Coronavirus toll could be up to 0.0003 of the US population!
invite response
2020 Mar 29, 9:38pm 17,675 views 376 comments
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131
Onvacation
2020 Apr 2, 2:59pm
Onvacation
2020 Apr 2, 2:59pm
thomasdong1776 says
They do have online civics and government classes where you can learn how our country works.
More votes equals more votes regardless of where they were cast.
They do have online civics and government classes where you can learn how our country works.
132
Reality
2020 Apr 2, 3:02pm
annoyed1 says
The lock-down of the society (while not locking down hospitals) will actually kill more people by artificially selecting the most deadly strains of the disease. We see that in the 2nd hump in the "flattening the curve" graph for St. Louis. The 2nd hump was larger than the 1st hump. Philadelphia didn't have the 2nd hump. Philadelphia had higher death in the 1st hump likely due to much higher population density and higher availability/use of Asprin from the far more common pharmacies in the city; St. Louis was a relatively frontier town back then.
Killing millions of Americans to prevent anticipated "lowered standards of livings leading to shorter lives and suicides" is just plain stupid. Anti-poverty programs could prevent such poverty. Nationalizing health insurance could also prevent shorter lives, as could taxing soda. You have a really bad solution for a problem that you are merely assuming will get worse if we don't let multitudes die. Bad solution.
The lock-down of the society (while not locking down hospitals) will actually kill more people by artificially selecting the most deadly strains of the disease. We see that in the 2nd hump in the "flattening the curve" graph for St. Louis. The 2nd hump was larger than the 1st hump. Philadelphia didn't have the 2nd hump. Philadelphia had higher death in the 1st hump likely due to much higher population density and higher availability/use of Asprin from the far more common pharmacies in the city; St. Louis was a relatively frontier town back then.
133
annoyed1
2020 Apr 2, 3:06pm
Reality says
Mathematicians understand the sigma function. No one is saying that virus infections increase exponentially indefinitely. Obviously you quickly run out of people in the world.
The 3blue1brown video clearly shows this at 5:00. The area of the curve left of the inflection point is, for all practical purposes, exponential. You are nickpicking. The bottom line is that the growth is dramatic until it reaches a maximum value, and you really don't want that max value to be 100% of the population. Optimistically, the fatality rate is 1%. It may be as high as 5%. But even 1% of Americans dying is over 3 million. I'm just saying we might want to avoid that.
www.youtube.com/embed/Kas0tIxDvrg
LOL! "Sigma Distribution Curve" is the Gaussian Curve. It is indeed not an exponential curve on the left side, but the start of it (the left tail) approximates exponential. That's why the mathematically inept mistake it for the exponential curve.
Mathematicians understand the sigma function. No one is saying that virus infections increase exponentially indefinitely. Obviously you quickly run out of people in the world.
The 3blue1brown video clearly shows this at 5:00. The area of the curve left of the inflection point is, for all practical purposes, exponential. You are nickpicking. The bottom line is that the growth is dramatic until it reaches a maximum value, and you really don't want that max value to be 100% of the population. Optimistically, the fatality rate is 1%. It may be as high as 5%. But even 1% of Americans dying is over 3 million. I'm just saying we might want to avoid that.
www.youtube.com/embed/Kas0tIxDvrg
134
Booger
2020 Apr 2, 3:07pm
Booger
2020 Apr 2, 3:07pm
annoyed1 says
Lots of hospitals are still relatively empty.
That is completely wrong. All mathematical models, all simulations, and all expert analysis agree that the least in-person social interaction there is, the more the infection curve will flatten and the fewer people will die as the health care system will not have to perform as much triage
Lots of hospitals are still relatively empty.
136
Onvacation
2020 Apr 2, 3:15pm
Onvacation
2020 Apr 2, 3:15pm
annoyed1 says
And if the virus don't get them the wetbulb will!
Virus that cause epidemics "burn out" by infecting and killing most of a population before they can continue to spread.
And if the virus don't get them the wetbulb will!
137
Onvacation
2020 Apr 2, 3:18pm
Onvacation
2020 Apr 2, 3:18pm
Reality says
The asymptote of disaster!
That's why the mathematically inept mistake it for the exponential curve.
The asymptote of disaster!
138
Reality
2020 Apr 2, 3:21pm
annoyed1 says
Not nit-picking at all. The alarmists were/are claiming it to be an exponential curve. More importantly: the "running out of people in the world" is not limited by the total number of people but by the total number of people not yet exposed to the virus. That's why getting as many people exposed to the virus as quickly as possible is actually a good thing! Given that we have no real effective cure in the hospital. The alarmists were also against the Hydroxychloroquine, which is fairly close to an effective cure! So it's quite clear that the alarmists were trying to kill as many people as possible! i.e. Murderous on top of being Treasonous for trying to kill the economy.
The fatality rate is not anywhere close to 1%, but more likely 0.03%. That means close to 100k Americans, or similar to a bad flu (80k+ for 2018). Nearly 100% of the population will be exposed to the virus, as it will become the 5th communal coronavirus, along with the 4 other types of coronavirus that cause cold and flu every year before 2019.
If there were a highly contagious disease that kills 1% to 5% of the population, locking down still wouldn't work: anyone not exposed to it yet would get it as soon as the lockdown is lifted! So any lockdown without massive deaths taking out the most deadly strains of the virus is just a waste of time. A prolonged lockdown would result in crime waves and social collapse that kill far more than 5% of the population!
Mathematicians understand the sigma function. No one is saying that virus infections increase exponentially indefinitely. Obviously you quickly run out of people in the world.
The 3blue1brown video clearly shows this at 5:00. The area of the curve left of the inflection point is, for all practical purposes, exponential. You are nickpicking.
Not nit-picking at all. The alarmists were/are claiming it to be an exponential curve. More importantly: the "running out of people in the world" is not limited by the total number of people but by the total number of people not yet exposed to the virus. That's why getting as many people exposed to the virus as quickly as possible is actually a good thing! Given that we have no real effective cure in the hospital. The alarmists were also against the Hydroxychloroquine, which is fairly close to an effective cure! So it's quite clear that the alarmists were trying to kill as many people as possible! i.e. Murderous on top of being Treasonous for trying to kill the economy.
The bottom line is that the growth is dramatic until it reaches a maximum value, and you really don't want that max value to be 100% of the population. Optimistically, the fatality rate is 1%. It may be as high as 5%. But even 1% of Americans dying is over 3 million.
The fatality rate is not anywhere close to 1%, but more likely 0.03%. That means close to 100k Americans, or similar to a bad flu (80k+ for 2018). Nearly 100% of the population will be exposed to the virus, as it will become the 5th communal coronavirus, along with the 4 other types of coronavirus that cause cold and flu every year before 2019.
If there were a highly contagious disease that kills 1% to 5% of the population, locking down still wouldn't work: anyone not exposed to it yet would get it as soon as the lockdown is lifted! So any lockdown without massive deaths taking out the most deadly strains of the virus is just a waste of time. A prolonged lockdown would result in crime waves and social collapse that kill far more than 5% of the population!
139
Reality
2020 Apr 2, 3:27pm
annoyed1 says
We are at the end of the flu/cold/coronavirus season!
If a lot of people flock to the hospitals, they will get the virus at high viral load! Just like in Wuhan and in Bergamo, the only two cities in the world that experienced multiple times the normal local winter daily death count. The alarmists/exaggerators were/are literally screaming fire in a crowded theater in their desire to start a stampede in order to kill people! They desired to topple Trump, but their own stupidity is actually making Trump's re-election a certainty: because in times of crisis, people flock to the flag and their existing leaders.
Lots of hospitals are still relatively empty.
Again, exponential growth.
We are at the end of the flu/cold/coronavirus season!
If a lot of people flock to the hospitals, they will get the virus at high viral load! Just like in Wuhan and in Bergamo, the only two cities in the world that experienced multiple times the normal local winter daily death count. The alarmists/exaggerators were/are literally screaming fire in a crowded theater in their desire to start a stampede in order to kill people! They desired to topple Trump, but their own stupidity is actually making Trump's re-election a certainty: because in times of crisis, people flock to the flag and their existing leaders.
140
EBGuy
2020 Apr 2, 4:00pm
Overall fatality rate in South Korea is 1.69%. This is how it breaks down by age.
141
Reality
2020 Apr 2, 4:22pm
ThreeBays says
The overwhelming majority of cases of exposure/infection result in no symptoms or very mild symptoms. "Confirmed cases" is not at all the total number of exposures. The Diamond Princess case showed us that there can be as many as 70-80% of the population out there having had exposure but no illness (i.e. they tested negative despite having mingled with carriers for weeks! proving their body had the antibodies that could fight it off). Death with corona-virus of any kind doesn't mean death with COVID-19, much less death due to COVID-19. Re-examining the Italian cases showed that only 5% of the allegedly dead with the corona-virus was actually due to COVID-19.
The total daily death from all causes is not showing any spike anywhere in the world except for Wuhan (a metro of about 10 million people) and Bergamo (a town of about 120k people). Both spikes were likely due to people flocking to hospitals and getting themselves exposed at high viral load as they waited in hospitals for hours! There is no pandemic when there is no spike in total daily death count (3x normal or more, as normal bad flu year can kill 3x or more than usual). Classifying the same comparable number of daily dead bodies whichever way is quite a meaningless exercise. The whole thing is quite possibly a hoax, and the propagandists caused more flu deaths than there would have been in a bad flu year as they scared people into rushing into hospitals.
COVID-19 is now in the millionaire club with over 1M confirmed cases. 52,892 known deaths. That puts the known fatality ratio of 5.3%.
Deaths lag cases by 2 to 3 weeks. Two weeks ago there were only 245K confirmed cases, which would put the forward fatality ratio at 21.5%. Eesh.
The $10 Trillion dollar question is what % of cases are unknown.
The overwhelming majority of cases of exposure/infection result in no symptoms or very mild symptoms. "Confirmed cases" is not at all the total number of exposures. The Diamond Princess case showed us that there can be as many as 70-80% of the population out there having had exposure but no illness (i.e. they tested negative despite having mingled with carriers for weeks! proving their body had the antibodies that could fight it off). Death with corona-virus of any kind doesn't mean death with COVID-19, much less death due to COVID-19. Re-examining the Italian cases showed that only 5% of the allegedly dead with the corona-virus was actually due to COVID-19.
The total daily death from all causes is not showing any spike anywhere in the world except for Wuhan (a metro of about 10 million people) and Bergamo (a town of about 120k people). Both spikes were likely due to people flocking to hospitals and getting themselves exposed at high viral load as they waited in hospitals for hours! There is no pandemic when there is no spike in total daily death count (3x normal or more, as normal bad flu year can kill 3x or more than usual). Classifying the same comparable number of daily dead bodies whichever way is quite a meaningless exercise. The whole thing is quite possibly a hoax, and the propagandists caused more flu deaths than there would have been in a bad flu year as they scared people into rushing into hospitals.
142
Reality
2020 Apr 2, 4:29pm
Tim Aurora says
If the population were indeed coronavirus-virgins, the after mingling for weeks, the passengers on the Diamond Princess should have been 100% tested positive, but the actual tests yielde only 20-30% That means the 70-80% of the passengers had immunity from exposure earlier in the season.
Is that your conclusion "Einstein" or do you have reference to the link.
If the population were indeed coronavirus-virgins, the after mingling for weeks, the passengers on the Diamond Princess should have been 100% tested positive, but the actual tests yielde only 20-30% That means the 70-80% of the passengers had immunity from exposure earlier in the season.
143
WookieMan
2020 Apr 2, 4:39pm
WookieMan
2020 Apr 2, 4:39pm
Reality says
Good luck. I fear you're talking to a wall at this point.... Links would be nice, but your reasoning is logical in my opinion and non-political. I like the counter argument though... lol.
Tim Aurora says
"Confirmed cases" is not at all the total number of exposures.
Good luck. I fear you're talking to a wall at this point.... Links would be nice, but your reasoning is logical in my opinion and non-political. I like the counter argument though... lol.
Tim Aurora says
You are on a roll "Einstein"
144
Onvacation
2020 Apr 2, 4:51pm
Onvacation
2020 Apr 2, 4:51pm
annoyed1 says
No they don't.
50 years after Johnson's "war on poverty" the poverty rate has changed little. What has changed a lot is the out of wedlock birthrate, the explosion of entitlements (housing vouchers, food stamps, etc.), and the deterioration of inner city conditions.
What progressives don't understand is that wealth must be created AND maintained by the hard work of productive people. Wealth is not just a "thing" that can be redistributed without negative consequence. If you kill the hen for a BBQ your not getting any more eggs.
Anti-poverty programs could prevent such poverty.
No they don't.
50 years after Johnson's "war on poverty" the poverty rate has changed little. What has changed a lot is the out of wedlock birthrate, the explosion of entitlements (housing vouchers, food stamps, etc.), and the deterioration of inner city conditions.
What progressives don't understand is that wealth must be created AND maintained by the hard work of productive people. Wealth is not just a "thing" that can be redistributed without negative consequence. If you kill the hen for a BBQ your not getting any more eggs.
145
marcus
2020 Apr 2, 5:01pm
marcus
2020 Apr 2, 5:01pm
ThreeBays says
You're a fast learner
annoyed1 saysI haven't been on this site long, but I get the distinct impression that if the democrats were in power, the people here would be calling the pandemic the worst thing in all of history.
You're a fast learner
146
WookieMan
2020 Apr 2, 9:36pm
WookieMan
2020 Apr 2, 9:36pm
ThreeBays says
What the fuck??? No one was talking to you.... Don't give a fuck what someone else was acknowledging in what I quoted in my comment. Get over yourself brah.
WookieMan saysReality says"Confirmed cases" is not at all the total number of exposures.
Good luck. I fear you're talking to a wall at this point.... Links would be nice, but your reasoning is logical in my opinion and non-political. I like the counter argument though... lol.
Considering I was acknowledging that fact in the post he quoted, these comments are hilarious.
What the fuck??? No one was talking to you.... Don't give a fuck what someone else was acknowledging in what I quoted in my comment. Get over yourself brah.
147
goofus
2020 Apr 3, 11:30am
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (scroll down to the graphs)
We're about to hit the 0.0003 (a.k.a., 10,000 deaths) by the end of the weekend. The US is continuing its exponential climb in both infections and deaths -- a rate higher than either Italy's or Spain's -- without any downward shift.
Conservatives, please take this seriously. There's a "nothingburger" denialism on the right, similar to the left's "hug a Chinese person / fight xenophobia" laxity. The US is doing none of the mitigation efforts, beyond "self-quarantine," that east Asian countries have. We may doubt China's numbers (and I do, to some extent), but South Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Singapore report similar successes in keeping COVID under control. It wasn't herd immunity, either, accounting for the low infection and death rates -- S Korea tested 338,000 as of March 24th, and only 3% were positive. Additionally, the numbers flattened too quickly to reflect population-scale immunity.
We in the US must adopt what worked in E Asian countries: widespread availability of masks, medications (HCQ, azithromycin, zinc), testing, mandatory quarantine of positives, and urban spraying.
I see the CDC's weak response -- no foresight on masks, defective tests, no clinical trials of promising medication (apart from the most expensive, Gilead's Remdesivir), no availability of hydroxychloroquine -- as the fault of the CDC. Trump can be blamed insofar as he keeps worthless hacks like Anthony "masks don't work / hydroxychloroquine is anecdotal" Fauci on his task force. Fauci btw was a Clinton Foundation board member and political opportunist.
We're about to hit the 0.0003 (a.k.a., 10,000 deaths) by the end of the weekend. The US is continuing its exponential climb in both infections and deaths -- a rate higher than either Italy's or Spain's -- without any downward shift.
Conservatives, please take this seriously. There's a "nothingburger" denialism on the right, similar to the left's "hug a Chinese person / fight xenophobia" laxity. The US is doing none of the mitigation efforts, beyond "self-quarantine," that east Asian countries have. We may doubt China's numbers (and I do, to some extent), but South Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Singapore report similar successes in keeping COVID under control. It wasn't herd immunity, either, accounting for the low infection and death rates -- S Korea tested 338,000 as of March 24th, and only 3% were positive. Additionally, the numbers flattened too quickly to reflect population-scale immunity.
We in the US must adopt what worked in E Asian countries: widespread availability of masks, medications (HCQ, azithromycin, zinc), testing, mandatory quarantine of positives, and urban spraying.
I see the CDC's weak response -- no foresight on masks, defective tests, no clinical trials of promising medication (apart from the most expensive, Gilead's Remdesivir), no availability of hydroxychloroquine -- as the fault of the CDC. Trump can be blamed insofar as he keeps worthless hacks like Anthony "masks don't work / hydroxychloroquine is anecdotal" Fauci on his task force. Fauci btw was a Clinton Foundation board member and political opportunist.
148
WookieMan
2020 Apr 3, 4:02pm
WookieMan
2020 Apr 3, 4:02pm
First personal suicide I know by overdose on drugs. Wasn’t a druggie at all.... had kids and a lot of life and good family support structure she couldn’t see during these old people dying times.
For my personal sphere:
CV 2 - suicide 1
Something else is gonna hickey stick or exponentially rise. Wake the fuck up people. We’re gonna end up killing double the people we need to and lose some people that can actually produce....
For my personal sphere:
CV 2 - suicide 1
Something else is gonna hickey stick or exponentially rise. Wake the fuck up people. We’re gonna end up killing double the people we need to and lose some people that can actually produce....
149
mell
2020 Apr 3, 5:45pm
goofus says
Not true. Most states are coping relatively fine with their own measures. The majority of the cases responsible for the spike are in NY. When NY spikes total cases will recede as well.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (scroll down to the graphs)
We're about to hit the 0.0003 (a.k.a., 10,000 deaths) by the end of the weekend. The US is continuing its exponential climb in both infections and deaths -- a rate higher than either Italy's or Spain's -- without any downward shift.
Conservatives, please take this seriously. There's a "nothingburger" denialism on the right, similar to the left's "hug a Chinese person / fight xenophobia" laxity. The US is doing none of the mitigation efforts, beyond "self-quarantine," that east Asian countries have. We may doubt China's numbers (and I do, to some extent), but South Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Singapore report similar successes in keeping COVID under control. It wasn't herd immunity, either, accounting for the low infection and death rates -- S Korea tested 338,000 as of Mar...
Not true. Most states are coping relatively fine with their own measures. The majority of the cases responsible for the spike are in NY. When NY spikes total cases will recede as well.
150
BoomAndBustCycle
2020 Apr 3, 5:56pm
The lesson that needs to be learned is that our healthcare workers are going to bear the brunt of this and future pandemics. And Trump downplaying the concerns of healthcare workers is shameful. If 2-3% of otherwise healthy nurses and doctors die from being overly exposed to this virus that's on poor logistics. Just be grateful this is basically a dry run for a far worse pandemic in a few years. If this virus attacked babies and school age kids... as bad as it attacked the elderly.... you would be burned at the stake for your lack of concern.
151
Eman
2020 Apr 3, 6:07pm
Eman
2020 Apr 3, 6:07pm
Mandate everyone wears a mask outside of their house and send them back to work. Practice social distance at work. Those who are sick, stay home and self quarantine. This SIP is BS and is killing people and the economy.
152
Patrick
2020 Apr 3, 6:08pm
Patrick
2020 Apr 3, 6:08pm
E-man says
Agreed.
Mandate everyone wears a mask outside of their house and send them back to work. Practice social distance at work. Those who are sick, stay home and self quarantine. This SIP is BS and is killing people and the economy.
Agreed.
153
Onvacation
2020 Apr 3, 6:09pm
Onvacation
2020 Apr 3, 6:09pm
BoomAndBustCycle says
Really? Trump is responsible for the (hypothetical) deaths of health workers that die from the Corona virus? If I were a health care worker I would be responsible for my own safety. And Trump can't be blamed for the lack of gloves and masks as much as the people that allowed so much of our economy to be outsourced to China and other polluting slave labor countries.
Trump downplaying the concerns of healthcare workers is shameful. If 2-3% of otherwise healthy nurses and doctors die from being overly exposed to this virus that's on poor logistics.
Really? Trump is responsible for the (hypothetical) deaths of health workers that die from the Corona virus? If I were a health care worker I would be responsible for my own safety. And Trump can't be blamed for the lack of gloves and masks as much as the people that allowed so much of our economy to be outsourced to China and other polluting slave labor countries.
154
Onvacation
2020 Apr 3, 6:12pm
Onvacation
2020 Apr 3, 6:12pm
BoomAndBustCycle says
Agreed.
But I'm afraid the virus that will get us is the one we don't see coming. It's probably gonna cause bleedin' from the eyes or an unquenchable hunger for live human flesh rather than a cough and a headache.
Just be grateful this is basically a dry run for a far worse pandemic in a few years.
Agreed.
But I'm afraid the virus that will get us is the one we don't see coming. It's probably gonna cause bleedin' from the eyes or an unquenchable hunger for live human flesh rather than a cough and a headache.
155
mell
2020 Apr 3, 6:16pm
Onvacation says
Agreed that was pure TDS. Also under normal conditions nurse is one of the best jobs, money and perks wise. If at all the globalist left is responsible for the lack of gear for the brave Healthcare workers. If Trump had been in office the last 20 years we'd be producing many more goods in the US and having far fewer supply chain issues.
BoomAndBustCycle saysTrump downplaying the concerns of healthcare workers is shameful. If 2-3% of otherwise healthy nurses and doctors die from being overly exposed to this virus that's on poor logistics.
Really? Trump is responsible for the (hypothetical) deaths of health workers that die from the Corona virus? If I were a health care worker I would be responsible for my own safety. And Trump can't be blamed for the lack of gloves and masks as much as the people that allowed so much of our economy to be outsourced to China and other polluting slave labor countries.
Agreed that was pure TDS. Also under normal conditions nurse is one of the best jobs, money and perks wise. If at all the globalist left is responsible for the lack of gear for the brave Healthcare workers. If Trump had been in office the last 20 years we'd be producing many more goods in the US and having far fewer supply chain issues.
156
HeadSet
2020 Apr 3, 8:16pm
HeadSet
2020 Apr 3, 8:16pm
If Trump had been in office the last 20 years we'd be producing many more goods in the US and having far fewer supply chain issues.
+1,000
+1,000
157
Cash
2020 Apr 3, 9:34pm
Is this a hoax or what? https://ncov2019.live/data/asia Check out India 1 of the most filthiest, congested, near zero personal space not to mention the raw sewage and feces laden trails with a population of 1,352,642,280. How is this so?
158
BoomAndBustCycle
2020 Apr 3, 9:34pm
HeadSet says
And we would be $100000 Trillion in debt after he bankrupted America for the 5th time.... like he did all his casinos.
If Trump had been in office the last 20 years we'd be producing many more goods in the US and having far fewer supply chain issues.
+1,000
And we would be $100000 Trillion in debt after he bankrupted America for the 5th time.... like he did all his casinos.
159
BoomAndBustCycle
2020 Apr 3, 9:39pm
mell says
You enjoy sucking Trumps cock way too much! Yes he’s responsible... they are US citizens... any fucking CEO in America would take responsibility for his logistic failures... but not this moron in chief.
Really? Trump is responsible for the (hypothetical) deaths of health workers that die from the Corona virus? If I were a health care worker I would be responsible for my own safety. And Trump can't be blamed for the lack of gloves and masks as much as the people that allowed so much of our economy to be outsourced to China and other polluting slave labor countries.
You enjoy sucking Trumps cock way too much! Yes he’s responsible... they are US citizens... any fucking CEO in America would take responsibility for his logistic failures... but not this moron in chief.
160
WookieMan
2020 Apr 4, 3:34am
WookieMan
2020 Apr 4, 3:34am
TL:DR - 2 deaths and 1 other confirmed case in my sphere is nothing for this virus. Two deaths and someone with the flu in a months time is pretty typical...
ThreeBays says
Huh? People that I personally know.... The two deaths are friends of friends and I only know of ONE other tested case that's totally alive. 3 total cases.... out of a 2nd level network that reaches easily into the thousands. And I again, I don't know these people at all.
The deaths were a friend's coworker in a large company my friend kind of knew and my babysitter's grandma, of which I've met neither of them. Read better. No one I PERSONALLY know has this. And between my wife and I that's a lot of people.
ThreeBays says
There's not much evidence for this. There's demographic, living conditions, transmission rates, etc. 90% of which isn't understood. You don't have to believe me but I have contacts at high levels on the frontline (think Washington State). Yes this kills, but the virus has been amongst us for MONTHS. This thing called spring break happened. We then shut everything down. Where do you think the 18-25 year olds most likely went? Mom and Dad's house after having been in cruise ship like dorm rooms or partying in hotels across the country. Heck some live or stay with Grandma during down times. I sure that had nothing to do with our current spike...
Again, we can all agree it's deadly. The reaction has likely made this thing worse. Probably too late now, but 50+ people just stay home. Under 50 don't see those older than you. Keep up social distancing (the distance from each other aspect), maybe wear a mask if you're inclined, keep good hygiene, stay away from hospitals unless you're completely incapacitated and this would have likely already been water under the bridge with much less economic damage at this point.
Very few people are doing what I've listed above. As someone not reliant on work, I've done my part and only left my home 3 times, for essential items since March 15. So as of tomorrow once per week for a 3 week total.
ThreeBays says
You said yourself you knew almost nobody confirmed with CV yet.
Huh? People that I personally know.... The two deaths are friends of friends and I only know of ONE other tested case that's totally alive. 3 total cases.... out of a 2nd level network that reaches easily into the thousands. And I again, I don't know these people at all.
The deaths were a friend's coworker in a large company my friend kind of knew and my babysitter's grandma, of which I've met neither of them. Read better. No one I PERSONALLY know has this. And between my wife and I that's a lot of people.
ThreeBays says
Sadly, lifting the lid would make everywhere look like New York in pretty short order.
There's not much evidence for this. There's demographic, living conditions, transmission rates, etc. 90% of which isn't understood. You don't have to believe me but I have contacts at high levels on the frontline (think Washington State). Yes this kills, but the virus has been amongst us for MONTHS. This thing called spring break happened. We then shut everything down. Where do you think the 18-25 year olds most likely went? Mom and Dad's house after having been in cruise ship like dorm rooms or partying in hotels across the country. Heck some live or stay with Grandma during down times. I sure that had nothing to do with our current spike...
Again, we can all agree it's deadly. The reaction has likely made this thing worse. Probably too late now, but 50+ people just stay home. Under 50 don't see those older than you. Keep up social distancing (the distance from each other aspect), maybe wear a mask if you're inclined, keep good hygiene, stay away from hospitals unless you're completely incapacitated and this would have likely already been water under the bridge with much less economic damage at this point.
Very few people are doing what I've listed above. As someone not reliant on work, I've done my part and only left my home 3 times, for essential items since March 15. So as of tomorrow once per week for a 3 week total.
161
Blue
2020 Apr 4, 9:50am
Cash says
This is after massive Muslims Found Licking both sides of Spoons, Plates in restaurants (there are plenty of videos still online) and spitting on food, currency bills etc to Spread COVID-19 virus and spread throughout the country after international Muslim congregation in new Delhi last week by deifying lock down rule. Muslims are super filthy and spreaders on purpose.
Is this a hoax or what? https://ncov2019.live/data/asia Check out India 1 of the most filthiest, congested, near zero personal space not to mention the raw sewage and feces laden trails with a population of 1,352,642,280. How is this so?
This is after massive Muslims Found Licking both sides of Spoons, Plates in restaurants (there are plenty of videos still online) and spitting on food, currency bills etc to Spread COVID-19 virus and spread throughout the country after international Muslim congregation in new Delhi last week by deifying lock down rule. Muslims are super filthy and spreaders on purpose.
163
mell
2020 Apr 4, 11:39am
APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostakovitch says
Always good for practical advice!
SHoot all the old people in the face and RALLY!
Always good for practical advice!
164
Patrick
2020 Apr 4, 11:41am
Patrick
2020 Apr 4, 11:41am
The stars on this graph show when national lock downs started.
They lock downs do not look like they changed the arc of the disease at all.
From https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
They lock downs do not look like they changed the arc of the disease at all.
From https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
165
mell
2020 Apr 4, 11:47am
Patrick says
The problem is that likely many cases already circulated by that time and there's a testing overhang of days if not weeks since the rapid tests were just introduced. While not a big fan I do think the lockdowns are working, CA started way earlier than NY and is relatively flat now. A better way though would be to allow all recovered to go back to work and frolic and tell everyone else who hasn't had it to wear masks if they go mingle and to work. As well as maybe extend the SIP for people over a certain age and high risk groups while hospitals are busy. Also distribute Zithromax and chloroquine to every household to be taken on any signs of covid-19/pneumonia.
The stars on this graph show when national lock downs started.
They lock downs do not look like they changed the arc of the disease at all.
From
The problem is that likely many cases already circulated by that time and there's a testing overhang of days if not weeks since the rapid tests were just introduced. While not a big fan I do think the lockdowns are working, CA started way earlier than NY and is relatively flat now. A better way though would be to allow all recovered to go back to work and frolic and tell everyone else who hasn't had it to wear masks if they go mingle and to work. As well as maybe extend the SIP for people over a certain age and high risk groups while hospitals are busy. Also distribute Zithromax and chloroquine to every household to be taken on any signs of covid-19/pneumonia.
166
marcus
2020 Apr 4, 11:56am
marcus
2020 Apr 4, 11:56am
Patrick says
Compared to what ?
Do you know what an exponential growth graph looks like ?
I guess it does appear to be true that doing the lock down didn't change the future from being what it would have been with the lock down. That's true. .
They lock downs do not look like they changed the arc of the disease at all.
Compared to what ?
Do you know what an exponential growth graph looks like ?
I guess it does appear to be true that doing the lock down didn't change the future from being what it would have been with the lock down. That's true. .
168
Onvacation
2020 Apr 4, 1:17pm
Onvacation
2020 Apr 4, 1:17pm
marcus says
Your logic is irrefutable.
I guess it does appear to be true that doing the lock down didn't change the future from being what it would have been with the lock down.
Your logic is irrefutable.
169
marcus
2020 Apr 4, 2:41pm
marcus
2020 Apr 4, 2:41pm
ThreeBays says
Good point.
jazz_music says
We've got some statisticians here.
These are log based graphs
Good point.
jazz_music says
A year or 2 from now you should get a good fit of this infection history, for example, with a third or fourth order polynomial curve.
We've got some statisticians here.
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Wait, 3 percent of 1 percent?
Yes, 100 times smaller than 3 percent.
Say 100,000 die out of 300M people (actually, the population is even larger than that). That's 0.0003.
So, since 0.0086 of the US dies every year on average, this could bump up the US death rate by 3 / 86 = 3.5% this year.
Except not it wouldn't even be that much, because a large fraction of those who die weren't going to make it through a normal 2020 anyway.
It's still not at all clear that this was worth imploding the economy for. Remember that 81,000 died of the flu in 2018 and no one even blinked.