patrick.net

The experiment is about how to ride the public panic wild horse. They may get tossed a few times, but are they getting better at it or worse? Will the backlash be painful, or will the vampires in the shadows manage to stay out of the sunlight again?

I would be surprised if there isn't extreme resistance brewing somewhere. So far, every whisper of common sense has been drowned out with renewed agitprop bullhorns blaring even louder, as per the custom of the fake news. Patnet has it's own collection of agitprop repeating stations apparently getting their marching orders and fake news from Subversive Kommie Kontrol Central somewhere.

I been done did admitting it.

jazz_music says

No need to panic just because we got the most sick and dead people in the world.

Perhaps that is somewhat related to obesity rates, no?

jazz_music says

No excuses

exactly - if a person is a smoking land whale and has problem surviving a common cold, we should not shut down the society so that s/he can keep stuffing their piehole. No excuses, just go to fucking gym.

WTF is wrong with leftoids? They hate America! Back in the days the war time radio would blare the tunes of "we can do it" while often the reality was grim and not reflected by the propaganda, but at least it gave people hope and will to fight. Today it's the opposite, the leftoid airwaves constantly blare "you can't do anything without asking your govt first! everyone is dying! our economy must die and our babies need to be aborted! orange! man! bad!" This is far worse, turn off your TV and radio and vote Trump 2020. Jumpstart the economy by re-opening now and Make America great (once) again!

jazz_music says

Killing people for ROI is a recurring problem with capitalism and that’s why the regulations we HAD were so necessary

True statement

ThreeBays says

Lol. Rightists don't want the truth, they want fake positive propaganda. Makes sense. It'll be gone by April like a miracle.

You should tune into Cuomo's daily uptates in New York. Facts, facts, facts. People understand where we are, understand where we're going, that's how you inspire real optimism. Not with fake news that pander to a minority of crackpots.

I think New York got caught exaggerating the number of deaths related to Covid-19. Funny no cancer deaths, pneumonia deaths, etc. They all got swept under the Covid-19 umbrella. I think everyone wants facts, but solid facts.

The H1N1 pandemic was in 2009. The number of people 70 years or older has hugely increased in the intervening 11 years. I have seen no comparisons made between Covid-19 and the typical seasonal flu based on ages of the victims adjusted for population growth of the elderly. Because the facts don't support the media narrative, I doubt we will ever see such a comparison.

jazz_music says

Straight up lie

ya think

Some of it was driven by fear of lawyers.

Is an employer really going to take the risk of making people come to work? What if the one fat fuck gets the super-cold and dies? LAWSUIT!

But more of it is driven by political one-upmanship. What political leader wants to let the other side get credit for doing more to protect the public?

Hell, they're all protecting us so much now they're going to kill us.

Yes, like WaPo fanning the flames of idiocy saying that the mortality rate of those catching Covid-19 was 3.4% not the 2.3% reported by the Chinese government.

The media scared the shit out of the politicians. Even Trump couldn't stand up to the media onslaught.

ThreeBays says

You should tune into Cuomo's daily uptates in New York. Facts, facts, facts. People understand where we are, understand where we're going, that's how you inspire real optimism. Not with fake news that pander to a minority of crackpots.

That's the man who claimed all hospitals would be over-run, and NYC would need 30,000 ventilators . . . whereas in reality the peak requirement for both beds and ventilators are a small fraction of those numbers. The entire panic is fake news. The need to lock-down is fake news. The overly simplistic models were fake news. The lock-down is preventing the population from keeping up in the arms race between the corona-virus vs. human immune system among the locked-down population, artificially selecting the more deadly mutations that are over-represented in the hospitals (which are exempted from the lock-down). The entire epidemiology model and immunology model embraced by Cuomo, Fauci, Gates and the entire fear-mongering idiocracy is ass-backwards assuming static non-mutating virus and perpetually naive human population, neither of which exist in the world of RNA virus vs. human immune system. The lock-down prescription those idiocrats prescribe directly leads to future waves (due to population immunity falling behind the corona-virus mutation due to the lock-down) of outbreaks and unnecessary additional deaths!

ThreeBays says

Misc says

I think New York got caught exaggerating the number of deaths related to Covid-19. Funny no cancer deaths, pneumonia deaths, etc. They all got swept under the Covid-19 umbrella. I think everyone wants facts, but solid facts.

That's also debunked. Actual total mortality in NYC shows significant undercount.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html?auth=login-google

The total death count of all causes in the country and in NY are not seeing any significant increase (in fact a decrease overall). What kind of "pandemic" is it that would lead to lower total deaths in the population during its time? The "disease of staying alive" broke out? Whether classifying a dead body as due to CV or due to flu is quite subjective in most cases. The total death count didn't increase much indicates that "pandemic" is mostly in people's imagination / bureaucratic book-keeping.

ThreeBays says

You should tune into Cuomo's daily uptates in New York. Facts, facts, facts. People understand where we are, understand where we're going, that's how you inspire real optimism. Not with fake news that pander to a minority of crackpots.

You trust any of these fucks? You're being sarcastic, right? I don't trust Trump or Cuomo. The guy is the governor of New York and I'm not, so kudos to him. But to put any faith or believe anything he's saying is hysterical. You couldn't write a better comedy. Facts, facts, facts, lol.

ThreeBays says

Misc says

Yes, like WaPo fanning the flames of idiocy saying that the mortality rate of those catching Covid-19 was 3.4%.

The media scared the shit out of the politicians. Even Trump couldn't stand up to the media onslaught.

The government has their own modeling and people who can read studies. Anybody with two brain cells could tell the WHO 3.4% is the confirmed CFR not IFR, and the difference between them.

Politicians believed the 3.4% death rate, that's why the lock downs. The media had them believing millions upon millions would die.

Reality says

Whether classifying a dead body as due to CV or due to flu is quite subjective in most cases. The total death count didn't increase much indicates that "pandemic" is mostly in people's imagination / bureaucratic book-keeping.

Oh boy, you know you're going to get the army of lockdown baby boys coming after you now. "We locked down so there are less auto accident deaths, this virus will kill your grass if you fuck with it!!!!! Raaaahhhhhhh!!!!"

ThreeBays says

Reality says

The total death count of all causes in the country and in NY are not seeing any significant increase (in fact a decrease overall). What kind of "pandemic" is it that would lead to lower total deaths in the population during its time?

Lies. NYC has 4 times the normal deaths in a one month period.

What's the solution? Shut down one of the top five financial centers in the world indefinitely?

The 800lbs gorilla in the room also wants to mention that while we have a lot of young people, we have a shitload of people coming into their prime to die. Numbers for deaths are going to jump the next decade or so, regardless of this virus. Part of this could simply be demographics and health levels of that demographic. We can't hide in basements thinking we're going to stop these people from dying.

No hospital has been overwhelmed. None of the convention centers and ships have seen even a handful of patients. If you can't see you're being conned you're blind. Or maybe you're trying to con us. I don't know.

ThreeBays says

I love it. The covid-19 denier circlejerk works like this:

- present biased opinions and fringe data
- misrepresent facts
- get debunked
- switch to who cares / what are you gonna do / you're a pussy argument
- forget everything tomorrow
- repeat from the top

Please present something to us that is true and not "fringe data" on this. It's all fringe data at this point and I think that's what you're missing. Hence why I link very little about this. Your other lines are all based on your "fringe data" so not sure the point.

We have massive governmental and global agencies doing complete 180's within day/weeks of making a statement or an actual recommendation. We have ZERO clue when China released this fucker and may never know. We're all arguing/debating over something that's too new and we're blind. The data is too raw or fresh to be definitive in most case. The easiest thing we know is who it's killing. We should make adjustments from there. Not that difficult.

ThreeBays says

Reality says

The total death count of all causes in the country and in NY are not seeing any significant increase (in fact a decrease overall). What kind of "pandemic" is it that would lead to lower total deaths in the population during its time?

Lies. NYC has 4 times the normal deaths in a one month period.

You are once again showing your own lie. NYC being a city of close to 10 million people should be seeing close to 100k deaths per year; that translates to about 300 deaths per day! Late winter and early spring days tend to have much higher death count than the other seasons due to the heavy toll of flu and common cold on the elderly in winter; it's not unusual to see late winter and early spring daily death count double the normal daily average; translating to 400-600 deaths per day for New York in late winter / early spring. That over 2 months should have translated to about 30,000 deaths in NYC in a normal mid-Feb-to-mid-Apr window! The total Corona Virus death count in NYC is currently standing at less than 11,000. Where is your "4 time the normal deaths" coming from? Where are the 120,000 dead bodies from those two months? or even 60,000 dead bodies from one month?

@CBOEtrader When one of the most pro-lock downers proclaims ...

The government has their own modeling and people who can read studies. Anybody with two brain cells could tell the WHO 3.4% is the confirmed CFR not IFR, and the difference between them.

It's pretty much an admission that, yep, the corona panic is a lie. I'll let you look up the current estimate of the IFR.

ThreeBays says

WookieMan says

We have massive governmental and global agencies doing complete 180's within day/weeks of making a statement or an actual recommendation.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but until now most or all the recommendations have gotten more strict over time not less strict.

We didn't open by Easter, and we're not going to reopen fully at May 1st either. So far all of this has been over optimistic.

The only thing that was over pessimistic is the peak hospitalizations before we leveled off - so the model / assumptions for how well social distancing was going to work was over pessimistic there.

... or the model assumptions for the hospitalization/death rates for the virus could have been way overboard

ThreeBays says

For example the 4x increase in NYC all cause mortality is as close to a fact as you could get. It debunks a swath of arguments about over-counting covid deaths.

On mortality rates, we don't know yet exactly but there are minimums that can be inferred like literally 0.25% of NYC population died already and that keeps going up - it's just half way through the curve.

What kind of bullshit is this? Because the average life span is around 80yrs, less than 100, about 1% of the population die every year. That for NYC with population close to 10mil means 100k people die every year, 0.25% of population die every 3 months on average (due to about 1% die every year). Late winter / early spring have higher daily death count than the rest of the year, due to the heavy toll of seasonal flu and cold on the elderly and infirm, by a factor of 1.5x to 2x. So it is not at all unusual for 0.25% of NYC population to die in two months during mid-Feb to mid-Apr in most years, even when there was no Covid-19.

Now your "4x increase" claim is utterly false: the total Covid-19 death count up to this point is less than 11,000 for NYC. 0.25% of NYC population is at least 22,000. The total Covid-19 death count is barely 50% of normal total death count between mid-Feb through mid-Apr. Where is your "4x increase" coming from? Where are the other 100,000 dead bodies? Your math is off by an order of magnitude!

ThreeBays says

Correct me if I'm wrong, but until now most or all the recommendations have gotten more strict over time not less strict.

It's the boiling the frog slowly tactic. If it was known the lock-down was going to be a long one at the beginning, the idea would have been rejected outright. The progression has little to do with science, but everything to do with political machination and deliberate crime against humanity. By your logic, the Nazis' policy against Jews became more strict over time, therefore Nazis were correct in pointing out Jews were the problem and only under-estimated the "danger" of Jews. The reason for the incremental tightening was deliberate crime against humanity, the first step of which was kept less harsh in order to be acceptable to society at large.

We didn't open by Easter, and we're not going to reopen fully at May 1st either. So far all of this has been over optimistic.

The only thing that was over pessimistic is the peak hospitalizations, because the social distancing worked better than expected.

Utter nonsense. It takes a week or two between initial exposure to getting sick enough to be hospitalized. "Social distancing" was barely implemented when the hospitalization numbers were proven to be way below the fraudulent "models" of stupidity.

ThreeBays says

In NYC it's around 0.7% because of a younger population. About 60K per year.

For period Mar. 11 - Apr. 18.
Expected deaths 5,800

Goes to show the type of fraud you are pulling. Even if we take your 60k/yr number at face value, and assuming people die at the same rate throughout the year, (60,000 / 365) * 39 = 6410, not 5800

Then we have take into account late winter to early spring have higher daily death rate than the rest of the year, often by a factor of 1.5x to 2x, sometimes 3x or higher in a bad flu year.



ThreeBays says

Actual deaths 23,000.

Where is that 23,000 number from? Are you including the random "add-back" of thousands of the bureaucrats tossed in a week ago from many previous weeks? i.e. many of which were not actually dying between March 11 and April 18. How many of those deaths were shipped in from nearby states? e.g. NJ and CT? As many NYC hospitals are serving regional and even international patients.



ThreeBays says

17,200 is 0.25% of the 80% herd immunity level of the population. A very generous assumption.

What are you trying to say? Do you just string together a bunch of numbers and pretend you are trying to express an idea?

Keep in mind: NYC is a third-world urban hell-hole nowadays quite unlike the rest of the USA. Not even the rest of New York (state) is like NYC. It might make sense to lock down NYC if that's what the Democrats (accounting for 90+% of the population in the city) want (lock the city down forever if that's what they wish, and the rest of the country will be better off without the Big Apple sucking juice anyway); the rest of the New York State and especially the rest of the country should be opened up as the country overall is not at all experiencing the alleged 3x excess death count.

BTW, how is that anti-sprawl policy advocated by the suicidal/homicidal left working out?

jazz_music says

No

No excuses

Are you talking about the fact that Italy, France, and Spain - not including the rest of Western Europe or the British Isles - has more deaths than the USA?


You wouldn't try to compare a country of 45M, 60M, or 70M to one of 330M, when the US is almost twice as populous than all three combined, would you?

WookieMan says

Please present something to us that is true and not "fringe data" on this. It's all fringe data at this point and I think that's what you're missing. Hence why I link very little about this. Your other lines are all based on your "fringe data" so not sure the point.

Outbreaks always, always have a high death rate of the infected. The reasons are many: Goes undetected for long period of time before isolated as a unique diagnosis (because symptoms are similar to other diseases), No experience with treatments going decades back, need to figure out what cases were likely the disease BEFORE it was diagnosed as a new strain.

Until about a year later, when the collate all the data and realize the death rate was comparable to other similar diseases. This time next year, Covid-19 will be declared less deadly than a typical flu outbreak.

WookieMan says

What's the solution? Shut down one of the top five financial centers in the world indefinitely?

ThreeBays says

Not including the random add-back. Again, this is the total of all cause deaths from NVSS death certificates.

In other words, yes, you are including the add-backs for when the bodies were found and when the death certificates were issued, not when the people died.

Follow the trail yourself man.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/10/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-new-york-city.html
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

Not a penny for the lying grey trash paper.

ThreeBays says

Reality says

What are you trying to say? Do you just string together a bunch of numbers and pretend you are trying to express an idea?

Of course it's above your head.

In other words you can't explain what you wrote "17,200 is 0.25% of the 80% herd immunity level of the population. A very generous assumption." Why the alleged "excess death" divided by 80% of population, when the "excess death" number is wrong as it assumes no seasonal difference on top of making a simple math error, and the 80% herd immunity assumption would require immediate lifting of lock-downs. Why derive your 0.25% from those wildly unreliable numbers when all you needed was dividing total deaths by the total population to arrive close at your 0.25%? Seems to me you don't understand the numbers you clutch at random.



ThreeBays says

Keep on clutching at straws.

Not clutching at straws, but simple facts. No need for me to clutch at straws when you can't even do simple division and multiplication.

ThreeBays says

the social distancing worked better than expected.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52373888 Way better! Instead of a routine depression, we will get a global biblical famine! Win, win. eye roll

ThreeBays says

Contact tracing would let all the states move much faster here. Even if they detect just a fraction of cases it makes a big difference in how much the economy can open without flaring up.

Yeah.... no. I'm not going anywhere near where they're testing for this shit. Hospital, drive through site, clinics, etc.. That's my legal right to do so. And I also suppose we should start doing this contact tracing for influenza that has a vaccine? We've had deadly years of that. You understand this snowballs and takes away freedoms and basically is a tracking mechanism. We're already finding out these mother fuckers are checking phone GPS locations. I'm simply not okay with it and MANY others are not okay with that as well. I would not take a revolution or civil war off the table in all honesty.

There is no right NOT to get a virus in our country. You cannot squash other peoples freedoms because of an airborne virus that was botched at every level so far. Trump, state governor, CDC, WHO, etc. The discussion should be demographics. We are going to have staggering amounts of death over the next 20 years as the boomers age into the sweet spot. THEY are going to have to make accommodations for their health issues and living arrangements. Not me. That's not the way this works.

We're going back and forth on numbers of dead and cases blah, blah blah.... It simply doesn't matter. The models have been Wuhan bat shit crazy. People keep saying models this models that. Before this people were wanting to make trillion dollar legislation because the scientific community has been miserably wrong for decades on global warming. Blind faith and now people are pushing for more legislation and legality for masks, contact tracing, etc. It's right in front our face and people actively pushing for this, wanting the government to control them. Sick times.

And just keep wantonly ignoring the demographics. We have a large populous of old people coming to an age where they have many underlying conditions. Some of which they know about and others they don't. We cannot stop people from aging and dying through laws. So the answer is to legislate the other 60-70% of the nation? That's what this about and that's been my frustration with our back and forth. You can't just look at virus numbers and react ONLY to those numbers. That's what is happening.

The death rate for U.S. in 2019 was 8.782 deaths per 1000 people, a 1.12% increase from 2018.
We will see what, if any, increase there will be this year.

rd6B says

The death rate for U.S. in 2019 was 8.782 deaths per 1000 people, a 1.12% increase from 2018.
We will see what, if any, increase there will be this year.

My point is the focus on the overall numbers of deaths and politicizing it like this has been, not necessarily the rate. At some point out in the future we're going to have 200,000 deaths from the flu as the population grows. So what? I do think scientist/doctors understand this, but the media is intentionally or unintentionally weaponizing a stat that simply doesn't matter, overall number of deaths from a virus.

You have to account for other things in determining policy. We can't be irrational and make wide ranging and major decisions in the fear stage. We're in a fear stage because media is pushing the total number of deaths and most know that smart people will look at total deaths of other things and not take it seriously. Unfortunately I'd say maybe 20% of the population is even of average intelligence, so they hear the word pandemic and hourly updates on how many people are dying. This is big brother shit unfolding in front of us. But hey, contact tracing will maybe save a few unhealthy old people.

(not bitching at you rd6B, just ranting like I have been. Frustrated by this whole thing and it doesn't and won't physically affect me outside of the government's response).

ThreeBays says

Polling shows

Whatever you want it to show. Hillary was supposed to win in a landslide.