines. Some younger healthy people ARE dying or have permanently damaged lungs.

Heraclitusstudent says

Some younger healthy people

Even though it's much deadlier than the regular flu, not very many young healthy people die from it. Most of the stories about young people dying seem to include mention of other serious illness, like leukemia, etc.

Patrick says

OK, so that's 150,000,000 x 0.2 x 0.01 = 300,000. About 3.75x the number of flu deaths in 2018.

For Covid-19, this will probably decline in about a year, after the CDC and others review more data and estimate the number of infected who didn't go to the hospital or doctor.