patrick.net

I can see that a rational analysis would have called for the stock market to fall, and still seems plausible.

But "the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" as they say.

Patrick says

I can see that a rational analysis would have called for the stock market to fall, and still seems plausible.

It's rational, but in normal cost areas, things are doing okay at worst all things considered. I'm sure there's more doom and gloom out in CA with the higher incomes and higher COL. I'd guess 7 in 10 people laid off in the midwest and south are making more money than they were employed in the fields hardest hit. Well maybe not oil, but that's one of the few.

August will be the month to watch going into September. Once that $600/wk dries up, people are going to want their jobs back and to open back up. If that doesn't happen, expect unrest from the commoners that has nothing to do with skin color for once. People want their money, even if it involves working for it.

If we hit say August 15th and states are still trying to lock back down, then we're in territory that gets scary. People can't work with kids at home. A month or two was one thing, but losing the $600/wk and having to take care of kids all day is a big deal. It would require another stimulus round or we're forced to completely open back up and deal with the consequences.

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Here is how I came across Patrick.net: https://abcnews.go.com/Nightline/story?id=3731415&page=1

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WookieMan says

If we hit say August 15th and states are still trying to lock back down

They are trying to further sink the economy so that even a slight improvement will make President Biden (and his unelectable Vice President) look brilliant and effective.

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ad says

WookieMan says

If we hit say August 15th and states are still trying to lock back down

They are trying to further sink the economy so that even a slight improvement will make President Biden (and his unelectable Vice President) look brilliant and effective.

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Biden won't be elected though. There were vocal people I knew for Hillary in 2016. All I hear is crickets for Biden right now. Most intelligent people understand that a virus has nothing to do with Trump.

Notice that even the left here don't even stick up for Biden. The Democrats are so divided within their own party that turnout is going to be a problem outside of CA, NY, IL, etc. We're under 4 months from an election against what the left deems to be Hitler. I'm in a purple county that should be important to Biden as I'm not certain IL can't be flipped in all seriousness. I've yet to see a single Biden sign. Hell, I haven't even seen one yet in the midwest that includes two trips up to WI. A super important state for Biden.

In '08 all I saw was Obama stickers, flags and graphics everywhere. Rural and urban. The Democrats don't believe in Biden and I'm still convinced he won't make it to the convention or election day.

The stock market is largely influenced by interest rates.

Evidently people think something else matters as much.

Some guys have new cash to invest; they are in the Philippines, Mexico, Singapore, China, etc.

They are going to invest it, not buy sucker CDs.
So, is it bonds or stocks?
Their decision is based on interest rates.

It's not complicated, but it is not interesting.
I just made $ with my Roku stock.
My Wells Fargo stock is still a mile underwater.
Buffet said he just loved Wells.

clambo says

Buffet said he just loved Wells.

I've always had a problem with Banking Stocks.

Just what is it that you own?

In the upside down world of banking, loans (debt) are assets and deposits (cash) are liabilities. Go ahead and call me stupid, Hipsters. Sticks and Stones. For investing, I just can't wrap my simpleton head around it.

Payback is a bitch and Fed chairman Powell is going to rain shit bombs on trump and trump's economy for all the ridicule his big mouth has dished out.
Over 9 Trillion has already been handed over to the banking/trading houses since 9/2019-3/2020, bonds bought and monetized by Powell and his buddies and the market flush with Fed money so the zombie business corporate leaches could sell their stock to retail and their bonds to the fed and be positioned and all set when the money flow is cut from the spigot... Federal Reserve, the most powerful corporations in the world and DNC are all globalist when the dots are connected and all are equal with the same goals ... Powell's moves have not been to save Trump and the markets in my opinion, but rather to save the entities I listed before the liquid runs dry and the cash is gutted.

Markets don’t seem rational right now. Or maybe news are just fake. So hard to tell what reality is.

BACAH I largely own mutual funds, but I have a few stocks.

A stock which I have bought a couple of times is Apple AAPL. The last time I bought it was before the 7:1 split and I am not buying it except for the shares the dividend buys for me.

In 2017 I inherited some shares of Wells Fargo WFC, Microsoft and some others.

I sold all but Microsoft and Wells Fargo, out of laziness I kept most of the WFC shares. I also believed the Buffet hype.

I sold a little bit of the Wells Fargo and bought Ailbaba, John Deere, and Roku.
Those are doing much better than the WFC I sold to buy them.

I don’t like owning stocks so much as mutual funds, except for Apple.

WookieMan says

It would require another stimulus round or we're forced to completely open back up and deal with the consequences.

OPEN BACK UP YOU SACKS OF FUCK!!!

Shaman says

Look, our economy was heavily based on service jobs already which is where we stashed the underclass, there to be our servants when we wished luxury and convenience. Now we have abandoned them and withdrawn to our castles to await the coming of the great vaccine and these people are left in the cold without a job and with the businesses that employed them folding by the thousand every day.
Now big corporations are frothing at the mouth to raise shareholder value by laying off white collar workers who survived the past three months working from home. Come September, they’ll have the green light. Come September, a whole fuck ton of teachers are also going to get the pink slip. And we will still be in a pandemic with media hyping the fear to the moon.
Think that will be good for the economy?
The stock market bounced back based on ONE CALCULATION! That we were going to have a V shaped recovery, and everything would be back to normal by summer or at least by Fall. As that...

Teachers are still teaching .... trump already said
Everyone is going back to school in the fall. Even CA schools are doing a hybrid schedule where teachers work full days and kids go halftime smaller classes. Not sure why that means teacher pink slips. If anything they will need more money and resources to prep things for Covid.

Just kidding.... by late September early October... schools will get shutdown with the first signs of flu season. Then the shit will truly hit the fan.

Whoever sold missed out on glorious gainZ

Once the election is over, virus drama will be over too.

BayArea says

Whoever sold missed out on glorious gainZ

- said so many Hipsters in April 1930

B.A.C.A.H. says

- said so many Hipsters in April 1930

Whether you like it, or not, the Fed will buy up the entire stock market if it has to, to support asset prices. It's a little more talented than the 1930's Fed, which has been attributed with causing the crash back then.

I dunno about you guys but I opened a coinbase account yesterday. I'm going to ever so slowly start shifting $ into crypto and physical gold and silver.

This isn't just to protect from the currency debasement going on but also safe harbor from the little fucking socialists coming up.

I'm not expecting to make much profit from it. I'll continue to make other investments for that. Just planning to start taking up some small positions that will grow over time that I might thank myself for later.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Fed will buy up the entire stock market if it has to

It's the bond market they are concerned about but yeah... I don't believe they'll get away with printing enough to buy the entire stock market which is considerably smaller. All these buys are support in some cases but also psychological pump priming in the hopes that you and I will buy.

Did anyone hear of that deal China made with Iran a week or so ago? They have a new military/energy/currency pact. It's small now yeah, but over time it's going to start crowding out the $ and this significantly weakens any sanctions we have on Iran right now regarding swift. I think this is partly why China doesn't care much about any retaliation related to Hong Kong. Their new financial center is going to be Shanghai.

The pact includes Russia as well.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

the Fed will buy up the entire stock market if it has to, to support asset prices

You mean like the JCB in the lost decades?

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just_adhom_preaching says

Did anyone hear of that deal China made with Iran a week or so ago? They have a new military/energy/currency pact. It's small now yeah, but over time it's going to start crowding out the $ and this significantly weakens any sanctions we have on Iran right now regarding swift. I think this is partly why China doesn't care much about any retaliation related to Hong Kong. Their new financial center is going to be Shanghai.

Yeah, it includes military and oil sales.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/China-Inks-Military-Deal-With-Iran-Under-Secretive-25-Year-Plan.html

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just_adhom_preaching says

Did anyone hear of that deal China made with Iran a week or so ago? They have a new military/energy/currency pact. It's small now yeah, but over time it's going to start crowding out the $ and this significantly weakens any sanctions we have on Iran right now regarding swift. I think this is partly why China doesn't care much about any retaliation related to Hong Kong. Their new financial center is going to be Shanghai.

Iranian! Oil! Burse!

Newbie123 says

Look into storing your crypto on your own hard wallet. It’s basically a cold storage that nobody can touch

AKA flashdrive.

Onvacation says

Newbie123 says

Look into storing your crypto on your own hard wallet. It’s basically a cold storage that nobody can touch

AKA flashdrive.

AKA "if it's bricked - kiss your money goodbye".

Newbie123 says

Exposure to Bitcoin and some of the top 10 crypto’s should be part of your diverse portfolio.

But first learn how idiotic crypto really is: https://patrick.net/post/1332913/2020-06-11-someone-paid-2-6-million-in-fees-to-move-134-worth-of-crypto-and-oops

ad says

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Here is how I came across Patrick.net: https://abcnews.go.com/Nightline/story?id=3731415&page=1

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Thanks, almost forgot about that.

clambo says

My Wells Fargo stock is still a mile underwater.
Buffet said he just loved Wells.

OK, Wells is way down probably due to all those impending mortgage defaults.

Maybe time to buy it? It depends on the exact numbers, but those seem kinda unknowable for me.

clambo says

I don’t like owning stocks so much as mutual funds

I'm the opposite. I strongly prefer individual stocks.

Mutual funds are rife with corruption you can't see, and then charge you money to do worse than the market, usually.

BayArea says

Whoever sold missed out on glorious gainZ

I got some of those glorious gains and then flinched and sold quite a bit. I'm still 1/3 cash and 2/3 stocks though.

SHOP is my big hope. I know it's not rational given their massive valuation relative to earnings, but damn, it's been so good to me so far.

BoomAndBustCycle says

Just kidding.... by late September early October... schools will get shutdown with the first signs of flu season. Then the shit will truly hit the fan.

I think that is quite likely, but it’s equally likely that they announce another ban on in person schooling just before school even starts! The teacher mafia is NOT wanting to go back to work.
They’ll get their wish, but not the way they wanted. Parents aren’t putting up with another semester or year of that unmitigated bullshit they called distance learning. Better to go to a true online school of which there are plenty available. A real online program teaches as it walks the kids through the material. It doesn’t just hold one disjointed zoom call and then assign a bunch of homework.

Newbie123 says

crypto and physical gold and silver

Not sure about crypto, but I do think that at least some physical gold and silver is a good hedge against the BLM cult getting into power.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/coronavirus-san-bernardino-schools-to-remain-online-when-new-school-year-starts/ar-BB16w38S

And San Bernadino county district just announced that schools would be online only. Other local districts have said hybrids or partial reopening but that will change as time goes on and the outbreak intensifies.

Newbie123 says

Look into storing your crypto on your own hard wallet. It’s basically a cold storage that nobody can touch.

This is how Bitcoin Billionaires store their stash:
To protect their bitcoin holdings, the brothers distributed snippets of a printout of their private keys across multiple safe deposits around the United States. This ensured that even if thieves got their hands on a fragment of the private key, the others would still be outside their reach.

EBGuy says

This is how Bitcoin Billionaires store their stash:
To protect their bitcoin holdings, the brothers distributed snippets of a printout of their private keys across multiple safe deposits around the United States. This ensured that even if thieves got their hands on a fragment of the private key, the others would still be outside their reach.

Meaning that one of the oft-touted benefit of crypto - quick access to your money and good liquidity - is effective neutered by this move. Also being tied to physical bank locations is not very good move for mobility and anonymity.

In the future will be the right time to buy when everything tanks and goes on sale. Patience will pay off. Guessing bottom is a year out?

@patrick Options is not that difficult and the risks are low. For example this works in your favor you can sell a put on a company you're eying and you know the intrinsic value/what you want to pay and just collect a premium and who knows maybe you'll get put the shares you wanted to buy in the first place.

Newbie123 says

I have zero interested in quick access.

Meaning that if the shit tanks you'll be not able to dump it on the way down and will be left holding the bag. Which is stupid.

This is crazy. Tesla continues to squeeze the shorts. I've never bought a Put Option in my life, but am tempted to give it a try at this point.

EBGuy says

This is crazy. Tesla continues to squeeze the shorts. I've never bought a Put Option in my life, but am tempted to give it a try at this point.

Huh, maybe that can be my revenge for missing out on the rise from 1000 to 1500. My risk is only the premium.

mich says

Options is not that difficult and the risks are low. For example this works in your favor you can sell a put on a company you're eying and you know the intrinsic value/what you want to pay and just collect a premium and who knows maybe you'll get put the shares you wanted to buy in the first place.

But then you have to keep the cash on hand for the life of the option and be ready to buy if they exercise the put. Not a big risk, but an inconvenience.

Patrick says

Huh, maybe that can be my revenge for missing out on the rise from 1000 to 1500. My risk is only the premium.

Tesla's market cap is now more than Toyota, GM, Ford and Chrysler/Fiat combined. Tempted to short 100 shares outright just for the thrill of it. Tesla's stock price at the beginning of the year was $1000 dollars lower....

Newbie123 says

I want to accumulate more, not sell or spend it

HODL2Z